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The 4th way of algorithmic trading (Signal Processing)
Algorithmic trading types classified based on development perspectives: 1) Technical Analysis 2) Statistics and Probability 3) Machine Learning I took a different path which is not discussed widely in this subreddit. 4) Signal Processing I'm not a good storyteller, but this is my journey and advices for the beginners First, my background: - Electrical and Electronic engineer, - Software developer (20+ years) - Trader (5+ years) - Algorithmic trader (3+ years)
How I Found The Alpha:
Before algorithmic trading, I was somehow profitable tradeinvestor. Like most of you, when I began to algorithmic trading, I tried to find magic combination of technical indicators and parameters. Also I threw OHLCV and indicators data into the RNN for prediction. I saw that, even very simple strategies like famous moving average crossover is profitable under right market conditions with correct parameters. But you must watch it carefully and if you fell it is not working anymore, you must shut it down. It means you must be experienced trader to take care of your algorithm. I am a fulltime software developer, algorithmic trading was my side project also it became my hobby. I tried to learn everything about this industry. I watched and listened hundreds of hours of podcasts and videos in all my free time like commuting from home to work. These are the most useful to me: - Chat with traders: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdnzT5Tl6pAkATOiDsPhqcg - Top traders unplugged: https://www.youtube.com/usetoptraderslive - Ukspreadbetting: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnKPQUoCRb1Vu-qWwWituGQ Also I read plenty of academic papers, blog posts and this subreddit for inspiration. Inspiration came from my field, electronics. I will not give you much detail about it but I have developed a novel signal processing technique. It is a fast and natural technique which I couldn’t find any article or paper which mention this method. It can transform any interval price data into meaningful, tradable form. The best part is, it doesn't require any parameter and it adapts to changing market conditions intrinsically. These are the concepts that inspire me: - Information Theory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_theory - Signal Processing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signal_processing - ADC: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analog-to-digital_converter
Output of the process can be used to develop endless type of profitable strategies. I made some money with different momentum based strategies while thinking about how I can use this technique more efficiently. I like to combine different fields. I think trading and life itself have many things in common. So beside general trading concepts, I think that I can try to implement concepts of the life. Also because of the parameterless design, it's more like a decision making process than an optimization problem. I searched proverbs and advices for better decision making. I handled them one by one and thought how I could implement them in a unified strategy while preserving the parameterless design. In time, this process was significantly improved stability and reliability while it was evolving from momentum to mean reversion. These are some proverbs which I use them at various aspects of the algorithm:
- “The bamboo that bends is stronger than the oak that resists.” (Japanese proverb) - "When the rainwater rises and descends down to where you want to cross, wait until it settles." (Sun-Tzu) - "If you do not expect the unexpected you will not find it, for it is not to be reached by search or trail" (Heraclitus)
If you wonder how I implement them in the code, think about the last one; how do you define the unexpected, how to wait for it and how to prepare your algorithm to generate profit. By the way, I strongly recommend: The Art of War (Sun-Tzu)
I have plenty of ideas waiting to be tested and problems that need to be solved. Nevertheless these are the some of the backtest results, for the time being: Crypto: - Market fee and spread are considered, slippage is not. - For multiple assets testing; Survivorship bias was attempted to be eliminated using historical market rank of the assets. Data is acquired from coinmarketcap.com weekly report. ETH / BTC BNB / BTC Binance Historical Top 100 / BTC Other Markets: My main focus is crypto trading. But all the improvements are cross checked in different markets and intervals and validated empirically and logically. It can’t beat every asset and every interval but it tends to work profitably across them. https://preview.redd.it/l865fw6mjfd51.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff217d35637b41e26db8d7cfc3df14c3fb7ec14e Live: The algorithm is running live for over 1.5 years with evolving strategies I mention before. The last one is running for months.
Warnings and Advices:
- Bugs: A few months ago, before bedtime, I released new version for fixing small cosmetic bug and gone to sleep. When I woke up, I saw that nearly 40% of my account wiped out in a few hours. Instead of live settings, I published test settings. It was very painful. I have been coding since childhood, so everyone must be careful. I recommend, implement hard limit for stopping the algorithm. - Fully Automatic Strategy: Finding an edge is not enough. If you need fully automated trading system, you need a portfolio manager (a lot of research is going on at this field) and especially an asset selector mechanism which is maybe more important than the edge itself. If your algorithm is not be able to select which assets to trade, you must select manually. It's not an easy task and it's prone to error. I was very lucky with that: A mechanism already contained in the algorithm was used to rank and select the assets based on their momentums. - Fee-Spread: Because of the market fee and spread, trading is a negative sum game. Do not ignore it when backtesting your algorithm. - Slippage: It's really a problem for low volume assets like penny stocks and lower market cap crypto currencies. Stay away from them or play with small capital or find a way to determine how much money you can use. - Latency: Don’t think it's a HFT only problem. If your algorithm synchronize multiple assets data from the market and run calculations before sending order back to the market, you lose significant amount of time. This usually causes losses that you have not considered before, especially in a volatile environment. Also if you want to develop realtime strategy, you must seriously consider what you will do in downtime. - Datasource: This is the most important part for preparation before developing you strategy. If you don’t have good, reliable data; you cannot develop a good strategy. For free data for various market; I suggest investing.com, but you should consider that volume data is not provided. For crypto, all of the exchanges provide their real data for any asset and any interval, you can use them freely. Also you can buy data , especially if you want intraday data, but I can't suggest any because I never tested them. - Biases: Before developing algorithm, please take a look at and understand the common biases like: Survivorship bias, Look-ahead bias, Time period bias. Or you can be sure that you will face them when you go live. - Live trading: When you think your algorithm can make money, don’t wait till perfection. Go live as soon as possible with small capital to wake up from your dreams and face with the facts early. - Psychology: If your education is based on STEM and you don’t have trading experience, it’s not easy in the real world to swallow all those ups and downs that you see in minutes during backtest. It can affect your mood and your life much more than you think. I suggest, work with a professional trader or only invest what you can really afford to lose.
After over 3 years of journey, I have a profitable algorithm that I trust. I was supposed to lie on the beach and drink beer while my algorithm printing money. But I am consistently checking it’s health and I have always things to do like all software development projects. I posted some of the backtest results, but I don’t know are they considered P/L Porn or not. If so, I can remove it. Sorry about mysterious parts of this post. I removed some parts unwillingly before posting, but there is really a thin line between giving away your edge freely (also it means loosing it) and inspiring people to find their own way.
“Non est ad astra mollis e terris via" - Seneca
For those engineers and EE students who are bombing my inbox for guessing what I did; I can not write all of you in private, also I want to explain it publicly. I must say, you are on the wrong way. If I open sourced the signal processing part, probably it doesnt mean anything to you and you can not turn it into a profitable algorithm. I have to clarify that; before I developed the technique, I knew what I am looking for exactly. Signal processing is not magically trading the market, I am trading the market. it's just a tool to do what is in my mind near perfectly. Also proverbs are the way of thinking. I read them and think if it means anything for trading. Lastly watch the Kung Fu Panda :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHvCQEr_ETk
I'm kinda ok with MCO -> CRO Swap; a indepth personal view
EDIT: this post https://www.reddit.com/Crypto_com/comments/i2yhuz/open_letter_to_kris_from_one_of_cdcs_biggest/ from u/CryptoMines expresses my sentiments and concerns better than I could ever put into words myself. I'd say read his/her post instead. Very long post ahead, but TL;DR, I actually see this swap as a positive change, despite fearing for what it may do to my portofolio, and having mixed feelings about its consequences on CDC reputation.Before I start, for the sake of context and bias, here's my personal situation as a CDC user:
I'm just a average Joe, with a 500 MCO Jade card. I bough 50 MCO at 5,22€ in September 2019 and staked for Ruby, then bough 440 MCO at 2.47€ in March 2020 and upgraded to Jade. The total amount of MCO I own is currently 515, and everything above the 500 stake is cashback rewards.
I bought MCO exclusively for the card and bonus Earn interest benefits, and had no plans to unstake my MCO. Now with the swap, definetly won't unstake.
The MCO -> CRO conversion rates increased the fiat value of my MCO in about 1000€.
I own a decent amount of CRO, wich I bought at ~0,031€ in March 2020.
The country where I live is crypto friendly and completely crypto-tax free; I only have to pay income tax if I deposit a certain threshold of fiat in my bank.
Take all these factors into account as possible (if not major) influencers or bias on my opinions; both the emotional and economical ones. Call me a fool or a devil's advocate if you want, but keep your torches and pitchforks down. As we say here on Reddit: "Remember the human".----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Like all of you, I woke up to find this anouncement, wich came right the #[email protected] out of nowere, and gives you little to no options. Good or bad, this announcement arrived as basicly a "comply or die" choice. Emotionally, this came as both terrifying and disgusting; but rationally, I cannot blame CDC for it. Because wether we like it or not, CDC is a centralized company, and the MCO tokens were never a stock or legally binding contract; something wich pretty much every crypto company or ICO warns in their T&C and risk warnings. Not to mention the mostly unregulated status of the cryptocurrency and. I'll call this "dishonest" any day, but I cannot see it as a "scammy" since I can't see how they broke any rules or terms. A scammer would take your money/assets away, but CDC is offering you to swap it for another asset wich you can sell right away if you want. And at current price, it is still worth more or less as much fiat as MCO cost at the 5 $/€ wich was more or less the comunity standard used for calculating the card prices. And by that, I mean that the fiat value of 50/500/5000 MCO (as CRO) is actually not far from the 250/2500/25'000 $/€ that the comunity commonly used as standard when calculating the ROI and (under)valuation of MCO. So CDC is at least trying to give us the option to get (some) our money back, and not at a unfair rate. If you happened to buy MCO at a price higher than this, I can't see how that's CDC's fault, just as I don't see anyone blaming Bitcoin or Altcoins for getting them stuck at the top of the 2017 bubble burst. I read many posts in this reddit calling this a "backstab" and "betrayal" of early investors and for the people who "believed in MCO". Emotionally, I share your sentiment.But after thinking it for a while, I'd say this was actually very rewarding for early investors and long term MCO supporters. As CDC clearly sates in the swap rules; nobody is going to lose their card tier or MCO stake benefits (at least not yet), and your stake DOES NOT unstake automatically after 180 days. Actually, so far they never did unstake automatically, you had to manually unstake yourself. With this in mind, everyone who already got their cards, or at least staked MCO to reserve one, basicly got them 3-5 times cheaper than future users; and IMHO, now the $/€ price of cards feels more fair and sustainable compared to their benefits.So in a sense, everyone who supported and believed on the MCO for its utility (i.e. the card and app benefits) has been greatly rewarded with perks that they get to keep, but are now out of reach for a lot of people.Likewise, the people who believed and invested in CRO (for whatever reason), have also been rewarded, as their CRO tokens now have more utility. So either the price of CRO crashes down to around 0.05 $/€, or the people who bought MCO/CRO early or cheap are now massively benefited. But then again, so is everyone who bought or mined Bitcoin in its early days, or invested in Bitcoin at crucial points of its history... how is that unfair? Some people bought Ethereum at 1'400 $ on a mix of hopes/promises that it would continue to rise; it didn't. And even today with DeFi and ETH 2.0 ever closer, it is still far from that price. And I know what some of you are thinking: "The cards aren't avaiable in my country yet, that's why I didn't buy/stake."Well, they weren't avaiable in my country either when I staked 50 MCO. Heck, the cards weren't avaiable in anyones country when MCO started, but many people still bought it and staked it. That's exacly what "early adopter", "long supporter" and "believing in MCO" means. On the other hand, the people who invested on MCO as a speculative asset and decided to HODL and hoard MCO, hoping for its price to moon and then sell MCO at big profit, had their dreams mercilessly crushed by this swap... and good lord, I feel their pain.But this is also where I'll commit the sin of being judgemental, because IMHO, speculating on MCO never made any sense to me; MCO was a utility token, not a value token, so it should not (and could not) ever be worth more than the value of its utility. That's basicly how stablecoins and PAXG are able to stay stable; because nobody will pay more/less than the value of the asset/service they represent. Tough now that I'm looking at the new card stake tiers in CRO, I have to give credit to the MCO hodlers I just now criticised; maybe you were right all along. Unless the price of CRO crashes or corrects, I wich case, I un-rest my case. One thing I'll agree with everyone tough, is that I fell that CDC just suckerpunched it's comunity. Because even if we have no vote on its decisions (wich again, we aren't necessarily entitled to, since they are a privante and centralized business) they should/could have warned that this was in their plans well in advance; if anything to allow those who wouldn't like it to exit this train calmly. Also the CRO stake duration reset. The mandatory reset of your CRO stake for taking advantage of the early swap bonus feels like another gut-punch. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now that we got emotional feelings out of the way, here's my sentiment about how this will affect the overall CDC ecossystem. One common criticism of the sustainability of MCO was that its supply cap could never allow a large number of cards to be issued, and how could CDC keep paying the cashbacks and rebates. On the oposite corner, one of the major criticisms of the sustainability of CRO, was it's ridiculously huge supply cap and inflation caused by the gradual un-freezing and release of more CRO into the system. But now that MCO and CRO became one, it might just have made both issues more sustainable. Now the huge supply cap of CRO makes more sense, as it allows a much larger number of future users to stake for cards (at higher costs, but still). And because most card cashback is small parcels, this large supply also ensures that CDC can keep paying said cashbacks for a long time; especially since it can be semi-renewable trough the trading fees we pay in CRO. Before this, the MCO you got as cashback had no use, other than selling it for fiat or speculate on its price. But CRO can be used, at the very least, to receive a discount on trading fees. And everytime you pay trading fees in CRO or spend CRO on a Syndicate event, some of that CRO goes back to CDC, wich they can use to keep paying the cahsback/rebates. And keep in mind, the technicalities of CRO can be changed, as well as the perks and utilities it can be used for. So even if this current model doesn't fix everything (wich it probably doesn't) it can still be changed to patch problems or expand its use. Another obvious potentially positive outcome of this, is that now CDC only has to focus on 1 token, so it makes it easier to manage and drive its value. People complained that CDC was neglecting MCO over promoting CRO, but now they can focus on both services (cards/exchange) at the same time. Sure, this might not bring much advantage to the common customer, but its probably a major resource saver and optimizer at corporate levels; wich in the long term ultimately benefits its customers. Much like Ethereum is undergoing major changes to ensure its scalability, the crypto companies themselves also have to change to acommodate the growing number of users, especially as the cryptomarket and DeFi are growing and becoming more competitive. Business strategies that were once successfull became obsolete, and exchanges that once held near-monopolies had to adjust to rising competitors. There is no reason why CDC shouldn't keep up with this, or at least try to. Point is, the financial markets, crypto or otherwise, are not a status quo haven. And when something is wrong, something has to be changed, even if it costs. The very rise of cryptocurrencies and blockchain, wich is why we are here in the first place, is a perfect example of this, as it experiments and provides alternatives to legacy/traditional products and technologies. Was this the best solution to its current problems? Is this what will protect us as customers from a potentially unsustainable business model? I have no idea. This change ripped me too from my previous more or less relaxed status quo (the safety of the value of the CRO I bough for cheap), along with CRO late investors wich now probably fear for the devaluation of their CRO. To say nothing of the blow this represents for my trust (and I believe everyone elses trust) on CDC and its public relations. It's not what CDC did, it's how they did it. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wether you actually bothered to read all I wrote or just skip everything (can't blame you), I'm eager to hear your opinions and whatever criticisms on my opinions you may have. If you just want to vent at me, you are welcome too; now you can raise your pitchforks and torches.
Lyfcoin - The best solution for ERC 20 token holders
To date, it is safe to say that holders of digital tokens can receive hundreds of percent of profits over the course of a year, and I can confirm this from my own experience. My deposit has already increased more than a hundred times and I am very grateful to the blockchain technology and its developers. Therefore, it is not surprising that many companies are beginning to implement digital technologies in their ecosystems, issue their own tokens, which can perform the function of receiving additional discounts, bonuses, reduce Commission when trading on exchanges, and bring dividends to their owners. Professional traders earn several thousand dollars a week in this field, but not everyone has the same knowledge, experience and time for this activity. But the solution to this problem is a project called Lyfcoin, which provides an opportunity to get additional income for staking tokens of the ERC20 format! The site has a special calculator, packages with different characteristics, so everyone can choose the best suitable option. The company is officially registered and meets all legal requirements of the European Union. Thanks to this idea, the crypto community will no longer need to worry about losing time until the price of the token increases, some of them have a number that varies from a few dozen to several hundred. The project offers a good percentage of profit and Lyfcoin tokens can also increase it.
$XTI - XSTAKE a DEFI platform you can yield farm by just holding! Universal Basic Income to holders
My apologies, i got the ticker wrong it is $XTK not $XTI
What is XTake ($XTK)?
Xtake.finance is born as a global DeFi ecosystem based on the XTK governance token. Essentially it is another easy and constant passive income / yield farming token.
So what makes it different?
To be an XTaker you only need register an ETH address and hold the XTK tokens. This means all you need to do in order to stake and yield farm is to just own the token! Different amounts of owned $XTAKE will yield more rewards which are posted below and are rewarded monthly: - XTAKER | 100.000 - | XTK 5% Yield - XTAKER | SILVER- 500.000 | XTK 10% Yield - XTAKER | GOLD - 2.000.000 | XTK 25% Yield Ideally, Xtaker wants to make this process of yield farming easy and accessible for all and as simple as just purchasing the token. To make this product accessible to all, they are planning on creating a mobile app, making it easy to connect your ETH wallet and see your yield rewards through a dashboard.
But wait can't I just buy it right before the monthly snapshot and get the yield rewards?
The Xtake team has created a smart contract that randomly checks your balance 3 times a day to see if you are holding your Xtake tokens in your wallet. The yield rewards are then collected based on the average of all the snapshots multiplied by the yield reward you are tiered in.
Liquidity Yield Farming?
The main goal of the $Xtake product is to provide the maximum amount of freedom to people using the platform. That is why with this program you won’t need to lock your tokens in Uniswap for a certain time, you are going to be able to add or remove your liquidity whenever you want. How does it work? (Taken from website) The system will evaluate all the liquidity provider addresses in Uniswap and make 3 dailly random snapshots at diferent hours to save the balance of the liquidity providers (their addresses). This will allow us to calculate a daily average of the 3 snapshots and so on during 7 days. By the end of each week we will have the weekly liquidity average balance of each liquidity providing address in the pool. XTK in liquidity: 0 to 499.999 === 2,5% weekly reward related to average balance500.000 to 1.999.999 === 5% weekly reward related to average balance2.000.000 or more === 12,5% weekly reward related to average balance
Are there any drawbacks to this system?
Yes, the people who get in early will profit much more from yield farming than those who get in later. Also the pool of yield farming will eventually be drained after the course of 7 years. Additionally, right now the price of entry for 2,000,000 $XTAKE for the sweet 25% yield reward is 7.5 eth. This can dramatically increase in price as the token grows in value and even a small 2x would make it now cost 15eth to get 25% yield rewards.
Can I trust the team not to rugflip / are tokens locked?
Currently the tokens are locked in unicrypt and the raised ETH is being pooled into the liquidity pool on Uniswap. The team has been working on this product for 3 months and just finally released it yesterday so you are still relatively early if you are finding this post now.
Other notes / FAQS
- What was the presale price? It was 0.0010$ / XTK for the public sale and 0.006$ / XTK for the presale (presalers bought into the product in june and there were not many). - Where is it currently traded? Currently the only way to buy the token is on UniSwap. (Link provided below as info) - What is the marketcap? Market cap at time of post is 300k ~ .0017$ per token - Is there a place I can go to join the community and ask more questions? https://t.me/xtakefinance (Where I hang out!)
I haven't been in many yield farming projects early because I just started trading crypto again last week. However, I think this is an opportunity to get into a project that is new with devs that are working hard and not going to rugflip (They are active on telegram). I personally enjoy the activeness of the community as well! My only complaint is that the website and the whitepaper is full of grammar issues and typos (which makes me reserved on saying how good their coding is). Other than that I am excited to see this project's growth and enjoy the idea of making crypto products easier to understand and accessible for all.
Really disappointed with the 5k USD trading volume requirement for the Syndicate
I staked 10,000 CRO on the exchange a few days ago (at the day of the DAI event). 10,000 CRO is currently worth about 1630 USD. Based on past Syndicate results, I was calculating with a profit of ~17 USD per week from the syndicate, about 442 USD in 6 months independent of the CRO price. Combined with the 20% staking benefit and the pay benefit, this made it worth the risk of having my funds locked up for 6 months and not being able to take profits. A few hours after I staked, it was announced that future syndicate events require 5,000 USD trading volume to participate. I am not a trader and was counting on the benefits from the Syndicate when I made my investment. I find it very sketchy that terms are changed so suddenly. I am now stuck with 10k CRO locked up for 6 months with the only benefit of earning me a few % more than the 14% I would get in flexible crypto earn where I have the flexibility to sell at any time. I am really disappointed in CDC.
How many people really understand what they’re buying, especially when it comes to highly specialized hardware companies? Most NVidia investors seem to be relying on a vague idea of how the company should thrive “in the future”, as their GPUs are ostensibly used for Artificial Intelligence, Cloud, holograms, etc. Having been shocked by how this company is represented in the media, I decided to lay out how this business works, doing my part to fight for reality. With what’s been going on in markets, I don’t like my chances but here goes: Let’s start with… How does NVDA make money? NVDA is in the business of semiconductor design. As a simplified image in your head, you can imagine this as designing very detailed and elaborate posters. Their engineers create circuit patterns for printing onto semiconductor wafers. NVDA then pays a semiconductor foundry (the printer – generally TSMC) to create chips with those patterns on them. Simply put, NVDA’s profits represent the difference between the price at which they can sell those chips, less the cost of printing, and less the cost of paying their engineers to design them. Notably, after the foundry prints the chips, NVDA also has to pay (I say pay, but really it is more like “sell at a discount to”) their “add-in board” (AIB) partners to stick the chips onto printed circuit boards (what you might imagine as green things with a bunch of capacitors on them). That leads to the final form in which buyers experience the GPU. What is a GPU? NVDA designs chips called GPUs (Graphical Processing Units). Initially, GPUs were used for the rapid processing and creation of images, but their use cases have expanded over time. You may be familiar with the CPU (Central Processing Unit). CPUs sit at the core of a computer system, doing most of the calculation, taking orders from the operating system (e.g. Windows, Linux), etc. AMD and Intel make CPUs. GPUs assist the CPU with certain tasks. You can think of the CPU as having a few giant very powerful engines. The GPU has a lot of small much less powerful engines. Sometimes you have to do a lot of really simple tasks that don’t require powerful engines to complete. Here, the act of engaging the powerful engines is a waste of time, as you end up spending most of your time revving them up and revving them down. In that scenario, it helps the CPU to hand that task over to the GPU in order to “accelerate” the completion of the task. The GPU only revs up a small engine for each task, and is able to rev up all the small engines simultaneously to knock out a large number of these simple tasks at the same time. Remember the GPU has lots of engines. The GPU also has an edge in interfacing a lot with memory but let’s not get too technical. Who uses NVDA’s GPUs? There are two main broad end markets for NVDA’s GPUs – Gaming and Professional. Let’s dig into each one: The Gaming Market: A Bit of Ancient History (Skip if impatient) GPUs were first heavily used for gaming in arcades. They then made their way to consoles, and finally PCs. NVDA started out in the PC phase of GPU gaming usage. They weren’t the first company in the space, but they made several good moves that ultimately led to a very strong market position. Firstly, they focused on selling into OEMs – guys like the equivalent of today’s DELL/HP/Lenovo – , which allowed a small company to get access to a big market without having to create a lot of relationships. Secondly, they focused on the design aspect of the GPU, and relied on their Asian supply chain to print the chip, to package the chip and to install in on a printed circuit board – the Asian supply chain ended up being the best in semis. But the insight that really let NVDA dominate was noticing that some GPU manufacturers were focusing on keeping hardware-accelerated Transform and Lighting as a Professional GPU feature. As a start-up, with no professional GPU business to disrupt, NVidia decided their best ticket into the big leagues was blowing up the market by including this professional grade feature into their gaming product. It worked – and this was a real masterstroke – the visual and performance improvements were extraordinary. 3DFX, the initial leader in PC gaming GPUs, was vanquished, and importantly it happened when funding markets shut down with the tech bubble bursting and after 3DFX made some large ill-advised acquisitions. Consequently 3DFX, went from hero to zero, and NVDA bought them for a pittance out of bankruptcy, acquiring the best IP portfolio in the industry. Some more Modern History This is what NVDA’s pure gaming card revenue looks like over time – NVDA only really broke these out in 2005 (note by pure, this means ex-Tegra revenues): 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394577731223552/tumblr_Ikb8g9Cu9sxh2ERno So what is the history here? Well, back in the late 90s when GPUs were first invented, they were required to play any 3D game. As discussed in the early history above, NVDA landed a hit product to start with early and got a strong burst of growth: revenues of 160M in 1998 went to 1900M in 2002. But then NVDA ran into strong competition from ATI (later purchased and currently owned by AMD). While NVDA’s sales struggled to stay flat from 2002 to 2004, ATI’s doubled from 1Bn to 2Bn. NVDA’s next major win came in 2006, with the 8000 series. ATI was late with a competing product, and NVDA’s sales skyrocketed – as can be seen in the graph above. With ATI being acquired by AMD they were unfocused for some time, and NVDA was able to keep their lead for an extended period. Sales slowed in 2008/2009 but that was due to the GFC – people don’t buy expensive GPU hardware in recessions. And then we got to 2010 and the tide changed. Growth in desktop PCs ended. Here is a chart from Statista: 📷https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394674172919808/tumblr_OgCnNwTyqhMhAE9r9 This resulted in two negative secular trends for Nvidia. Firstly, with the decline in popularity of desktop PCs, growth in gaming GPUs faded as well (below is a chart from Jon Peddie). Note that NVDA sells discrete GPUs, aka DT (Desktop) Discrete. Integrated GPUs are mainly made by Intel (these sit on the motherboard or with the CPU). 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394688079200256/tumblr_rTtKwOlHPIVUj8e7h You can see from the chart above that discrete desktop GPU sales are fading faster than integrated GPU sales. This is the other secular trend hurting NVDA’s gaming business. Integrated GPUs are getting better and better, taking over a wider range of tasks that were previously the domain of the discrete GPU. Surprisingly, the most popular eSports game of recent times – Fortnite – only requires Intel HD 4000 graphics – an Integrated GPU from 2012! So at this point you might go back to NVDA’s gaming sales, and ask the question: What happened in 2015? How is NVDA overcoming these secular trends? The answer consists of a few parts.Firstly, AMD dropped the ball in 2015. As you can see in this chart, sourced from 3DCenter, AMD market share was halved in 2015, due to a particularly poor product line-up: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394753459994624/tumblr_J7vRw9y0QxMlfm6Xd Following this, NVDA came out with Pascal in 2016 – a very powerful offering in the mid to high end part of the GPU market. At the same time, AMD was focusing on rebuilding and had no compelling mid or high end offerings. AMD mainly focused on maintaining scale in the very low end. Following that came 2017 and 2018: AMD’s offering was still very poor at the time, but cryptomining drove demand for GPUs to new levels, and AMD’s GPUs were more compelling from a price-performance standpoint for crypto mining initially, perversely leading to AMD gaining share. NVDA quickly remedied that by improving their drivers to better mine crypto, regaining their relative positioning, and profiting in a big way from the crypto boom. Supply that was calibrated to meet gaming demand collided with cryptomining demand and Average Selling Prices of GPUs shot through the roof. Cryptominers bought top of the line GPUs aggressively. A good way to see changes in crypto demand for GPUs is the mining profitability of Ethereum: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394769378443264/tumblr_cmBtR9gm8T2NI9jmQ This leads us to where we are today. 2019 saw gaming revenues drop for NVDA. Where are they likely to head? The secular trends of falling desktop sales along with falling discrete GPU sales have reasserted themselves, as per the Jon Peddie research above. Cryptomining profitability has collapsed. AMD has come out with a new architecture, NAVI, and the 5700XT – the first Iteration, competes effectively with NVDA in the mid-high end space on a price/performance basis. This is the first real competition from AMD since 2014. NVDA can see all these trends, and they tried to respond. Firstly, with volumes clearly declining, and likely with a glut of second-hand GPUs that can make their way to gamers over time from the crypto space, NVDA decided to pursue a price over volume strategy. They released their most expensive set of GPUs by far in the latest Turing series. They added a new feature, Ray Tracing, by leveraging the Tensor Cores they had created for Professional uses, hoping to use that as justification for higher prices (more on this in the section on Professional GPUs). Unfortunately for NVDA, gamers have responded quite poorly to Ray Tracing – it caused performance issues, had poor support, poor adoption, and the visual improvements in most cases are not particularly noticeable or relevant. The last recession led to gaming revenues falling 30%, despite NVDA being in a very strong position at the time vis-à-vis AMD – this time around their position is quickly slipping and it appears that the recession is going to be bigger. Additionally, the shift away from discrete GPUs in gaming continues. To make matters worse for NVDA, AMD won the slots in both the New Xbox and the New PlayStation, coming out later this year. The performance of just the AMD GPU in those consoles looks to be competitive with NVidia products that currently retail for more than the entire console is likely to cost. Consider that usually you have to pair that NVidia GPU with a bunch of other expensive hardware. The pricing and margin impact of this console cycle on NVDA is likely to be very substantially negative. It would be prudent to assume a greater than 30% fall in gaming revenues from the very elevated 2019 levels, with likely secular decline to follow. The Professional Market: A Bit of Ancient History (again, skip if impatient) As it turns out, graphical accelerators were first used in the Professional market, long before they were employed for Gaming purposes. The big leader in the space was a company called Silicon Graphics, who sold workstations with custom silicon optimised for graphical processing. Their sales were only $25Mn in 1985, but by 1997 they were doing 3.6Bn in revenue – truly exponential growth. Unfortunately for them, from that point on, discrete GPUs took over, and their highly engineered, customised workstations looked exorbitantly expensive in comparison. Sales sank to 500mn by 2006 and, with no profits in sight, they ended up filing for bankruptcy in 2009. Competition is harsh in the semiconductor industry. Initially, the Professional market centred on visualisation and design, but it has changed over time. There were a lot of players and lot of nuance, but I am going to focus on more recent times, as they are more relevant to NVidia. Some More Modern History NVDA’s Professional business started after its gaming business, but we don’t have revenue disclosures that show exactly when it became relevant. This is what we do have – going back to 2005: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394785029472256/tumblr_fEcYAzdstyh6tqIsI In the beginning, Professional revenues were focused on the 3D visualisation end of the spectrum, with initial sales going into workstations that were edging out the customised builds made by Silicon Graphics. Fairly quickly, however, GPUs added more and more functionality and started to turn into general parallel data processors rather than being solely optimised towards graphical processing. As this change took place, people in scientific computing noticed, and started using GPUs to accelerate scientific workloads that involve very parallel computation, such as matrix manipulation. This started at the workstation level, but by 2007 NVDA decided to make a new line-up of Tesla series cards specifically suited to scientific computing. The professional segment now have several points of focus:
GPUs used in workstations for things such as CAD graphical processing (Quadro Line)
GPUs used in workstations for computational workloads such as running engineering simulations (Quadro Line)
GPUs used in workstations for machine learning applications (Quadro line.. but can use gaming cards as well for this)
GPUs used by enterprise customers for high performance computing (such as modelling oil wells) (Tesla Line)
GPUs used by enterprise customers for machine learning projects (Tesla Line)
GPUs used by hyperscalers (mostly for machine learning projects) (Tesla Line)
In more recent times, given the expansion of the Tesla line, NVDA has broken up reporting into Professional Visualisation (Quadro Line) and Datacenter (Tesla Line). Here are the revenue splits since that reporting started: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394798232158208/tumblr_3AdufrCWUFwLgyQw2 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394810632601600/tumblr_2jmajktuc0T78Juw7 It is worth stopping here and thinking about the huge increase in sales delivered by the Tesla line. The reason for this huge boom is the sudden increase in interest in numerical techniques for machine learning. Let’s go on a brief detour here to understand what machine learning is, because a lot of people want to hype it but not many want to tell you what it actually is. I have the misfortune of being very familiar with the industry, which prevented me from buying into the hype. Oops – sometimes it really sucks being educated. What is Machine Learning? At a very high level, machine learning is all about trying to get some sort of insight out of data. Most of the core techniques used in machine learning were developed a long time ago, in the 1950s and 1960s. The most common machine learning technique, which most people have heard of and may be vaguely familiar with, is called regression analysis. Regression analysis involves fitting a line through a bunch of datapoints. The most common type of regression analysis is called “Ordinary Least Squares” OLS regression, and that type of regression has a “closed form” solution, which means that there is a very simple calculation you can do to fit an OLS regression line to data. As it happens, fitting a line through points is not only easy to do, it also tends to be the main machine learning technique that people want to use, because it is very intuitive. You can make good sense of what the data is telling you and can understand the machine learning model you are using. Obviously, regression analysis doesn’t require a GPU! However, there is another consideration in machine learning: if you want to use a regression model, you still need a human to select the data that you want to fit the line through. Also, sometimes the relationship doesn’t look like a line, but rather it might look like a curve. In this case, you need a human to “transform” the data before you fit a line through it in order to make the relationship linear. So people had another idea here: what if instead of getting a person to select the right data to analyse, and the right model to apply, you could just get a computer to do that? Of course the problem with that is that computers are really stupid. They have no preconceived notion of what data to use or what relationship would make sense, so what they do is TRY EVERYTHING! And everything involves trying a hell of a lot of stuff. And trying a hell of a lot of stuff, most of which is useless garbage, involves a huge amount of computation. People tried this for a while through to the 1980s, decided it was useless, and dropped it… until recently. What changed? Well we have more data now, and we have a lot more computing power, so we figured lets have another go at it. As it happens, the premier technique for trying a hell of a lot of stuff (99.999% of which is garbage you throw away) is called “Deep Learning”. Deep learning is SUPER computationally intensive, and that computation happens to involve a lot of matrix multiplication. And guess what just happens to have been doing a lot of matrix multiplication? GPUs! Here is a chart that, for obvious reasons, lines up extremely well with the boom in Tesla GPU sales: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618394825774989312/tumblr_IZ3ayFDB0CsGdYVHW Now we need to realise a few things here. Deep Learning is not some magic silver bullet. There are specific applications where it has proven very useful – primarily areas that have a very large number of very weak relationships between bits of data that sum up into strong relationships. An example of ones of those is Google Translate. On the other hand, in most analytical tasks, it is most useful to have an intuitive understanding of the data and to fit a simple and sensible model to it that is explainable. Deep learning models are not explainable in an intuitive manner. This is not only because they are complicated, but also because their scattershot technique of trying everything leaves a huge amount of garbage inside the model that cancels itself out when calculating the answer, but it is hard to see how it cancels itself out when stepping through it. Given the quantum of hype on Deep learning and the space in general, many companies are using “Deep Learning”, “Machine Learning” and “AI” as marketing. Not many companies are actually generating significant amounts of tangible value from Deep Learning. Back to the Competitive Picture For the Tesla Segment So NVDA happened to be in the right place at the right time to benefit from the Deep Learning hype. They happened to have a product ready to go and were able to charge a pretty penny for their product. But what happens as we proceed from here? Firstly, it looks like the hype from Deep Learning has crested, which is not great from a future demand perspective. Not only that, but we really went from people having no GPUs, to people having GPUs. The next phase is people upgrading their old GPUs. It is much harder to sell an upgrade than to make the first sale. Not only that, but GPUs are not the ideal manifestation of silicon for Deep Learning. NVDA themselves effectively admitted that with their latest iteration in the Datacentre, called Ampere. High Performance Computing, which was the initial use case for Tesla GPUs, was historically all about double precision floating point calculations (FP64). High precision calculations are required for simulations in aerospace/oil & gas/automotive. NVDA basically sacrificed HPC and shifted further towards Deep Learning with Ampere, announced last Thursday. The FP64 performance of the A100 (the latest Ampere chip) increased a fairly pedestrian 24% from the V100, increasing from 7.8 to 9.7 TF. Not a surprise that NVDA lost El Capitan to AMD, given this shift away from a focus on HPC. Instead, NVDA jacked up their Tensor Cores (i.e. not the GPU cores) and focused very heavily on FP16 computation (a lot less precise than FP64). As it turns out, FP16 is precise enough for Deep Learning, and NVDA recognises that. The future industry standard is likely to be BFloat 16 – the format pioneered by Google, who lead in Deep Learning. Ampere now does 312 TF of BF16, which compares to the 420 TF of Google’s TPU V3 – Google’s Machine Learning specific processor. Not quite up to the 2018 board from Google, but getting better – if they cut out all of the Cuda cores and GPU functionality maybe they could get up to Google’s spec. And indeed this is the problem for NVDA: when you make a GPU it has a large number of different use cases, and you provide a single product that meets all of these different use cases. That is a very hard thing to do, and explains why it has been difficult for competitors to muscle into the GPU space. On the other hand, when you are making a device that does one thing, such as deep learning, it is a much simpler thing to do. Google managed to do it with no GPU experience and is still ahead of NVDA. It is likely that Intel will be able to enter this space successfully, as they have widely signalled with the Xe. There is of course the other large negative driver for Deep Learning, and that is the recession we are now in. Demand for GPU instances on Amazon has collapsed across the board, as evidenced by the fall in pricing. The below graph shows one example: this data is for renting out a single Tesla V100 GPU on AWS, which isthe typical thing to do in an early exploratory phase for a Deep Learning model: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618396177958944768/tumblr_Q86inWdeCwgeakUvh With Deep Learning not delivering near-term tangible results, it is the first thing being cut. On their most recent conference call, IBM noted weakness in their cognitive division (AI), and noted weaker sales of their power servers, which is the line that houses Enterprise GPU servers at IBM. Facebook cancelled their AI residencies for this year, and Google pushed theirs out. Even if NVDA can put in a good quarter due to their new product rollout (Ampere), the future is rapidly becoming a very stormy place. For the Quadro segment The Quadro segment has been a cash cow for a long time, generating dependable sales and solid margins. AMD just decided to rock the boat a bit. Sensing NVDA’s focus on Deep Learning, AMD seems to be focusing on HPC – the Radeon VII announced recently with a price point of $1899 takes aim at NVDAs most expensive Quadro, the GV100, priced at $8999. It does 6.5 TFLOPS of FP64 Double precision, whereas the GV100 does 7.4 – talk about shaking up a quiet segment. Pulling things together Let’s go back to what NVidia fundamentally does – paying their engineers to design chips, getting TSMC to print those chips, and getting board partners in Taiwan to turn them into the final product. We have seen how a confluence of several pieces of extremely good fortune lined up to increase NVidia’s sales and profits tremendously: first on the Gaming side, weak competition from AMD until 2014, coupled with a great product in form of Pascal in 2016, followed by a huge crypto driven boom in 2017 and 2018, and on the Professional side, a sudden and unexpected increase in interest in Deep Learning driving Tesla demand from 2017-2019 sky high. It is worth noting what these transient factors have done to margins. When unexpected good things happen to a chip company, sales go up a lot, but there are no costs associated with those sales. Strong demand means that you can sell each chip for a higher price, but no additional design work is required, and you still pay the printer, TSMC, the same amount of money. Consequently NVDA’s margins have gone up substantially: well above their 11.9% long term average to hit a peak of 33.2%, and more recently 26.5%: 📷 https://hyperinflation2020.tumblr.com/private/618396192166100992/tumblr_RiWaD0RLscq4midoP The question is, what would be a sensible margin going forward? Obviously 33% operating margin would attract a wall of competition and get competed away, which is why they can only be temporary. However, NVidia has shifted to having a greater proportion of its sales coming from non-OEM, and has a greater proportion of its sales coming from Professional rather than gaming. As such, maybe one can be generous and say NVDA can earn an 18% average operating margin over the next cycle. We can sense check these margins, using Intel. Intel has a long term average EBIT margin of about 25%. Intel happens to actually print the chips as well, so they collect a bigger fraction of the final product that they sell. NVDA, since it only does the design aspect, can’t earn a higher EBIT margin than Intel on average over the long term. Tesla sales have likely gone too far and will moderate from here – perhaps down to a still more than respectable $2bn per year. Gaming resumes the long-term slide in discrete GPUs, which will likely be replaced by integrated GPUs to a greater and greater extent over time. But let’s be generous and say it maintains $3.5 Bn Per year for the add in board, and let’s assume we keep getting $750mn odd of Nintendo Switch revenues(despite that product being past peak of cycle, with Nintendo themselves forecasting a sales decline). Let’s assume AMD struggles to make progress in Quadro, despite undercutting NVDA on price by 75%, with continued revenues at $1200. Add on the other 1.2Bn of Automotive, OEM and IP (I am not even counting the fact that car sales have collapsed and Automotive is likely to be down big), and we would end up with revenues of $8.65 Bn, at an average operating margin of 20% through the cycle that would have $1.75Bn of operating earnings power, and if I say that the recent Mellanox acquisition manages to earn enough to pay for all the interest on NVDAs debt, and I assume a tax rate of 15% we would have around $1.5Bn in Net income. This company currently has a market capitalisation of $209 Bn. It blows my mind that it trades on 139x what I consider to be fairly generous earnings – earnings that NVidia never even got close to seeing before the confluence of good luck hit them. But what really stuns me is the fact that investors are actually willing to extrapolate this chain of unlikely and positive events into the future. Shockingly, Intel has a market cap of 245Bn, only 40Bn more than NVDA, but Intel’s sales and profits are 7x higher. And while Intel is facing competition from AMD, it is much more likely to hold onto those sales and profits than NVDA is. These are absolutely stunning valuation disparities. If I didn’t see NVDA’s price, and I started from first principles and tried to calculate a prudent price for the company I would have estimated a$1.5Bn normalised profit, maybe on a 20x multiple giving them the benefit of the doubt despite heading into a huge recession, and considering the fact that there is not much debt and the company is very well run. That would give you a market cap of $30Bn, and a share price of $49. And it is currently $339. Wow. Obviously I’m short here!
How Profitable is Staking Compared to Other Tools?
Hello. 👋🏻 In this post, we will tell you about the profitability of crypto staking. Today, many people have made digital currencies an alternative source of income and the investor an additional way to diversify. Due to the extremely unstable situation in the market, when prices for digital currencies are falling as fast as they are growing, traders and investors began to look for new ways to make money on cryptocurrencies, in addition to mining and trading them on the exchange. One of these methods is cryptocurrency staking. Regardless of market fluctuations, thanks to staking, coin holders can receive passive income. ❓ How Profitable is Staking Compared to Other Tools? 📌 Although staking and mining are alternative ways to earn and multiply your funds, they work in different ways. Staking cryptocurrencies offers an alternative, simpler source of income compared to mining. It eliminates the need for expensive hardware and does not consume huge amounts of electricity. Unlike mining with ASICs and other equipment, the cost of resources does not change over time. 📌 Arbitration requires a large initial investment, since earnings are calculated as a percentage. Mainodes also require blocking significant funds for launch. For some masternodes, the need for holding tokens can be so high that it effectively makes your stake illiquid. 📌 Staking can be considered a convenient and less expensive way to make money on cryptocurrencies. Proponents of this solution also often say that staking provides a higher level of security, especially in terms of vulnerability to 51% attacks. This is due to the fact that network participants must compete with each other and maintain a certain level of the number of coins in their wallets. ❗️ Minereum brings the First Self Mining Smart Contract to the Crypto World. ✔️ Mining in Minereum is performed on the fly with a mathematical formula, no mining equipment is required. In Minereum, the self-mining process will last for 100,000,000 blocks (Approximately 50 years after activation to Level 2 or Level 3)! ✔ The total MNE balance within the Genesis Addresses can be sold at any time in the Minereum V2 with or without mining activated, meaning that the coins are always in circulation even if they were not fully mined. Learn more about Minereum Staking here: https://www.minereum.com https://preview.redd.it/hy04f19v8ge51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a183bfbd3c099890eeda81d328281d0bf2de442
why NEXO is the most undervalued token in the crypto space right now
NEXO token price right now: around 0.20 usd We dont know the real numbers of 2019 yet (close to dividend date in the final of the month we might get the real numbers).. but we know at least half of that (8.3M profit in the first 6 months). Lets assume NEXO made 25M profit in 2019 (2020 its probably way higher). With 25M profit in 2019.. NEXO is currently one of the top 10 projects making a lot of money in the crypto space. Using a 15 P/E ratio (some stocks like Facebook and Apple are trading around 30 P/E ratio).. NEXO should have a 375M marketcap (25M profit x 15= 375). NEXO marketcap around rn: 110M So the NEXO token is currently trading almost 4x under the fair price.. which is insane! How to calculate P/E ratio for NEXO? NEXO had around 25M profit in 2019.. and current price its 0.20 usd. 25M/560M tokens in circulation= 0.0446 EPS So.. the current P/E ratio for NEXO is 0.20/0.0446= 4.48 P/E ratio right now .. its very low!! Why the price of NEXO token its still so low? There is some reasons why the price its so low:
NEXO is not trading in big exchanges yet.. so its not easy to buy it.
NEXO not investing a lot in marketing
the lack of a dividend schedule and more transparency not helping
How to Recover Money Lost to Online Investment and Scam
Have you lost money to binary options? You can recover money you lost to binary options. Have you lost money to forex? You can recover money lost to forex. Have you lost money to bitcoin or did you lose you bitcoin or bitcoin wallet recovery phrase? You can recover lost bitcoin, money lost to bitcoin, and bitcoin recovery phrase. Have you lost money to cryptocurrency? You can recover lost cryptocurrency and money lost to cryptocurrency. Recover money lost to online investment, online scam and more. Recover all your lost funds / money by hiring a verified recovery expert. This article examine some common ways people have been losing money, especially online and with the use of technology, and how to recover all the money lost through all these different means. Let’s dive into each of them; How to Recover Money Lost to Binary Options Binary options trading hinges on a simple question; will the underlying asset be above or below a certain price at a specified time? If this happens, then you can make substantial profits with one of the most straightforward financial instruments to trade. Binary options are a derivative that can be traded on any instrument or market. They are appealing because they are quite simple and straightforward. You know precisely how much you could win, or lose even before trading. There are also no complex mathematics or calculations required. This is why they are also known as ‘all or nothing’ trades. If you are anticipating news announcements, quarterly reviews, or world trends, then you may be able to make an accurate determination as to whether the price is going to increase or decrease at a particular time in the future, making a profit. There is a whole host of derivatives to choose from. You can trade binary options on commodity value, such as gold / petroleum. You can also decide to go for a stock price, e.g. amazon and facebook. There are foreign exchange rate options, including all the major and minor pairs. Even cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin are on the menu. The nature of binary options makes it easy for people to lose money trading binary options! But the good news is that you can recover money lost to binary options. How to Recover Money Lost to Forex Forex is a short form of foreign currency and exchange. Foreign exchange is the process of changing one currency into another currency for a variety of reasons. It is mostly for commercial, trade, or tourism. According to a recent triennial report from the BIS (a global bank for national central banks), the average was more than $5.1 trillion in daily forex trading volume. The foreign exchange market is where currencies are traded. Currencies are important to most people around the world, whether they realize it or not, because currencies need to be exchanged in order to conduct foreign trade and business. If you are living in the U.S. and want to buy cheese from France, either you or the company that you buy the cheese from has to pay the French for the cheese in euros (EUR). This means that the U.S. importer would have to exchange the equivalent value of U.S. dollars (USD) into euros. The same goes for traveling. A French tourist in Egypt can't pay in euros to see the pyramids because it's not the locally accepted currency. As such, the tourist has to exchange the euros for the local currency, in this case the Egyptian pound, at the current exchange rate. The fact that forex is volatile in nature makes it easy to lose money trading forex. But you can hire a verified recovery expert to get your lost funds back. How to Recover Money Lost to Bitcoin Bitcoin (₿) is a cryptocurrency was invented in 2008 by an unknown person or group of people using the name Satoshi Nakamoto and started in 2009 when its implementation was released as open-source software. It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. Bitcoin transactions are verified by network nodes through cryptography and are recorded in a public distributed ledger known as blockchain. Bitcoins are created as a reward for a process known as bitcoin mining. They can be exchanged for other currencies, products, and services. Research carried in Cambridge estimates that in 2017, there were between 3 to 6 million people using a cryptocurrency wallet, especially bitcoin. Due to the fact that bitcoin is not well regulated, it is easy to lose bitcoin or lose money to bitcoin. How to Recover Money Lost to Cryptocurrency A cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that is usually secured by cryptography, which makes it nearly impossible to counterfeit or double-spend. Many cryptocurrencies are decentralized networks based on blockchain technology, which is a distributed ledger enforced by a disparate network of computers. A defining feature of cryptocurrencies is that they are generally not issued by any central authority, rendering them theoretically immune to government interference or manipulation. Cryptocurrencies are systems that allow for the secure payments online which are denominated in terms of virtual "tokens," which are represented by ledger entries internal to the system. "Crypto" refers to the various encryption algorithms and cryptographic techniques that safeguard these entries, such as elliptical curve encryption, public-private key pairs, and hashing functions. Central to the appeal and functionality of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is blockchain technology, which is used to keep an online ledger of all the transactions that have ever been conducted, thus providing a data structure for this ledger that is quite secure and is shared and agreed upon by the entire network of individual node, or computer maintaining a copy of the ledger. Every new block generated must be verified by each node before being confirmed, making it almost impossible to forge transaction histories. How to Recover Money Lost to Online Investment Incase you have also lost money to other forms of online investment, or casino (gambling), you have nothing to worry about. You can easily get back all your lost funds by hiring one of the verified recovery experts to help you get your money back. 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Is worth start mining with the actual situation of the cryptocurrency market?
I've been watching the market for over 3 years now. For those years I've been a student with no money to invest, and now that I'm almost out of the university and I have some money I wanna finally start on this world. For some weeks now I've been working on a planning for building a 6 GPU mining rig, all theoretical earnings calculated with NiceHash & WhatToMine. The actual theoretical profits for this one are like 250 EU month (1.40€/day per GPU) with AMD RX 5700 , having an electricity cost of o.o79EUkWH. I've compared all the actual GPUs on the market, and that's the best one I could find in terms of ROI (I start to get profits after 1 year and 1 month). I've seen some posts talking about much better profits & less ROIs but I couldn't find a better profit for a GPU rig, maybe I'm doing something wrong! To see if the theoretical numbers are right I tested them with an RTX 2060 on my own personal computer and I had a profit of 1.20 EUR /day when the theoretical profit for that GPU was about 0.80 EUR /day. So, after all those weeks comparing, thinking about a long term Investment plan and searching for LOTS of information i conclude that it's worth spending a total of 3000 EUR into mining. Now I wanna ask you guys, with the actual situation of bitcoin (going up and up) and the difficulty raising over time...is it worth investing all that money on GPU mining right now? I'm afraid about investing the money and start to see a massive decrease in my profits, either for bitcoin going down or the difficulty going up nonstop. Also, I've not exposed all my plan, but doing it this way (mining with NiceHash and with 6 AMD RX 5700) is a nice plan or there is something with better profitability/ ROI? Maybe mining myself small cryptos and then exchange them to bitcoin, etc... All knowledge is welcomed. Btw, I'm a computer science engineer, that's why I wanna start on mining instead of trading stocks, because I know how computers work and I think that my knowledge on Pc & GPUs could help me on doing this efficiently. And sorry for my "not so good English", it's my 3rd language! Thanks all. EDIT: I could also buy the GPUs & equipment for the rig on a 2nd hand market, which would totally lower the total price of the rig, reaching ROI faster and if something goes not as expected, have less losses. Ofc buying at a 2nd hand is somehow risky but maybe worthy!
General cost of UK crypto tax accountants? Tax calculator based off incomplete info/data?
Hi, I first got in to crypto in July 2017 - back then I just assumed I'd be paying capital gains tax if I ever got in to profit and cashed out. I neglected to keep accurate records and unfortunately 2 of the exchanges I've used in the past don't exist anymore (liqui and lbx) so I don't have a full history of every trade and transaction for a number of months spanning 2017 in to early 2018. I've used a number of exchanges and most I can get history out of, used a number of wallets and reckon I can do the same for that. Have never cashed out back to fiat but have traded coins on and off over the years maybe 300 times. No participation in any ICOs, mining, airdrops or margin trading. Recently the coins I hold have been doing well and im finally back in to some profit. I want to do the right thing and pay my due taxes. Contacted some uk crypto tax accountants but have been quoted £1k+, up to £7k so far for their services - is that about right? Appreciate crypto tax is likely to be more complicated for an accountant - it just seems so much, especially if you haven't put that much in. If you have a similar situation to mine and have used an accountant could you state here (or in DM) as to who they are and how much they charged roughly? I presume with my situation and lacking some info/data I wont be able to use any crypto tax calculator sites as the output wont be complete without a full list of all trades and transactions? Thanks!
I have been making money online since 2015. There are so many ways that I can't remember them all, but here is a list of most of them - including the most significant ones. Hope this helps you somehow. As I'm from Canada, many of these (but not all) are for Canadians. From highest-earning to lowest, for your convenience:
Instead of telling the whole story of each method, and since you care most about the highest-earning opportunities, let's discuss those and if anyone has questions about something not mentioned in this post - don't hesitate to ask, I'm happy to explain.
This is by far my biggest earner. Basically, back in mid 2017, I realized that the crypto market was starting another bull run. I had previously learned that it was possible to make money advertising for companies by adding their custom signature to my account profile so that each post contains links to their website/products underneath it. They paid a lot more back then, because Bitcoin was only valued at around $700-1,000 when I started. This forum also doesn't care about having multiple accounts - in fact, it's fully allowed. Some people have hundreds of accounts. Therefore, I quickly searched the web for people selling their accounts... and bought a bunch of decently-ranked ones such that I was able to post full-time essentially, making up to $5/post which only takes a minute or two. The best campaign I joined is one called DeepOnion, which paid almost $30,000 in about 1 month!!! All I had to do is make 10 posts a week per account, and they deposited their coin to my wallet. After it was added to an exchange, the price quickly rose and one night my portfolio value went from $3,000 to over $20,000. I sold literally at the peak! I also made money from Bitcoin paying campaigns (they pay in BTC as opposed to their token/coin). Another big score was a campaign called ATLANT, where I made well over $20,000 ...however, didn't sell my tokens and now they are worth a fraction of that. Oh well. With the above said, I don't recommend doing this anymore, as the forum is filled with 3rd world spammers who realized that it was possible to make big money a couple of years ago, and now they have bots spamming constantly and applying to campaigns and such. I haven't posted there in a long time, probably over 6 months, because it wasn't worth it anymore. It was great while it lasted.
Notice how most of my earning comes from crypto? :p Well, I found a high-ranking Reddit post about Bitcoin that was ranked in the top 3 on Google for multiple good long-string keywords. In other words, many people (I'm talking hundreds) were finding it on a daily basis. I got my comment to the top spot, which includes an affiliate link and so over 5,000 people ended up signing up and I made a lot from it. My estimate is about $10,000 USD equivalent (pays in BTC daily), although could be more.
This is the same deal as Slickdeals, as explained below. However, after SD banned my accounts, since I had a high-karma Reddit account, I realized that my clients might be interested in advertising in "deals" subreddits (mostly Amazon, although it varied). Sure enough, they were and I got paid up to $300 for a single post in popular subreddits.
This is an app that pays you to lose weight. There are a few different types of challenges, including personal, individual and team challenges. The personal challenge is the one I am currently focusing on, as I bet $125/mo over 12 months ($1500), and if successful, stand to win $4,900 or $3,400 profit. I started at 360 pounds, and must weigh out at 180 pounds or less after 1 year to win. (I know, it's lots of weight to lose, but there is tons of money at stake.) If you join using my referral link, you get $40 added to your prize and I also get $40. By the way, most people who join make a mistake of betting too much or too little. For example, you might get the same winnings by betting $100/month or $500/month, because the algorithm caps out at a certain amount. With that said, use this calculator to get the exact amount that you should bet to maximize your ROI (click on "Calculate a Healthy Wager"). I didn't know about this before signing up, and ended up betting more than I had to make the same amount (although only $12).
I had a startup similar to Groupon, and had made a few Slickdeals accounts because of that. One day while driving, it occurs to me that people might be willing to have me post on SD using my account since the traffic is so high. Well, I drove straight to the library and posted my Skype contact on about 30 threads on Warrior forum, and that same night I was getting contacts from China and it never stopped. This was way back in 2015, and I had 3 accounts and made $20 per post. I was doing about 1 post/day and sometimes getting $5 to do upvotes as well. All-in-all, after contracting out someone on Fiverr to automate the whole thing, my accounts ended up getting banned and that was that.
During the hoverboard craze of 2015, I made a couple of rudimentary sites and managed to sell about 12 in total, making about ~$100 profit per sale, and selling the sites for $750 and $250 respectively for about $2,000 in total profit. This is the first time I used YouTube as a marketing medium, specifically paid product placement, which you can see here. This video sold 4 boards & I sold the site for $250, and the board cost about $350, so it was a good deal in the end. Well, that about sums up my online earning history. I'm sure there are (many) other ways I've earned a buck, but simply don't remember them all. Again, don't hesitate to ask any questions you may have and I am more than happy to answer. Thanks for reading. Edit: it's great to see that this post is interesting to many people My best suggestions to make fast, easy money are the following:
Growing Hydroponic Lettuce this is a new one to me, but I recently started growing lettuce and not only is it super enjoyable, but it's much more cost-effective than buying it from the store. Checkout this video which shows how. All that is needed is a container with some 2 or 3 inch holes, some "net cups" to hold the lettuce in, and some liquid nutrients which are available on Amazon.
Coinberry (non-ref) I literally signed up, verified my account and got the bonus within an hour. There is a 3 day hold to withdraw funds, but it's an easy $20 and they also give an extra $10 "customer appreciation bonus" after your first deposit, so you get $30 total.
HealthyWage (non-ref) If you need to lose weight anyway, then you might as well get paid while doing so. I recommend doing a minimum amount of weight-loss over 6 months, to make it easier on yourself. When you signup with my link, we both get $40.
Dietbet no ref link, but this is a really good earner. I make about $200/month with it by playing in 9 games simultaneously.
Honeygain (non-ref) this one is entirely passive, and I highly recommend it. Simply download the app and you make money for browsing online, without doing anything else. I make about $50/year with just my phone. When you signup with my link, we both get $5.
Crypto.com (non-ref) this is a legit cryptourrency site that gives you $50 when you sign up & deposit $250. I know it's legit, because I just signed up a few days ago and already got my bonus. Simply buy their crypto in the app with your credit card & stake it for 6 months, and they give you $50.
The fee schedule below provides the applicable rate based on the account's 30-Day Volume and if the order is a maker or taker. Bittrex Global Fee30 Day Volume (USD)MakerTaker$0k - $50k0.2%0.2%$50k - $1M0.12%0.18%$1M - $10M0.05%0.15%$10M - $60M0.02%0.1%$60M+0%0.08%>$100MContact TAM representative Trading expenses are incurred when an order is prepared by means of the Bittrex worldwide matching engine. While an order is being executed, the purchaser and the vendor are charged a rate primarily based on the order’s amount. The fee charged by Bittrex exchange is calculated by the formula amount * buy rate * fee. There aren't any charges for placing an order which is not being executed so far. Any portion of an unfinished order will be refunded completely upon order cancelation. Prices vary depending on the currency pair, monthly trade volume, and whether the order is a maker or taker. Bittrex reserves the right to alternate fee quotes at any time, including offering various discounts and incentive packages.
Your buying and selling volume affects the fee you pay for every order. Our expenses are built to encourage customers who ensure liquidity in the Bittrex crypto exchange markets. Your buying and selling charges are reduced according to your trade volume for the last 30 years in dollars. Bittrex calculates the 30-day value every day, updating every account's volume calculation and buying and selling charge between of 12:30 AM UTC and 01:30 AM UTC every day. You can check your monthly trade volume by logging in and opening Account > My Activity. https://preview.redd.it/n1djh2ob4zh51.jpg?width=974&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2eebb9c9ac63de207c4dd2e49bc45aeb53a8dec8
6. Withdrawing Funds
Withdrawing any type of funds is likewise simple. You can profit by buying and selling Bitcoin, Ether, or any other cryptocurrency. You determine the crypto address—to which the amount will be credited—and the transaction amount. The withdrawal fee will be automatically calculated and shown right away. After confirming the transaction, the finances will be sent to the specified addresses and all that you need to do is to wait for the community to confirm the transaction. If the 2FA is enabled, then the user receives a special code (via SMS or application) to confirm the withdrawal.
7. How to Trade on Bittrex Global
Currency selling and buying transactions are performed using the Sell and Buy buttons, accordingly. To begin with, the dealer selects a currency pair and sees a graph of the rate dynamics and different values for the pair. Below the chart, there is a section with orders where the user can buy or sell a virtual asset. To create an order, you just need to specify the order type, price, and quantity. And do not forget about the 0.25% trade fee whatever the quantity. For optimum profit, stay with liquid assets as they can be quickly sold at a near-market rate effective at the time of the transaction. Bittrex offers no referral program; so buying and selling crypto is the easiest way to earn. https://preview.redd.it/hopm6fih4zh51.jpg?width=1302&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=68c0aaae86f64c3e6b9d351c3df2a9c331f94038
Bittrex helps you alternate Limit and Stop-Limit orders. A limit order or a simple limit order is performed when the asset fee reaches—or even exceeds—the price the trader seeks. To execute such an order, it is required that there's a counter market order on the platform that has the identical fee as the limit order.
Differences between Limit Order and Stop Limit Order
A stop limit order is a mixture of a stop limit order and a limit order. In such an application, charges are indicated—a stop charge and the limit.
Let’s discuss how you could trade conveniently with our service. The key features include a user-friendly interface and precise currency pair statistics (timeframe graphs, network data, trade volumes, and so forth). The platform’s top-notch advantage is handy, easy-to-analyze, customizable charts. There is also a column for quick switching between currency pairs and an order panel beneath the fee chart. Such an all-encompassing visual solution helps compare orders efficiently and in one place. You can use the terminal in a day or night mode; when in the night mode, the icon in the upper-right corner changes and notice the Bittrex trading terminal in night mode is displayed. The main menu consists of 4 sections: Markets, Orders, Wallets, Settings. Markets are the trade section. Bittrex allows handling over 270 currency pairs. Orders. To see all open orders, go to Orders → Open. To see completed orders, go to Orders → Completed. Wallets. The Wallets tab displays many wallets for all cryptocurrencies supported by the exchange and the current balance of each of them. After refilling the balance or creating a buy or sale order, you will see all actions in the section. Bittrex allows creating a separate wallet for every coin. Additionally, you can see how the coin price has changed, in terms of percentage, throughout the day. Here’s what you can also do with your wallets:
Hide zero balances: hide currencies with zero balance
Green and red arrows: replenish balance/withdraw funds
Find: search for a cryptocurrency
The Settings section helps manage your account, verification, 2FA, password modification, API connection, and many more.
How to Sell
The process of selling crypto assets follows the same algorithm. The only difference is that after choosing the exchange direction, you need to initiate a Sell order. All the rest is similar: you select the order type, specify the quantity and price, and click Sell *Currency Name* (Sell Bitcoin in our case). If you scroll the screen, the entire history of trades and orders will be displayed below.
LONG and SHORT
You can make a long deal or a short deal. Your choice depends on whether you expect an asset to fall or rise in price. Long positions are a classic trading method. It concerns purchasing an asset to profit when its value increases. Long positions are carried out through any brokers and do not require a margin account. In this case, the trader’s account must have enough funds to cover the transaction. Losses in a long position are considered to be limited; no matter when the trade starts, the price will not fall below zero with all possible errors. Short positions, in contrast, are used to profit from a falling market. A trader buys a financial instrument from a broker and sells it. After the price reaches the target level, the trader buys back the assets or buys them to pay off the initial debt to the broker. A short position yields profit if the price falls, and it is considered unprofitable the price matches the asset value. Performing a short order requires a margin account as a trader borrows valuable assets from a broker to complete a transaction. Long transactions help gain from market growth; short from a market decline.
Trade via API
Bittrex also supports algorithmic trading through extensive APIs (application programming interface), which allows you to automate the trading process using third-party services. To create an API key, the user must enable the two-factor authentication 2FA, verify their account, and log in to the site within 3 minutes. If all the requirements of the system are fulfilled, you can proceed to generate the API key. Log in to your Bittrex account, click Settings. Find API Keys. Click Add new key (Create a new key). Toggle on / off settings for READ INFO, TRADE, or WITHDRAW, depending on what functionality you want to use for our API key. Click Save and enter the 2FA code from the authenticator → Confirm. The secret key will be displayed only once and will disappear after the page is refreshed. Make sure you saved it! To delete an API key, click X in the right corner for the key that you want to delete, then click Save, enter the 2FA code from the authenticator and click Confirm.
Bittrex Bot, a Trader’s Assistant
Robotized programs that appeared sometimes after the appearance of cryptocurrency exchanges save users from monotonous work and allow automating the trading process. Bots for trading digital money work like all the other bots: they perform mechanical trading according to the preset parameters. Currently, one of Bittrex’s most popular trading bots is Bittrex Flash Crash Buyer Bot that helps traders profit from altcoin volatility without missing the right moment. The program monitors all the market changes in the market every second; also, it even can place an order in advance. The Bittrex bot can handle a stop loss—to sell a certain amount of currency when the rate changes in a favorable direction and reaches a certain level.
8. Secure Platform
Bittrex Global employs the most reliable and effective security technologies available. There are many cases of theft, fraud. It is no coincidence that the currency is compared to the Wild West, especially if we compare the 1800s when cowboys rushed to the West Coast of America to earn and start something new in a place that had no rules. Cryptocurrency is still wild. One can earn and lose money fast. But Bittrex has a substantial security policy thanks to the team’s huge experience in security and development for companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, Qualys, and Blackberry. The system employs an elastic, multi-stage holding strategy to ensure that the majority of funds are kept in cold storage for extra safety. Bittrex Global also enables the two-factor authentication for all users and provides a host of additional security features to provide multiple layers of protection. Bittrex cold wallet: https://bitinfocharts.com/en/bitcoin/address/385cR5DM96n1HvBDMzLHPYcw89fZAXULJP
Bittrex Global is a reliable and advanced platform for trading digital assets with a respected reputation, long history, and active market presence and development nowadays. The exchange is eligible to be used globally, including the US and its territories. The legal component of Bittrex Global is one of the most legitimate among numerous crypto-asset exchanges. The Bittrex team has had great ambitions and managed to deliver promises and more. The exchange staff comprises forward-thinking and exceptional individuals whose success is recognized in the traditional business and blockchain sector. Bittrex's purpose is to be the driving force in the blockchain revolution, expanding the application, importance, and accessibility of this game-changing technology worldwide. The exchange fosters new and innovative blockchain and related projects that could potentially change the way money and assets are managed globally. Alongside innovation, safety will always be the main priority of the company. The platform utilizes the most reliable and effective practices and available technologies to protect user accounts. Bittrex customers have always primarily been those who appreciate the highest degree of security. Because of the way the Bittrex trading platform is designed, it can easily scale to always provide instant order execution for any number of new customers. Bittrex supports algorithmic trading and empowers its customers with extensive APIs for more automated and profitable trading. One of the common features which is not available on the exchange is margin trading. No leverage used however adds up to the exchange's stability and prevents fast money seekers and risky traders from entering the exchange. Bittrex is a force of the blockchain revolution and an important entity of the emerging sector. The full version First part Second part
I keep seeing people making wrong assumptions about the value of COIN, and XYO in general. Hopefully more read this and take note going forward
-“The amount of XYO you receive for 10K coin flucuates based on the price of XYO in USD”. FALSE! Bitcoin and ETH are traded on exchanges directly for $ and these trades dictate their posted “value”. XYO cannot be traded currently for $, and has to be converted into $ through some other crypto. Likely the posted $USD “values” of XYO are calculated from the exchanges for Bitcoin and ETH and their current respective values. Further, the parent company of the app dictates the exchange rate of COIN to XYO
“The vale of 10K Coin is always $5” FALSE! The parent company of the coin app determines the amount of XYO 10k Coin translates to. In the past it has fluctuated quickly keeping up with posted XYO values, but lately (last 2 weeks) the ratio has remained relatively static. The $5 value recently has been actually around $4.50 and lately it has been trending downwards closer to $4.
-“The value of XYO went up! Look at my wallet and how much money I’ve made!” NOPE...just no...Yes it’s exciting that the perceived value of XYO has gone up - it’s something we all look forward too. However, you actually haven’t made ANYTHING until you cash it out. The value of XYO could plummet tomorrow - despite all the graphs posted showing “now is a good time to buy because I drew lines on a chart” you truly can’t predict the whims/confidence of the masses when trading crypto. Last, and most importantly, you currently can’t exchange XYO for $ directly - you have to convert it to another crypto and then sell that crypto. Both steps require a HUGE percentage to be taken off the top, which will reduce your profits further. Factor those losses in, and show what your net gain in profit would be (accounting for how much you bought the XYO for in the first place) and that’s more relevant. Or just don’t brag - I and others don’t care that you think you are a millionaire.
“I’m gonna wait until the ratio of COIN to XYO is back to 1:1” Likely not gonna happen. But that’s ok - we want XYO to gain in popularity and to succeed. Even though it’s not directly determined by the “value” of XYO, for the ratio to go up you need to have the value of XYO to go down. Hodl too long on your COIN and you could miss out on long term gains if the ratio keeps going down. If it was $5 for 10K coin (but it isn’t as explained above), and if XYO’s value hit 1 cent, that would translate to only 100XYO for 10k coin - think about that...
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Currently the 500 MCO tier is sort of the sweet spot for most users where a lot of valuable perks kick in. When I first purchased MCO it was under $3 USD, so going straight to the 500 tier was an obvious choice. I was planning to put some Stablecoins and Bitcoin into earn, so the added 2% bonus in-kind in earn, plus the 3% card cashbacks and Netflix reimbursement made the choice economically beneficial quite quickly. Less than a year later the benefits have provided me a larger return on investment than if I had done otherwise. I have been eyeing the upgrade to the 5000 tier, but I wanted to do an analysis of what sort of upgrade strategy makes sense to optimize ROI weighted against risks and if I'm even the right candidate for such an investment. With the price of MCO being higher, it's not such a clear decision. I will outline my thought process below. Assumptions - These are the assumptions that I am working with for my analysis. Working with a different set of assumptions will affect the decision making process differently for different people.
Decision making process involves only MCO, Stablecoins (Fiat), and Bitcoin
Bitcoin being held was bought at a low price and converting to MCO will cause a taxable event
There is no monetary benefit to Prime because I've been grandfathered into prime from an old family members account
There is no monetary benefit to Expedia because I do all my travel spending on my Chase Sapphire Reserve that offers robust travel benefits and protections.
The monetary benefit to CDC Private is not clear at the time
Time frame of one year
Interest rates on the platform do not drastically change over the next year
MCO and BTC change fluctuate roughly in lockstep
Dollar figures below are arbitrary for example purposes only
Based on the above assumptions we can now look at different upgrade pathways and see which options make the most sense. This thought process is a place to start and can be adjusted to each person's individual case.
Stablecoin (Fiat) to MCO pathway
At today's price of ~$4.85 USD at time of writing, it would cost $21,825 USD to upgrade directly into the 5000 tier by buying 4500 additional MCO. This gives additional benefits of 2% in earn, 1% on card, and 8% vs 6% on staked MCO. The variables we need to look at to find out if this makes sense over the next year are: assets in Earn and annual card spend. The opportunity cost of putting the money into MCO is a 4% yield on $21,825 (12% in Earn minus 8% staked in MCO) minus a 2% yield on 500 MCO, or roughly $824.50. We also open ourselves up to exchange rate volatility, there is a very real, non-0% chance that the crypto market collapses, or that MCO itself collapses in value. There is also a chance it will go way up. If you are looking to hold the MCO, or crypto in general, for longer periods of time, we need to sort of normalize the projected trend to figure out ROI. That means ignoring big jumps and drops, or retroactively thinking you could have made or lost money by trading in and out… that falls under trading and speculation. In general, most of us think the crypto market is going up, but by how much and how fast are variables that need to be considered in how exposed to crypto you want to be In order to make this pathway a positive ROI, we need to make an additional $824.50 through the added benefits in Earn and card spending over the course of one year. What does that look like?
Assets in Earn*0.02 + Card spend*0.01>824.50
Card spend: $1,000; Earn: $40,725
Card spend: $5,000; Earn: $38,725
Card spend: $10,000; Earn: $36,225
If you don't have roughly $35-40k in Earn, upgrading to 5000 Tier makes very little sense IMO. Full Account Examples (Assuming today's crypto prices):
Case 1 - 500 MCO staked; $100,000 Stablecoins in Earn; $100,000 Bitcoin in earn; $3000 card spend
500 * $4.85 * 0.06 = $145.50
$100,000 * 0.12 = $12,000
$100,000 * 0.055 = $5,500
$3,000 * 0.03 = $90
Total annual rewards: $17,735.50
Case 2 - 5000 MCO staked; $80,000 Stablecoins; $100,000 Bitcoin in Earn; $3000 card spend
5000 * $4.85 *0.08 = $1,940
$80,000 * 0.14 = $11,200
$100,000 * 0.075 = $7,500
$3,000 * 0.04 = $120
Total annual rewards: $20,760
Case 1 and 2 are very similar in total assets, but case 2 provides the better return after one year ($20,760 - $17,735.50 = $3,024.50) at the cost of being more exposed to crypto.
Bitcoin to MCO pathway via Drip
Another option to consider is upgrading to the 5000 tier via Bitcoin. I mention "Drip" in the header because I imagine most people able to do a lump sum conversion would encounter a taxable event and would be less inclined to go that route. Utilizing a drip format will upgrade on a longer time scale, but result in negligible taxable gain. It also keeps crypto exposure at roughly the same level throughout the process. The benefits from going to MCO from BTC is a higher interest rate for MCO being staked at 6% vs BTC in Earn at 5.5%; I also assume CDC will be able to keep the 6% on MCO longer than they can keep the rate high on BTC. The drawbacks are less liquidity on MCO, potentially more volatility, and potential loss of value relative to BTC in Satoshis (we'll ignore the last point since we are assuming a similar sat ratio over time). Another thing to mention, if we want to upgrade over the course of one year, BTC holdings need to be pretty sizable at $400,000 That's a little unreasonable for most people, so let's assume a smaller holding of $100,000 btc like the two cases above. This will take three years to accomplish and the equation gets a bit more complicated in this situation.
500 MCO staked at 6%
$100,000 BTC in Earn at 5.5%
Proceeds from both go immediately into MCO 3 Month Earn at 8%
Basically if you take the above situation and plug it into a compound interest calculator, compounding quarterly, it takes almost 3 years exactly to drip your way into the 5000 tier. We can mostly ignore any change in crypto USD value as long as the MCO/BTC ratio stays similar. If you definitely want to go to the 5000 tier, the question becomes purchase lump sum via Fiat or drip via crypto. The opportunity cost of dripping is the lost 2% gain in earn over the course of 3 years (which as you'll see below, could be significant if the market jumps quickly at which point purchasing via Fiat becomes prohibitively expensive). But the benefit is that you maintain your current crypto exposure in the case of a major bear market where you could potentially purchase via Fiat at a much lower price.
I think it's important to think about an exit strategy. In my opinion, upgrading to the 5000 tier only really makes sense if you are having a lot of assets in Earn. The added 1% on card spend and other perks pales in comparison to the added 2% on Earn with a large amount of assets. It's also my opinion that MCO should only be a small portion of a crypto portfolio. Regardless, if MCO is your main holding you are betting on the crypto market going up, because the added 5000 tier benefits won't comparatively amount to much over a year anyway. If crypto prices stay the same the benefits to holding MCO stay flat, but as crypto prices rise, the incentives change. Imagine we go on a huge bull run and the market goes up 20x. I bet a lot of people will want to rebalance and cash in some of that profit. It's quite possible holding 5000 MCO becomes too big of a risk for the benefits received. What's nice is that CDC seems to have thought about the optimal profile for people to get to the 5000 tier level...like I stated above, people with significant assets in Earn. Imagine the person in Case 2 above in an environment where the crypto market shoots up 20x.
5000 MCO = $500,000
$80,000 Stablecoins = $80,000
$100,000 BTC = $2,000,000
In this situation, it makes sense to rebalance your portfolio and take some earnings off the table. However, it actually makes a lot of sense to keep the 5000 MCO staked and rebalance away from BTC into Stablecoins. Look at the yearly earnings of different options below:
Leave as is: $191,200
Rebalance $450,000 from BTC to Stablecoins maintaining 5000 MCO tier: $220,450
Rebalance $450,000 away from MCO to Stablecoins dropping to the 500 MCO tier: $176,600
As you can see, losing the bonus 2% in earn cuts your profit over the course of a year. CDC was quite thoughtful in changing the award structure for the added 2% in Earn. It should keep early adopters from leaving if the market goes up, and should actually attract newly minted crypto whales as they rebalance out of other cryptos. This should keep the MCO price strong for a long time and give confidence to people investing in MCO.
I think upgrading to the 5000 tier can make a lot of sense for certain people. But after reaching the 5000 tier I would probably immediately cash out all rewarded MCO to Stablecoins to compound at a higher interest rate and just maintain the 5000 level. Unless there are some dramatic new rewards for the 50,000 level I don't see the value proposition to go for Black. Perhaps an additional 2% in Earn, but that is probably not sustainable to the company. Let me know what you think, or if I made any mistakes. Edit: Changed numbers to reflect 8% earned on staked MCO at the 5000 Tier level. This makes the upgrade more compelling.
Weekly Update: ParJar Swap private beta, Fantom Opera Network Special-fee Contract, SelfKey + ThreeFold, Open Staking live on Harmony…– 15 May - 21 May'20
Hey Parachuters! Seems like ages since I last posted a weekly update, right? Unfortunately, got super busy with IRL work and couldn’t keep up. But fret not! I finally scraped some time out today to get upto speed with all the news from the Parachute universe in May and June and organised them into a series of weekly updates like the ones I used to write earlier. But instead of posting them one by one everyday, thought it might be best to release them all at one go. So here's Part I of VI - All that happened at Parachute + partners from 15 May - 21 May'20: The ParJar swap feature beta testing started this week with a call to testers far and wide. Click here for the latest update and stats on ParJar straight from Cap's mouth - "...it took almost two years of betas and growth to reach 1 million tips (March 7th) nd it’s taken 2 months to to add another 400k..". Amazing! The #par4par raffle continues with a 500k $PAR pool. Peace Love hosted a general knowledge trivia in TTR this week for 10k $PAR in prizes. Gamerboy’s random trivia and Victor’s “Big Trivia” in Tiproom were quite fun as well. Naj (who’s also this week’s Parena winner) hosted a six set quiz in TTR. Charlotte’s been hosting quizzes in a new format for quite some time now. This week too she held one in Tiproom. Jason started a #culturalweekend prompt with an invitation to Parachuters to share "about a cultural dance or ceremony" from their area. "Explain in detail about the dance and why it is important" for some cool $PAR. Among many of the cool stories shared by Parachuters included Nico’s Occitan music from Italy and Soleira’s Dancing Devils of Tinaquillo. Congratulations to Clinton’s FLI charity for partnering with Lumenthropy which is Stellar's philanthropic arm. Remember, all profits from the Parachute Shop go to FLI. Another crypto league with a 150k $PAR prize pot started this week. Gian’s Two-For-Tuesday was a free for all. To revisit all the awesome music posted for 2FT, check out the playlist made by Sebastian. Naj came back from near certain defeat in the finale to win this week’s Parena aXpire CEO Matthew Markham penned an article on remote work and billing software for legal firms. An updated e-flyer for Bilr was released as well. To track the latest $AXPR burn, click here. 2gether added customer support capabilities to their Twitter, Facebook and Discord. Plus, an incident tracker status page was added this week. The XIO dApp which is still in private beta has already seen 500k+ $XIO tokens locked into it. Awesome! To get a feel of how the dApp works, check out Dash’s latest video demo where he also shared some updates on tokenomics. Uptrennd founder Jeff Kirdeikis interviewed Dash over an hour long session to talk all things XIO. $XIO got listed on Idex. Click here to watch an update video on the latest developments. For XIO discussions this week, Citizens brainstormed over the base liquidity pair on Uniswap V2. DeFi Nation’s Clayton Roche wrote a detailed commentary on what XIO is doing right. Birdchain’s mid-May update came out this week. Voyager hosted a business update conference call this week. CEO Steve Ehrlich talked about the platform and crypto in general with Charlie Shrem on the Untold Stories podcast this week. Voyager’s Q3 2020 results were released. Still figuring out how to fund your Voyager wallet? Watch this video to find out. An upgrade to Fantom’s Opera Network was pushed which allows staking different amounts over time. For the latest project update, click here. A community AMA also happened this week where the team talked about a new staking proposal called Fluid Staking. Jeff from Uptrennd sat down to interview IOST co-founder Terry Wang this week. Uptrennd broke into the top 20k Alexa global rankings. Woohoo! GET Protocol’s GUTS Tickets app is now available in Italian as well. DoYourTip’s $DYT is now available on Uniswap V2. What a welcome sight for support engineers. Source: https://2gether.statuspage.io/history Switch’s $ESH token was listed on Stex, ProBit, Crex 24, Hotbit, Bilaxy and Bitcoin.com this week. Bitcoin.com also announced support for the $GHOST airdrop along with a deposit and trade competition. Continuing on its acquisition spree from last week, Switch acquired gaming platform Wavesbet and voting dApp ClearPoll. Whitepaper for the GHOST project by John McAfee was released. They will be airdropping their tokens 1:1 to $ESH HODLers on the 25th. The release of $GHOST has been contentious to say the least. Reflecting on some of the plagiarism allegations levelled against the project, the crew shared their side of the story. The team also sat down for an AMA with Coiner Vietnam. District0x’s latest weekly update talked about the upcoming DappDigest and new developments in Meme Factory among other news. The Q4 2019 quarterly report was released as well. Read all about Hydro’s Financial Offers framework here. If you are a graphic designer, don’t forget to check out this gig at Sentivate. US-residents only. OST’s Simona Pop will be attending a panel discussion by Outlier Ventures next week to talk about dev onboarding. P2P internet ecosystem ThreeFold announced a multi-faceted partnership with SelfKey for KYC and new user onboarding services. Following last week's community vote on the most attractive marketplaces, Passports Marketplace was found to be the most popular. This week, the community voted on their most preferred blockchain to be added to the app. Bank of Hodlers joined SelfKey's Loans Marketplace while Tokens.net joined the Exchanges Marketplace. COTI did a study on IoT payments and how it could offer a solution. The project was selected for the next listing vote on Gate.io. COTI community also got an opportunity to interact with the AtomicWallet team through an AMA this week. Hydro has been constantly updating its dev tools to offer a seamless developer experience Click here to read the latest Constellation Hypergraph mainnet stats. New features were added to the Molly wallet. Click here for steps to install the wallet. TheDailyChain expanded on how the $DAG ecosystem was growing. Pynk CEO Seth Ward wrote about the future of fintech in his EM360 article. Congratulations on crossing the 1k follower mark on Medium. In Shuffle Monster news, most of the $SHUF liquidity on Uniswap was moved to the V2 pool this week. New features were added to the Wibson app with the latest release giving more data control powers to the end user. Pre-staking started on the Harmony mainnet with the opening up of bids by validators followed by the election of the first batch of validators thereby marking the start of Open Staking. And just after, Harmony became the first ever blockchain to support sharded PoS. The news of Open Staking going live was covered by Coindesk and Cointelegraph. More details on what next was shared in a Coinspeaker article. How does a delegator fit into the overall scheme of things? Check out this video. Open staking noobs will find these 101 tutorials helpful. CTO Rongjian Lan also did a community call to explain about it. For the latest development updates otherwise known as #pow thread, click here. Harmony’s EPoS is designed to be fair to all stakers. So make sure to optimise your staking rewards. $ONE Binance wallets were taken down briefly for a temporary maintenance activity. They now support the mainnet coin. Hope you had a chance to participate in the guess-effective-median-stake contest to win some cool $ONE prizes. Click here for the latest staking stats. $ONE was added to Binance Savings which offers a fixed rate of return on locked savings. A minor bug in the staking bug was removed. The APR numbers should get calculated more accurately now. The crew appeared for an AMA with StakingHub. Congratulations to the winners of Stake Heist! Binance and BitMax announced support for staking with BItMax crew also appearing for an AMA. IntelliShare crew sat down for an AMA with CoinNess this week. And with that, we have to close for this week in the Parachuteverse! See you again with another update. Ciao!
YFI Among The Cheapest DeFi Tokens, Despite Its Higher Than Bitcoin Price
Yearn Finance’s YFI Coin Is One Of The Cheapest DeFi Tokens In Terms Of Price-To-Sales Ratio The DeFi ecosystem bloomed rapidly over the past couple of months, with many projects recording massive gains. One of them is Yearn Finance’s DeFi platform, which recorded an upward movement of 7,500% in terms of total value locked (TVL), reaching $763 million. Also, Yearn Finance’s governing token – YFI, skyrocketed from $2,745 on July 25, to $13,548.25 as of press time, surpassing price-wise even Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency leader. The Yearn.Finance ecosystem consists of several branches. Apart from the yearn.finance profit switching lender, the company also deployed a single-sided automated market maker, dubbed yswap.exchange. Still in a testnet environment are ytrade.finance, which is a leveraged stablecoin trading platform, as well as the zero-capital automated liquidations for Aave, and credit delegation vaults for smart contract to smart contract lending. Meanwhile, crypto researchers from Messari showcased that YFI, despite its high price and limited circulation supply, is still among the cheapest DeFi projects. The researching company compared the prices of the leading DeFi project with their market capitalization. It turns out the price-to-sales ratio of YFI is 20x, which is among the lowest in DeFi, whilst projects like Compound (COMP), Maker (MKR), and 0x (ZRX) made 32x, 740x, and 1,775x, respectively. Source: Messari Messari made the calculations based on a $390 million market capitalization and annualized sales of $21 million. Furthermore, researcher Ryan Watkins noted that the massive surge in popularity for Yearn’s protocol is the yield farming automation, introduced in Yearn Finance V2. The update allowes yield farmers to deposit their funds in a so-called “yVault”, which controls the crypto collateral automatically. YFI’s mechanism is two-fold with the so called “Earn” and “Vault”. Earn, or lending optimization represents the first aspect, whereas the second is made of Vaults, or farming optimization. According to Messari Yield.Finance does not have any significant expenses, and its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio can be essentially turned into а price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio.
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Date of the event
The total supply of coins in U$D for this event
The coin promoted in the event
Profit to be made on invested money. $ amount for 10,000 CRO staked.
Excluding $6 wash trading fees to achieve $5,000 trading volume on the exchange.
Number of times the event got oversubscribed
How many coins CDC offered
How many CRO were locked by the users
Total amount of users participating
How many CRO could you subscribe with for 10,000 CRO staked
Price of 1 CRO in US-$ at the time of the syndicate event.
How do I calculate the profit? I use the PAXG event from the 13th of august 2020 as an example: Besides the staking of 5,000 CRO on the exchange you now need to have made $5,000 trading volume on the exchange in the last 30 days. I paid 39 CRO to achieve this volume. I subscribed to the event with 6,000 CRO. This syndicate was 43.6x oversubscribed, leaving me with 138 CRO (6,000CRO/43.6) allocated, which were exchanged for 0.02266526 PAXG by Crypto.com (CDC). Trading these PAXG for CRO on the exchange I got 273 CRO in return. So in the end I invested 6,000 CRO, paid 39 CRO for wash trading, paid 138 CRO to receive my PAXG and earned 273 CRO for selling it, leaving me with 6,096 CRO or 96 CRO profit. This equals 1.60% profit (6,096CRO/6,000CRO).
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