The Basics of Trading on Margin

The importance of crosshair placement, why you're doing it wrong, and how to fix it.

The importance of crosshair placement, why you're doing it wrong, and how to fix it.

Valorant and the importance of crosshair placement.



Introduction

Hey guys, I'm Twix, and I'm back with another informative post, this time concerning the aspect of crosshair placement. Through this post I will be discussing the importance of crosshair placement within the tac shooter genre, going over the most common mistakes I see people make in my experience as a coach, and offering structured routines to remedy the majority of these mistakes. If you haven't read through any of my posts before ( I wouldn't they're too long ) I am an FPS player which mainly played CS:GO competitively, with around 7k hours and multiple level 10 faceit accounts and LAN wins in the past 5 years, who transitioned towards the end of my CS:GO days into being an FPS coach, I mainly worked with people trying to gain a competitive edge in CS, but later moved to coaching Apex players, and following the closed beta release of Valorant, I have been coaching Valorant players for the past few months, with unanimously positive feedback. If you haven't read my first post which is a comprehensive general guide for players looking to improve in Valorant, I highly recommend you look at it here before continuing on to this post. In relation to other qualifications / achievements, I have hit top 30 as hitscan DPS in Overwatch, maintained top 500 ranking in Apex ( PC ) for a couple of seasons, and hold numerous 1% rankings on various Kovaak's FPS Aim Trainer maps. My main goal in creating these posts is to contribute to the Valorant community by sharing my knowledge gained over 10k collective hours of FPS experience ( mainly Tactical fps ) and hopefully help the people reading my posts improve and gain that competitive edge they need to progress into their desired ranking. For those of you interested in learning more about my coaching service, or looking for a community of Valorant players looking to improve, I will link my Discord server at the end of this post.

Why is crosshair placement important?


If I was asked about the importance of consistent crosshair placement in games such as PUBG, Apex, Overwatch, Fortnite, etc. I would probably answer by saying that while it's beneficial to maintain solid crosshair placement, it's by no means the most important aspect in relation to performing well in those games, in tactical shooters however, it's a whole different story. Tactical shooters are low TTK ( time to kill ) games, and for the most part, a single bullet to the head is enough to eliminate a player, this means that in contrast to AFPS games, or games like Overwatch or Apex, which have a much higher TTK, first shot accuracy is of extreme importance in Valorant, inevitably leading to the fact that crosshair placement is also extremely important. In a game with higher TTK, even if your first shot accuracy isn't perfect in an aim duel, you can win the fight if you land more shots on the opposing player over x amount of time that you trade with them, while in Valorant, whoever needs to make the least amount of adjustment to their crosshair when engaging in a 1v1 scenario wins the exchange. It doesn't matter if your raw aim is out of this world, even if you have the most precise flicks known to the FPS community, if your crosshair placement is sub-optimal, you will lose vs. someone with consistent crosshair placement, this is simply due to the fact that all they need to do, is click once your head moves into their crosshair, often without even needing to move their mouse. Crosshair placement may very well be the most important aspect in relation to gunplay and generally the mechanical aspect of tac shooters such as CS:GO or Valorant, as it's the deciding factor in the majority of aim duels.

Common mistakes


A large amount of players tend to underestimate the importance of crosshair placement in Valorant, and especially the underlying complexity of maintaining consistency in that context. People think that all you need to do to maintain solid crosshair placement is aim high enough to hit headshots, meaning that the only factor that affects crosshair placement is vertical positioning, others still stick to making their main source of information on game improvement being players who make statements as un-informative and vague as "just click heads", my main goal is to break down and explain the multiple factors that go into proper crosshair placement. Lets start with the basics:

Vertical Positioning:
As mentioned above, one of the elements which ties into crosshair placement is vertical positioning. this is the set distance that you need to position your crosshair at in relation to the ground to be able to align your crosshair's horizontal axis with player model head-level. The good thing about vertical positioning, is that you can get accustomed to the head level that the player models have in Valorant quite rapidly, as the hitbox sizes in this game are identical, meaning you can always use the ground as a point of reference to determine where the enemy player's head would be.
In Valorant, the head level always remains a set distance from the ground
In order to train your general ability to place your crosshair at the correct height, try to make a habit out of constantly reminding yourself to place your crosshair at head level, regardless of where you are or what you're doing on the map. What I mean by this, is that even if there isn't any imminent threat of enemy players peeking you, try to keep constantly keep your crosshair at head level, the more time you spend doing this, the faster it will become a habit and become something you do subconsciously, without having to actively focus on the action. This habit allows you to build muscle-memory during otherwise useless down-time, another way to do this is to track your teammate's heads with your crosshair while rotating, leaving spawn etc.
While vertical positioning is something that people get used to relatively easily, I have come across a recurring issue among the VODs of people I coach, and that is that people generally struggle with adapting the vertical component of their crosshair's position to varying points of elevation. Here's an image to help you visualize a scenario where this could be an issue:
Peeking C Long, Positions marked: Cubby ( right ), Platform ( left ), back-site ( back )
In the image above I am peeking into C back-site from C long on the map 'Haven', I have highlighted three different positions / angles where an enemy could potentially peak from in an in-game reenactment of this scenario, Platform, Cubby, and back-site. What you'll notice is that these positions all have different points of elevation, meaning that while using the ground as reference will allow me to maintain my crosshair at head-level if someone peeks my position from ground level on C site, in order to clear cubby and platform, I would need to adjust my crosshair accordingly, using their lower levels as a reference for where the head-level position would be in those angles.
Unfortunately, if you are struggling with this due to the fact that you aren't familiar with the map layout yet, the only thing that will remedy your situation is more time spent playing the game, if however, your issue stems from a mechanical inability, meaning that your mouse control isn't good enough to allow you to make such adjustments comfortably, the routine provided later in the guide may help you get past that issue.

Horizontal Positioning:
Just as with vertical positioning, horizontal positioning is pretty self-explanatory in terms of it's function. Knowing at what height to position your crosshair at in relation to the environment is far easier to do than knowing where to position it on a horizontal axis, the reasoning behind this is that with vertical placement you will always have the ground or lower level of the object the opponent is standing on as a point of reference which allows you to instantly know at what height head-level is. When focusing on the horizontal aspect of crosshair placement, there isn't a set point of reference at all times; Sometimes you need to hold wide angles, sometimes you need to move along with the object you're playing against, and sometimes you need to pre-aim to swing effectively, all this variability makes it much harder for a newer player to grasp crosshair placement and horizontal positioning is just as crucial as vertical positioning if not even more important.
A very common mistake which I see a lot of in the VODs I review as a coach, is newer players holding angles too tightly, meaning that they're playing in a position where they anticipate an enemy push and are waiting for the engagement, and their crosshair is a position where it's hugging the edge of the wall the enemy will peek from. Here is a visual representation of what I'm talking about:

Example of incorrect horizontal placement
In the image above, I'm holding an angle where if someone crosses moving parallel to the wall I'm looking at, I'll have under 50 ms to react, my crosshair is so close to the edge of the wall that I will need to click my LMB the milli-second I see the enemy. By holding this angle, chances are that by the time I click the enemy will have already crossed to the left of my crosshair resulting in a miss and most likely my death; It would take inhuman reaction times for anyone to hit a player while holding like this, especially if the enemy player is swinging. Instead, you should allow some distance from your crosshair to the edge of the angle you're holding, allowing yourself to spot the enemy's player model, and then time your click effectively. Here is a visual representation of correct crosshair placement while holding the same angle:

Example of correct horizontal placement
As you can see, in the image above I am allowing for some space between the wall and my crosshair, giving me a significantly longer time window to spot an enemy player and react. Holding an angle that's too "tight" would mean I need to make a larger adjustment to hit the enemy, and therefore I increase my margin of error due to vertical overshoot ( see below ). There are exceptions to the rule when it comes to the distance you need to hold at, if the angle you are holding only allows forward movement ( into your crosshair ) you can hold a narrow line of sight. If you are clearing an angle ( moving along it to check for enemies ) and you are the agressor, you can hold tight and move along with the wall / LOS to allow for a faster reaction if you spot an enemy during your movement. If you are the agressor and you want to swing into an angle that you believe / know an enemy is holding, it is sometimes optimal to pre-aim, meaning you position your crosshair in a way where without moving your mouse it will be aimed at the enemy's head once you swing out the angle.

Vertical Offset:
The final common issue I would like to bring up which ties into both crosshair placement and horizontal click-timing, is something I call "vertical offset" or "vertical overshoot", this is a player's inability to move his crosshair horizontally while maintaining the same vertical placement. Vertical offset is a big issue when it comes to switching angles or flicking horizontally, I have seen many scenarios where a player is holding an angle properly with their crosshair at a pixel-perfect vertical position in relation to head level, only to make a 30 degree turn to check a different angle and end up shooting at an enemy's chest and losing the duel. Usually, the larger the movement, the more the player's crosshair deviates vertically. Here is a depiction of what vertical offset / overshooting looks like in-game:

Example of margin of error caused by vertical offset / overshooting
In the image above the green dot is where the crosshair should end up in an ideal scenario while flicking from it's current position to the target dummy, while the green lines represent a theoretical margin of error for overshooting. Fortunately for people that face this issue, I have come up with multiple Kovaak's maps and firing range excercises to help combat it and largely reduce your margin of error when moving your crosshair / flicking horizontally.

Settings: What sensitivity / crosshair should I use?


This part of the post discusses a topic which is highly subjective, both the sensitivity you use and the crosshair you use are something preference-based that you should decide upon on your own, the reason I'm adding this section into the post is for players which are newer to the tac-shooter genre; There are a few guidelines that will help them narrow down the settings that work the best for them.
First off, don't by any means copy your favorite pro's config, just because something works for a professional player that has probably spent well above 10,000 hours playing FPS games and decided upon their ideal sensitivity and crosshair within that massive period of time, doesn't mean that it's going to work for you, use whatever you're most comfortable with. Other than individual preference, and having gotten used to their sensitivity, the Pros you watch may be using gear which feels different at their sensitivity setting. A lighter mouse, faster mouse-pad, and faster feet can feel very different in terms of mouse movement, even if you're playing on the same sensitivity value on paper. In relation to grip-styles and what mice are ideal for each hand size, make sure to check out my first post in this sub before moving forward with this guide, as playing on hardware that caters to your individual preferences plays an important role in increasing your mechanical potential.

Sensitivity:
As I stated in the paragraph above, sensitivity is something quite subjective and while there's no general rule as to which single sens value is superior, Valorant and CS:GO professionals tend to stick to e-dpi or cm/360 much lower than professional players in other titles and FPS subgenres. Your e-dpi is your in-game sensitivity value multiplied by your mouse's DPI setting. The average e-dpi used by Valorant professionals is around 250 e-dpi, which would be a value of 0.625 in-game @ 400 DPI, or around 50 cm/360.

Pro player & Streamer sensitivity settings (e-dpi)
cm/360 is a universal format for sensitivity measurement, it's the amount of centimeters you need to move your mouse in order to perform a full rotation. This is the format adopted within aimer communities due to the simple fact that you asking someone "what sensitivity do you play on?" And them responding with "1.5 in CSGO" is pretty useless information as they could be playing at any DPI range, and you don't necessarily know what each CSGO sens corresponds to in relation to physical movement, or even movement in other games. "e-dpi" solves the issue of different DPI x Sens measurements within the same game, but the cm/360 format is easily transferable from title to title.
The reason professional players in the tac shooter genre use lower sens on average, is due to the fact that in contrast with other FPS games, tac shooters don't require larger or extended movements, instead they require you to hold or clear angles while maintaining stable crosshair placement, the least adjustments you need to make to your crosshair's position on your screen, the better your "aim" will be. The majority of players I have coached report that it has been significantly easier for them to maintain consistent crosshair placement at lower sensitivities. For newer players that still haven't found a "main" sensitivity that they feel comfortable on, I would recommend for them to stick to the range of 200-300 e-dpi, while for more experienced players coming from CS or other similar games, I would recommend a similar range with a higher cap, at 200-400 e-dpi ( very few professional players play above 300 e-dpi ).

Crosshair settings:
This is something even more subjective and preference-based than sensitivity even, so what I will do in this section is simply post my own settings which I use for my in-game crosshair, and explain why I picked each value within the menu.

Crosshair Settings
So, lets break my crosshair down setting by settings:
  • Color: I use "Cyan" as it stands out quite well for me with my current color settings, any color that doesn't match your enemy outline color works perfectly fine here.
  • Inner Line Opacity: This setting basically determines how see through your crosshair will be, I like setting mine at "1" as It makes the crosshair stand out more.
  • Inner Line Thickness: I set this to "1" which is the lowest value, a lot of professional players like to use "2", I think setting the value to "1" makes it easier to align your crosshair with heads or with other objects in the environment, it is also less obstructive, so I highly recommend either this or "2" to newer players
  • Inner Line Offset: This setting determines how large the gap is in your crosshair, I like setting this to "1" as the gap is as small as possible without disappearing, larger gaps make it more difficult to determine where the exact center of your screen is, which can act as a hnderance in your first shot accuracy at longer range engagements.
  • Movement & Firing Error: These settings just turn your crosshair into a dynamic crosshair and make the gap widen significantly while moving or shooting respectively in order to give you a visual representation of how the innacuracy factor works. Useless and distracting, would highly suggest that you keep these both off unless you're very new and still don't understand how movement / spray accuracy works.
  • Outer Lines: Everything is off here, I don't think playing with outer lines provides any benefit whatsoever and it's an extra distraction.

Crosshair Placement Improvement Routine:

A large portion of improving your crosshair placement is based on simply playing the game more, crosshair placement is largely based on muscle memory, part of having good crosshair placement is simply based on having experience in-game allowing it to become a subconscious habit, and the rest is based on your ability to anticipate player model movement and learn to make horizontal movements without simultaneously your crosshair vertically. The routine I will provide is not only a great way to work on your crosshair placement, but also highly beneficial to the click-timing aspect of your aim, which is basically the only element of aiming required in Valorant, as good tracking is unecessary in such a low TTK game. If you are already training using a daily routine on Kovaak's ( as you should be ) you can just implement this into your daily scenarios.

Kovaaks:
( These are all maps which require you to make horizontal movements without overshooting vertically, thus good aim training for those struggling with crosshair placement, see my other posts for a larger variety of Kovaaks maps )

  • 1 wall 2 targets horizontal - 10 minutes ( focus on your flicks, work on hitting both targets in the same movement, not pausing in between )
  • Valorant Small flicks - 10 minutes ( Great routine as head level is that of Valorant, and vertical deviation will cause you to miss, forcing you to maintain head level as you play through it )
  • PatTarget Switch small - 10 minutes ( Works on your ability to swap from one target to another while maintaining head level crosshair placement, keep LMB held while playing, only go for heads )

HSDM:

  • Valorant doesn't currently offer it's own deathmatch servers, therefore the next best thing is practicing in CS:GO. HSDM is a headshot only modifier for community FFA servers in CS:GO. To access these maps go to "Community Server Browser" and simply type in "HSDM", any server with decent population will do ( preferably 128 tick ). Playing FFA on headshot only forces you to maintain head-level crosshair placement as body shots don't count. I advise going for taps rather than spraying, as it limits the RNG, also spraying in CS:GO isn't transferable to Valorant as a mechanic. Make it a challenge for yourself to maintain positive K/D while playing. Use the AK in rifle servers, and the USP-S in pistol servers.

Firing Range:

  • Set the target dummy position to static, and practice your click timing by only going for the targets furthest to the left and furthest to the right interchangeably, do this for around 10 minutes.
  • Play Spike Rush and set it to hard. When set on "Hard" the AI will one shot you as soon as you peek if it has seen you, and one shot you after around half a second if you shift-peek it. Pretty decent warmup in relation to crosshair placement as you will die every single time if you aren't instantly headshotting the targets the moment you peek. Play this for another 10 minutes.

Link to my Discord server for further questions / coaching inquiries:

---------- https://discord.gg/6ZYVZ6x

New twitter : https://mobile.twitter.com/Twix_v2
submitted by Hi_Im_TwiX to VALORANT [link] [comments]

The Ballad of Big Dick Vick: Onions, Futures, and the American Dream

Hello, idiots
It's me, Fuzzy. Today, we're taking a short break from your regularly scheduled educational programming to talk about futures contracts, the very first meme stock, and, more importantly, the original autist icon. No, it's not about u/jartek putting up the big black monolith for you to hoot at in 2012. We're turning back the clock for some storytime about why you can trade futures on just about anything in America - other than onions (or receipts on box office returns, but that's a whole other fucking story). Don't worry, you screeching nerds in the back; I'll explain what futures are along the way.
"Why should I give a shit, Fuzzy?". Because (i) a little history of markets is good to have in your back pocket (ii) you probably don't know what a futures contract is, so this might do you some good and (iii) we're all fucking bored in quarantine and it's not like either of us have anything better to do. You really think I'd be doing this shit if Opening Day wasn't cancelled and half my clients weren't going fucking tits up like u/controlthenarrative? (seriously - you haven't lived 'til you've seen a CFO 'guh'). Plus, it's a great anecdote to spin the next time the cute barista mixing your decaf rainbow-spinkle frap with extra syrup looks bored enough to listen to you for more than five seconds (or, you know, tell it to your wife's boyfriend, your body pillow - YMMV). I'd actually been saving the full version for u/pokimane. It's that good. But, I'm bored, and I feel sufficiently generous to share it with you now. If you don't care, you can go back to beating your meat to your RH tickers. I can't tell you what to do.
Let's get started.
Futures For Dummies
Before I explain how all this works, a little history. Like many great ideas - sushi, Nintendo, used lingerie vending machines - futures originated with the Japs. Some smartass farmers in Osaka in the 1700s started trading rice on credit months in advance of the harvest in order (I assume) to hedge against some rogue samurai coming to take their shit. I don't know, I'm not a fucking historian. Anyway. This idea took off pretty fucking fast once people realized they could use this to both protect against losses and project future prices / demand for the shit they made and soon our tea-drinking cousins in Ye Olde England were doing it for whatever they make there - wool and Wensleydale? Who cares. And then it blew up in Chicago of all places (I guess because there are lots of farmers in the Midwest), and the Mercantile Exchange was born. Shoutout to the Second City (more than just the home of a murder hotel and shitty baseball teams). Today you can trade futures in just about anything but the roots (and most important contracts) are still in commodities.
Anyway. So what is a futures contract, exactly? It's basically like an option contract with a couple of extra features. Like an option, a futures contract is a derivative - an instrument the value of which is derived (hence, derivative) from the price of an underlying asset. As we all hopefully know, options give you a *right* - but not an obligation - to buy or sell particular shit at a particular price on a particular date. Futures, on the other hand, *oblige* each party to the contract to deliver the goods or cash on the settlement date (depends on the exchange you're trading at - some allow for cash settlement, some don't). What does this mean for the individual trader? Consider the purchase of a naked put/call option. Your potential loss is limited to the premium you paid for each contract in the first place. You buy up front, and you either print tendies or you hold the bag depending on which way the price of the equity moves - red lines or green lines. You don't need to pony anything up on the expiration date if you don't want to.
Futures expose you to a *much greater* risk (and reward) than options because you're signing up to deliver X product at $Y no matter what happens to the price of X product in the meantime. See, futures are highly leveraged. Instead of paying RH the $0.01 to buy a $SEAS death put against Ol' Fuzzy's advice, the broker asks you to put up a certain percentage of the contract up front and bear the risk and rewards of the fluctuations yourself over the life of the contract. You only pay a small portion of the price up front - whatever the broker determines is appropriate. It could be 10x or 20x (even 25 or 30x for really weird assets) less than the actual value of the contract. The value of your contract is then marked-to-market on an hourly, daily or weekly basis depending on the asset (this means that the price is adjusted based on the actual value of the underlying asset). As the price of the commodity (say, corn or whatever) fluctuates, your account gets debited or credited with the movement depending on your position on the contract. If it moves in the wrong direction, you need to post additional margin. If it moves in the right direction, you get a credit. You can either hold the contract 'til expiration and cash-settle, settle for the quantity of the actual shit you agreed to buy, or you can create a synthetic settlement early by opening an inverse position and netting the profits. It's up to you.
There's a whole lot more technical shit that goes into it that I'm not going to bother with here. I'm sure some nerd or JV trader will start acting smart in the comments and I'll be forced to flex my mind muscles on you and explain it in more detail. But I'll save that for later because that's not why we're here tonight. We're here to talk about.......
The Ballad of Big Dick Vick (Or: Why You Can't Trade Onion Futures Anymore)
Imagine you're some podunk fucking farmer in the 1940s. You know what sucks? Your life. Mildred ain't putting out after your fifth kid died of consumption and everyone you know is either starving to death in the Dust Bowl because shit won't grow (shoutout James 'OG' Agee) or they're dead fighting Nazis in France. What could possibly get you through the day? Onions. They're cheap, easy to grow, and you can tie 'em on your belt (befitting the style of the time). Onions were so important to the economy at this point in American history that they became the most heavily traded commodity in the country. In fact, onion contracts made up 25% of daily futures volume at the Mercantile Exchange. Truly, they were the meme stock of their time. Amazing, right? Anyway.
Enter Vincent W. Kosuga - Big Dick Vick to his friends (*may not be a real nickname). Like many of you autists, Vick was fucking poor. He had a failing celery farm and a fat wife, and that was about it. He was also a certified fucking maniac who always carried a gun and flew a home-made plane in his spare time. He was a character and a shitty farmer. But the man had a dream. A dream to make fuck-you money and give it to the Pope (seriously - the 50s were a wild time). So Vick heard about some fucking autist who'd made his fortune trading wheat futures and he figured 'well shit, I can do that'. Spoiler alert: he fucking couldn't. He nearly bankrupted himself - he got so poor that he couldn't even afford to grow celery anymore and all the seeds he could afford to buy were... onions. Yep. Onions.
This was Vick's lightbulb moment. A shitload of onions were grown in his neck of the woods, but in these pre-internet days, there was a time lag between the knowledge of available volume and the market's price, because the market was a long way away from the onions. So he and a pal called Sam (who owned the local grocery store and vegetable supplier) realized by travelling to Chicago themselves, they could use their insider knowledge of onion supply to bet big or short on the prices with an advantage over most other traders. They got pretty fucking rich pretty fucking fast doing this. But for Big Dick Vick, it wasn't enough. The man didn't just want to get rich anymore. He wanted to be the Onion King. So in the fall of 1955, Vick and Sam used their winnings to buy up virtually every long onions future available on the market, and demanded physical settlement, not cash. So far, so simple right. The hook? They also bought every short contract. Normally, this would be a recipe for playing yourself. With natural market forces and/or cash settlement, at best you net off with a small profit. But when you control the entire supply of the commodity? You can flood the market and crash the price, and make a fucking killing. And that's exactly what they did. There were fucking onions everywhere in Chicago. They started dumping them in the Chicago River but that clogged it up so they just let them rot in the street. If you've been to Chicago, you know what I'm talking about and that I'm not throwing any shade on your fine town, but it takes a lot to make Chicago smell worse than it already does - and the onions fucking did it. Onions, for a brief time, were literally worth less than the bags they came wrapped in. You could buy 50lbs of onions for a dime. People estimate Big Dick Vick made nearly $100 million off this trade - which was big fucking money in the 50's. But more importantly, Big Dick Vick pulled a big short 50 years before Margot Robbie got wet explaining to you (incorrectly) how CDOs work. I don't know how else to explain this to you - it's the only time in the history of capitalism that one man ever successfully cornered a commodity market. Shoutout BDV.
Naturally, the government didn't like this. Neither did other onion farmers - considering Vick bankrupted most of them. They lobbied Congress who set up a Senate Committee into Big Dick Vick's onion monopoly. So what did BDV do? He told a Senate Committee hearing that "if it's against the law to make money, I'm guilty". Other than that, he denied all responsibility, and they couldn't do anything about it - he hadn't broken any laws. He cucked the government and all of his competitors in one fell swoop. He cashed his profits, moved home and opened a restaurant called The Jolly Onion. He wound up donating most of his cash to the Catholic Church, and he got his wish of meeting the Pope (he actually met three of them over the course of his life). In the meantime, the government didn't want to get cucked by him again, so they passed the Onion Futures Act - which specifically outlaws trading onion futures, and still exists in law today.
TL;DR - long $ONIONS, short $GOVT, veggie printer goes grrrrrrow.
*EDIT 1* - Many of you have recommended NPR's Planet Money episode on this topic. I am not a listener to Planet Money but I had a chance to catch up with this tonight and I enjoyed it immensely (although it is light on for technical detail). Good for a listen if you are interested. Shoutout to those who recommended it.
submitted by fuzzyblankeet to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Shoot down my swing trading plan for 2021? Details inside

Looking for feedback & advice on my plan for swing trading in 2021.
Concepts:
Background:
Doubts:
Looking to know:
Thanks!
submitted by unwitting_hungarian to stocks [link] [comments]

You are a foot pic merchant

you start with just posting them on feet subreddits and then plugging your onlyfans, and that leads to a small trickle of income....
but ever the economist, eventually you start to notice market inefficiencies. Sellers on some sites are offering their feet pics for prices below what buyers are putting forth on others. You realize that connecting buyers to sellers with a negative bid-ask spread lets you scalp profit, and so the merchant of feet pics is born.
You buy feet content from discount sellers and then sell it to high-cash buyers, pocketing your margin. Soon you have twenty to thirty dummy accounts on both the buying and selling side, as they serve a vital purpose. A buyer messages one of your fake seller accounts asking for feet pics in a purple shoe with candy crush on an ipad in the background. You use your dummy buyer account to message a real seller to find their rate. They reply $50. You tell the buyer it'll be $60.
At night, you might begin to feel as though you're scamming people, or as though your work is amoral... but you'll look to the new canopy bed you've bought, and feel the high-count egyptian fiber blankets that wrap around you, and you'll feel all this in your brand-new silken pajamas that go nicely with your new mercedes in the driveway, and that's when you'll realize that it's not scamming... your value that you provide is connecting two parties who had a shared, intersecting interest. The market only works if everything is aligned, and that's precisely the service you now offer. You've unified supply and demand, fastening one end of the business to the other. You've restored balance to the feetpics commodities exchange, and, with it, ushered in a new era of trading prosperity. Your connection is value, and thus...
you profit forevermore.
submitted by MaybeAMuggle to copypasta [link] [comments]

Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)

Hello, dummies
It's your old pal, Fuzzy.
As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great.
What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. I do my bit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post.
That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way.
We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps.
Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy.
TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle.
Ready? Let's get started.
1. The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life
The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows:
Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself.
Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part.
You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus.
That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it.
Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets?
2. A Hedging Taxonomy
The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now.
(i) Swaps
A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one.
Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered.
The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game.
I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging.
There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested.
Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure).
(ii) Forwards
A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me.
Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways.
People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances.
These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them.
(iii) Collars
No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray!
To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts.
(3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs
You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years.
First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA.
Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire.
Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking?
Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama.
Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details.
I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here.
Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post.
*EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
submitted by fuzzyblankeet to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

A redditor explains how to get rich off of feet pics

you start with just posting them on feet subreddits and then plugging your onlyfans, and that leads to a small trickle of income.... but ever the economist, eventually you start to notice market inefficiencies. Sellers on some sites are offering their feet pics for prices below what buyers are putting forth on others. You realize that connecting buyers to sellers with a negative bid-ask spread lets you scalp profit, and so the merchant of feet pics is born. You buy feet content from discount sellers and then sell it to high-cash buyers, pocketing your margin. Soon you have twenty to thirty dummy accounts on both the buying and selling side, as they serve a vital purpose. A buyer messages one of your fake seller accounts asking for feet pics in a purple shoe with candy crush on an ipad in the background. You use your dummy buyer account to message a real seller to find their rate. They reply $50. You tell the buyer it'll be $60. At night, you might begin to feel as though you're scamming people, or as though your work is amoral... but you'll look to the new canopy bed you've bought, and feel the high-count egyptian fiber blankets that wrap around you, and you'll feel all this in your brand-new silken pajamas that go nicely with your new mercedes in the driveway, and that's when you'll realize that it's not scamming... your value that you provide is connecting two parties who had a shared, intersecting interest. The market only works if everything is aligned, and that's precisely the service you now offer. You've unified supply and demand, fastening one end of the business to the other. You've restored balance to the feetpics commodities exchange, and, with it, ushered in a new era of trading prosperity. Your connection is value, and thus...
submitted by aman120904 to copypasta [link] [comments]

Feet

you start with just posting them on feet subreddits and then plugging your onlyfans, and that leads to a small trickle of income....
but ever the economist, eventually you start to notice market inefficiencies. Sellers on some sites are offering their feet pics for prices below what buyers are putting forth on others. You realize that connecting buyers to sellers with a negative bid-ask spread lets you scalp profit, and so the merchant of feet pics is born.
You buy feet content from discount sellers and then sell it to high-cash buyers, pocketing your margin. Soon you have twenty to thirty dummy accounts on both the buying and selling side, as they serve a vital purpose. A buyer messages one of your fake seller accounts asking for feet pics in a purple shoe with candy crush on an ipad in the background. You use your dummy buyer account to message a real seller to find their rate. They reply $50. You tell the buyer it'll be $60.
At night, you might begin to feel as though you're scamming people, or as though your work is amoral... but you'll look to the new canopy bed you've bought, and feel the high-count egyptian fiber blankets that wrap around you, and you'll feel all this in your brand-new silken pajamas that go nicely with your new mercedes in the driveway, and that's when you'll realize that it's not scamming... your value that you provide is connecting two parties who had a shared, intersecting interest. The market only works if everything is aligned, and that's precisely the service you now offer. You've unified supply and demand, fastening one end of the business to the other. You've restored balance to the feetpics commodities exchange, and, with it, ushered in a new era of trading prosperity. Your connection is value, and thus...
you profit forevermore.
submitted by PapperMairoo to copypasta [link] [comments]

Found on r/assholedesign on a thread about selling feet pics

you start with just posting them on feet subreddits and then plugging your onlyfans, and that leads to a small trickle of income....
but ever the economist, eventually you start to notice market inefficiencies. Sellers on some sites are offering their feet pics for prices below what buyers are putting forth on others. You realize that connecting buyers to sellers with a negative bid-ask spread lets you scalp profit, and so the merchant of feet pics is born.
You buy feet content from discount sellers and then sell it to high-cash buyers, pocketing your margin. Soon you have twenty to thirty dummy accounts on both the buying and selling side, as they serve a vital purpose. A buyer messages one of your fake seller accounts asking for feet pics in a purple shoe with candy crush on an ipad in the background. You use your dummy buyer account to message a real seller to find their rate. They reply $50. You tell the buyer it'll be $60.
At night, you might begin to feel as though you're scamming people, or as though your work is amoral... but you'll look to the new canopy bed you've bought, and feel the high-count egyptian fiber blankets that wrap around you, and you'll feel all this in your brand-new silken pajamas that go nicely with your new mercedes in the driveway, and that's when you'll realize that it's not scamming... your value that you provide is connecting two parties who had a shared, intersecting interest. The market only works if everything is aligned, and that's precisely the service you now offer. You've unified supply and demand, fastening one end of the business to the other. You've restored balance to the feetpics commodities exchange, and, with it, ushered in a new era of trading prosperity. Your connection is value, and thus...
you profit forevermore.
submitted by allmyfreindsarememes to copypasta [link] [comments]

how to make a living off of feet pics

you start with just posting them on feet subreddits and then plugging your onlyfans, and that leads to a small trickle of income....
but ever the economist, eventually you start to notice market inefficiencies. Sellers on some sites are offering their feet pics for prices below what buyers are putting forth on others. You realize that connecting buyers to sellers with a negative bid-ask spread lets you scalp profit, and so the merchant of feet pics is born.
You buy feet content from discount sellers and then sell it to high-cash buyers, pocketing your margin. Soon you have twenty to thirty dummy accounts on both the buying and selling side, as they serve a vital purpose. A buyer messages one of your fake seller accounts asking for feet pics in a purple shoe with candy crush on an ipad in the background. You use your dummy buyer account to message a real seller to find their rate. They reply $50. You tell the buyer it'll be $60.
At night, you might begin to feel as though you're scamming people, or as though your work is amoral... but you'll look to the new canopy bed you've bought, and feel the high-count egyptian fiber blankets that wrap around you, and you'll feel all this in your brand-new silken pajamas that go nicely with your new mercedes in the driveway, and that's when you'll realize that it's not scamming... your value that you provide is connecting two parties who had a shared, intersecting interest. The market only works if everything is aligned, and that's precisely the service you now offer. You've unified supply and demand, fastening one end of the business to the other. You've restored balance to the feetpics commodities exchange, and, with it, ushered in a new era of trading prosperity. Your connection is value, and thus...
you profit forevermore.
submitted by jacksonsprite to copypasta [link] [comments]

How to sell feet pics to men on the internet

you start with just posting them on feet subreddits and then plugging your onlyfans, and that leads to a small trickle of income....
but ever the economist, eventually you start to notice market inefficiencies. Sellers on some sites are offering their feet pics for prices below what buyers are putting forth on others. You realize that connecting buyers to sellers with a negative bid-ask spread lets you scalp profit, and so the merchant of feet pics is born.
You buy feet content from discount sellers and then sell it to high-cash buyers, pocketing your margin. Soon you have twenty to thirty dummy accounts on both the buying and selling side, as they serve a vital purpose. A buyer messages one of your fake seller accounts asking for feet pics in a purple shoe with candy crush on an ipad in the background. You use your dummy buyer account to message a real seller to find their rate. They reply $50. You tell the buyer it'll be $60.
At night, you might begin to feel as though you're scamming people, or as though your work is amoral... but you'll look to the new canopy bed you've bought, and feel the high-count egyptian fiber blankets that wrap around you, and you'll feel all this in your brand-new silken pajamas that go nicely with your new mercedes in the driveway, and that's when you'll realize that it's not scamming... your value that you provide is connecting two parties who had a shared, intersecting interest. The market only works if everything is aligned, and that's precisely the service you now offer. You've unified supply and demand, fastening one end of the business to the other. You've restored balance to the feetpics commodities exchange, and, with it, ushered in a new era of trading prosperity. Your connection is value, and thus...
you profit forevermore.
submitted by MrTezzie to copypasta [link] [comments]

How to profit from feet pics

you start with just posting them on feet subreddits and then plugging your onlyfans, and that leads to a small trickle of income.... but ever the economist, eventually you start to notice market inefficiencies. Sellers on some sites are offering their feet pics for prices below what buyers are putting forth on others. You realize that connecting buyers to sellers with a negative bid-ask spread lets you scalp profit, and so the merchant of feet pics is born. You buy feet content from discount sellers and then sell it to high-cash buyers, pocketing your margin. Soon you have twenty to thirty dummy accounts on both the buying and selling side, as they serve a vital purpose. A buyer messages one of your fake seller accounts asking for feet pics in a purple shoe with candy crush on an ipad in the background. You use your dummy buyer account to message a real seller to find their rate. They reply $50. You tell the buyer it'll be $60. At night, you might begin to feel as though you're scamming people, or as though your work is amoral... but you'll look to the new canopy bed you've bought, and feel the high-count egyptian fiber blankets that wrap around you, and you'll feel all this in your brand-new silken pajamas that go nicely with your new mercedes in the driveway, and that's when you'll realize that it's not scamming... your value that you provide is connecting two parties who had a shared, intersecting interest. The market only works if everything is aligned, and that's precisely the service you now offer. You've unified supply and demand, fastening one end of the business to the other. You've restored balance to the feetpics commodities exchange, and, with it, ushered in a new era of trading prosperity. Your connection is value, and thus... you profit forevermore.
submitted by 15potatoes to copypasta [link] [comments]

how to make money off feet pics

you start with just posting them on feet subreddits and then plugging your onlyfans, and that leads to a small trickle of income....
but ever the economist, eventually you start to notice market inefficiencies. Sellers on some sites are offering their feet pics for prices below what buyers are putting forth on others. You realize that connecting buyers to sellers with a negative bid-ask spread lets you scalp profit, and so the merchant of feet pics is born.
You buy feet content from discount sellers and then sell it to high-cash buyers, pocketing your margin. Soon you have twenty to thirty dummy accounts on both the buying and selling side, as they serve a vital purpose. A buyer messages one of your fake seller accounts asking for feet pics in a purple shoe with candy crush on an ipad in the background. You use your dummy buyer account to message a real seller to find their rate. They reply $50. You tell the buyer it'll be $60.
At night, you might begin to feel as though you're scamming people, or as though your work is amoral... but you'll look to the new canopy bed you've bought, and feel the high-count egyptian fiber blankets that wrap around you, and you'll feel all this in your brand-new silken pajamas that go nicely with your new mercedes in the driveway, and that's when you'll realize that it's not scamming... your value that you provide is connecting two parties who had a shared, intersecting interest. The market only works if everything is aligned, and that's precisely the service you now offer. You've unified supply and demand, fastening one end of the business to the other. You've restored balance to the feetpics commodities exchange, and, with it, ushered in a new era of trading prosperity. Your connection is value, and thus...
you profit forevermore.
submitted by Ninja86420 to copypasta [link] [comments]

$PLAYTime's Over: Fuzzy Does D&B

Hello, dumdums -
It's me, Fuzzy. Welcome to a bright new day.
I hope you all had a productive start to the week, alternating between crying yourself to sleep / awake, relentlessly beating your meat and waiting for the markets to open. As promised on Friday, today in the neighborhood we're going to be working through a full breakdown of everybody's favorite low-rent purveyor of curly fries, pinball and sticky-carpeted sadness - Dave & Busters ($PLAY), as suggested by u/leonardnimoyNC1701. Sadly, the question of whether he's a $PLAY bagholder or just a big fan of Street Fighter 2 and shitty beer remains unanswered. Anyway, let's do this.
A couple of reminders for the first time readers and slow learners in the audience (which I imagine applies to most, if not all of you):
  1. I will answer any legitimate question I get asked about the post, no matter how stupid (as long as it is sincere or at least funny). Sometimes it takes me a couple of days but I get around to everybody eventually. I do this because getting flamed by someone who knows what they're talking about is the only way to learn - it's how I learned, and it works. But remember - I don't give advice for free. So please don't ask me what to buy (long $ONIONS), if your 95% OTM option is fucked (almost certainly, unless you're long $BA) or for a strike/exp ($SPY 69p 4/20 blaze it) because I'll just have to repeat that in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy.
  2. The fact that I am posting this is not indicative of any view I have on D&B one way or the other; this was just the most upvoted ticker in Friday's post. I do this shit because (i) I enjoy it and (ii) I want you retards to learn how to do your own legwork.
  3. Most upvoted ticker / financial concept in the comments will get the next breakdown. This will likely be market open Monday next week as I have some more basic financial literacy I'd like to ram down your throats before then.
  4. Finally, and perhaps most importantly - u/pokimane. Girl, WSB is getting a little crazy. Why don't you and me get out of here; my offer to tell you which stonks to buy remains open (as do my DMs).
OK - on with the show. This is actually a pretty interesting case study; D&B have in the last month (i) successfully warded off some adverse interest from KKR (ii) closed all their locations (iii) lost 90% of their equity value and (iv) against all odds, smashed earnings. Plus, like many of you bagholding autists, as a result of the current market they've also had to open themselves up to taking some deep PIPE - although in their case, that stands for a Private Investment in Public Equity (rather than the more... literal version of 'pipe' that ends with you, your desperation finance OnlyFans channel, and that one 'won't take no for an answer' subscriber named Chuck). Don't worry; I'll explain all of this as we go along (other than the Chuck thing).
TL;DR? Fuck you. This will take you 10 minutes at most to work through and you'll learn something.
Okay. Ready? Let's do this.
1.Things You'll Need To Play Along At Home
D&B Credit Agreement
D&B 10-K
Some music
A drink (at this time in the morning, it may be some coffee; that said, Fuzzy don't judge).
2. High Score? D&B Target Review
As always, it's important to understand the entity you're considering when you're doing a breakdown like this. So, D&B run all-in-one restaurants / bars / arcades; they've got 136 locations in 39 states. That's it. Not exactly a diversified business model, but hey, whatever works. The revenue breakdown is like this:
OK. So the takeaway here is that no money is coming in other than in the pockets of people who walk through the front doors of each store. Before we dive into this, let's look at why they had an earnings pop (reporting Q4 and FY 2019, not Q1 2020):
So what we can see here is a business operating an aggressive expansion strategy that leases almost all of its locations and is operating on a pretty thin margin. Good earnings caused a pop on the equity price but that was for a non-corona quarter and they'd already lost 90% of the value of the shares. I wonder what effect the ol' bat flu is going to have on their business? Well, we already know they laid off 90% of their employees - let's see what else they've got planned:

"We cannot predict how soon we will be able to reopen our stores and, as, our ability to reopen will depend in part on the actions of a number of governmental bodies over which we have no control. Moreover, once restrictions are lifted, it is unclear how quickly customers will return to our stores, which may be a function of continued concerns over safety and/or depressed consumer sentiment due to adverse economic conditions, including job losses. Considering the significant uncertainty as to when we can reopen some or all of our stores and the uncertain customer demand environment, in addition to the actions described above, we:
•have begun discussions with our landlords, vendors, and other business partners to reduce our lease and contract payments and obtain other concessions;
•are in discussion with our lenders to obtain covenant relief to avoid events of default; and
•are in active dialogue with multiple potential investors to secure additional sources of financing."
Sounds super healthy.
Teaching moment. Here's a really important part that would be easy to skip over. Like I've explained before, when you sign up to a Credit Agreement, it comes with a lot of rules. You have to do certain things at certain times in order to keep your banks happy. If you break them, bad things happen. So when you know you're not going to be able to comply, you need to get a waiver. Anyway, one of those rules is delivering them a set of audited financials every year. Seems like D&B had a preliminary conversation with their auditors that... did not go well. How can we tell? Well, in February they sought a waiver of the obligation to deliver these financials to their lenders this year. Why would they do that? The auditor's main job is to tell you that the business is capable of operating as a 'going concern'; i.e., that everything is in order and they're not about to go under. So D&B wrote to their banks and asked... not to send this. They spell it out for you in the 10-K:
While our lenders have granted a waiver of any event of default associated with receiving an auditor’s report **indicating a substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern** in connection with our year-end audit,
They go on to talk about how if they didn't get a waiver they would have had to file for Chapter 11. Now, they did get a waiver, so Ch. 11 isn't incoming, but it's important info to realize how precarious the situation of this business is. They have $99,000,000 cash on hand, no revenue, continuing lease expenditures, and about $750 million debt exposure. That's..... bad. They also are getting clipped about $5.5 million a quarter on interest payments.
3. What's One More Quarter? A D&B Debt Breakdown
D&B actually have a pretty basic debt structure. They currently have $266.5m outstanding under the TL (10-k, cross-ref the definition of "Term Loan Commitments") and the full $500m drawn under the revolver (8-k in March, cross-ref "Revolving Credit Commitments"). As of Feb the spread on the loans was L+150 (10-K) but the full draw on the revolver will have pushed their latest borrowings to L+200 as they've now exceeded their leverage step-downs ratios (see the definition of "Applicable Margin" in the Credit Agreement, cross ref definition of "Total Leverage Ratio"). You can calculate total leverage for $PLAY like this: Total funded debt minus cash divided by EBITDA (see definition of "Total Leverage Ratio").
The facility is maturing in Feb 2022; so they've got 18 months to pull together nearly $800 million in interest and repayments. Hmm. Sounds like they'll be needing some cash soon. Well, we know they've tapped out their revolver; so that's gone (and they couldn't draw that to repay the TL anyway as they mature at the same time plus there are restrictions on use of proceeds in the Credit Agreement for things like this). The big question here is what kind of additional debt they can incur under the facility.
As we discussed in our $SEAS and $F breakdowns, credit agreements permit you to go out and incur additional debt only under certain circumstances, using dedicated 'baskets' found in the negative covenants of the document. Normally these have their own dedicated section but this CA has a bit of a weird structure so they're lumped in with all the other covenants. You can find them in Section 8.07 (Borrowings).
The key baskets we're looking for come in three categories: (i) incremental debt (debt that can be incurred *outside* of the facility (ii) general basket debt (this is known as a 'freebie' or 'dollar' basket and is just straight up debt they can incur without getting permission from the banks (iii) ratio debt (debt they can incur when they are in compliance with a certain leverage ratio). Let's work through them one by one.
Incremental Debt - Let's go to Section 1.16. You can see here that they can incur "New Term Loans" (incremental debt) in an amount up to $**150m + as much as they want provided they're in in compliance with a secured leverage ratio of 2.50:1.00**. They've blown through this so we can safely say this debt incurrence is capped at $150m. There are a couple of other random more technical builders related to cash-flow sweeps and declined proceeds which I won't go into, but I'm listing them here to be complete.
General Basket - Back to Section 8. See if you can spot the general basket. It's in (k). The cap here is the greater of (i) $20 million and (ii) 10% of the EBITDA. 10% of EBITDA is bigger here, so it's about $28 million.
Ratio Basket - Unlimited capacity subject to Total Leverage Ratio compliance of 3.50:1.00. They're justttttt in compliance with this so they can tap some of this basket if they wanted to. This is in section 8.07(n).
They're also dealing with a 'financial covenant' that requires them to be in compliance with a Total Leverage Ratio of 3.50:1.00 and a Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio of 1.25:1.00. They are 99% likely to seek relief from these covenants even though they're currently in compliance (because their EBITDA is going to fall dramatically) and they indicate in the 10-K they're already exploring this.
4. $PLAY Wants The $PIPE
So we can see that $PLAY is limited in terms of its debt flexibility and they're going to need some more money to keep going. Now, earlier in the month they resisted some adverse interest from private equity buyers by adopting a new shareholder rights plan commonly known as a 'poison pill') which attempts to limit the amount of shares that can be owned by a single buyer by forcing them to pay double the market price once they reach a certain ownership threshold (here, it's 15%). This forces anyone who wants to deal with a potential $PLAY acquisition to play nice with the board rather than just try and buy up common at the discount corona-prices. Think about it like the fat friend at the bar. It's there to prevent the cute, distressed opportunity from getting into more trouble than it should. Even though $PLAY wants more cash, it wants to get it on its own terms.
But now, $PLAY's sobered up, and, with the security blanket plan in place - surprise - they've dolled themselves up, put on their cutest outfit, and they're out trawling for investments. What they're exploring is referred to as a PIPE - private investment in public equity. This is a pretty ballsy move and its often referred to as financing of last resort because it's risky and expensive; it involves $PLAY putting together a block of preferred equity priced substantially below par, couple it with warrants or other securities, and then sell it to a single investor. This puts them in bed with that investor for a while and pisses off the common stock holders, but can have the effect of driving up price of common due to renewed interest in the long term prospects of the business (plus provides the obvious benefit of a short term cashflow injection).
The reason that PIPEs can provide a short term boost is because the unregistered pref shares are relatively illiquid - once the investor buys them, they're hard to trade for a little while. This indicates that (i) smart money sees a bottom in the price of the common and (ii) believes that there's long term value in the asset. This is going to be a pretty popular form of financing for the next few months given the number of distressed entities who will have difficulty refinancing their debt without exorbitant rates.
That said, the issue of involving yourself with PE investors who will want a say in the operation of the business is substantially different than involving yourself with hands off bankers just looking for long term returns. It's like taking Greek government bonds as collateral (lol) - it's a risky business.
Use your noodle and consider all your options given the above information. Good luck out there.
Final note - it's a brave new world of WSB. Congratulations to the mod team.
*EDIT 1* Because I love you guys, next week I'm going to do *two* breakdowns. $LULU and $LYV won.
*EDIT 2* Fuzzy go boom. Spot on about $PLAY's next move. http://ir.daveandbusters.com/static-files/79f0a503-4fff-434a-9e09-1b75bf1cb9dd
submitted by fuzzyblankeet to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Caravanning Rules

This rule set is connected to the "crafting" rules I posted in another thread. This is the core system used for running a caravan, with the crunch and mechanics associated. More detail can be found here:

Caravanning for Dummies
Caravan Basics The PC’s management of their Caravan is broken down into two parts: Buying, And Selling. During the buying phase, the players can make Intimidate, Diplomacy, and Bluff checks to attempt to lower prices, while the selling phase is about remembering which locations have the better prices, and where turning a profit is a viable route to pursue. During the buying phase, there are factors to keep in mind: Intimidation checks will carry a substantial risk that the sellers may markup future interactions with the party, or even worse: refuse to sell to the party at all. Cities are often poor places to obtain raw goods such as crafting supplies or food, as they’re often the places such materials end up. Whereas, villages are often poor places to find more complex goods such as armors, or weapons. The buying phase is also when Caravan upgrades will come into play and be selectable (you cannot upgrade a cart above 50% inventory!) During the selling phase: Selling is a bit more complex in that you need to manage the value of a city versus maintaining the value. Players will have standardized prices that represent the maximum that a product can be marked up for, although you can make a check at level +2 difficulty in order to attempt to do so regardless. Failure to do so, or an attempt to markup beyond the prices the city will accept in desperate situations will lead to things such as a lack of ability to sell, or worse, a riot if it’s a desperately needed product. In the event of a riot, spawn an extreme difficulty combat encounter on the PC’s. The Act of Selling: Each city will have a value associated with products across the 4 primary types: Food, Crafting Supplies, Armor, & Weapons. Each category will have a value associated with it between 1-10. Each value represents the markup present in those items, see chart below:
These profit margins are based against the “standard price” of a crate: 15 gold per crate.
If you sell a number of items to a settlement equivalent to the value given, the value reduces by 1.
Example: Silverhall has an 8 in Crafting goods. This means that 8 crates of Crafting Goods can be sold to Silver Hall at a markup of 160%. After those 8 crates are sold, the value of Crafting goods within Silver Hall reduces to 7, any inventory after 8 crates is sold at a 140% markup versus the 160%. A diplomacy check can be used to attempt to retain the value of the product, but for selling directly to the city those are the maximum values that are achieved. The inverse is also true, as you buy items from a location, the cost of said item increases.
Example: Buying an item at value 2, after buying 9 crates from that location, the markup increases for future purchases from 40% of market cost, to 60% of market cost. Contracts, Trading Permits, Supply Agreements and Sponsorships There are however alternative trading routes that can be used: Contracts are like quests that can be picked up in that it may be a buyer who states they wish for large quantities of product. Versus being negotiated on a piece by piece value, you are negotiating for the value of the entire trade expedition.
Trading Permits are obtained from a merchant guild of a city and allow you access to the cities commercial sellers. In this sort of agreement, you may end up a city wide purveyor of supplies that is disseminated to other merchants, who then sell the products themselves. Trading Permits give you a -1 to the value of the product at the time the Permit is negotiated, however decreases in product value do not occur for the product the Permit is negotiated for.
Supply Agreements are formed with camps, villages, etc. These agreements are created to buy a product category at a -2 to the value of the trading post (see chart above), effectively to cover the costs of transporting the product. If a Supply Agreement product is left too long (stipulated within Agreement) within the originating trading post, the agreement will end as they still need to sell the supplies in order to survive.
Sponsorships are obtained from Nobility, and give you access to preferential prices for products. For any items you would purchase, subtract 10% of the items standard price from your cost of purchase while within the realm of the nobility. This discount does not stack with a Supply Agreement.
submitted by stormblind to Pathfinder2eCreations [link] [comments]

The Kava Wiki (This Is The Guide You've Been Looking For!)

Wiki Intro Use this Wiki as a tool to help you w/ your research. There are many different "rabbit holes" for you to explore! This section will update daily w/ new info.

Most Relevant Link

KAVA CDP Mainnet Launch (Companion Wiki) [A Collection of Resources Regarding The June 10th Launch]

General Educational Guides

Quick Dive

Blockchain For Dummies Description
Quick Kava Overview

Deep Dive

All About Kava’s DeFi Lending
All About Kava’s Interoperability
All About Kava as an Oracle Provider
All About Kava’s Journey To Become A Cosmos Hub
All About Community Governance

Specific Educational Guides

Kava CDP Mainnet Launch

All About The June 10th CDP Mainnet Launch
All About BNB As Kava's 1st Supported Asset!

Crypto Payday Promotion

All about the BNB Pre-Registration (Quick Dive)
All About Crypto Paydays! (Deep Dive)

Tesla Cyber Truck Competition

All About Binance Margin Trading Competition!

Newsworthy Items

All About The dForce Hack
All About The Chainlink Partnership

General Resources

List of Kava Communities!
List of Kava Partnerships!
List of Official Kava Docs!
List of News Articles!
List of YouTube Videos!
List of Podcasts!
Frequently Asked Questions!
The Kava AMA Tracker! (Q&A)

Kava Whitepaper!

  • Only 6 Pages Long
  • Nothing But Pictures
  • About A 5 Minute Read
submitted by Kava_Mod to KavaUSDX [link] [comments]

Iron Bear weapons and augments damage and DPS stats : Iron Bear gun comparisons : Iron Bear BEST GUN : Iron Bear which gun does the most damage : Iron Bear full comprehensive guide

OUT OF DATE. THIS WAS FOR LEVEl 50 AND A FEW PATCHES AGO. MOST THE INFO HERE IS STILL APPLICABLE TO GIVE GENERAL IDEAS OF AUGMENTS POWER LEVEL.
(Multiple titles for google searchers, as I have searched endlessly attempting to find this before I decided to make it myself)
I haven’t seen anyone make this yet so I did. It’s pretty detailed. I made sure to not spec into anything that would buff any kind of mech damage or elemental damage or duration, nor have any gear on.
Duration, shots during full duration, damage of full duration, and DPS of full duration stats are measured shooting both arms endlessly, allowing full weapon reloads/cooldowns.
All these numbers are for body shots on the dummy, which is flesh, so keep that in mind for elemental damage modifiers (1x kinetic, 1x cryo, 1x radiation, 1.75x Fire, .65x shock, .65x corrosive). All guns that can crit have a 2x modifier, so double the numbers if you intend to hit crits. Any number with a “k” is rounded up to the thousandth by the game, so those numbers are only that precise.
Conclusion of BEST GUNS for each scenario at bottom
ON TO THE DATA!

Minigun
Damage per shot: 1006
Shots per mag (1 arm): 76
Damage per mag (1 arm): 76456
Time to empty mag: 7.3 sec
Duration: 14.9 sec
Shots during full duration: 174
DPS of mag (1 arm): 10473
Damage of full duration: 175044
DPS of full duration: 11748

Augment: Let Off Some Steam
Damage per shot: scales from 1006 to 1790 (1398 average) (I am not sure if this number scaled linearly, so take the following stats with a grain of salt)
Shots per mag (1 arm): 104
Damage per mag (1 arm): 145392 (using average damage)
Time to empty mag: 9.5 sec
Duration: 8.75 sec
Shots during full duration: 192
DPS of mag (1 arm): 15304 (using average damage)
Damage of full duration: 261696 (the guns don’t reach max damage before the duration runs out at 1720 damage, so the average damage would be 1363. Using that average damage)
DPS of full duration: 29908 (using the average damage of 1363)
Interesting things to note: should give up to an 80% increase, but is only a 76-78% increase. The max damage number was not consistent in runs, reading many numbers between 1766 and 1790. I used the best number for these calculations, but your damage/DPS will most likely be slightly lower due to this strange variance.

Augment: General Winter
Damage per shot: 1033
Shots per mag (1 arm): 83
Damage per mag (1 arm): 85739
Time to empty mag: 7.85 sec
Duration: 19.15 sec
Shots during full duration: 276
DPS of mag (1 arm): 10922
Damage of full duration: 285108
DPS of full duration: 14888
Interesting things to note: seems like the -30% damage... actually results in slightly more damage (both kinetic and cryo have a 1x modifier so that is not affecting it). An error in skill text vs coding I assume (it happens).

Augment: Exploding. Bullets.
Damage per shot: 3351
Shots per mag (1 arm): 29
Damage per mag (1 arm): 97179
Time to empty mag: 7.85 sec
Duration: 31.55 sec
Shots during full duration: 138
DPS of mag (1 arm): 12379
Damage of full duration: 462438
DPS of full duration: 14657

The Salamander attachments get most their damage out of their DoTs. I tested the DoT damage on random flesh enemies that wouldn’t die to the DoTs.
Salamander
Damage per shot: 474
(Endless mag)
Applies a DoT of ~1389, 3 times a second, for 5 seconds (15 times)
Duration: 16.6 sec (+5 seconds of burn afterward, which I will be counting into the full duration for DPS)
Shots during full duration: 94
Damage of full duration: 44556+88896burn=133452
DPS of full duration: 6178 (accounting for the 5 sec of burn)

Augment: Fuel Economy
Damage per shot: 474
(Endless mag)
Applies a DoT of ~1389, 3 times a second, for 5 seconds (15 times)
Duration: 24 sec (+5 seconds of burn afterward, which I will be counting into the full duration for DPS)
Shots during full duration: 140
Damage of full duration: 66360+120843burn=187203
DPS of full duration: 6455 (accounting for the 5 sec of burn)
Interesting things to note: should give -25% fuel drain, but gives -33% fuel drain.

Augment: Chemical Warfare
Damage per shot: 176
(Endless mag)
Applies a DoT of ~777, 3 times a second, for 7 seconds (21 times)
Duration: 16.6 sec (+7 seconds of burn afterward, which I will be counting into the full duration for DPS)
Shots during full duration: 94
Damage of full duration: 16544+54390burn=70934
DPS of full duration: 3006 (accounting for the 7 sec of burn)

Augment: Molten Roar (in burn pool for full duration)
Damage per shot: 948x3 (burst is so fast I’m treating it like a single shot weapon) +the first projectile leaves a pool that does 1041 for 11 ticks, lasting 3.85 seconds (this damage cannot stack)
Applies a DoT of ~651, 3 times a second, for 5 seconds (15 times)
Shots per mag (1 arm): 1
Damage per mag (1 arm): 2844+11451burn=14295
Time to empty mag: instantly (irrelevant), but 1.35 sec to fire a second shot
Duration: 22 sec (+5 seconds of DoT burn afterward (3.85 of which also include pool burn), which I will be counting into the full duration for DPS)
Shots during full duration: 30
DPS of mag (1 arm): infinity (irrelevant), but 3897 DPS for 2 shots (accounting for both burn durations)
Damage of full duration: 85320+75993pool-burn+52731DoT-burn=214044
DPS of full duration: 7928 (accounting for both burn durations)
Interesting things to note: for some reason, after shooting an arm 10 times, IB will make a weird mechanical noise and wont shoot again for 3.4 seconds.

V-35 Grenade Launcher
Damage per shot: 3874
Shots per mag (1 arm): 15
Damage per mag (1 arm): 58110
Time to empty mag: 9.15 sec
Duration: 17.3 sec
Shots during full duration: 38
DPS of mag (1 arm): 6351
Damage of full duration: 147212
DPS of full duration: 8509

Augment: Shaped Charge (direct hits)
Damage per shot: 5230
Shots per mag (1 arm): 15
Damage per mag (1 arm): 78450
Time to empty mag: 9.15 sec
Duration: 17.3 sec
Shots during full duration: 38
DPS of mag (1 arm): 8574
Damage of full duration: 198740
DPS of full duration: 11488

Augment: Musical Chairs
Same as the default launcher but every 7th shot does a singularly that explodes for 2185 damage. This obviously lowers the DPS a very small bit.

Augment: Lock and Speedload
Damage per shot: 3160
Shots per mag (1 arm): 15
Damage per mag (1 arm): 47400
Time to empty mag: 3.1 sec
Duration: 24.2 sec
Shots during full duration: 104
DPS of mag (1 arm): 15290
Damage of full duration: 328640
DPS of full duration: 13580

Vanquisher Rocket Pod
Damage per shot: 3411
Shots per mag (1 arm): 36
Damage per mag (1 arm): 122796
Time to empty mag: 5.15 sec
Duration: 18.55 sec
Shots during full duration: 136
DPS of mag (1 arm): 23844
Damage of full duration: 463896
DPS of full duration: 25008

Augment: Active Tracking
(Can’t lock onto target dummy so this test was done against Graveward)
Damage per shot: 1705
Shots per mag (1 arm): 18
Damage per mag (1 arm): 30690
Time to empty mag: 2.9 sec (from first lock-on to last rocket fired)
Duration: 22.65 sec (from first lock-on to last rocket fired)
Shots during full duration: 128
DPS of mag (1 arm): 10583
Damage of full duration: 218240
DPS of full duration: 9635

Augment: Target Softening
Damage per shot: 767x6 (each shot costs 3 ammo) (TS rockets do not gain damage buff)
Shots per mag (1 arm): 6 (18 ammo)
Damage per mag (1 arm): 27612
Time to empty mag: 3 sec
Duration: 52.7 sec
Shots during full duration: 72 (216 ammo)
DPS of mag (1 arm): 9204
Damage of full duration: 331344
DPS of full duration: 6287
Interesting things to note: this gun fires in 2 round bursts (with a 6 round mag) but it sometimes messes up and shoots one shot, then 2, then 2, then the last one. Also sometimes it gets stuck on an empty mag and doesn’t start reloading for a second or 2 or till the shoot button is reapplied, this seems to happen for every mag after the first.

Augment: Hammerdown Protocol
Damage per shot: 12k
Shots per mag (1 arm): 1
Damage per mag (1 arm): 12k
Time to empty mag: instantly (irrelevant), but 6.2 sec to fire a second shot
Duration: 17.8 sec
Shots during full duration: 8
DPS of mag (1 arm): infinity (irrelevant), but 3871 DPS for 2 shots
Damage of full duration: 96000
DPS of full duration: 5393

Railgun
Damage per shot: 7256
Shots per mag (1 arm): 1
Damage per mag (1 arm): 7256
Time to empty mag: instantly (irrelevant), but 3.25 sec to fire a second shot
Duration: 14.8 sec
Shots during full duration: 12
DPS of mag (1 arm): infinity (irrelevant), but 4465 DPS for 2 shots
Damage of full duration: 87027
DPS of full duration: 5880

Augment: Hell on Rails
Damage per shot: 19k
Shots per mag (1 arm): 1
Damage per mag (1 arm): 19k
Time to empty mag: instantly (irrelevant), but 3.25 sec to fire a second shot
Duration: 14.8 sec
Shots during full duration: 12
DPS of mag (1 arm): infinity (irrelevant), but 11692 DPS for 2 shots
Damage of full duration: 228000
DPS of full duration: 15405
Interesting things to note: seems like the +30% fuel drain doesn’t actually happen. Every shot lowered the bar the same amount as the normal railgun.

Augment: Capacitive Armature
Same as default railgun.

Augment: Corrosive Sabot Round
Damage per shot: 967impact+4837explosion=5804
Shots per mag (1 arm): 3
Damage per mag (1 arm): 17412
Time to empty mag: 1.2 sec
Duration: 47.3 sec
Shots during full duration: 84
DPS of mag (1 arm): 14510
Damage of full duration: 487536
DPS of full duration: 10307

Bear Fist
Damage per shot: 9302
Shots per mag (1 arm): 1
Damage per mag (1 arm): 9302
Time to empty mag: instantly (irrelevant), but 1.75 sec to fire a second shot
Duration: 12.7 sec
Shots during full duration: 16
DPS of mag (1 arm): infinity (irrelevant), but 10631 DPS for 2 shots
Damage of full duration: 148832
DPS of full duration: 11719

Augment: Wild Swing
Same as default fist but with random 35% bonus elemental damage that is subject to damage modifiers. So stats will be random dependent on elemental damage.

Augment: Close the Distance
Damage per shot: 6046
Shots per mag (1 arm): 1
Damage per mag (1 arm): 6046
Time to empty mag: instantly (irrelevant), but 4.2 sec to fire a second shot
Duration: 8 sec
Shots during full duration: 6
DPS of mag (1 arm): infinity (irrelevant), but 2879 DPS for 2 shots
Damage of full duration: 36288
DPS of full duration: 4536

Augment: Shockhammer
Damage per shot: 5581+698shock=6279
(Endless mag)
Duration: 6.35 sec
Shots during full duration: 34
Damage of full duration: 213486
DPS of full duration: 33620

Bonus stats:
When Auto Bear blows up it does 7808 damage
IB’s melee does 4164
Dakka Bear does, 969 per shot, never overheats, 12 shots per second (after 2 seconds of revving up), 11628 DPS (nothing amazing, but better than most people give it credit for. My co-op partner jumps up there and gets some fun kills while being pretty safe. I’d say use it in co-op just for the team bonding. You feel like a Megazord or a Jaeger.)

If this helped anyone, feel free to share it around. I’m happy to help out players with this info.
(And if anyone wants to show appreciation for my effort... damn, this took a long long time to test. Multiple runs to ensure good average times. Sometimes having to .25 speed slow-mo and count 100 shots multiple times to make sure I got it right. Lets just say... it was a lot of effort.)
EDIT: All the medals and comments thanking me, I appreciate you all showing your appreciation. Glad I could help. Have fun!
Some of the duration stats don’t line up perfectly with the shots x shot delay stats for single fire weapons. This is due to the human reaction time of .25 seconds. Multiple trials were done to get as accurate measurements as possible. (I’m an engineer and half my job is testing to get precise measurements and averages, so I promise this the best data that can be gathered.)
The elemental guns will sometimes apply elemental DoTs for around 6-13% of the base damage 3 times a second. It’s impossible to reliably factor in and mostly irrelevant. (other than the flame throwers)

In conclusion! (Use suggestions)
Highest DPS:
Shockhammer by a large margin, though for a very short time. If you wanna use IB to quickly dispatch an anointed or a few badasses, this might be just enough to handle the job quickly and get back to playing out of mech. (Though landing crits with other attachments can outperform this.) (Fists also DO NOT GAIN BOOSTS FROM SKILLS, so the other attachments can surpass these with a enough points specced into DM or a combination of S-RPMs, SpecBear and SSB.)

Highest sustained DPS:
Vanquisher Rocket Pod, with the third highest DPS and the second highest damage of the full duration. This is probably the BEST GUN overall, and has the second best DPS (best against flesh) if you land crits and are specced into IB damage skills. (the long reload is annoying, though many other guns have long reload/cooldown. And that super high DPS is including the reload obviously. So keep that in mind when it’s annoying you; you’re still getting the best sustained DPS.)
Yes, Let Off Some Steam has a higher DPS, but this is only for 8.75 seconds (less than half the duration compared to the 18.55 seconds of the rocket pods) and only if you are firing nonstop (as the damage only increases as the weapons overheat). It would be difficult to attain this DPS against mobs, and against bosses, you’d want the longer duration and more total damage the rocket pods give you. Plus, being able to add fire damage to the rocket pods explosions and then buff that fire damage does bring it much closer in DPS, exceeding the DPS of LOSS for flesh

Highest damage of the full duration:
Corrosive Sabot Round (Yes. Even with the debuff to the health of the target dummy), though Vanquisher Rocket Pod is close, and Exploding. Bullets. close after that. I’d still suggest the rocket pods, as it delivers nearly the same damage in 1/3 the time. Unless you’re expecting to miss a lot of shots, I don’t know why you wouldn’t want to deliver your damage faster.

Best to use against armor:
Corrosive Sabot Round! By such a large margin! Wow! With zero skills and gear, this thing will do an astonishing 27750 DPS for 47.3 seconds, totaling 1,312,597 damage! Spec correctly and I imagine this could take a good chunk out of Wotan and the like.
(General Winter does get close at 22332 DPS, but for a much shorter duration. No comparison, just thought I’d show the numbers for those who would question it.)

Best to use against shields:
Again, rocket pods (well, technically Shockhammer. As 16% of its damage is shock (before modifiers), it would boost its DPS to 44259. But of course this comes at the cost of having the chase targets and having no range and no crits and short duration and... basically all the reasons the fists aren’t that great. But if you chose to use it and don’t mind all those downsides, then the Shockhammer would absolutely demolish shields.) I assume many of you are surprised here. “Railgun would obviously be the best against shields!” Well, against shields it would increase the DPS to a very respectable 22615. But the rocket pods STILL win out with a DPS of 25008. Plus, the railgun requires much more precise aim and has a much higher cost of missing a shot (though they do have the benefit of perfect hitscan, but I’d say this doesn’t make up for its deficits in the matter.) So... sorry to those railgun lovers out there.
Not to mention you can add fire to your rocket pods explosions and boost said fire damage, increasing your damage to the underlying flesh while the fists and railgun would substantially lose damage.
(Best to use against JUST shields IN A GROUP (Guardians)): Capacitive Armature would do very well against Guardians grouped up, as splintering the damage to even 1 other enemy would surpass the DPS of the rocket pods. This would ONLY be superior against Guardians or enemies with very little health under their shields and only when grouped up, as the rocket pods vastly surpass the damage against flesh of the railgun, and would still excel against normal shielded enemies even if it takes a bit longer to break the shields.

Best to use against flesh:
Again, broken record here, rocket pods. These things are pretty much a jack of all trades (really the one case they don’t win is in areas primarily filled with armored enemies). Some of you may have assumed the Hell on Rails or Molten Roar, but these tests were done on flesh and you can see above that the rocket pods still win.

Best to use against many enemies not behind cover:
Surprisingly, Hammerdown Protocol takes the cake here (kind of). If you hit 5 targets at once, it surpasses the rocket pods in DPS. Even if you only hit 4 or 3, I’d say it’s still pretty good for the fact that you don’t have to waste time reacquiring targets and aiming. Of course... well... the rocket pods can crit... so they are technically the winner AGAIN. But for an easy, no aim required group clearer, the nukes do well (as well as getting a 50% boost against shields).

EDIT: Added this due to someone's inquiry in the comments: Don't use Target Softening. Trust me. Here's the math:
1 gun + target softening does 1.15x damage right? Well 2 guns without target softening does 2x damage. Ya see what's better?
Your logic may be "Well TS uses such little fuel, the other gun can fire many more times, resulting in more over all damage." Well... math:
If 2 of the same gun shoot 50 times in the full duration for 1 damage each, that's 100 damage. With TS, you'd need the other gun to shoot 87 times to equal 100 damage (87x1.15=100). That's a 74% increase to duration. Even when shooting just one arm (without the fuel of firing TS), it will never surpass even a 70% increase in duration. Meaning while firing TS it'll be lower.
So you can see you'll be getting less DPS and less total damage.

So...
TLDR:
Vanquisher Rocket Pod

And if anyone wants to see…
Ranking of DPS against flesh with no crits or skills:
Shockhammer (33620)
Let Off Some Steam (29908)
Vanquisher Rocket Pod (25008)
Hell on Rails (15405)
General Winter (14888)
Exploding. Bullets. (14657)
Lock and Speedload (13580)
Minigun (11748)
Wild Swing (random number higher than Bear Fist)
Bear Fist (11719)
Dakka Bear (11628)
Shaped Charge (direct hits) (11488)
Corrosive Sabot Round (10307)
Active Tracking (9635)
V-35 Grenade Launcher (8509)
Musical Chairs (slightly less than V-35 Grenade Launcher)
Molten Roar (in burn pool for full duration) (7928)
Fuel Economy (6455)
Target Softening (6287)
Salamander (6178)
Railgun/Capacitive Armature (5880)
Hammerdown Protocol (5393)
Close the Distance (4536)
Chemical Warfare (3006)
submitted by DeadendEndeavor to borderlands3 [link] [comments]

Comparing non meta first item options to Black Cleaver

'By building CDR you are enhancing your dmg output by reducing the time between your first rotation of Qs, which probably were used to gap close, and your second rotation of Qs.'-- u/KING_OATH
This is the essence behind the accepted meta, and explains why people think CDR is so useful for Riven. Hopefully this has always been apparent.
Below is the result of a conversation between the community and myself. Strap in Rivenmains its gonna be a ride.
After some practice tool testing, and without getting into too lengthy of a post without anyone to test things with at the moment, I have some findings --- which you'll have to take for what they are.
---
To prepare you for the information about to be given, lets set some of the baselines for comparison.The assumptions made are:
Riven is level 7 with only 1 completed item
Enemy Dummy has 1500HP and 70 Resistances (an assumption about the enemy laner when you are level 7 with one item)
and the items to be examined were BC, BotRK, and Hydra (to stay within the scope of my post).
Another basis that must be set are the combos: which I will be going over two of.
--
Combo1 is the extended Q3 into all in. Q3 > #AAs > E > aa > WQ>aa>Q>aa>Q>aa
BC deals 1206 damage over ~6.9 Seconds, putting 2 AAs inbetween Q3 and E. (dps = 175)
BotRK deals 1772 damage over ~7.8 Seconds BEFORE item active, putting 4 AAs in between Q3 and E. (dps = 226) active without full conqueror does 59 (assuming we use it to catch up to people)
Hydra deals 1554 damage over ~7.8 Seconds BEFORE item active, putting 3 AAs between Q3 and E (dps = 199) active with full conqueror does 110 (assuming it is easy enough to stack conqueror and we use Hydra during the all in combo not before).
--
Combo2 is a version of an all-in combo: Q > aa > Q > aa > E > aa > WQ > aa
BC deals 830 damage over ~4.1 Seconds (dps = 203)
BotRK deals 1083 damage over ~3.9 Seconds (dps = 280) ***NOTE: I had even higher dps and thus lower comboing time sometimes --- but lets go with vanilla numbers.
Hydra deals 976 damage over ~4.1 Seconds (dps = 243) AN EDIT: old values were off because I did not combo correctly, I had a combo time of 4.6 seconds and dps = 211 which makes no sense considering there is no downtime for lack of cdr, being that the combo is only one full rotation from rest)
-
-
Explanation for and Results for Combo 1:
Combo 1 seems to be the main argument about early cdr. If we extend our Q into a Q3 for a trade or all-in, the CDR allows our Q to be back up in 2 seconds with 25%CDR (black cleaver + 5% runes), allowing for quicker up time for our combo to set off.
My results from testing show this in the form of the #AAs that are fit between the Q3 and the E because I only used E slightly before I had Q back online (~0.25seconds prior) and thus the amount of auto attacks is representative of the time Riven has idle due to Q being on cooldown.
The results display that while BC does allow for a shorter overall combo time it also did the least amount of damage. To further this, it ALSO had the least dps, indicating that while the combo time was shorter, it wasnt as bursty as some others.
Comparing to Hydra (no atkspeed, no additional cdr), 3 auto attacks are fit in before the combo exemplifying the longer downtime of Q. This makes Hydras combo longer to complete, however it does the damage more efficiently than BC does, even if only slightly so with a 14% increase in DPS.
Comparing to BotRK (no additional cdr BUT we have that "wasted attack speed") 4 auto attacks are fit in before the combo. The combo also took no more time to complete than hydra did. This brings to light two things: The extra attack speed is actually not wasted, as we are able to successfully get off an entire auto we wouldnt have be able to otherwise AND auto attack speed reduces the effort/skill required to perfectly execute the fast combo, ensuring you cancel less auto attacks. This combos damage output is the most efficient in terms of dps with a 29% increase in burst compared to our BC baseline.
-
-
Explanation and Results for Combo 2:
Combo 2 is the alternate case, where we dont worry about the CDR between Q3 and an all-in. This may be a "response" combo where the enemy engages on us without us having spaced any Qs in advance or where we spot the enemy and want to jump on them but again, had not prepared Qs in advance.
The results display that BC sets a solid baseline of about 4 seconds and 830 damage for the combo to complete. Nothing remarkable to point out here, it is simply our baseline.
Comparing to Hydra there is only a slightly a notable gain to be had over black cleaver, but I will go over that in more detail immediately following this selection. DPS increase comes to a small 19.7% increase without accounting for the active and 16.3% 30.5% increase in DPS with the active used.
Comparing to BotRK there is a more than modest difference in damage output. Without accounting for the item active we have a huge increase in DPS of 37.9% and if we add in the active it bumps it up to 44.2% (this surprised me as I did not think the active would bump it up quite so much)

-----
inb4 "OKAY BUT ______":
I realize that this is an analysis of strictly the damage done. This fails to take into account the survivability that BC offers in terms of HP and the CDR it offers for uptime of E dodging. Note that this is the case for the other items as well. It does not take into account the ability that Hydra gives you to lifesteal back to full HP off of a wave or two, nor does it consider the small amount of extra sheild you have from the additional AD. Lastly, BotRKs lifesteal is not considered as well, nor is the implications that the active would allow one to kite and/or chase better. I will however say that the lifesteal from BotRK was actually insane, and plays a huge role into how 2 item builds compare to other two item builds. Also note that the enemy laners stats were assumed with a margin of error, one that I attempted to play in favor of BC and not in favor of BotRK by 1) assuming a relatively high amount of Armor, 2) assuming a realistic amount of HP that is clearly less than the normal HP of a tank, especially later in the game.
-----
let me know if you (the community) would like anything else explained or if you would like me to compare survivability given up by not going cleaver first item. I put in a lot of work while I did these calculations and I hope that some of the community may find these figures insightful.
submitted by Demeter-is-a-Girl to Rivenmains [link] [comments]

How much (baby) suffering is OK for breastfeeding?

I'm a first-time mom to an 8-week-old baby born 6 weeks preterm. Because of his stay in NICU and inability to latch, we've been pumping and bottle feeding. It worked fine, and he had very good weight gain. Now that he is more than full-term, I've been working with a lactation consultant to try to breastfeed (nurse). I think our approach is reasonable: offering the breast 3 times a day, and giving him a smaller feed (2oz instead of 3) during the feed prior to the feed where breast is offered.
He hates all this. He struggles and thrashes at the breast, and cries from hunger after the smaller feeds. I have to sit with him for up to an hour, holding the pacifier in his mouth so that he could settle down enough to take a nap before the feed where I offer the breast.
Additionally, we barely have time to do tummy time now. LO lost his umbilical cord stump very late, so we already had a very late start to dummy time. Now he is also so exhausted that he barely moves during tummy time. Because of the flat spots he has already developed on both sides of his head, and the late start, I feel that productive tummy time is very important.
My question is: is it worth the suffering and developmental impact to try to nurse? I was going to spend 3 weeks max trying to make nursing work, and we're only 5 days in. I feel that nursing only has small marginal benefits over pumping, so I don't know if this is a good trade off to make. Does anyone have relevant experience and advice?
submitted by wjello to beyondthebump [link] [comments]

[OC] Using machine learning to find the best and worst value contracts

This post has a lot of graphs graphs. If you don't want to click on each one individually, they're all in an imgur album here.
tl;dr We made a metric that estimates how much a player should have earned in a year given their stats. If you want to see the results, scroll down to the Google Sheets link (or click here). If you want to see more detailed results and compare players, scroll down the shiny apps link (or click here). If you just want to see the 10 best and worst contracts, look at this graph and this graph.

Introduction

As soon as free agency opened in July of 2016, the Lakers signed Timofey Mozgov to a 4 year, $64 million deal. At the time, this seemed like an enormous overpay. Today, it still seems like one. In the 2015-16 season, Mozgov averaged 6.3 PPG and 4.4 TRB in 17.4 MPG for the Cavs. The following season – his first as a Laker – his stats improved marginally. He averaged 7.4 PPG and 4.9 TRB in 20.4 MPG.
The following summer, the Lakers dumped Mozgov’s salary. They traded him along with D’Angelo Russell for Brook Lopez and the 27th pick in the draft. They used this pick to select Kyle Kuzma.
Mozgov’s contract was bad from the beginning. But, this is not always the case. Often, misfortune and other unforeseen circumstances make contracts bad. Key examples include injuries and accelerated aging. So, at the time, these contracts seem fine. But they become poison fast. In turn, the players earn much more than expected given their performance.
To find the best and worst value contracts, we’ll create 4 models to predict a player’s salary. This is not a predictive metric of what a player will earn in their next contract. This evaluates expected salary relative to real salary to see who’s overpaid and who’s underpaid.

History and understanding the data

In the 1984-1985 season, the NBA instituted the salary cap. This was a bare-bones salary cap; many of the rules that influence today’s cap weren’t in place. Unrestricted free agency, rookie contracts, max contracts, etc. only came into play later.
With the salary cap, each team had to decide how to allocate their money. Early on, many teams opted for a smooth approach where they would pay lots of middling players. In the 1990-1991 season, only 9 players earned over 20% of the total salary cap. The highest-paid player was Patrick Ewing, who earned 35.8% of the salary cap. At the time, the max contract did not yet exist. This year is somewhat of an outlier. The following season, the salary distribution changed to resemble what we see today.
Larry Bird earned a staggering 56% of the Celtics’ salary cap in the 1991-1992 season. Several players started to earn more of their team’s cap, as the league shifted more towards star power. The CBA only included the max contract about a decade later. Without max contracts, Michael Jordan earned 120% of the cap for two years in his second 3-peat.
Today, due to exceptions and restrictions, teams structure their cap room to get stars. Most contending teams often have a few max players, a couple guys in the $10 million range, and lots of minimums. So, if we’re going to predict salary, we must first understand its distribution.
https://i.imgur.com/8P6jdVU.png
We see that, historically, most players earned a small percentage of the cap. This is what we would expect. With the prevalence of tanking and salary dumps, most teams will have at least one high salary guy. For a contender, this is their main star. For a tanking team, this could be someone they took on along with a draft pick (such as Melo on the Hawks).
Next, we’ll look at how different factors correlate with salary. Theoretically, better players should always earn higher salaries. So, the correlation between something like points and salary should be positive. This is because better scorers are often better players, and, in turn, should earn more.
The CBA complicates this simple relationship with the rookie scale and minimum contracts. If we’re looking at performance relative to salary, rookie contracts by far the best value in the league. Luka Doncic is playing at an incredible level, but only earns about $7.5 million. Minimum contracts create a similar effect of underpaid players. Many contenders have no cap room. So, if a player wants to contend, he must take a pay cut. For the player to join the contender, they must either take a minimum or the mid-level exception (like Cousins on the Warriors). Relative to their performance, this is a steal.
The three graphs below show the relationship between different stats and salary.
https://i.imgur.com/jFozyAw.png
https://i.imgur.com/z1W07vP.png
https://i.imgur.com/uyjQr4q.png
As expected, points and win shares correlate with salary. Furthermore, the age plot shows the effect of rookie contracts. No player under 20 years old earned over 20% of the cap.
Now that we understand the data, we can discuss the methods for the analysis.

Methods

First, we collected all player data for every season since the 1990-1991 season. We go back to 1990-1991 for two reasons. First, the CBA only added unrestricted free agency in 1988. This changed the whole process of free agency – and in turn, contracts. So, we wouldn’t go back further than 1988 anyway. Second, our source for historical player salary data is this Kaggle data set, which only goes back to 1990.
We combined the salary data with each player’s counting and advanced stats for that season. Note that we’re taking stats for the given season. So, this is not a predictive metric. This evaluates whether the player is overpaid or underpaid given their expected salary. As such, players like Gordon Hayward will appear overvalued. At the time, the contract was fair. Due to a devastating injury later, Hayward spent a full year rehabbing and still had to shake off rust. Last season, Hayward did not play like a max player. So, he was overpaid for that season.
We used the following factors to predict a player’s salary:
  1. Age
  2. Points per game
  3. Rebounds per game
  4. Assists per game
  5. Steals per game
  6. Blocks per game
  7. True shooting %
  8. Win shares
These factors generally paint a picture of a player’s performance and situation. So, they can predict a player’s salary.
We included age as a feature to adjust for rookie contracts. Though they’re great value, it’s not a result of any negotiation or offer by the GM. It’s based on the player’s draft slot. So, even a superstar 18-year-old can’t get paid a large part of the cap. Adding age nullifies the effect of rookie contracts. If we did not have age, we would likely have to remove rookie contracts, as they would add noise to our data set. This transforms the problem from salary given performance to salary given expected salary. Our definition of expected salary mixes performance and age.
We used win shares instead of VORP or BPM because win shares is a cumulative stat. So, it depends on games played, which is a key factor in how much value a player provides to his team.
To understand the relationship between these features, we created a correlation plot.
https://i.imgur.com/FlGqZkF.png
With our 10,821 samples, we randomly split the data. We used 75% to train the models, and 25% to test them. We created four models:
  1. K-nearest neighbors regressor (KNN)
  2. Random forest regressor (RF)
  3. Gradient boosting regressor (GBR)
  4. Extreme gradient boosting regressor (XGB)
Note that we’re predicting the percentage of the cap a player deserves, instead of their raw salary. The salary cap rose and inflation occurred, so players today earn more than players 20 years ago. But, the percentage of the cap stayed consistent. Because we’re predicting percentage of cap, this is a regression problem.
We predicted salary for the 2018-19 season using 2018-19 stats (last season’s numbers). So, contracts won’t exactly match up with what they are today.
We also only considered players who played in the 2018-19 season. This affects some teams; for example, the Heat paid Chris Bosh $26.8 million last season, but he did not play. Because Bosh didn’t play, he’s excluded from the data. Also, Bosh doesn’t count against the Heat’s cap because he retired for medical reasons.
One final note about the data is that there are small inconsistencies due to player movement. We collected contract data from Basketball Reference’s contract page from April 1, 2019 (link). This is after the trade deadline. So, traded players count against the team they played for at the end of the season (e.g. Marc Gasol is on the Raptors, not the Grizzlies). Some players had multiple entries on the page, like Carmelo Anthony. He earned $25 million from the Hawks (salary dump from the Thunder). Then, after the Hawks waived him, Melo signed with the Rockets for $2 million. The Rockets then traded him to the Bulls. So, Melo has a $25 million Hawks entry and a $2 million Bulls entry. We removed duplicates and kept the first-indexed one (the higher salary one).
Neither of these inconsistencies affect the analysis much. Traded players still have the same contract, so on a player-by-player basis for value, they’re the same. This only affects the team’s sum of expected and observed salary difference. In the case of Melo with two entries, there are very few of these cases where it doesn’t matter much.

Regression analysis

In this section, we’ll check how our models perform.

Basic goodness of fit

For regression models, we have two basic metrics of performance. First, we have r-squared. This measures the proportion of the variance in the dependent variable (percent of cap) explained by the independent variables (features). It’s between 0 and 1, with 1 being the best possible value.
Second, we have mean squared error. This measures the average squared difference between the predicted and observed values. Unlike r-squared, lower MSE is better, with a best possible value of 0. We can interpret mean squared error, as it tells us how close our predictions are to the real value on average.
The table below shows the r-squared and mean squared error for the four models.
Model r-squared MSE
KNN 0.516 0.003
RF 0.546 0.003
GBR 0.542 0.003
XGB 0.544 0.003
All the models have a very low mean squared error of 0.003. We can take the square root of this (root mean squared error) to interpret the result. This differs from mean absolute error, which is the absolute value of the differences. RMSE is better here because it penalizes large errors more, so it’s more valuable for this problem.
Because the mean squared error for each model is about 0.003, the RMSE is about 0.055. This means that, on average, the models are about 5.5% off in predicted percent of cap.
In our classification problems, we create dummy classifiers to represent improvement over random. It’s harder to create a random model here. However, we can still compare our models to simple regressions. We saw before that the correlation coefficient (r) for a points and salary regression is 0.6. So, the r-squared is 0.36. Our models all have r-squared above 0.5, so they outperform simple methods to predict salary. So, the models predict salary well.

Cross-validation

In machine learning, we want to avoid overfitting. This occurs when the models learn the given data too well. So, they’re accurate on the given data but aren’t predictive on new data. To check for overfitting, we’ll perform cross-validation.
First, as in previous posts, we performed grid search on our hyperparameters. This means we tested lots of possible combinations for factors that determine how our models fit the data. Then, we selected the combination that resulted in the lowest MSE on different splits.
Additionally, we performed k-fold cross-validation. In k-fold cross-validation, we randomly split the data into k bins. The models receive k – 1 bins as training data, and then predict the one excluded bin. We repeat this process for every combination of bins. Then, we average the performance across the bins. This gives us an estimate of how our models perform on different splits of the data. A cross-validated score close to our initial score indicates the model performs almost the same on the different splits. So, if the two scores are close, it’s unlikely the models are overfitting.
The table below shows the cross-validation scores for r-squared and MSE, along with their 95% confidence intervals (2 standard deviations away from the mean).
Model r-squared 95% CI MSE 95% CI
KNN 0.507 +/- 0.071 0.004 +/- 0.001
RF 0.469 +/- 0.150 0.004 +/- 0.001
GBR 0.421 +/- 0.281 0.004 +/- 0.002
XGB 0.444 +/- 0.199 0.004 +/- 0.001
Though the CV r-squared scores are lower, the actual r-squared scores are within the 95% confidence interval. Furthermore, the CV MSE is very close to the initial MSE. So, it’s unlikely the models are overfitting.

Standardized residuals

A big part of regression analysis depends on analyzing the residuals. A residual is the difference between the predicted and observed value at a point.
Residuals in strong models have two important characteristics. First, they follow the normal distribution. Second, they have no autocorrelation or trend. Both these characteristics show that the model isn’t repeating the same mistake.
First, we’ll look at the standardized residuals test. Ideally, 95% of a model’s standardized residuals fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Furthermore, the standardized residuals should have no noticeable trend.
The graph below shows the standardized residuals of the four models.
https://i.imgur.com/MmOB3Xr.png
We see that only the KNN has 95% of its residuals within 2 standard deviations of the mean. The others are close to 95% (they’re all over 94.6%). This 95% is not a hard boundary; it exists because, in a normal distribution, 95% of data is within 2 standard deviations of the mean. So, the fact that close to 95% of the data is within 2 standard deviations is good.
The distributions of the standard residuals differ from a normal distribution. We see that the residuals peak close to 0 far above the expected density for a normal distribution. Furthermore, there are some residuals far away from most of the data. So, our residuals are probably heavy-tailed and not normal.
To analyze this assumption, we’ll perform a Shapiro-Wilk test for normality. The test returns a p-value and a w-value (not important here). If the p-value is less than 0.05, we can reject the null hypothesis, which is that the data is normally distributed. So, if p < 0.05, the data is not normal. The table below shows the p-values of the Shapiro-Wilk test.
Model p-value
KNN < 0.001
RF < 0.001
GBR < 0.001
XGB < 0.001
The p-value is small for all four models, so we can reject the null hypothesis. So, our standardized residuals are not normally distributed. This low p-value may be a result of a large sample size. To confirm this isn’t due to sample size, we’ll also look at a quantile-quantile (QQ) plot.
The QQ plot shows the theoretical quantiles and the order values of two distributions. If the two distributions are the same, their QQ plot will be a straight line. So, we will plot the residuals against a normal distribution (shown in red). The closer our points are to the red line, the better. The graph below shows each model’s QQ plot.
https://i.imgur.com/XKAInR9.png
We see that the residuals stay close to the line for most of the middle values. At the upper and lower ends, the residuals differ a lot. This indicates the residuals have heavy tails like we thought before. So, we can confidently say the model’s residuals are not normal.
Now, we will test for autocorrelation. To do this, we’ll perform a Durbin-Watson test. The test returns a Durbin-Watson statistic between 0 and 4. Values close to 2 indicate no autocorrelation. Values close to 0 indicate positive autocorrelation. Values close to 4 indicate negative autocorrelation. The table below shows the results of the DW test.
Model DW statistic
KNN 1.97
RF 1.99
GBR 1.99
XGB 1.99
The DW statistic for each model is close to 2. So, there’s no autocorrelation in the residuals, which is promising.
Though our residuals are not normal, which is a problem, the models are still useful. The residuals have no autocorrelation – meaning the model is not repeating the same mistake – and the models have no error. Now that we’ve evaluated the models, we can see what they predict.

Results

As mentioned earlier, rookie contracts are bargains. This is because their contracts depend on their draft position. Furthermore, they’re non-negotiable, as the rookie scale continues for 4 years.
Before diving into results, we’ll look at an example of how our models treat rookies. Last year, Luka Doncic put up 21.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 6 APG on good efficiency at 19 years old. So, even though he’s a great player, his expected salary is low because he’s on a rookie contract.
Our models predicted Luka Doncic to earn 12% of the cap. This is higher than his actual percent of cap of about 6.5%. So, he’s still a bargain given his expected salary. However, a player putting up Doncic’s stats would earn far more than 12% of the cap on the open market. This shows that our models identify the effect of age.
Now, we’ll let the models predict what Luka Doncic would earn at 27 years old if he put up the same stats. Given Doncic was 19 his rookie year, he will start his rookie maximum contract when he’s 23. That contract will take up 25% of the cap with 8% annual raises.
The models predict Doncic will be worth 23% of the cap if he put up his rookie stats (which he’s already improved on this year) at 27 years old. This is close to what he’ll make depending on how fast the cap rises. Because of the large difference in salary depending on age, we know the models capture the effect of age. So, they won’t identify all rookie contracts as bargains, as they know the expectation for rookies.
Now that we understand this, we can examine the results.
We’ll look at both player-by-player and team-by-team differences between expected and actual percent of cap. Higher values mean the player is great value, as he’s earning below his expected salary. We can sum these across teams to see which teams overpay players and which teams get good value.
The graph below shows the top 10 best value contracts as decided by the average of our four models.
https://i.imgur.com/eOuZ2nX.png
This list has some players we’d expect. Last season, Kemba earned only $12 million, a great value. Several of the players here signed a minimum contract or an exception like DeMarcus Cousins and Brook Lopez. Despite our earlier example of how the models filter out rookie contracts, there are still two rookie contract players here. But, they’re both older than typical rookie contract players. Last season, both Buddy Hield and Malcolm Brogdon were 26 years old. This is about as old as a player can get on their rookie contract unless they’re an international player. So, their age prevents their expected value from regressing to that of a rookie contract.
Now, let’s look at the worst value contracts.
https://i.imgur.com/9sMW9La.png
This contains the usual suspects for the worst contracts. Before his improvement this year, Andrew Wiggins had one of the worst contracts in the league. Furthermore, Hayward’s injury recovery made him perform far below what you’d expect for a max player. We also have some less recent poison contracts, like Otto Porter, Chandler Parsons, and Ryan Anderson.
Let’s look at which teams handed out the best contracts last year. We do this by summing the difference in expected and actual salary for every player on the roster.
https://i.imgur.com/AwfwAHv.png
All the teams on this list have lots of good role players or young talent. Though the Lakers, Pelicans, and Bucks all had a max player (LeBron, Davis, Giannis), a max is great value for those players. Furthermore, the rest of the team had great value contracts. We see that the teams here made big moves over the summer, often resulting in improvement. The Lakers added Davis. The Pelicans added young talent. The Nets signed Kyrie and KD. The 76ers signed Horford. The Clippers signed Kawhi and traded for Paul George.
Now, let’s look at the teams with the worst value contracts.
https://i.imgur.com/WTRsFWA.png
OKC had the worst cumulative value difference by a large value. Westbrook’s max and Steven Adams’ large contract contribute to this. We see that a lot of the teams here ended up tanking or in limbo. For example, the Thunder traded Westbrook and George. The struggling Pistons held onto Griffin and Drummond and now look even worse.
Though it’s bad to be a team in the above graph, for tanking teams, it can be good. Tanking teams often receive salary dumps, where they take on a bad contract in exchange for picks. So, they’ll have a negative difference, but it’s worth it because of the attached assets.
Let’s look at the distribution of our predicted salary relative to the actual salary distribution.
https://i.imgur.com/MnTBjPv.png
We see that the predicted distribution is a right-shift of the observed distribution. Minimum contracts and exceptions contribute to this, as good players often take discounts to play for contenders.

Full individual results

To see the full results for all players and teams, go to this Google Sheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19_g58Nzb9qv0HqmUuUqH5YSfk9Ys25E5q_e4qJIB1UI/edit?usp=sharing

Interactive results

To help visualize the results, we created an R Shiny app. This lets you interactively compare players and teams. The link is:
https://dribbleanalytics.shinyapps.io/contract-value/

Why do the models predict what they do?

Now that we’ve seen the performance and results of the model, we’ll look at what influences their prediction. To do this, we’ll use Shapley values. Shapley value estimates the marginal contribution of a feature through all possible combinations. This allows us to see what features are most important, and what values for these features create the most impact. For example, we know that a low value for age will result in a low predicted salary because of rookie contracts. But, is age a big predictor of salary in all cases? Or does it only matter for young players, after which other factors matter more?
Shapley values let us answer these questions. The four graphs below show the Shapley values for each feature in our four models. The y-axis sorts features by their importance (most important is on top). The x-axis shows the Shapley value, or the impact on model output. The color of each point shows the actual feature value. So, for example, older players have red “age” points, because their age is higher.
https://i.imgur.com/C9KMlRx.png
https://i.imgur.com/NDj3Cgd.png
https://i.imgur.com/PErAr70.png
https://i.imgur.com/nJ5w1vL.png
All four models have points, age, and rebounds as their top 3 features in that order. Notice that the feature importance for the RF, GBR, and XGB follow the same order. Because all three of these models are tree-based models, they fit the data in similar ways. So, the same feature sets affect the models to a similar extent.
We see that rebounds don’t have much of an effect on model output unless the player recorded a lot of rebounds. This makes sense, as most top bigs will rack up rebounds. Meanwhile, guards and wings won’t record lots of rebounds, but that shouldn’t affect them.
The plots give more proof to the effect of rookie contracts and age. In each model, low values of age have the largest negative impact on model output. But, there’s an interesting trend with high values of age. We’d expect high values of age not to affect output, given that older players often earn less because they’re expected to decline. However, high values of age positively impact model outputs. This explains some of the odd results of the models, such as why LaMarcus Aldridge has a higher predicted salary than Giannis.

Conclusion

When offering players contracts, GMs try to give better players more money. By giving models basic indicators of player performance, we can almost pinpoint what a player should earn.
We could expand this to predict a player’s salary in year n given their performance in year n – 1. This allows us to predict how much a player should earn before they start their contract or pick their team. However, this analysis would be much less accurate than what we did here. It’s hard to predict how players will progress between seasons or how different schemes affect their production. Over one summer, so much changes. In the course of a single season, player performance is much easier to predict. So, this works because it’s a retrospective look at value, instead of a future prediction.
This is my newest post on my open-source basketball analytics blog, Dribble Analytics.
The GitHub for the this project is here.
submitted by dribbleanalytics to nba [link] [comments]

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Margin Calls Explained - YouTube

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