Liquidation Margin Defined - Investopedia

How should I portion my trades?

I have $135k in net liquidation value with $90k invested in long term stocks and $45k in cash.
I have a margin account and have sold cash secured puts on things I want to own but am pretty much new to assessing the risk of trading options. If I was to open a delta neutral strategy (straddle/strangle/iron condor etc) how much should I allocate as a % of my account? And how should I assess risk? Should I always be cash secured or trade $100k positions with only $45k cash on hand? Basically, I’m a noob and just don’t know how to assess risk. Appreciate if there are any reading recommendations on this that don’t require some advanced math like in risk management.
As an example, if I sold 1 weekly put on TSLA for 1300 for around $500 premium, is that too risky?
Thanks for the help!
submitted by Wu-Han to thetagang [link] [comments]

Top options trading mistakes that you should not make

This is my post on wsbelite. Repost here for all.
IMO, trading options have similarities to playing poker and in order to be successful in the long run you need to be disciplined and refrain from making common mistakes. I’m going to list common mistakes and some tips here. Please suggest more. Hope we all lose less tendies!
  1. Refrain to trade low volume options . These contracts will have really wild bid/ask spread, or really low volume, which reduces your chance to make profit significantly. For example how can you win if you trade $ROPE 100c when the bid ask spread is $69/$96 per contract?
  2. Refrain to trade very low price options (e.g 1-10 cents) because your broker commissions will eat up a significant amount of the transactions. Think how much commissions you have to pay to buy 10000 contracts of 0.01 $ROPE 1000c which costs $10000 of premium.
  3. Refrain to buy near-dated far OTM options, because this is almost a sure way to burn your money. Even worse, even if you guess the direction right, you may still have a substantial loss. Think $PEI 500% OTM 2DTE. Btw $PEI is a great stock to own. Example: on 04/13 you bought SPY 496c 04/17 when SPY=280. On 04/14 SPY rises to 285. Guess how much you made on your call options?
  4. Know when to select OTM vs ITM options: in general: OTM is higher risk/higher return. Have some sense of OTM price movement - even when you guess the direction right, far OTM options won’t make you money because of low delta. ITM is more expensive. ATM is typically a safe choice if you just want to make a directional bet.
  5. Know theta-crush. Your options will lose time-value every day, so refrain from buying short-dated options unless you know what you're doing.
  6. Know the effects of IV (VIX for SPY) on options price. Sometimes even when you guess the direction rights, you may lose money because of VIX movements. Know how to hedge for VIX movement.
  7. Refrain from using market orders when possible: limit orders will give you the price you want.
  8. Understand the margin impact of different options strategies.
  9. Understand the impact of your broker commissions.
  10. Bank management: never YOLO your entire portfolio into one position, because if you lose, there’s 0% chance to make it back. Learn http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/basic/bankroll-management/. If you want to get in a large (50K+) position, average in/out may be a good idea.
  11. Don't open too many positions unless you're a bot. It's hard to manage manually and easy to make mistakes.
  12. (Mostly) don't follow autist DDs that you can't explain.
  13. Learn the market hours!
  14. Options strategies can be complex to visualized. Use your broker's performance profile tool to understand the performance implications before making a trade.
Some risky options strategies that you should only do when you know what you’re doing
Less risky options strategies:
  1. Covered calls: very low risk. You hold shares, and sell OTM calls to cover them and collect the premium.
  2. Cash secured puts: sell puts but you have cash to cover it. This is good when you’re willing to buy the shares if it drops, otherwise you collect the premium.
  3. Diagonal: Simultaneously entering into a long and short position in two options of the same type (two call options or two put options) but with different strike prices and different expiration dates. Typically these structures are on a 1 x 1 ratio. This is less risky and can hedge you against IV as well. For example if you bearish on USO, buy a 4p 05/15 and sell a 3.5p 04/24, that way if USO moves upward on the week ending 04/24 you’ll collect the near-dated premium.
  4. Learn how to sell options. Every mistake you made as an option buyer is probably a chance for you to profit as an option-seller.
Practical tips
  1. Use tools to scan top volume options. https://www.barchart.com/options/volume-leaders . This can give you some confirmation.
  2. Use tools to scan unusual activity options. https://www.barchart.com/options/unusual-activity Try to think why people are making that trade. Your broker also has tools to scan these.
  3. Take advantage of L2 flow data if your broker provides.
  4. Sometime when you can't make a long-term directional bet, it may be profitable to day-trade or swing-trade (hold your positions for 1-3 days).
  5. Know common ETFs:
Tips to improve
Learn more about economics and business to improve your common sense.
Advanced topics: understand how MM works, gamma hedging, dark pool indicators, probably understand some TAs such as RSI.
Day trade dynamics: power hours.
Things to debate
  1. Should you use stop-loss orders or not?
  2. When to buy FDs and how much should you spend on FDs?
  3. What is the impact of the underlying delisted on put options? As example OILU closed on 03/29 https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/MC3724/20200316/SUP_421079.PDF
submitted by tinkerprophet to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

The dollar standard and how the Fed itself created the perfect setup for a stock market crash

Disclaimer: This is neither financial nor trading advice and everyone should trade based on their own risk tolerance. Please leverage yourself accordingly. When you're done, ask yourself: "Am I jacked to the tits?". If the answer is "yes", you're good to go.
We're probably experiencing the wildest markets in our lifetime. After doing some research and listening to opinions by several people, I wanted to share my own view on what happened in the market and what could happen in the future. There's no guarantee that the future plays out as I describe it or otherwise I'd become very rich.
If you just want tickers and strikes...I don't know if this is going to help you. But anyways, scroll way down to the end. My current position is TLT 171c 8/21, opened on Friday 7/31 when TLT was at 170.50.
This is a post trying to describe what it means that we've entered the "dollar standard" decades ago after leaving the gold standard. Furthermore I'll try to explain how the "dollar standard" is the biggest reason behind the 2008 and 2020 financial crisis, stock market crashes and how the Coronavirus pandemic was probably the best catalyst for the global dollar system to blow up.

Tackling the Dollar problem

Throughout the month of July we've seen the "death of the Dollar". At least that's what WSB thinks. It's easy to think that especially since it gets reiterated in most media outlets. I will take the contrarian view. This is a short-term "downturn" in the Dollar and very soon the Dollar will rise a lot against the Euro - supported by the Federal Reserve itself.US dollar Index (DXY)If you zoom out to the 3Y chart you'll see what everyone is being hysterical about. The dollar is dying! It was that low in 2018! This is the end! The Fed has done too much money printing! Zimbabwe and Weimar are coming to the US.
There is more to it though. The DXY is dominated by two currency rates and the most important one by far is EURUSD.EURUSD makes up 57.6% of the DXY
And we've seen EURUSD rise from 1.14 to 1.18 since July 21st, 2020. Why that date? On that date the European Commission (basically the "government" of the EU) announced that there was an agreement for the historical rescue package for the EU. That showed the markets that the EU seems to be strong and resilient, it seemed to be united (we're not really united, trust me as an European) and therefore there are more chances in the EU, the Euro and more chances taking risks in the EU.Meanwhile the US continued to struggle with the Coronavirus and some states like California went back to restricting public life. The US economy looked weaker and therefore the Euro rose a lot against the USD.
From a technical point of view the DXY failed to break the 97.5 resistance in June three times - DXY bulls became exhausted and sellers gained control resulting in a pretty big selloff in the DXY.

Why the DXY is pretty useless

Considering that EURUSD is the dominant force in the DXY I have to say it's pretty useless as a measurement of the US dollar. Why? Well, the economy is a global economy. Global trade is not dominated by trade between the EU and the USA. There are a lot of big exporting nations besides Germany, many of them in Asia. We know about China, Japan, South Korea etc. Depending on the business sector there are a lot of big exporters in so-called "emerging markets". For example, Brazil and India are two of the biggest exporters of beef.
Now, what does that mean? It means that we need to look at the US dollar from a broader perspective. Thankfully, the Fed itself provides a more accurate Dollar index. It's called the "Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad, Goods and Services".
When you look at that index you will see that it didn't really collapse like the DXY. In fact, it still is as high as it was on March 10, 2020! You know, only two weeks before the stock market bottomed out. How can that be explained?

Global trade, emerging markets and global dollar shortage

Emerging markets are found in countries which have been shifting away from their traditional way of living towards being an industrial nation. Of course, Americans and most of the Europeans don't know how life was 300 years ago.China already completed that transition. Countries like Brazil and India are on its way. The MSCI Emerging Market Index lists 26 countries. Even South Korea is included.
However there is a big problem for Emerging Markets: the Coronavirus and US Imports.The good thing about import and export data is that you can't fake it. Those numbers speak the truth. You can see that imports into the US haven't recovered to pre-Corona levels yet. It will be interesting to see the July data coming out on August 5th.Also you can look at exports from Emerging Market economies. Let's take South Korean exports YoY. You can see that South Korean exports are still heavily depressed compared to a year ago. Global trade hasn't really recovered.For July the data still has to be updated that's why you see a "0.0%" change right now.Less US imports mean less US dollars going into foreign countries including Emerging Markets.Those currency pairs are pretty unimpressed by the rising Euro. Let's look at a few examples. Use the 1Y chart to see what I mean.
Indian Rupee to USDBrazilian Real to USDSouth Korean Won to USD
What do you see if you look at the 1Y chart of those currency pairs? There's no recovery to pre-COVID levels. And this is pretty bad for the global financial system. Why? According to the Bank of International Settlements there is $12.6 trillion of dollar-denominated debt outside of the United States. Now the Coronavirus comes into play where economies around the world are struggling to go back to their previous levels while the currencies of Emerging Markets continue to be WEAK against the US dollar.
This is very bad. We've already seen the IMF receiving requests for emergency loans from 80 countries on March 23th. What are we going to see? We know Argentina has defaulted on their debt more than once and make jokes about it. But what happens if we see 5 Argentinas? 10? 20? Even 80?
Add to that that global travel is still depressed, especially for US citizens going anywhere. US citizens traveling to other countries is also a situation in which the precious US dollars would enter Emerging Market economies. But it's not happening right now and it won't happen unless we actually get a miracle treatment or the virus simply disappears.
This is where the treasury market comes into play. But before that, let's quickly look at what QE (rising Fed balance sheet) does to the USD.
Take a look at the Trade-Weighted US dollar Index. Look at it at max timeframe - you'll see what happened in 2008. The dollar went up (shocker).Now let's look at the Fed balance sheet at max timeframe. You will see: as soon as the Fed starts the QE engine, the USD goes UP, not down! September 2008 (Fed first buys MBS), March 2009, March 2020. Is it just a coincidence? No, as I'll explain below. They're correlated and probably even in causation.Oh and in all of those scenarios the stock market crashed...compared to February 2020, the Fed balance sheet grew by ONE TRILLION until March 25th, but the stock market had just finished crashing...can you please prove to me that QE makes stock prices go up? I think I've just proven the opposite correlation.

Bonds, bills, Gold and "inflation"

People laugh at bond bulls or at people buying bonds due to the dropping yields. "Haha you're stupid you're buying an asset which matures in 10 years and yields 5.3% STONKS go up way more!".Let me stop you right there.
Why do you buy stocks? Will you hold those stocks until you die so that you regain your initial investment through dividends? No. You buy them because you expect them to go up based on fundamental analysis, news like earnings or other things. Then you sell them when you see your price target reached. The assets appreciated.Why do you buy options? You don't want to hold them until expiration unless they're -90% (what happens most of the time in WSB). You wait until the underlying asset does what you expect it does and then you sell the options to collect the premium. Again, the assets appreciated.
It's the exact same thing with treasury securities. The people who've been buying bonds for the past years or even decades didn't want to wait until they mature. Those people want to sell the bonds as they appreciate. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with their yields which is logical when you think about it. Someone who desperately wants and needs the bonds for various reasons will accept to pay a higher price (supply and demand, ya know) and therefore accept a lower yield.
By the way, both JP Morgan and Goldmans Sachs posted an unexpected profit this quarter, why? They made a killing trading bonds.
US treasury securities are the most liquid asset in the world and they're also the safest asset you can hold. After all, if the US default on their debt you know that the world is doomed. So if US treasuries become worthless anything else has already become worthless.
Now why is there so much demand for the safest and most liquid asset in the world? That demand isn't new but it's caused by the situation the global economy is in. Trade and travel are down and probably won't recover anytime soon, emerging markets are struggling both with the virus and their dollar-denominated debt and central banks around the world struggle to find solutions for the problems in the financial markets.
How do we now that the markets aren't trusting central banks? Well, bonds tell us that and actually Gold tells us the same!
TLT chartGold spot price chart
TLT is an ETF which reflects the price of US treasuries with 20 or more years left until maturity. Basically the inverse of the 30 year treasury yield.
As you can see from the 5Y chart bonds haven't been doing much from 2016 to mid-2019. Then the repo crisis of September 2019took place and TLT actually rallied in August 2019 before the repo crisis finally occurred!So the bond market signaled that something is wrong in the financial markets and that "something" manifested itself in the repo crisis.
After the repo market crisis ended (the Fed didn't really do much to help it, before you ask), bonds again were quiet for three months and started rallying in January (!) while most of the world was sitting on their asses and downplaying the Coronavirus threat.
But wait, how does Gold come into play? The Gold chart basically follows the same pattern as the TLT chart. Doing basically nothing from 2016 to mid-2019. From June until August Gold rose a staggering 200 dollars and then again stayed flat until December 2019. After that, Gold had another rally until March when it finally collapsed.
Many people think rising Gold prices are a sign of inflation. But where is the inflation? We saw PCE price indices on Friday July 31st and they're at roughly 1%. We've seen CPIs from European countries and the EU itself. France and the EU (July 31st) as a whole had a very slight uptick in CPI while Germany (July 30th), Italy (July 31st) and Spain (July 30th) saw deflationary prints.There is no inflation, nowhere in the world. I'm sorry to burst that bubble.
Yet, Gold prices still go up even when the Dollar rallies through the DXY (sadly I have to measure it that way now since the trade-weighted index isn't updated daily) and we know that there is no inflation from a monetary perspective. In fact, Fed chairman JPow, apparently the final boss for all bears, said on Wednesday July 29th that the Coronavirus pandemic is a deflationary disinflationary event. Someone correct me there, thank you. But deflationary forces are still in place even if JPow wouldn't admit it.
To conclude this rather long section: Both bonds and Gold are indicators for an upcoming financial crisis. Bond prices should fall and yields should go up to signal an economic recovery. But the opposite is happening. in that regard heavily rising Gold prices are a very bad signal for the future. Both bonds and Gold are screaming: "The central banks haven't solved the problems".
By the way, Gold is also a very liquid asset if you want quick cash, that's why we saw it sell off in March because people needed dollars thanks to repo problems and margin calls.When the deflationary shock happens and another liquidity event occurs there will be another big price drop in precious metals and that's the dip which you could use to load up on metals by the way.

Dismantling the money printer

But the Fed! The M2 money stock is SHOOTING THROUGH THE ROOF! The printers are real!By the way, velocity of M2 was updated on July 30th and saw another sharp decline. If you take a closer look at the M2 stock you see three parts absolutely skyrocketing: savings, demand deposits and institutional money funds. Inflationary? No.
So, the printers aren't real. I'm sorry.Quantitative easing (QE) is the biggest part of the Fed's operations to help the economy get back on its feet. What is QE?Upon doing QE the Fed "purchases" treasury and mortgage-backed securities from the commercial banks. The Fed forces the commercial banks to hand over those securities and in return the commercial banks reserve additional bank reserves at an account in the Federal Reserve.
This may sound very confusing to everyone so let's make it simple by an analogy.I want to borrow a camera from you, I need it for my road trip. You agree but only if I give you some kind of security - for example 100 bucks as collateral.You keep the 100 bucks safe in your house and wait for me to return safely. You just wait and wait. You can't do anything else in this situation. Maybe my road trip takes a year. Maybe I come back earlier. But as long as I have your camera, the 100 bucks need to stay with you.
In this analogy, I am the Fed. You = commercial banks. Camera = treasuries/MBS. 100 bucks = additional bank reserves held at the Fed.

Revisiting 2008 briefly: the true money printers

The true money printers are the commercial banks, not the central banks. The commercial banks give out loans and demand interest payments. Through those interest payments they create money out of thin air! At the end they'll have more money than before giving out the loan.
That additional money can be used to give out more loans, buy more treasury/MBS Securities or gain more money through investing and trading.
Before the global financial crisis commercial banks were really loose with their policy. You know, the whole "Big Short" story, housing bubble, NINJA loans and so on. The reckless handling of money by the commercial banks led to actual money printing and inflation, until the music suddenly stopped. Bear Stearns went tits up. Lehman went tits up.
The banks learned from those years and completely changed, forever. They became very strict with their lending resulting in the Fed and the ECB not being able to raise their rates. By keeping the Fed funds rate low the Federal Reserve wants to encourage commercial banks to give out loans to stimulate the economy. But commercial banks are not playing along. They even accept negative rates in Europe rather than taking risks in the actual economy.
The GFC of 2008 completely changed the financial landscape and the central banks have struggled to understand that. The system wasn't working anymore because the main players (the commercial banks) stopped playing with each other. That's also the reason why we see repeated problems in the repo market.

How QE actually decreases liquidity before it's effective

The funny thing about QE is that it achieves the complete opposite of what it's supposed to achieve before actually leading to an economic recovery.
What does that mean? Let's go back to my analogy with the camera.
Before I take away your camera, you can do several things with it. If you need cash, you can sell it or go to a pawn shop. You can even lend your camera to someone for a daily fee and collect money through that.But then I come along and just take away your camera for a road trip for 100 bucks in collateral.
What can you do with those 100 bucks? Basically nothing. You can't buy something else with those. You can't lend the money to someone else. It's basically dead capital. You can just look at it and wait until I come back.
And this is what is happening with QE.
Commercial banks buy treasuries and MBS due to many reasons, of course they're legally obliged to hold some treasuries, but they also need them to make business.When a commercial bank has a treasury security, they can do the following things with it:- Sell it to get cash- Give out loans against the treasury security- Lend the security to a short seller who wants to short bonds
Now the commercial banks received a cash reserve account at the Fed in exchange for their treasury security. What can they do with that?- Give out loans against the reserve account
That's it. The bank had to give away a very liquid and flexible asset and received an illiquid asset for it. Well done, Fed.
The goal of the Fed is to encourage lending and borrowing through suppressing yields via QE. But it's not happening and we can see that in the H.8 data (assets and liabilities of the commercial banks).There is no recovery to be seen in the credit sector while the commercial banks continue to collect treasury securities and MBS. On one hand, they need to sell a portion of them to the Fed on the other hand they profit off those securities by trading them - remember JPM's earnings.
So we see that while the Fed is actually decreasing liquidity in the markets by collecting all the treasuries it has collected in the past, interest rates are still too high. People are scared, and commercial banks don't want to give out loans. This means that as the economic recovery is stalling (another whopping 1.4M jobless claims on Thursday July 30th) the Fed needs to suppress interest rates even more. That means: more QE. that means: the liquidity dries up even more, thanks to the Fed.
We heard JPow saying on Wednesday that the Fed will keep their minimum of 120 billion QE per month, but, and this is important, they can increase that amount anytime they see an emergency.And that's exactly what he will do. He will ramp up the QE machine again, removing more bond supply from the market and therefore decreasing the liquidity in financial markets even more. That's his Hail Mary play to force Americans back to taking on debt again.All of that while the government is taking on record debt due to "stimulus" (which is apparently only going to Apple, Amazon and Robinhood). Who pays for the government debt? The taxpayers. The wealthy people. The people who create jobs and opportunities. But in the future they have to pay more taxes to pay down the government debt (or at least pay for the interest). This means that they can't create opportunities right now due to the government going insane with their debt - and of course, there's still the Coronavirus.

"Without the Fed, yields would skyrocket"

This is wrong. The Fed has been keeping their basic level QE of 120 billion per month for months now. But ignoring the fake breakout in the beginning of June (thanks to reopening hopes), yields have been on a steady decline.
Let's take a look at the Fed's balance sheet.
The Fed has thankfully stayed away from purchasing more treasury bills (short term treasury securities). Bills are important for the repo market as collateral. They're the best collateral you can have and the Fed has already done enough damage by buying those treasury bills in March, destroying even more liquidity than usual.
More interesting is the point "notes and bonds, nominal". The Fed added 13.691 billion worth of US treasury notes and bonds to their balance sheet. Luckily for us, the US Department of Treasury releases the results of treasury auctions when they occur. On July 28th there was an auction for the 7 year treasury note. You can find the results under "Note -> Term: 7-year -> Auction Date 07/28/2020 -> Competitive Results PDF". Or here's a link.
What do we see? Indirect bidders, which are foreigners by the way, took 28 billion out of the total 44 billion. That's roughly 64% of the entire auction. Primary dealers are the ones which sell the securities to the commercial banks. Direct bidders are domestic buyers of treasuries.
The conclusion is: There's insane demand for US treasury notes and bonds by foreigners. Those US treasuries are basically equivalent to US dollars. Now dollar bears should ask themselves this question: If the dollar is close to a collapse and the world wants to get rid fo the US dollar, why do foreigners (i.e. foreign central banks) continue to take 60-70% of every bond auction? They do it because they desperately need dollars and hope to drive prices up, supported by the Federal Reserve itself, in an attempt to have the dollar reserves when the next liquidity event occurs.
So foreigners are buying way more treasuries than the Fed does. Final conclusion: the bond market has adjusted to the Fed being a player long time ago. It isn't the first time the Fed has messed around in the bond market.

How market participants are positioned

We know that commercial banks made good money trading bonds and stocks in the past quarter. Besides big tech the stock market is being stagnant, plain and simple. All the stimulus, stimulus#2, vaccinetalksgoingwell.exe, public appearances by Trump, Powell and their friends, the "money printing" (which isn't money printing) by the Fed couldn't push SPY back to ATH which is 339.08 btw.
Who can we look at? Several people but let's take Bill Ackman. The one who made a killing with Credit Default Swaps in March and then went LONG (he said it live on TV). Well, there's an update about him:Bill Ackman saying he's effectively 100% longHe says that around the 2 minute mark.
Of course, we shouldn't just believe what he says. After all he is a hedge fund manager and wants to make money. But we have to assume that he's long at a significant percentage - it doesn't even make sense to get rid of positions like Hilton when they haven't even recovered yet.
Then again, there are sources to get a peek into the positions of hedge funds, let's take Hedgopia.We see: Hedge funds are starting to go long on the 10 year bond. They are very short the 30 year bond. They are very long the Euro, very short on VIX futures and short on the Dollar.

Endgame

This is the perfect setup for a market meltdown. If hedge funds are really positioned like Ackman and Hedgopia describes, the situation could unwind after a liquidity event:The Fed increases QE to bring down the 30 year yield because the economy isn't recovering yet. We've already seen the correlation of QE and USD and QE and bond prices.That causes a giant short squeeze of hedge funds who are very short the 30 year bond. They need to cover their short positions. But Ackman said they're basically 100% long the stock market and nothing else. So what do they do? They need to sell stocks. Quickly. And what happens when there is a rapid sell-off in stocks? People start to hedge via put options. The VIX rises. But wait, hedge funds are short VIX futures, long Euro and short DXY. To cover their short positions on VIX futures, they need to go long there. VIX continues to go up and the prices of options go suborbital (as far as I can see).Also they need to get rid of Euro futures and cover their short DXY positions. That causes the USD to go up even more.
And the Fed will sit there and do their things again: more QE, infinity QE^2, dollar swap lines, repo operations, TARP and whatever. The Fed will be helpless against the forces of the market and have to watch the stock market burn down and they won't even realize that they created the circumstances for it to happen - by their programs to "help the economy" and their talking on TV. Do you remember JPow on 60minutes talking about how they flooded the world with dollars and print it digitally? He wanted us poor people to believe that the Fed is causing hyperinflation and we should take on debt and invest into the stock market. After all, the Fed has it covered.
But the Fed hasn't got it covered. And Powell knows it. That's why he's being a bear in the FOMC statements. He knows what's going on. But he can't do anything about it except what's apparently proven to be correct - QE, QE and more QE.

A final note about "stock market is not the economy"

It's true. The stock market doesn't reflect the current state of the economy. The current economy is in complete shambles.
But a wise man told me that the stock market is the reflection of the first and second derivatives of the economy. That means: velocity and acceleration of the economy. In retrospect this makes sense.
The economy was basically halted all around the world in March. Of course it's easy to have an insane acceleration of the economy when the economy is at 0 and the stock market reflected that. The peak of that accelerating economy ("max velocity" if you want to look at it like that) was in the beginning of June. All countries were reopening, vaccine hopes, JPow injecting confidence into the markets. Since then, SPY is stagnant, IWM/RUT, which is probably the most accurate reflection of the actual economy, has slightly gone down and people have bid up tech stocks in absolute panic mode.
Even JPow admitted it. The economic recovery has slowed down and if we look at economic data, the recovery has already stopped completely. The economy is rolling over as we can see in the continued high initial unemployment claims. Another fact to factor into the stock market.

TLDR and positions or ban?

TLDR: global economy bad and dollar shortage. economy not recovering, JPow back to doing QE Infinity. QE Infinity will cause the final squeeze in both the bond and stock market and will force the unwinding of the whole system.
Positions: idk. I'll throw in TLT 190c 12/18, SPY 220p 12/18, UUP 26c 12/18.That UUP call had 12.5k volume on Friday 7/31 btw.

Edit about positions and hedge funds

My current positions. You can laugh at my ZEN calls I completely failed with those.I personally will be entering one of the positions mentioned in the end - or similar ones. My personal opinion is that the SPY puts are the weakest try because you have to pay a lot of premium.
Also I forgot talking about why hedge funds are shorting the 30 year bond. Someone asked me in the comments and here's my reply:
"If you look at treasury yields and stock prices they're pretty much positively correlated. Yields go up, then stocks go up. Yields go down (like in March), then stocks go down.
What hedge funds are doing is extremely risky but then again, "hedge funds" is just a name and the hedgies are known for doing extremely risky stuff. They're shorting the 30 year bond because they needs 30y yields to go UP to validate their long positions in the equity market. 30y yields going up means that people are welcoming risk again, taking on debt, spending in the economy.
Milton Friedman labeled this the "interest rate fallacy". People usually think that low interest rates mean "easy money" but it's the opposite. Low interest rates mean that money is really tight and hard to get. Rising interest rates on the other hand signal an economic recovery, an increase in economic activity.
So hedge funds try to fight the Fed - the Fed is buying the 30 year bonds! - to try to validate their stock market positions. They also short VIX futures to do the same thing. Equity bulls don't want to see VIX higher than 15. They're also short the dollar because it would also validate their position: if the economic recovery happens and the global US dollar cycle gets restored then it will be easy to get dollars and the USD will continue to go down.
Then again, they're also fighting against the Fed in this situation because QE and the USD are correlated in my opinion.
Another Redditor told me that people who shorted Japanese government bonds completely blew up because the Japanese central bank bought the bonds and the "widow maker trade" was born:https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/widow-maker.asp"

Edit #2

Since I've mentioned him a lot in the comments, I recommend you check out Steven van Metre's YouTube channel. Especially the bottom passages of my post are based on the knowledge I received from watching his videos. Even if didn't agree with him on the fundamental issues (there are some things like Gold which I view differently than him) I took it as an inspiration to dig deeper. I think he's a great person and even if you're bullish on stocks you can learn something from Steven!

submitted by 1terrortoast to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Wheel on Futures Options

Premiums and theta on /ES options seem too good to be true, so I assume I'm missing something.
I'm aware that extreme leverage coupled with the expiration of the future contract adds new layers of risk, but it seems like a feasible strategy.
Anyone run the wheel on Futures Options? If so, would you be willing to share your lessons learned?
submitted by dolphin4265 to thetagang [link] [comments]

Cornering Silver Market

Cornering Silver Market
Would you like to entertain yourself with a story about one of the greatest schemes in the history and, maybe, learn a few plays? This story is about three brave autistic brothers, who almost cornered the entire commodity and how one (not so brave, but shrewd) bank did it without anyone noticing. As in any good fable – there’s a moral and a strategy that you could draw from it.
The year is 1971. Nixon temporarily abolishes gold standard. And every temporary government program is never reversed, as you know. Trading price of gold went sky high: from 270s to 800s in two years or so. Enter Hunt brothers, sons of H. L. Hunt, oil tycoon, one of, if not the, richest man in the world at that time. Hunt family was, what one might describe as, right-wing libertarian and anti-globalist. They believed that Keynesian economics and the US shift to the left in the 60s will lead to the debasement of the US dollar and monetary collapse. Thus, return to the gold or silver standard was the way, as they thought. Allegedly, Hunts also had a feud with Rothschild family and other financial speculators, and were resentful towards the US government for doing nothing to protect their oil assets in Libya, confiscated by Gaddafi. So they started their move against America, alpha-silver bug style.
In 1973 Hunts began buying all the silver they could. And, instead of just speculating futures contracts, they actually took delivery. Initial price was $1.5/oz. Silver was shipped to Switzerland in secretive and costly operations and stored in vaults (brothers feared confiscations – remember, private citizens were still prohibited from owning gold in the US).
The following events are quite vivid and include the efforts to create a cartel similar to OPEC, talks with Iran and Saudi monarchs, pump and dump publicity and large scale purchases of miners. But we will spare the details, except one: Hunts even tried to corner the soy market at the same time. Reminds you how WSB slv gang quickly switched to corn gang. But the soy scheme didn't fly and they focused on silver only. Their efforts pumped the price to almost $50/oz by early 1980. At some point Hunts controlled around 230 million oz of silver and the majority of what was traded.

Hunt brothers laughing at your pump&dump effort

Of course, when you are such a smart ass, you become a target. Chicago exchange officials became very concerned citizens by 1979. They started issuing numerous regulations limiting the amount of market share one can accumulate in one hands. As all American concerned citizens, they had financial incentive to do so: Hunts managed to prove that Chicago exchange board members had short positions against silver. Finally, CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) issued a ruling that basically forced Hunts to liquidate part of their portfolio by February 1980. This sent silver prices down dramatically and brothers started to get margin calls which they could not cover. And so their story ended with bankruptcies and heavy fines for the family. Shortly after, Reagan and Volcker raised interest rates and silver price never recovered to $50/oz ever since.
We skip to the year 2008. Global financial crisis is in full swing. Bear Stearns is royally fucked, as due to all bears. Before the music was over, they mastered paper speculation of futures contracts like no one else. Bear Stearns accumulated world biggest naked short position on silver. What could go wrong? Stonks go up, silver goes down. Until it reversed and silver skyrocketed from $11 to $21. This became one of the margin calls to screw Bear Stearns. JP Morgan is asked by the FED and co. to buy out BS and to save the entire market. Since BS's shorts are now deeply down - JPM gets the whole bank with pennies on a dollar.
But the problem is that JPM themselves have massive naked short position on silver. Combined with BS it will exceed anything permitted by the CFTC. Since Obama administration was in a rush, they push CFTC to grant JPM basically a carte blanche to accumulate any position over the limit for a period of time. Period of time comes due and turns out that JPM not only didn’t trim the shorts significantly – they even bought more shorts at some point. Even with all the fines, it went very much their way, because in 2009 silver dropped. So they pocketed hundreds of millions of dollars.
But come 2011 and silver spiked again, dramatically. JPM, now bleeding cash on shorts, could close short positions, like any of us would do, right? Nope, fuckyall says JPM and starts hedging short futures positions with… physical silver. 'But wouldn’t that be even more control over the commodity?' - you might ask. See, nothing in the rules of CFTC says you can’t do that, because to help cronies speculate with paper futures contracts, made of thin air, CFTC basically started treating physical silver and futures as two different instruments (it’s, actually, even more complicated than that: google difference between physical, eligible, registered and so on).
In the next 9 years JPM becomes the world biggest holder of both short contracts and physical silver. The later they 'loaned' to SLV trust, of which they are custodian. This way upkeep of physical silver, which otherwise would be a liability for hedging, becomes an asset, because we, retards, who own SLV pay the maintenance. People are often confused here, because SLV is issued by Black Rock, not JPM. Well, there is a difference between being an operator of a financial instrument and being a custodian providing backing. Now, to confuse you even more – JPM is one of the major holders of Black Rock itself with 1.6% or sth like that.
By estimates of Theodore Butler, JPM acquired 900 million oz of physical silver since 2011. That’s 4 times more than what Hunts owned. Just shows you, that banks can get a pass with something that even the richest individuals can not. And you have to give it to JPM - their play was very clever. Instead of risking it all on a margin call, they make money on every turn.
As of 2020, JPM still holds both shitton of physical silver and short COMEX contracts. You can call this the most epic straddle of all time. With such mass they can swing prices in any directions and profit from this on any given day. Latest example you’ve seen on the August 11th.
Why am I bothering your poor gambling soul with this wall of text, you might ask? Market makers manipulate the market as they please, what’s new about that? Well, here we come to the conclusions and a strategy. How can a small retard replicate what the big boys are doing?
Conclusions:
  1. There will not be a linear up or down with silver and the swings might be dramatic. The reason being not only the sentiment of investors, but the ease of manipulation that is eligible to big players.
  2. If we believe that speculation will throw the price of silver in all directions – it is unwise to go only long or short on silver, especially on a short term;
What shall we do?
a) Only long expiration dates and calls; no weekly expiration, not even monthly. Ideally – at least half year options;
b) Go long on certain silver stocks. Maybe I’ll do a write up on good silver stocks to buy;
c) Sell covered calls on long positions;
d) Buy 1-3 month puts on your long positions as a hedge;
Now, day trade with those positions: on red days sell your puts and buy back covered calls. On green days – reload puts and sell calls. Repeat until lambo.
P. S.: I gathered these facts from the open sources, since these events were of interest to me. Some facts are intentionally oversimplified, google for more details, there are good reads. And feel free to correct me if you know contradictory facts.
P. P. S.: JPM, plz don’t whack me.
submitted by negovany to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Q&A SESSION WITH SWITCHEO CO-FOUNDERS IVAN POON & JACK YEU

Q&A SESSION WITH SWITCHEO CO-FOUNDERS IVAN POON & JACK YEUON TELEGRAM at getrichwithmandygroupchat 23/07/2020
Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 11:33]
Hey everyone. Happy to share abit more about what's going on at Switcheo
Jack Yeu, [23.07.20 11:34]
happy to be here 🙂
Q:Brad, [23.07.20 11:35]
Hello Jack
Can you please share some details about future developments and upgrages
A:Jack Yeu, [23.07.20 11:36]
hey Brad, we’re currently working on a few developments for Switcheo, namely Switcheo Tradehub (previously Switcheo Chain) and DeMex (a decentralized derivatives platform built on Switcheo Tradehub)
Q:Brad, [23.07.20 11:36]
I love switcho exchange but little bit conscious about its trading volume and liquidity.
Do you guys have any plan for that?
A:Jack Yeu, [23.07.20 11:39]
yes, Switcheo TradeHub will have an inbuilt AMM model where users can stake tokens into liquidity pools to earn provider fees (quite similar to how uniswap works) to provide liquidity onto the spot trading pairs
Q:Mostafa nazar, [23.07.20 11:35]
Hi
How will BTC be available on Tradehub in non-custodial way?
Will it be like renBTC or will you use different tech?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 11:39]
renBTC is quite a good protocol which can be used to automatically wrap BTC through an ethereum smart contract, for e.g. seamlessly using it with the deposit / lock contract. However fees are still high and we do have another protocol that we will use initially.
Q:Olexander, [23.07.20 11:36]
What's the plan to Increase the Demand & Value of the native token?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 11:41]
we have two articles here talking about SWTH token. On top of that there's more value propositions that we're releasing in a future article soon
A:Jack Yeu:
SWTH will be used for validating transactions on Switcheo TradeHub through staking, where stakers will earn transaction + trading fees generated by Switcheo Exchange; there are also other use cases for SWTH tokens - I’ve linked an article below for those who would like to find out more:
https://blog.switcheo.network/enhancing-the-switcheo-token/
Q:Terrupi©, [23.07.20 11:36]
What is your strategy to marketing and for Mass Adoption? What message do you want to send to community through AMA today?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 11:44]
I don't think such things can be easily discussed in an AMA format. There's many angles to marketing and we are tackling them all. We're also still far from mass adoption in terms of the entire crypto landscape. In the meantime we'll just keep building what we think is most needed.
For today we just want to share more about Switcheo and catch up with our community!
Q:Jacopo DioBrando, [23.07.20 11:36]
Can u talk about Demex and what is the edge of Switcheo compared to other hundreds exchanges u/ravenxce ?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 11:45]
I think demex will be the first derivative exchange that is scalable and you can place your bets with in a fair and transparent manner
Q:edWARd SNOVden | TFF, [23.07.20 11:36]
Hello, with how many validators will the tradehub start?
There are two different numbers. In the article "Enhancing The Switcheo Token" it's 11, and in a post of Ivan on twitter is "open for all". What is correct?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 11:47]
It's open for all, but only the top 11 will be active and actually earn block proposer rewards / commissions. As we increase the number of validators, more validators will be able to earn that. So basically it's about controlling how many active proposers there are.
Q:Bhaskar, [23.07.20 11:36]
Security is very important so,how about #Switcheo security systems? Is it enough safe because recently many exchanges get hacked and what makes #Switcheo different from other project?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 11:48]
I think so. We are looking at NXM (Nexus Mutual) as an insurance option which will also give users more confidence in the DEX.
As mentioned above, we're looking at Nexus Mutual insurance to allow coverage on our ethereum smart contracts. We also will have an insurance fund for the upcoming TradeHub platform.
Q:Nic, [23.07.20 11:45]
With the uprising and adoption of BEP2 standard, slowly most of the ERC20 tokens are migrating to BEP2 and listed on Binance DEX. What is your take on this? Will Ethererum based DEX exist in long run considering the network constraints of Ethererum network?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 11:49]
Ethereum's current scalability is one of the primary reasons for building Switcheo TradeHub which acts as a sidechain / scaling solution. With that we are confident of solving issues of high fees that currently plague defi, including Switcheo Exchange.
A:Jack Yeu, [23.07.20 11:49]
I think that while Binance Dex has fast order settlements, it still lacks a degree of decentralization with Binance using their .com as a gateway for tokens that already exist on other chains to swap, for example if you want to swap an ERC-20 token to BEP-2, you would have to lock the tokens via .com ; DEXs on ethereum however are getting increasingly expensive to operate due to high gas costs
Q:Suraj Rajput, [23.07.20 11:45]
Defi seems to be a useful $switcheo and concept right now. Many and many finance-related blockchain projects are built with Defi inside. So, beside cooperating with banking, has your team ever thought about integrating Defi into $switcheo platform ?
A:Jack Yeu, [23.07.20 11:50]
our focus has always been around defi with many of the upcoming concepts around demex incorporating familiar products already in the space; i’m not sure what do you mean by cooperating with banking
Q:Nic, [23.07.20 11:45]
Word decentralization means nothing centralized like email, etc. Can developers create full dex exchange on Switcheo no email nothing?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 11:51]
You can already connect to Switcheo directly from your personal wallet like Metamask or Trust wallet.
Q:A. Ivanov, [23.07.20 11:45]
For Decentralized Exchanges, Liquidity is major Issue.. So, How Switcheo Platform solve the Liquidity problems from it's Exchange?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 11:53]
We're building cross-chain liquidity pools similar to uniswap and balancer into Switcheo TradeHub, and will have on-chain incentives to attract liquidity providers. We're also integrating these L1 liquidity pools like kyber and uniswap. These combined with external market makers will improve exchange liquidity.
Q:Vincent, [23.07.20 11:56]
Will Switcheo have real BTC trading with order books? In what way will it be similar or different to BTC trading on Nash?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 11:58]
Of course. No idea how Nash does it as none of their core code is open source till this date to our knowledge.
Q:Brad, [23.07.20 11:58]
Love to see fiat gateway
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 12:00]
We did have a fiat gateway for awhile. But integrating fiat is expensive and not cost effective. We're focusing on decentralized efforts / defi for now.
Q:Ashish Tripathi, [23.07.20 11:56]
Switcheo Platform offers DEX on Ethereum, EOS, NEO ! But Do you have any Plans to add More Blockchains Like Tron, Binance Chain in Switcheo Platform?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 12:02]
Yes. We really want to add many more blockchains, and will be one of our priorities in the near future.
Q:Roshan 🇮🇳🇸🇪, [23.07.20 12:01]
u/ravenxce Hey there Ivan hope you and your team are in good health
I wanted to know recently with some windows 10 updates logging into Switcheo using the ledger hardware wallet is next to impossible any work around instead of just changing the OS ?
How will you tackle the legal hurdles of integrating a decentralised cross chain platform with a Fiat gateway ?
Thank you in advance
All the best
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 12:03]
I think we added webusb support which should fix most issues on ethereum. For neo routing through a software wallet like O3 is the best. If we have time we may be able to submit an update for the neo ledger app to support webusb, so that can be fixed too.
Q:Joseph, [23.07.20 11:58]
What is the structure of the company, is it a decentralised, open sourced protocol where everybody can contribute? If so, how does the governance plan on being handled?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 12:04]
For now, most of the development work is centralized. But we're moving towards a DAO model, where it's really community driven and developed in a fully open manner. Blog post soon on this as well.
Q:Michael Jackson, [23.07.20 11:57]
What business scenarios can Switcheo Network support now? In what industry can we see a mass adoption of Switcheo Network technology in the near future?
A:Jack Yeu, [23.07.20 12:05]
switcheo tradehub lets developers build order matching types of platforms (such as exchanges) on the chain itself, we’re also working on actual use cases for tradehub
Q:NasdaQ Ryong, [23.07.20 11:58]
Could you tell us some details about Support of Switcheo? Is it active 24/7?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 12:05]
Yes. We have someone always available. Max response time is at most 1-2 hours usually.
Q:Jacopo DioBrando, [23.07.20 11:58]
Is it true that on Demex it will be possible to trade more or less any asset?
A:Jack Yeu, [23.07.20 12:06]
yes, anyone would be able to create any sorts of CFD markets
Q:Joseph, [23.07.20 11:56]
Is Switcheo easy for new users? Can you highlights some points that attract users who don't know too much about Switcheo ?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 12:07]
I think all they need to do is try it to see how easy it is to use. I think being able to trade with an order book plus uniswap / kyber as a liquidity pool is quite unique.
Q:Joseph, [23.07.20 11:56]
How does #Switcheo get profit from running the project?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 12:08]
For the team, we hold SWTH tokens, so we profit from an increase in treasury as well as earn a proportion of the trading fees
Q:Maxim, [23.07.20 11:56]
I really hadn't heard of the Switcheo Network, but I have used Uniswap. Does it have the same operation and is it easy to manipulate? what differentiates Switcheo from Uniswap?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 12:09]
It's a little different in that we use a deposit / order book / withdraw model. It's cheaper if you're making multiple orders, and you can do limit orders more easily unlike on uniswap.
Q:Pubudu Eranga, [23.07.20 11:56]
Switcheo is now running on the NEO, ETH and EOS blockchain. One of the future plans of Switcheo is creating their own chain. But is there any specific date for this to happen?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 12:10]
very soon ™️. our testnet is already ongoing
Q:Mostafa nazar, [23.07.20 11:57]
Will switcheo support elastic AMM pools (for example 20-80%) pools to lower impermanent loss for liquidity providers? Like what balancer did
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 12:12]
Yes, this requirement has been recently added
Q:Raghav, [23.07.20 11:57]
In my opinion DeFi is still in Early Stage & it Needs Huge Developments to grow! But, What are your Future Thoughts for DeFi Markets?
A:Jack Yeu, [23.07.20 12:12]
we do see a lot of current demand and uses for defi products such as curvefi, uniswap, switcheo; which would likely spawn a new wave of more advanced projects built around current defi protocols, such as switcheo tradehub :)
Q:Brad, [23.07.20 11:57]
How robust are you to handle 21st century volume of transactions Your metamorphosis is a laudable one, how have you been able to survive on longest bear market and continue building and developing cos many projects have died out
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 12:14]
We are confident of the scalability of our upcoming platforms. Surviving is a matter of being agile and managing risk and treasury well I guess.
Q:Castro Tiburcio, [23.07.20 11:57]
Few crypto platform project have very slow interface usage on their platform because of overload from the server itself especially when there is big move in the market like btc crash.
How Switcheo platform handle this issue?
A:Ivan Poon, [23.07.20 12:17]
At the moment we have an off-chain matching engine. So we can take the load and queue them up to broadcast to smart contracts asynchronously. When Switcheo TradeHub launches, it will be similar but the matching engine will be distributed across many validator nodes!
A:Jack Yeu, [23.07.20 12:19]
great question - the issue with ethereum onchain dexs that deal with margin/deriviatives would be these sorts of black swan events involving mass liquidations (which would result in high gas fees and failed txns), which then flood the chain and prevent cancellations or stop losses from occuring.
by moving onto switcheo tradehub, we save on transactions costs and benefit from higher tps
submitted by imolev to NEO [link] [comments]

MCS | What is the Insurance Fund?

MCS | What is the Insurance Fund?
\This post has been written by Hedgehog, an MCS influencer and one of Korea's famous cryptocurrency key opinion leaders.*
https://preview.redd.it/rgbiq45iwwi51.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=7416a32e220ba78c97bcd99bf09c16d30d5b69cf
#Be_a_Trader!
Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.

Today, we will look at the concept of insurance funds, an essential components of cryptocurrency perpetual contracts.

🎯 What is the Insurance Fund?

Insurance funds exist to prevent contract losses and to minimize the initiation of Auto-Deleveraging (ADL). If the final execution price* is worse than the bankruptcy price, the insurance fund covers the loss instead of implementing the ADL system. The MCS Cryptocurrency Derivatives Exchange transparently operates the insurance fund, and all MCS traders can check the current balance and fund details of the insurance fund on the insurance fund page* of the exchange.
*Final Execution Price : The actual filled price of the Liquidation Engine when a position is liquidated.
*Insurance Fund Page : https://mycoinstory.com/contract/insurance-history
It's hard to understand with only the explanation above right? T.T Hedgehog will explain it in further detail.
If all positions do not meet the minimum maintenance margin requirement, the positions will be liquidated. When liquidation occurs, the clearing house of the MCS cryptocurrency derivatives exchange acquires the liquidated positions and closes them. If the clearing house of MCS clears the position at a higher price than the bankruptcy price of the position, some of the margin will remain as surplus, this will be added and accumulated to the insurance fund. Conversely, if a contract loss occurs, the insurance fund compensates for the loss.
In short, the insurance fund is a mechanism that can compensate for contract losses that may occur in the process of closing liquidated positions by the clearing house.

🎯 How Insurance Funds Operate

All positions have a liquidation price and a bankruptcy price. The liquidation price is the price that triggers the liquidation (When margin reaches maintenance margin). When the market price reaches the bankruptcy price, it means the margin for that position is zero. If the final execution price of a position is better than the bankruptcy price, the remaining margin balance after liquidation is added to the insurance fund. Conversely, if the final execution price is lower than the bankruptcy price, contract loss will occur, which is covered by the insurance fund.

Bob has a BTC/USDT perpetual contract, with liquidation price at 12,500 USDT and bankruptcy price at 12,000 USDT. When the mark price reaches 12,500 USDT, Bob's position is liquidated. At this time, the MCS clearing house acquires Bob's liquidated position and closes the position. If the final execution price is 12,300 USDT, which is higher than the bankruptcy price of 12,000 USDT, the margin remaining after the liquidation of the position is added to the insurance fund. However, if the final execution price is 11,500 USDT, which is lower than the bankruptcy price of 12,000 USDT, the contract loss incurred will be covered by the insurance fund.
I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post.
🔸 MCS Official Website : https://mycoinstory.com
🔸 MCS Telegram : https://t.me/mycoinstory_en

Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS.
Thank you.

MCS Official Twitter (EN): https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs
MCS Official Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official
submitted by MyCoinStory to MyCoinStory [link] [comments]

BitOffer Institute: Decentralized Options — the Next DeFi Hotspot and Lifesaver of Bitcoin Contract

BitOffer Institute: Decentralized Options — the Next DeFi Hotspot and Lifesaver of Bitcoin Contract

https://preview.redd.it/n4g9y8aq1ai51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b2236713450ad0a21b544e07c170067cad80f29
DeFi has a total market cap of $13.022 billion, according to Glassnode, it covers a wide range of sectors including currencies, loans, synthetic assets, instrument architecture (such as forex), exchanges, etc. However, there is a large gap in the derivatives area, such as options. Thus, Institutions such as FinNexus and Chainlink predict that decentralized options will be the next DeFi hotspot, which could be the lifesaver of the Bitcoin contract.
DeFi decentralized options address the crucial points of current decentralized options and the points about investor participation in traditional finance.
  1. In essence, an option is a kind of contract that gives the option holder the right to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price on a specific period. The buyer of the option has only rights but no obligations, and the seller of the option has only obligations but no rights. The risk of the buyer is the loss of capital to gain the unlimited potential of profit. The risk of the seller is to earn the option premium under the unlimited potential of loss. The imbalance of such rights and obligations leads to the difference between the risk attributes of the buyer and the seller.
  2. Even if there are professional institutional participants, as sellers, in order to control their own risks, they still need to rely on abundant risk hedging tools to hedge their potential risks. At the moment in the DeFi market, it is clear that the selection of these hedging instruments is very scarce.
  3. Traditional options are matched by order books and need to rely on professional market makers, which, if carried out in the chain, will cause problems of low efficiency and high cost. Recently, the GAS fee on Ethereum has reached 300Gwei, and the high cost will greatly reduce the enthusiasm of users to participate.
  4. Due to the liquidity, for the buyer, the option buyer cannot choose the option products as they expect, such as different underlying assets, different strike prices, or products with an expiration date.
In view of these problems, the decentralized liquidity options of DeFi arising subsequently. By establishing the liquidity option deposit pool as the counterparty of all users who purchase options. The premium and other agreements rewards are brought into the pool and share by the joining users, all the returns and risk of investment options will also be borne by the entire pool of users.
The potential of decentralized option flow pools is that it can freely create options with the underlying asset, which not only the digital currencies such as BTC but also the traditional financial assets. Compared with the centralized options, it eliminates the middleman and counterparty, has unlimited liquidity, and the ability to pledge mines.
With the popularity of DeFi decentralized options, the trading strategy of hedging with options and contracts will be used by more people to reduce the risk of being liquidation. After the option hedging, even if the contract is under liquidation, the profit is still far greater than the contract principal, thus, the profit can be maintained eventually.
Here is a detailed description of the hedging strategy of making money under contract liquidation.
For example, now the Bitcoin price is $10,000:
Open long 20X Bitcoin at $800;
Meanwhile, buy 2 put options contracts on BitOffer (the total budget is $60).
✅ The first situation: When the Bitcoin price increases by $200 (+2%):
  1. Open long 20X Bitcoin: Earning 40% in profits, $320.
  2. Lose the premium that you use to buy put options contract: -$60.
  3. The net profit will be $320-$60= $260.
✅The second situation: When the Bitcoin price decreases by $200 (-2%):
1.Open long 20X Bitcoin: Losing 40%, $320.
  1. The Put Options contracts You buy earn $400.
  2. The net profit will be $400-$320–$60=$20.
This is only one of the strategies of the contract, there are many other strategies that I won’t show you here. To sum up, the hedging strategy could help us profitable no matter it’s ups or downs, even when the contract hit the liquidation.
However, it should be noted that the options that we’ve mentioned in this article specifically refer to the BTC options (American version) without margin, commission fee, and liquidation mechanism, which are issued globally by BitOffer Exchange. If you choose traditional European options such as from OKEX and JEX, you cannot carry out such contract hedging, and there is a liquidity risk as well.
submitted by Bitoffer_Official to BitOffer_Official [link] [comments]

What Is a Bear Market?

Introduction

Financial markets move in trends. It’s important to understand the differences between these trends to be able to make better investment decisions. How come? Well, different market trends can lead to wildly different market conditions. If you don’t know what the underlying trend is, how are you going to adapt to changing conditions?
A market trend is the overall direction that the market is going. In a bear market, prices are generally declining. Bear markets can be a challenging time to trade or invest in, especially for beginners.
Most crypto traders and technical analysts agree that Bitcoin has been in a macro bull trend throughout its existence. Even so, there have been several relentless cryptocurrency bear markets. These generally bring more than an 80% decline in the price of Bitcoin, while altcoins can easily experience more than 90% declines. What can you do during these times?
In this article, we’ll discuss what a bear market is, how you should prepare for it, and how you may be able to profit in it.
If you’d like to read about bull markets first, check out What Is a Bull Market?(https://medium.com/@Citex/what-is-a-bull-market-2aac528c25f0

What is a bear market?

A bear market can be described as a period of declining prices in a financial market. Bear markets can be extremely risky and difficult to trade for inexperienced traders. They can easily lead to great losses and scare investors from ever returning to the financial markets. How come?
There’s this saying among traders: “Stairs up, elevators down.” This means that moves to the upside may be slow and steady, while moves to the downside tend to be more sharp and violent. Why is that? When the price starts crashing, many traders rush to exit the markets. They do that to either stay in cash or lock in profits from their long positions. This can quickly result in a domino effect where sellers rushing to the exit leads to even more sellers exiting their positions, and so on. The drop can be amplified even more if the market is highly leveraged. Mass liquidations will have an even more pronounced cascading effect, resulting in a violent sell-off.
With that said, bull markets can also have phases of euphoria. During these times, prices are increasing at an extreme rate, correlations are higher than usual, and a majority of assets are going up in tandem.
Typically, investors are “bearish” in a bear market, meaning that they expect prices to decline. This also means that market sentiment is generally quite low. However, this may not mean that all market participants are in active short positions. This just means that they expect prices to decline and may be looking to position themselves accordingly if the opportunity presents itself.

Bear market examples

As we’ve discussed, many investors think that Bitcoin has been in a macro bull trend since it started trading. Does that mean there aren’t bear markets contained in that bull run? No. After Bitcoin’s move to around $20,000 in December 2017, it’s had quite a brutal bear market.
And before the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin experienced an 86% drop in 2014.
As of July 2020, the range of the previous bear market low around $3,000 have been retested but never broken. If that low would have been breached, a stronger argument could be made that a multi-year Bitcoin bear market is still underway.
Since that level has not been broken, the argument can be made that the crash following COVID-19 fears was merely a retest of the range. Still, there are no certainties when it comes to technical analysis, only probabilities.
Other notable bear market examples come from the stock market. The Great Depression, the 2008 Financial Crisis, or the 2020 stock market crash due to the coronavirus pandemic are all noteworthy examples. These events have all caused great damage on Wall Street and impacted stock prices across the board. Market indexes such as the Nasdaq 100, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), or the S&P 500 index can experience significant price declines during times like these.

Bear market vs. bull market — what’s the difference?

The difference is fairly straightforward. In a bull market, prices are going up, while in a bear market, prices fall.
One notable difference may be that bear markets can have long periods of consolidation, i.e., sideways or ranging price action. These are times when market volatility is quite low, and there’s little trading activity happening. While the same may be true in bull markets, this kind of behavior tends to be more prevalent in bear markets. After all, prices going down for an extended period isn’t very attractive for most investors.
Something else to consider is whether it’s possible to enter a short position on an asset in the first place. If there’s no ability to short an asset on margin or using derivatives, traders can only express a bearish view on the market by selling for cash or stablecoins. This can lead to a longer, drawn-out downtrend with little buying interest, resulting in a slow and uneventful sideways price action.

How to trade in a bear market

One of the simplest strategies traders can use in a bear market is to stay in cash (or stablecoins). If you’re not comfortable with prices declining, it may be better to simply wait until the market gets out of bear market territory. If there’s an expectation that a new bull market may come at some point in the future, you can take advantage of it when it does. At the same time, if you’re long-term HODLing with an investment time horizon of many years or decades, a bear market isn’t necessarily a direct signal to sell.
When it comes to trading and investing, it’s generally a better idea to trade with the direction of the market trend. This is why another lucrative strategy in bear markets could be to open short positions. This way, when asset prices are going down, traders can profit off the decline. These can be day trades, swing trades, position trades — the main intention is simply to trade in the direction of the trend. With that said, many contrarian traders will look for “counter-trend” trades, meaning trades that are against the direction of the major trend. Let’s see how that works.
In the case of a bear market, this would be entering a long position on a bounce. This move is sometimes called a “bear market rally” or a “dead cat bounce”. These counter-trend price moves can be notoriously volatile, as many traders may jump on the opportunity to long a short-term bounce. However, until the overall bear market is confirmed to be over, the assumption is that the downtrend will resume right after the bounce.
This is why successful traders will take profits (around the recent highs) and exit before the bear trend resumes. Otherwise, they could be stuck in their long position while the bear market continues. As such, it’s important to note that this is a highly risky strategy. Even the most advanced traders can incur significant losses when trying to catch a falling knife.

Closing thoughts

We’ve discussed what a bear market is, how traders may protect themselves and profit off bear markets. In summary, the most straightforward strategy is to stay in cash in a bear market — and wait for a safer opportunity to trade. Alternatively, many traders will look for opportunities to build short positions. As we know, it’s wise to follow the direction of the market trend when it comes to trading.
submitted by CITEXexchange to u/CITEXexchange [link] [comments]

Margin Isn't Dangerous & Why I'd Still Use It If I Had Less Than $25,000

Margin Isn't Dangerous & Why I'd Still Use It If I Had Less Than $25,000

Cash vs. Margin


TL;DR- Use Margin if you're trading securities and either above or below 25k. If you know how to size positions, it won't matter if you move $4,000 into a trade or $4,000,000. As long as you sized the position correctly. If you're limited to 3 trades, then take 3 PERFECT trades: https://imgur.com/a/SpPOERQ

I see lots of people discussing contrasting ideas although they attempt to justify using both. Here are some things I see said and written frequently from people that doesn't add up for me:

  • "Use a cash account to avoid PDT" - (Totally fine, in some cases such as certain options traders. Not if you're trading securities.)
  • "Risk 1% of your account" - (So if your account is at $25,500, I risk ~$255 and if I lose 2R I'm below PDT. Doesn't sound too great to me if I were to lose the first 2 straight trades.)
  • "Margin is a double-edged sword" - (It's only dangerous if you don't set hard stops or size your positions correctly.)
  • "Never take on a trade that is worth more than your account" - (I can agree if you were swing trading but in terms of IntraDay trading, this is hindering your ability to grow your account. If you're risking $100 on a trade that costs less than your account value.. then $25 on a trade because of your account value.. then you're adding unneeded variables. Remember: "Consistency.")


The Predictive Model I built lays out all valid trades within the report range as well as \"Perfect Trades\" that I consider \"Textbook\". The report range is between a 30 day range. Between 4-17-20 to 5-17-20. Total \"Perfect Trade\" count is 9 trades. Even if I were limited to 3 trades per week. I'd be able to trade them with less than 25k on margin. The stats reflect $100 risk I've set on a different tab. (The \"W\" is just a graphic I made for \"Winning\")

It doesn’t matter if you move $4,000, $40,000, or $4,000,000 into a position. As long as you’re risking the same. Your Trading Account's performance is based off of risk. Such as:
•Sharpe ratio
•RRR
•Number of R’s in 1 week/month/quarter. (Example: I made 7R this week. If my R is $100. I made $700)

If I were to go back to when I was below $25,000 some years ago. I'd still use a margin account while being limited to 3 trades per week. Here's why:

Formulas you have to know:
Position size formula = Risk ÷ Stop Size
Stop Size Formula = Entry - StopLoss

Example 1a:

Stock ABC,
Entry = $10.00
StopLoss = $9.90
StopSize = 10¢
Risk = $100
In Live Trading: $100 ÷ $0.10 = 1000 Shares
1,000 shares at $10.00 = $10,000 position

Example 1b:

Stock XYZ,
Entry = $385
StopLoss = $383.00
StopSize = $2.00
Risk = $100
In Live Trading: $100 ÷ $2.00 = 50 Shares
50 shares at $385 = $19,250 position.

*$10,000 CASH account: CANNOT trade Stock XYZ and must wait 3 days for his entire account to settle after trading Stock ABC. If it was a margin account, they'd still be able to take 2 more trades this week.
*$10,000 MARGIN account: CAN trade Stock XYZ and can trade both scenarios while still able to trade 1 more time in a 5 day rolling period.

Then the next point made is, "Just won't trade anything above $20".


Ok. great rebuttal, but why?

Let's remember this: StopSizes aren't always directly correlated to the price of a stock. YES you're more likely to have a wider StopSize on a higher priced stock and a tighter StopSize on a lower priced stock. But remember this: of slippage on 1,000 shares is 10% of his risk ($10)... It will be even more slippage if his stop loss market order is hit. Even a Sell-StopLimit order will have slippage within the amount you allow for when you enter a position.
Stock XYZ would have to be slipped 20¢ just to equate the amount of slippage on Stock ABC.Highly liquid and available stocks such as AAPL, AMD, NVDA etc don't have 20¢ spreads. Not even 10¢. Rarely 5¢. Most of the time. Just a couple cents. Of course there could be more right out of the open but the spread in my years of experience is tightened within 2 minutes of the open.
Yes, these small amounts in pennies do hold lots of merit if you're looking at having any longevity in this business, it WILL add up over the years.

Both trades have the same risk [in perfect world theory].

If both stop market orders were hit (StopLoss). Both traders would exit with a $100 loss on each. Although 1 trade required $10,000 in capital and the other trade required $19,250 in capital.
Use margin. If I had to go back to when I had less than $25,000 in my account, I'd still do it the same way I did it with margin. I highly suggest using margin even if you’re limited to 3 trades per week. I get asked all the time when I began trading. If you watched my last video, I showed my first ever deposit with Scottrade (Old brokerage that was bought out by TDA a few years ago) in 2015 although I don't consider that's when I started trading because I didn't treat it the way I do today.
I really consider myself starting as a trader in 2017 when I:
•Wrote a business plan
•Understood statistics
•How to research.
All this being said, slowly over time I noticed that I am taking less and less trades and increasing my risk size. Why?
EV: Expected Value.


- Margin has zero negative effect if you're sizing your positions the same every time. Margin allows you to take on more expensive positions that are showing your edge.

Bonus: Being limited to 3 trades a week isn't fun, I remember that feeling from years ago. Just remember to take 3 perfect trades a week. Sometimes "Perfect Trades" don't work out in your favor while some subpar situations hit target. Some weeks you might take your 3 "Perfect Trades" by Tuesday. Some weeks you might take only 1 "perfect trade". If you follow my watchlists on Twitter (Same handle as my Reddit), I keep my Day Trading Buying Power transparent. Not always is it growing perfectly linear. And not always am I posting every single day because sometimes, my edge isn't there. Just because the market is open doesn't mean you HAVE to trade.
My watchlists aren't littered with 15+ tickers. Rarely do they have more than 7. That may work for other traders, but for me, I demand quality. It's either there or it isn't. No reason to force a trade. I'd rather focus heavily on a few tickers rather than spread myself thin across multiple.
Trading isn't supposed to be exhilarating or an adrenaline rush. It can be boring. I said that in the post I wrote back in April.
Also if you make money, even if its just $20 in a month. Take that money out and buy something. Shrine it. Cherish it. You ripped that money out of WallStreet. Be proud of it. It takes a lot of courage to do this business. Realize that the P/L is real money. Sometimes even just buying a tank of gas or a book will help you realize that. Spend it from time to time. Get something out of your trading account. You may or not be trading for long, get something that is tangible to always remember the experience in case you don't last. Make it your trophy.

That's all I've got for right now. Maybe I'll make another post or 2 before the year ends. I hit my 1 year full-time mark in September.
Best wishes!
-CJT2013
submitted by CJT2013 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

My notes to Seth Klarman's 'Margin of Safety."

I was just alerted that my post from 7 years ago had a broken link.
https://rbcpa.com//wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Notes_To_Margin_of_Safety.pdf
I posted my entire notes, quite long, and I think the link would provide an easier view.
Notes To The Book “Margin Of Safety”
Author: Seth Klarman
1991
Prepared by: Ronald R. Redfield, CPA, PFS
According to www.wikipedia.com "Margin of Safety – Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor" is a name of a book written by Seth A. Klarman, a successful value investor and President of the Baupost Group, an investment firm in Boston. This book is no longer published and sometimes can be found on eBay for more than $1000 (some consider it a collectible item). These notes are hardly all encompassing. These are notes I would find helpful for me, as a money manager. I do not mention Klarman’s important premise of looking at investments as “fractional ownerships.” I don’t mention things like that in these notes, as I am already tuned into those concepts, and do not need a reminder. Hence a reader of these notes, should read the book on their own, and get their own information from it. I found this book at several libraries. One awsome library I went to was the New York Public Library for Science, Business and Industry. http://www.nypl.org/research/sibl/index.html
Throughout this paper you will see items in “quote marks.” The quotes exclusively represent direct quotes of Seth Klarman, from the book. As I read this book, and through completion, I felt fortunate that I have been following most of his philosophies for many years. I am not comparing myself to Klarman, not at all. How could I ever compare myself to the greats of Klarman, Buffett, Whitman etal?
What I did experience via this reading was a confirmation of my style and discipline. This book really put together and confirmed to me, so many of the philosophies and methods which I have been using for many years. These notes are a means for me to look back, and feel my roots every so often. At times in these notes, I have added sections which I have found appropriate in my workings.
Introduction
“This book alone will not turn anyone into a successful value investor.
Value investing requires a great deal of hard work, unusually strict discipline
and a long-term investment horizon.”
“This book is a blueprint that, if carefully followed, offers a good possibility
of investment successes with limited risk.”
Understand why things work. Memorizing formulas give the appearance of
competence. Klarman describes the book as one about “thinking about
investing.”
I interpret much of the introduction of the book, as to not actively buy and
sell investments, but to demonstrate an “ability to make long-term
investment decisions based on business fundamentals.” As I completed the
book, I realize that Klarman does not embrace the long term approach in the
same fashion I do. Yet, the key is to always determine if value still exists.
Value is factored in with tax costs and other costs.
Fight the crowd. I think what Klarman is saying is that it is warm and fuzzy
in the middle of crowds. You do not need to be warm and fuzzy with
investing.
Stay unemotional in business and investing!
Study the behavior of investors and speculators. Their actions “often
inadvertently result in the creation of opportunities for value investors.”
“The most beneficial time to be a value investor is when the market is
falling.” “Value investors invest with a margin of safety that protects from
large losses in declining markets.” I have only begun the book, but am
curious as to how any value investor could have stayed out of the way of
1973 –1974 bear market. Some would argue that Buffett exited the business
during this period. Yet, it is my understanding, and I could be wrong, that
Berkshire shares took a big drop in that period. Also, Buffett referred his
investors who were leaving the partnership to Sequoia Fund. Sequoia Fund
is a long term value investment mutual fund. They also had a horrendous
time during the 1973 –1974 massacre.
“Mark Twain said that there are two times in a man’s life when he should
not speculate: when he can’t afford it and when he can.”
“Investors in a stock expect to profit in at least one of three possible ways:
a. From free cash flow generated by the underlying business, which
will eventually be reflected in a higher share price or distributed as
dividends.
b. From an increase in the multiple that investors are willing to pay
for the underlying business as reflected in a higher share price.
c. Or by narrowing of the gap between share price and underlying
business value.”
“Speculators are obsessed with predicting – guessing the direction of
prices.”
“Value investors pay attention to financial reality in making their investment
decisions.”
He discusses what could happen if investors lost favor with liquid treasuries,
and if indeed they became illiquid. All investors could run for the door at
once.
“Investing is serious business, not entertainment.”
Understand the difference between an investment and a collectible. An
investment is one, which will eventually be able to produce cash flow.
“Successful investors tend to be unemotional, allowing the greed of others to
play into their hands. By having confidence in their own analysis and
judgment, they respond to market forces not with blind emotion but with
calculated reason.”
He discusses Mr. Market. He mentions when a price of a stock declines
with no apparent reason, most investors become concerned. They worry that
there is information out there, which they are not privy to. Heck, I am going
through this now with a position that is thinly traded, and sometimes I think
I am the only purchaser out there. He describes how the investor begins to
second-guess him or herself. He mentions it is easy to panic and just sell.
He goes onto to write, “Yet, if the security were truly a bargain when it was
purchased, the rationale course of action would be to take advantage of this
even better bargain and buy more.”
Don’t confuse the company’s performance in the stock market with the real
performance of the underlying business.
“Think for yourself and don’t let the market direct you.”
“Security prices sometimes fluctuate, not based on any apparent changes in
reality, but on changes in investor perception.” This could be helpful in my
research of the 1973 – 1974 period. As I study that era, it looks as though
price earnings ratios contracted for no real apparent reason. Many think that
the price of oil and interest rates sky rocketed, but according to my research,
that was not until later in the decade.
He discusses the good and bad of Wall Street. He identifies how Wall Street
is slanted towards the bullish side. The reason being that bullishness
generates fees via offerings, 401k’s, floating of debt, etc. etc. One of the
sections is titled, “Financial Market Innovations Are Good for Wall Street
But Bad for Clients.” As I read this, I was wondering if the “pay option
mortgages,” which are being offered by many lenders, are one of these
products. These negative amortization and adjustable mortgages have been
around for 25 years. Yet, they have not proliferated the marketplace in the
past as much as they have the last several years. Lenders such as
Countrywide, GoldenWest Financial and First Federal Financial have been
using these riskier mortgages as a typical type of loan in 2005 and 2006.
“Investors must recognize that the early success of an innovation is not a
reliable indicator of its ultimate merit.” “Although the benefits are apparent
from the start, it takes longer for the problems to surface.” “What appears
to be new and improved today may prove to be flawed or even fallacious
tomorrow.”
“The eventual market saturation of Wall Street fads coincides with a cooling
of investor enthusiasm. When a particular sector is in vogue, success is a
self-fulfilling prophecy. As buyers bid up prices, they help to justify their
original enthusiasm. When prices peak and start to decline, however, the
downward movement can also become self-fulfilling. Not only do buyers
stop buying, they actually become sellers, aggravating the oversupply
problem that marks the peak of every fad.”
He later writes about investment fads. “All market fads come to an end.”
He clarifies, “It is only fair to note that it is not easy to distinguish an
investment fad from a real business trend.”
"You probably would not choose to dine at a restaurant whose chef always
ate elsewhere. You should be no more satisfied with a money manager who
does not eat his or her own cooking." Just to reiterate, I do eat my own
cooking, and I don’t “dine out” when it comes to investing.
“An investor’s time is required both to monitor the current holdings and to
investigate potential new investments. Since most money managers are
always looking for additional assets to manage, however, they spend
considerable time meeting with prospective clients in addition to
handholding current clientele. It is ironic that all clients, Present and
potential, would probably be financially better off if none of them spent time
with money managers, but a free-rider problem exists in that each client
feels justified in requesting periodic meetings. No single meeting places an
intolerable burden on a money manager’s time; cumulatively, however, the
hours diverted to marketing can take a toll on investment results.”
“The largest thrift owners of junk bonds – Columbia Savings and Loan,
CenTrust Savings, Imperial Savings and Loan, Lincoln Savings and Loan
and Far West Financial, were either insolvent of on the brink of insolvency
by the end of 1990. Most of these institutions had grown rapidly through
brokered deposits for the sole purpose of investing the proceeds in junk
bonds and other risky assets.”
I personally suspect that the same will be said of the aggressive mortgage
lenders of 2005 – 2006. I have looked back at my files of 1st quarter 1980
Value Line for a few of these companies mentioned above. Here are some
notes on one of the companies I found.
Far West Financial: Rated C++ for financial strength. In 1979 it was
selling for 5/% of book value. “The yield-cost spread is under pressure.”
“Lending is likely to decline sharply in 1980.” “Far West’s earnings are
likely to sink 30 – 35% in 1980. Reasons: The deteriorating margin between
yield on earning assets and the cost of money, less loan fee income…” Keep
in mind that the stock price rose around 400% from 1974 – 1979. From
1968 – 1972 the P/E ratio was in a range from 11 –17. From 1973 through
1979 the P/E ratio was in a range from 3.3 – 8.1. It would be interesting for
me to look at the 1990 – 1992 Value Lines of the same companies.
A Value Investment Philosophy:
“One of the recurrent themes of this book is that the future is unpredictable.”
“The river may overflow its banks only once or twice in a century, but you
still buy flood insurance.” “Investors must be prepared for any eventuality.”
He describes that an investor looking for a specific return over time, does
not make that goal achievable. “Targeting investment returns leads investors
to focus on potential upside rather on downside risk.” “Rather than targeting
a desired rate of return, even an eminently reasonable one, investors should
target risk.”
Value Investing: The Importance of a Margin of Safety”
“Value investing is the discipline of buying securities at a significant
discount from their current underlying values and holding them until more of
their value is realized. The element of the bargain is the key to the process.”
“The greatest challenge for value investors is maintaining the required
discipline. Being a value investor usually means standing apart from the
crowd, challenging conventional wisdom, and opposing the prevailing
investment winds. It can be a lonely undertaking. A value investor may
experience poor, even horrendous, performance compared with that of other
investors or the market as a whole during prolonged periods of market
overvaluation.”
“Value investors are students of the game; they learn from every pitch, those
at which they swing and those they let pass by. They are not influenced by
the way others are performing; they are motivated only by their own results.
He discusses that value investors have “infinite patience.”
He discusses that value investors will not invest in companies that they don’t
understand. He discusses how value investors typically will not own
technology companies for this reason. Warren Buffett has stated this as the
reason as to why he does not own any technology companies. As a side
note, I do believe that at some point, Berkshire will take a sizable position in
Microsoft ($24.31 5/1/06). Klarman mentions that many also shun
commercial banks and property and casualty companies. The reasons being
that they have unanalyzable assets. Keep in mind that Berkshire Hathaway
(Warren Buffett is the majority shareholder) is basically in the property and
casualty business.
“For a value investor a pitch must not only be in the strike zone, it must be
in his “sweet spot.”” “Above all, investors must always avoid swinging at
bad pitches.”
He goes onto discuss that determining value is not a science. A competent
investor cannot have all the facts, know all the answers or all the questions,
and most investments are dependent on outcomes that cannot be foreseen.
“Value investing can work very well in an inflationary environment.” I
wonder if the inverse is true? Are we in a soon to be deflationary
environment for real estate? I think so. Sure enough he discusses
deflationary environments. He explains how deflation is “a dagger to the
heart of value investing.” He explains that it is hardly fun for any type of
investor. He explains that value investors should worry about declining
business values. Yet, here is what he said value investors should do in this
environment.”
a. “Investors can not predict when business values will rise or fall,
valuation should always be performed conservatively, giving
considerable weight to worst-case liquidation value and other
methods.”
b. Investors fearing deflation could demand a greater discount than
usual. “Probably let more pitches go by.”
c. Deflation should give greater importance to the investment time
frame.
“A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices
sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or
extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world.”
“The problem with intangible assets, I believe, is that they hold little or no
margin of safety.” He describes how tangible assets might have alternate
uses, hence providing a margin of safety. He does explain how Buffett
recognizes the value of intangibles.
“Investors should pay attention not only to whether but also to why current
holdings are undervalued.” He explains to remember the reason you bought
the investment, and if that no longer holds true, then sell the investment.
He tells the reader to look for catalysts, which might assist in adding value.
He looks for companies with good management and insider ownership
(“personal financial stake in the business.”)
“Diversify your holdings and hedge when it is financially attractive to do
so.”
He explains that adversity and uncertainty create opportunity.
“A market downturn is the true test of an investment philosophy.”
“Value investing is, in effect, predicated on the proposition the efficientmarket (EMT) hypothesis is frequently wrong.” He explains that market
pricing is more efficient with larger capitalization companies.
“Beware of Value Pretenders”
This means, watch out for the misuse of value investing. He explains that
these pretenders came about via the successes of Michael Price, Buffett,
Max Heine and the Sequoia Fund. He labels these people as value
chameleons, and states that they are failing to achieve a margin of safety for
their clients. He claims these investors suffered substantial losses in 1990. I
find this section difficult. For one, the book was published in 1991,
certainly not a long enough time to comment on investments of 1990. Also,
he doesn’t mention the broad based declines of 1973 – 1974
“Value investing is simple to understand but difficult to implement.” “The
hard part is discipline, patience and judgment.” Wait for the fat pitch.
“At the Root of a Value Investment Philosophy”
Value investors look for absolute performance, not relative performance.
They look more long term. They are willing to hold cash reserves when no
bargains are available. Value investors focus on risk as well as returns. He
discusses that the greater the risk, does not necessarily mean the greater the
return. He feels that risk erodes returns because of losses. Price creates
return, not risk.
He defines risk as, “ both the probability and the potential of loss.” An
investor can counteract risk by diversification, hedging (when appropriate)
and invest with a margin of safety.
He eloquently discusses the following, “The trick of successful investors is
to sell when they want to, not when they have to. Investors who may need
to sell should not own marketable securities other than U.S. Treasury Bills.”
Warning, warning , warning. Eye opener next. “The most important
determinant of whether investors will incur opportunity cost is whether or
not part of their portfolios are held in cash.” “Maintaining moderate cash
balances or owning securities that periodically throw off appreciable cash is
likely to reduce the number of foregone opportunities.”
“The primary goal of value investors is to avoid losing money.” He
describes the 3 elements of a value-investment strategy.
a. A bottoms up approach, searching via fundamental analysis.
b. Absolute performance strategy.
c. Pay attention to risk.
“The Art of Business Valuation”
He explains that NPV and IRR are great tools for summarizing data. He
explains they can be misleading unless the flows are contractually
determined, and when all payments are received when due. He talks about
the adage, “garbage in, garbage out.” As a side note, Milford Blonsky, CPA
during the 1970’s through the mid 1990’s, taught me that with frequency.
Klarman believes that investments have a range of values, and not a precise
value.
He discusses 3 tools of business valuation”
a. Net Present Value (NPV) analysis. “NPV is the discounted
value of all future cash flows that the business is expected to generate.
He describes the importance of avoiding market comparables, for
obvious reasons. Use this method when earnings are reasonably
predictable and a discount rate can be chosen. This is often a guessing
game. Things can go wrong, things change. Even management can’t
predict changes. “An irresolvable contradiction exists: to perform
present value analysis, you must predict the future, yet the future is
reliably predictable.” He explains that this should be dealt with using
“conservatism.”
He discusses choosing a discount rate. He states, “A discount rate is, in
effect, the rate of interest that would make man investor indifferent between
present and future dollars.” He mentions that there is no single correct
discount rate and there is no precise way to choose one. He explains that
some investors use a generic round number, like 10%. He claims it is an
easy round number, but not necessarily the best choice. He emphasizes to be
conservative when choosing the discount rate. The less the risk of the
investment, the less the time frame, the less the discount rate should be. He
explains, “Depending on the timing and magnitude of the cash flows, even
modest differences in the discount rate can have a considerable impact on
the present-value calculation.” Of course discount rates are changed by
changing interest rates. He discusses how investing when interest rates are
unusually low, could cause inflated share prices, and that one must be
careful in making long term investments.
Klarman discusses using various DCF and NPV scenarios. He also
emphasizes one should discount earnings or cash flows as opposed to
dividends, since not all companies pay dividends. Of course, one wants to
understand the quality of the earnings and their reoccurring nature.
b. Analyze liquidation value. You need to understand what would
be an orderly liquidation versus fire sale liquidation. Klarman
quotes Graham’s “net net working capital.” Net working capital =
Current Assets – Current Liabilities. Net Net working capital =
Net Working Capital – all long-term liabilities. Keep in mind that
operating losses deplete working capital. Klarman reminds us to
look at off balance sheet liabilities, such as under-funded pension
plans.
c. Estimate the price of the company, or its subsidiaries considered
separately, as it would trade on the stock market. This method is
less reliable than the other 2 and should be used as a yardstick.
Private Market Value (PMV) does give an analyzer some rules of
thumb. When using PMV one needs to understand the garbage in,
garbage out concept, as well as the use of relevant and
conservative assumptions. One has to be wary of certain periods
of excesses when using this method. Look at historic multiples. I
am reminded of some recent research I have been working on in
regards to 1973 – 1974. Utility companies were selling for over
18X earnings, when they typically sold for much lower multiples.
I believe this was the case in 1929 as well. Klarman mentioned
television companies, which historically sold for 10X pre-tax cash
flow, but in the late 80’s were selling for 13 to 15X pre-tax cash
flow. “Investors relying on conservative historical standards of
valuation in determining PMV will benefit from a true margin of
safety, while others’ margin of safety blows with the financial
winds.” He suggests when you use PMV to determine what you
would pay for the business, not what others would pay to own
them. “At most, PMV should be used as one of several inputs in
the valuation process and not the exclusive final arbiter of value.”
I think that Klarman mentions that all tools should be used, and not to give
to great a value to any one tool or procedure of valuation. NPV has the
greatest weight in typical situations. Yet an analyst has to know when to
apply each tool, and when a specific tool might not be relevant. He
mentions that a conglomerate when being valued might have a variety of
methods for the different business components. He suggests, “Err on the
side of conservatism.”
Klarman quotes Soros from “The Alchemy of Finance.” “Fundamental
analysis seeks to establish how underlying values are reflected in stock
prices, whereas the theory of reflexivity shows how stock prices can
influence underlying values. (Pg. 51 1987 ed)”
Klarman mentions that the theory of reflexivity makes the point that a stock
price can significantly influence the value of a business. Klarman states,
“Investors must not lose sight of this possibility.” I am reminded of Enron
when reading this. Their business fell apart because they no longer were
able to use their stock price as currency. Soon covenants were violated
because of falling stock prices. Mix that difficult ingredient with fraud, and
you have a fine recipe for disaster. How many companies today are reliant
on continual liquidity from the equity or bond markets?
He discussed a valuation from 1991 of Esco. He indicated that the “working
capital / Sales ratio” was worthwhile to look at. He included a discount rate
of 12% for first 5 years of valuation, followed by 15%. He mentioned that
these higher rates indicated “uncertainty” in themselves. He stressed that
investors should consider other valuation scenarios and not just NPV. This
was all outlined above, but it was cool to see in a real time approach. He
discussed that PMV was not useful, as there were no comparables. He
indicated that a spin-off approach was helpful, as Esco previously
purchased a competitor (Hazeltine). He mentioned that the Hazeltine
acquisition, although much smaller than Esco, showed Esco to be severely
undervalued. He indicated that liquidation value would not be useful,
because defense companies could not be easily liquidated. He did look at a
gradual liquidation, as ongoing contracts could be run to completion. He did
use Stock market valuation as a guide. He noticed that the company was
selling for a small fraction of tangible assets. He called this a very low level,
considering positive cash flow and a viable company. He couldn’t identify
the exact worth of Esco, but he could identify that it was selling for well
below intrinsic value. He looked at all worst-case scenarios, and still
couldn’t pierce the current market price. He claimed the price was based on
“disaster.” He also noticed insider purchasing in the open market.
Klarman discussed that management could manipulate earnings, and that
one had to be wary of using earnings in valuation. He mentioned that
managements are well aware that investors price companies based on growth
rates. He hinted that one needs to look at quality of earnings, and the need
to interpret cash costs versus non-cash costs. Basically, indicating a
normalization of earnings process. “…It is important to remember that the
numbers are not an end in themselves. Rather they are a means to
understanding what is really happening in a company.”
He discusses that book value is not very useful as a valuation yardstick.
Book Value provides limited information (like earnings) to investors. It
should only be considered as one component of thorough analysis.
“The Challenge of Finding Attractive Investments”
If you see a company selling for what you consider to be a very inexpensive
price, ask yourself, “What is wrong with this company?” This reminds me
of Charles Munger, who advises investors to “invert, always invert.”
Klarman mentions, “A bargain should be inspected and re-inspected for
possible flaws.” He indicates possible flaws might be the existence of
contingent liabilities or maybe the introduction of a superior product by a
competitor. Interestingly enough, in the late 90’s, we noticed that Lucent
products were being replaced by those of the competition. We can’t blame
the entire loss of wealth on Lucent inferiority at the time, as the entire sector
followed Lucent’s wipeout at a later date. There were both industry and
company specific issues that were haunting Lucent at the time.
Klarman advises to look for industry constraints in creating investment
opportunities. He cited that institutions frowned upon arbitrage plays, and
that certain companies within an industry were punished without merit. He
mentions that many institutions cannot hold low-priced securities, and that in
itself can create opportunity. He also cites year-end tax selling, which
creates opportunities for value investors.
“Value investing by its very nature is contrarian.” He explains how value
investors are typically initially wrong, since they go against the crowd, and
the crowd is the one pushing up the stock price. He discusses how the value
investor for a period of time (and sometimes a long time at that) will likely
suffer “paper losses.” He hinted that contrarian positions could work well in
over-valued situations, where the crowd has bid up prices. Profits can be
claimed from short positions.
He claims that no matter how extensive your research, no matter how
diligent and smart you are, the diligence has shortcomings. For one, “some
information is always elusive,” hence you need to live with incomplete
information. Knowing all the facts does not always lead to profit. He cites
the “80/20 rule.” This means that the first 80% of the research is gathered in
the first 20% of the time spent finding that research. He discusses that
business information is not always made available, and it is also
“perishable.” “High uncertainty is frequently accompanied by low prices.
By the time uncertainty is resolved, prices are likely to have risen.” He hints
that you can make decisions quicker, without all of the information, and take
advantage of the time others are looking and delving into the same
information. This extra time can cause the late and thorough investor to lose
their margin of safety.
Klarman discusses to watch what the insiders are doing. “The motivation of
company management can be a very important force in determining the
outcome of an investment.” He concludes the chapter with this quote:
“Investment research is the process of reducing large piles of information to
manageable ones, distilling the investment wheat from the chaff. There is,
needless to say, a lot of chaff and very little wheat. The research process
itself, like the factory of a manufacturing company, produces no profits. The
profits materialize later, often much later, when the undervaluation identified
during the research process is first translated into portfolio decisions and
then eventually recognized by the market.” He goes onto discuss that the
research today, will provide the fruits of tomorrow. He explains that an
investment program will not succeed if “high quality research is not
performed on a continuing basis.”
Klarman discussed investing in complex securities. His theme being, if the
security is hard to understand and time consuming, many of the analysts and
institutions will shy away from it. He identifies this as “fertile ground” for
research.
Spin-offs
The goal of a spin-off, according to Klarman is for the former parent
company to create greater value as a whole by spinning off businesses that
aren’t necessarily in their strategic plans. Klarman finds opportunity
because of the complexity (see above) and the time lag of data flow. I don’t
know in 2006 if this is still the case, but Klarman mentions there is a 2 to 3
month lag of data flow to the computer databases. I have owned several
spin-offs and have ultimately sold them, as they were too small for the pie,
or just not followed by my research. As I think back, I think quite a few of
these spin-offs did fairly well. One example would be Freescale. As I look
at the Freescale chart, it looks like it went from around 18 two years ago, to
around 33 today. Ahh, this topic alone, enabled the book to provide
potential value to my future net worth.
Bankrupt Companies
Look for Net Operating Losses as a potential benefit. He describes the
beauty of investing in bankrupt companies is the complexity of the analysis.
This complexity, as described often in his book, leads to potential
opportunity, as many investors shy away from the complex analysis.
Pending a bankruptcy, costs get leaner and more focused, cash builds up and
compounds with interest. This cash buildup can simplify the process of
reorganization, because all agree on the value of cash.
Michael Price and his 3 stages of Bankruptcy:
a. Immediately after bankruptcy. This is the most uncertain stage,
but also one of the greatest opportunities. Liabilities are not
evident, there is turmoil, financial statements are late or
unavailable and the underlying business may not have stabilized.
The debtor’s securities are also in disarray. This is accompanied
by forced selling at any price.
b. The second stage is the negotiation of a reorganization plan.
Klarman mentions that by this time, many analysts have pored
over the financials and the company. Much more is known about
the debtor, uncertainty is not as acute, but certainly still exists.
Prices will reflect this available information.
c. The third stage is the finalization of the reorganization and the
debtor’s emergence from bankruptcy. He claims this stage takes 3
months to a year. Klarman mentions that this last stage most
closely resembles a risk-arbitrage investment.
“When properly implemented, troubled-company investing may entail less
risk than traditional investing, yet offer significantly higher returns. When
badly done, the results of investing can be disastrous…” He emphasizes that
the market is illiquid and traders take advantage of unsophisticated investors.
“Caution is the order of the day for the ordinary investor.”
Klarman mentions to use the same investment valuation techniques you
would use for a solvent company. He suggests that the analyst look to see if
the companies are intentionally “uglifying” their financial statements. He
cites the example of expensing rather than capitalizing certain expenses.
The analyst needs to look at off-balance sheet arrangements. He cites
examples as real estate and over-funded pension plans.
Klarman discusses the investor should typically shy away from investing in
common stock of bankrupt companies. He mentions there is an occasional
home run, but he states, “as a rule investors should avoid the common stock
of bankrupt entities at virtually any price; the risks are great and the returns
are very uncertain.” He discusses one ploy of buying the bonds and shorting
the stock. He used an example of Bank Of New England (BNE). He
mentioned that BNE bonds were selling at 10 from 70, whereas the stockstill carried a large market capitalization.
He concludes the bankruptcy section by stressing that this type of investing
is sophisticated and highly specialized. The competition in finding these
securities is savvy, experienced and hard-nosed. When this area becomes
popular, be extra careful, as most of the money made is based on the
uneconomic behavior of investors.
Portfolio Management and Trading
“All investors must come to terms with the relentless continuity of the
investment process.”
He mentions the need for liquidity in investments. A portfolio manager can
buy a stock and subsequently find out he or she made an error, or that a
competitor has a stronger product. With that said, the portfolio manager can
typically sell that situation. If the investment was in an annuity or limited
partnership, the liquidity is pierced and the change of strategy cannot be
economically deployed. “When investors do not demand compensation for
bearing illiquidity, they almost always come to regret it.”
He discusses that liquidity is not of great importance in managing a longterm oriented portfolio. Most portfolios should contain a balance of
liquidity, which can quickly be turned into cash. Unexpected liquidity needs
do occur. The longer the duration of illiquidity, should demand a greater
form of compensation for the liquidity sacrifice. The cost of illiquidity
should be very high. “Liquidity can be illusory.” Watch out for situations
that are liquid one day, and illiquid the next. He claims this can happen in
market panics.
“Investing is in some ways an endless process of managing liquidity.”
When a portfolio is in cash only, the risk of loss is non-existent. The same
goes for the lack of gain when fully invested in cash. Klarman mentions,
“The tension between earning a high return, on the one hand, and avoiding
risk, on the other, can run high. This is a difficult task.
“Portfolio management requires paying attention to the portfolio as a whole,
taking into account diversification, possible hedging strategies, and the
management of portfolio cash flow.” He discusses that portfolio
management is a further means of risk reduction for investors.
He suggests that, as few as ten to fifteen different holdings should be suffice
for diversification. He does mention, “My view is that an investor is better
off knowing a lot about a few investments than knowing only a little about
each of a great many holdings.” He mentions that diversification is
“potentially a Trojan horse.” “Diversification, after all, is not how many
different things you own, but how different the things you do own are in the
risks they entail.”
In regards to trading Klarman stated, “The single most crucial factor in
trading is the developing the appropriate reaction to price fluctuations.
Investors must learn to resist fear, the tendency to panic, when prices are
falling, and greed, the tendency to become overly enthusiastic when prices
are rising.
“Leverage is neither necessary nor appropriate for most investors.”
How do you evaluate a money manager?
a. “Personal interviews are absolutely essential.”
b. “Do they eat their own cooking?” He feels this is the most
important question of an advisor. When an advisor does not invest
in his or her own preaching, Klarman refers to it as “eating out.”
You want the advisor to act in a “parallel” fashion to his or her
clients.
c. “Are all clients treated equally?”
d. Examine the investor’s track record during different periods of
varying amounts of assets managed. How has the advisor
performed as his or her assets have grown? If assets are shrinking,
try to examine the reason.
e. Examine the investment philosophy. Does the advisor worry
about absolute returns, about what can go wrong, or is the advisor
worried about relative performance?
f. Does advisor have constraining rules? Examples of this could be
the requirement to always be fully invested.
g. Thoroughly analyze the past investment performance. How long a
track record is there? Was it achieved in one or more market
cycles?
h. How did the clients do in falling markets?
i. Have the returns been steady over time, or have they been
volatile?
j. Was the track record from a steady pace, or just a couple of
successes?
k. Is the manager still using the same philosophy that he or she has
always used?
l. Has the manager produced good long-term results despite having
excess cash and cash equivalents in the portfolio allocation? This
could indicate a low risk approach.
m. Were the investments in the underlying portfolio themselves
particularly risky, such as shares of highly leveraged companies?
Conversely, did the portfolio manager reduce risk via hedging,
diversification and senior securities?
n. Make sure you are personally compatible with the advisor. Make
sure you are comfortable with the investment approach.
o. After you hire the manager, monitor them on an ongoing basis.
The issues that were addressed prior to hiring should be used after
hiring.
He finishes the book with these words. “I recommend that you adopt a
value-investment philosophy and either find an investment professional with
a record of value-investment success or commit the requisite time and
attention to investing on your own.”
Respectfully submitted,
Ronald R. Redfield CPA, PFS
May 3, 2006
submitted by rbco to SecurityAnalysis [link] [comments]

What are the risks of the gold T+D market and how to prevent them?

What are the risks of the gold T+D market and how to prevent them?
Gold T+D is also a more popular investment and wealth management product nowadays. Traders also need to consider market risks when investing in gold T+D. So, what are the risks in the gold T+D market, and how should they be prevented?

Generally speaking, gold T+D market risks have a relatively large scale and a wide range of areas, but also have the characteristics of amplification, complexity, and preventiveness. The risks in gold T+D investment are mainly recurring. Jitter, margin-based leveraged trading principles, and poor market systems.

https://preview.redd.it/emlbbyy2b6e51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8b7d7d565ce24fd52c0199b24ef49f8f0ebccf61
Specifically, the types of gold T+D trading risks are relatively complex and changeable. From the viewpoint of whether various risks are controllable, they can be divided into uncontrollable risks and controllable risks.

If distinguished from each investment link, it can be divided into agency risk, forced liquidation risk, liquidity risk, and transaction delivery risk.

Click http://t2.mademoney.net, add your teacher's whatsapp: +918098239109, help you open an account, and teach you one-on-one how to make money online.

To distinguish from the main body generated by the risk itself, it can be divided into transaction center risk, customer risk and government risk. If it is distinguished from the financial risk faced by traders, it can be divided into credit risk and operation risk. And the risks of legal treaties.

In this regard, traders who want to prevent these risks can operate according to the following statement:

Investors can set the risk control ratio of gold T+D trading to one to three, that is, traders need to control the ratio of profit and loss. For example, traders use various news to determine that the market will rise, and then Made a first-hand sale.

https://preview.redd.it/7ne7vfh3b6e51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3c1383bcdc7545f128b6cfc97e0e29f5b3dbb660
But the fact is just the opposite. Instead, the market has dropped by two dollars. Traders can sell the contract they bought and continue to do a reverse short operation. This can also make a profit. Just remember that it is enough and not because you have won some. Tiny profits start greed.

For traders who have just joined the gold T+D trading market, especially those who have never been exposed to gold T+D trading, they must consciously strengthen their learning and start investing slowly from small orders.

At the same time, if you want to make money in profit, traders must first cultivate correct investment concepts, such as learning to respect the gold T+D trading market, and adapting to its changes all the time. You must know that investing is not just simple Gambling.
submitted by Xboxend to u/Xboxend [link] [comments]

The best DApps, which will likely lead the next phase.

The best DApps, which will likely lead the next phase.
Author: Gamals Ahmed, Business Ambassador

https://images.app.goo.gl/2c9rF5ZqfbjBzb2x6
One of the key themes in 2020 is the rise of decentralized financing (DeFi), a new type of financing that works on decentralized protocols and without the need for financial intermediaries. Lately, the number of DeFi apps has increased significantly, but many have not been seen or heard by many of us.
In this Article I will be building a list of the best DApps, which will likely lead the next phase. DeFi apps can be categorized into different subcategories such as:
  • Finance
  • Exchange
  • Insurance
  • Gambling
  • Social
And much more…
Note: Some of the projects in the report categorized into more than one section in the types of dApps.
The rise of DeFi Bitcoin (BTC) was the first implementation of decentralized financing. It enabled individuals to conduct financial transactions with other individuals without the need for a financial intermediary in the digital age. Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies were the first wave of DeFi. The second wave of DeFi was enabled by Ethereum blockchain which added another layer of programmability to the blockchain. Now, at the beginning of 2020, individuals and companies can borrow, lend, trade, invest, exchange and store crypto assets in an unreliable way. In 2020, we can expect the amount of money held in lending protocols to increase as long-term investors diversify into interest-bearing offers, especially if the market fails to rise towards the 2017/18 highs. On the other hand, active crypto traders are becoming increasingly interested in decentralized trading offers. The increasing level of money security offered by decentralized trading platforms should not only see an increase in trading of DApp users, but also in the number of non-custodial trading and exchange platforms available.
Lending: DeFi allows anyone to obtain or provide a loan without third party approval. The vast majority of lending products use common cryptocurrencies such as Ether ($ ETH) to secure outstanding loans through over-collateral. Thanks to the emergence of smart contracts, maintenance margins and interest rates can be programmed directly into a borrowing agreement with liquidations occurring automatically if the account balance falls below the specified collateral. The relative benefit gained from supplying different cryptocurrencies is different for the asset and the underlying platform used.

Compound

Source: https://images.app.goo.gl/SGttwo4JWadHTxYe7
Compound is a money market protocol on the Ethereum blockchain — allowing individuals, institutions, and applications to frictionlessly earn interest on or borrow cryptographic assets without having to negotiate with a counterparty or peer. Each market has a dynamic borrowing interest rate, which floats in real-time as market conditions adjust. Compound focuses on allowing borrowers to take out loans and lenders to provide loans by locking their crypto assets into the protocol. The interest rates paid and received by borrowers and lenders are determined by the supply and demand of each crypto asset. Interest rates are generated with every block mined. Loans can be paid back and locked assets can be withdrawn at any time. While DeFi may seem overwhelming complex to the average individual, Compound prides itself on building a product that is digestible for users of all backgrounds. Compound is a protocol on the Ethereum blockchain that establishes money markets, which are pools of assets with algorithmically derived interest rates, based on the supply and demand for the asset. Suppliers (and borrowers) of an asset interact directly with the protocol, earning (and paying) a floating interest rate, without having to negotiate terms such as maturity, interest rate, or collateral with a peer or counterparty. Built on top of that principle is cTokens, Compound’s native token that allows users to earn interest on their money while also being able to transfer, trade, and use that money in other applications. OVERVIEW ABOUT COMPOUND PROTOCOL Compound Finance is a San Francisco based company, which raised an $8.2 M seed round in May of 2018, and a $25M Series A round in November of 2019. Financing rounds were lead by industry giants including but not limited to Andressen Horowitz, Polychain Capital, Coinbase Ventures and Bain Capital Ventures, Compound Finance is a sector-leading lending protocol enabling users to lend and borrow popular cryptocurrencies like Ether, Dai and Tether. Compound leverages audited smart contracts responsible for the storage, management, and facilitation of all pooled capital. Users connect to Compound through web3 wallets like MetaMask with all positions being tracked using interest-earning tokens called cTokens.
Compound recently introduced a governance token — COMP. It holds no economic benefits and is solely used to vote on protocol proposals. The distribution of COMP has absolutely exceeded expectations on all fronts. Compound is now the leading DeFi protocol both in terms of Total Value Locked and in terms of COMP’s marketcap relative to other DeFi tokens. COMP was recently listed on Coinbase — the leading US cryptocurrency exchange and has seen strong interest from dozens of other exchanges including futures platforms like FTX. Compound’s new governance system is well underway, with close to close to 10 proposals being passed since it’s launch. What’s unique about COMP’s governance model is that tokenholders can delegate their tokens to an address of their choice. Only those who hold more than 1% of the supply can make new proposals. Besides earning interest on your crypto assets, which is a straightforward process of depositing crypto assets on the platform and receiving cTokens, you can also borrow crypto on Compound. Borrowing crypto assets has the added step of making sure the value of your collateral stays above a minimum amount relative to your loan. Compound and DeFi more broadly wants to help people have more access and control over the money they earn and save. While the project has had its criticisms, the long-term goal of Compound has always been to become fully decentralized over time. The Compound team currently manages the protocol, but they plan to eventually transfer all authority over to a Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) governed by the Compound community. For following the project:
Website: https://compound.finance/
Medium: https://medium.com/compound-finance
Github: https://github.com/compound-finance/compound-protocol
DEXs: Decentralized exchanges allow users to switch their assets without the need to transfer custody of basic collateral. DEXs aim to provide unreliable and interoperable trading across a wide range of trading pairs.

Kyber


Source: https://images.app.goo.gl/sFCUhrgVwvs9ZJEP6
Kyber is a blockchain-based liquidity protocol that allows decentralized token swaps to be integrated into any application, enabling value exchange to be performed seamlessly between all parties in the ecosystem. Using this protocol, developers can build innovative payment flows and applications, including instant token swap services, ERC20 payments, and financial DApps helping to build a world where any token is usable anywhere. Kyber’s ecosystem is growing rapidly. In about a month, the team got an investment and partnered with some of the best projects. ParaFi Capital, a blockchain-focused investment company, has made a strategic purchase of KNC codes. The company will assist the DeFi project by qualifying new clients and improving professional market manufacture. The project’s recent partnerships seem impressive. Includes Chainlink, Chicago DeFi Alliance, and Digifox Wallet.
An important DeFi integration was also made with MakerDAO. KNC can now be used as a DAI warranty. The project has reached a milestone worth $ 1 billion of total turnover since its inception. More importantly, volume on an annual basis is moving and accelerating from $ 70 million in the first year to more than $ 600 million in 2020. Recently five million KNC (about 2.4% of total supply) were burned, improving Kyber’s supply and demand ratio. In July, the Kyber network witnessed a Katalyst upgrade that will improve governance, signature, delegation and structural improvements.
When Katalyst hits the main network, users will be able to either vote directly or delegate tokens to shareholder groups led by either companies like Stake Capital or community members. The KNC used to vote is burned, and in turn, voters get ETH as a reward. This setting creates a model for staking an uncommon contraction for the Kyber network. KyberDAO will facilitate chain governance, like many other projects based on Ethereum. An interesting partnership with xToken has been set up to help less-participating users stake out via xKNC. xKNC automatically makes specific voting decisions, making it easier for users to join and enjoy the return. The pool was created to draw BTC to Curve. Users who do this are eligible for returns in SNX, REN, CRV, and BAL. The more BTC lock on Synthetix, the more liquid it becomes, and the more attractive it is for traders. The project plans to continue expanding its products and move towards more decentralization. Synthetix futures are scheduled to appear on the exchange within a few months. The initial leverage is expected to be 10 to 20 times. The team aims to neglect its central oracle and replace it with one from Chainlink during the second stage of the migration. This will significantly increase the decentralization and flexibility of the platform. For following the project:
Website: https://kyber.network/
Medium: https://blog.kyber.network/
Github: https://github.com/kybernetwork
Derivatives: In traditional finance, a derivative represents a contract where the value is derived from an agreement based on the performance of an underlying asset. There are four main types of derivative contracts: futures, forwards, options, and swaps.

Synthetix

Source: https://images.app.goo.gl/1UsxQ7a3M5veb5sC7
Synthetix is a decentralized artificial asset issuance protocol based on Ethereum. These synthetic assets are guaranteed by the Synthetix Network (SNX) code which enables, upon conclusion of the contract, the release of Synths. This combined collateral model allows users to make transfers between Compound directly with the smart contract, avoiding the need for counterparties. This mechanism solves DEX’s liquidity and sliding issues. Synthetix currently supports artificial banknotes, cryptocurrencies (long and short) and commodities.
SNX holders are encouraged to share their tokens as part of their proportionate percentage of activity fees are paid on Synthetix.Exchange, based on their contribution to the network. It contains three DApp applications for trading, signature and analysis: Exchange (Synths at no cost). Mintr (SNX lock for tuning and fee collection). Synthetix Network Token is a great platform in the ethereum ecosystem that leverages blockchain technology to help bridge the gap between the often mysterious cryptocurrency world and the more realistic world of traditional assets. That is, on the Synthetix network, there are Synths, which are artificial assets that provide exposure to assets such as gold, bitcoin, US dollars, and various stocks such as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). The whole idea of these artificial assets is to create shared assets where users benefit from exposure to the assets, without actually owning the asset.
It is a very unique idea, and a promising project in the ethereum landscape. Since it helps bridge the gap between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets, it creates a level of familiarity and value that is often lost in the assets of other digital currencies. This will make Synthetix take his seat in the next stage. On June 15, BitGo announced support for SNX and on June 19, Synthetix announced via blog post that Synthetix, Curve, and Ren “collaborated to launch a new stimulus group to provide liquidity for premium bitcoin on Ethereum”, and said the goal was to “create the most liquid Ethereum — the BTC-based suite available to provide traders with the lowest slippage” In trade between sBTC, renBTC and WBTC. “ For following the project:
Website: https://www.synthetix.io/
Blog: https://blog.synthetix.io/
Github: https://github.com/Synthetixio
Wallets: Wallets are a crucial gateway for interacting with DeFi products. While they commonly vary in their underlying product and asset support, across the board we’ve seen drastic improvements in usability and access thanks to the growing DeFi narrative.

Argent


Source: https://images.app.goo.gl/mYPaWecFfwRqnUTx6
It is the startup for consumer game-changing financial technology, which makes decentralized web access safer and easier. The company has built a smart and easy-to-use mobile wallet for Ethereum, which gives users the ability to easily retrieve their encrypted currencies on the go.
Argent Benefits:
  • Only you control your assets
  • Explore DeFi with one click
  • Easily retrieve and close your wallet
  • The wallet pays gas for in-app features, for example Compound and Maker
The Argent crypto wallet simplifies the process without sacrificing security. It is a type of wallet that allows you to keep cryptographic keys while keeping things simple. The Argent wallet is secured by something called the Guardians. If you lose your phone (and your Argent wallet), just contact your guardians to confirm your identity. Then you can get all your money back on another device. It is a simple and intuitive method that can make cryptocurrency manipulation easier to do without experience. Argent is focused on the Ethereum blockchain and plans to support everything Ethereum has to offer. Of course, you can send and receive ETH. The startup wants to hide the complexity on this front, as it covers transaction fees (gas) for you and gives you usernames. This way, you don’t have to set a transaction fee to make sure it expires. Insurance cooperative Nexus Mutual and Argent Portfolio Provider are planning to offer a range of smart and insurance contracts to keep Argent user money safe from hackers. First, the smart contract is designed to prevent thieves from draining the wallet by temporarily freezing transfers above the daily spending limit for addresses not listed in the user’s whitelist. The user has 24 hours to cancel the frozen transfer — very similar to the bank’s intervention and prevent fraud on the card or similar suspicious activities in the account. By contrast, the default coding state is closer to criticism: once it disappears, it disappears. “We are thinking not only of crypto users but also new users — so the ultimate goal is to duplicate what they get from their bank,” said Itamar Lisuis, one of the founders of Argent. For following the project:
Website: https://www.argent.xyz/
Medium: https://medium.com/argenthq
Github: https://github.com/argentlabs/
Asset Management: With such a vast amount of DeFi products, it’s crucial that tools are in place to better track and manage assets. In line with the permissionless nature of the wider DeFi ecosystem, these assets management projects provide users with the ability to seamlessly track their balances across various tokens, products and services in an intuitive fashion.

InstaDapp

Source: https://images.app.goo.gl/VP9Xwih6VQ1Zmv2E9
It is a smart wallet for DeFi that allows users to seamlessly manage multiple DeFi applications to maximize returns across different protocols in a fraction of the time. With InstaDapp, users can take advantage of industry-leading projects like Compound, MakerDAO and Uniswap in one easy-to-use portal. Instadapp currently supports dapps MakerDAO and Compound DeFi, allowing users to add collateral, borrow, redeem and redeem their collateral on each dapp, as well as refinance debt positions between the two. In addition to its ease of use, InstaDapp also adds additional benefits and use cases for supported projects that are not already supported. The project focuses on making DeFi easier for non-technical users by maintaining a decentralized spirit while stripping many of the confusing terms that many products bring with them.
InstaDapp has launched a one-click and one-transaction solution that allows users to quadruple the COMP Codes they can earn from using quadruple borrowing and lending. A good timing feature for sure, but this kind of simplification is exactly why Instadapp was created. Its goal is to create a simple interface into multiple DeFi applications running on the Ethereum Blockchain and then automate complex interactions in a way that enables users to maximize their profits while reducing transactions and Ethereum gas charges. To use Instadapp you will need Ethereum wallet and you will also have to create what is called Instadapp smart wallet in which token you want to use. For following the project:
Website: https://instadapp.io/
Medium: https://medium.com/instadapp
Github: https://github.com/instadapp
Savings: There are a select few DeFi projects which offer unique and novel ways to earn a return by saving cryptocurrencies. This differs from lending as there is no borrower on the other side of the table.

Dharma

Source: https://images.app.goo.gl/4JhfFNxPfE9oxoqV6
Dharma is an easy-to-use layer above the compound protocol. It introduces new and non-technical users to transaction encryption and allows them to easily borrow or lend in DeFi markets and earn interest in stable currencies. You can start by simply using a debit card. Funds are kept in a non-portfolio portfolio, which constantly earns interest on all of your deposited assets. The value of Dharma’s DeFi lending experience is:
  • Easy entry.
  • Simple wallet.
  • High protection.
  • Depositing and withdrawing banknotes.
Dharma, the prominent DeFi cryptobank bank, has made it extremely easy to bring any Twitter user into the crypto world. Dharma users can send money from the Dharma app by searching for any Twitter handle, setting the required amount, and clicking on one button. The Twitter Dharma Bot account can send a unique notification with a link to download the Dharma mobile app. Senders are encouraged to retweet the notification to ensure that the receiver does not lose it.
To raise money, recipients simply download the Dharma app. After creating a Dharma account, users connect their Twitter account to receive access to the money sent. They can choose to transfer money to US dollars and withdraw to a bank account, or leave DAI in a Dharma account where it will earn interest like all Dharma deposits. The submitted DAI will gain interest even before the receiving user requests it while waiting for the claim. In her ad, Dharma demonstrated a number of ways in which the new social payments feature can be used, including tips for your favorite Twitter personalities, accepting payments for goods or services in a very clear way, charitable donations across borders or transfer payments. The Dharma app is available for both Android and iOS. Dharma and Compound
Dharma generates interest by DAI signing the Compound Protocol. Dharma also appeared in the news recently after the release of a specification outlining a Layer 2 expansion solution allowing the platform to expand to handle current transaction volume 10x, ensuring users can transfer their money quickly even in times of heavy congestion on the Ethereum network. Dharma is developing its “core” and “underwriting” contracts within the company. Underwriting contracts are open source and non-custodian, while each loan contract is closed source. This means that the receiving address contains nodes that interact with a script on a central Dharma server.For following the project:
Website: https://dharma.io/
Medium: https://medium.com/dharma-blog
Github: https://github.com/dharmaprotocol
Insurance: Decentralized insurance protocols allow users to take out policies on smart contracts, funds, or any other cryptocurrencies through pooled funds and reserves.

Nexus Mutual


Source: https://images.app.goo.gl/b7HwB8ifvTXwFhrh6
Nexus Mutual uses blockchain technology to return mutual values to insurance by creating consistent incentives with the smart contract symbol on the Ethereum blockchain. It is built on the Ethchaum blockchain and uses a modular system to aggregate smart Ethereum nodes, allowing to upgrade the system’s logical components without affecting other components.
The way Nexus works is members of the mutual association by purchasing NXM codes that allow them to participate in the decentralized independent organization (DAO). All decisions are voted on by members, who are motivated to pay real claims. It sees plenty of opportunities in a gradual transition of Ethereum to Eth 2.0, which is expected to start later this year. Eth 2.0 moves the network from the power-hungry Proof-of-Consensus (PoW) algorithm to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), a way to sign cryptocurrency in order to keep the network afloat. Having a steady return on signature from the Ether (ETH) can be somewhat compared to the way in which insurance companies invest in the real world the premiums they collect.
By setting a strong set of conditions for Nexus Mutual, anyone will be able to bring in and acquire a new form of risk for mutual coverage — assuming that members are willing to share NXM. With this design, the mutual discretion will be able to expand into much broader fields beyond smart contracts. In addition to defining multi-layered term agreements, Nexus Mutual also has some other advantages needed to achieve this visualization. For following the project:
Website: https://nexusmutual.io/
Medium: https://medium.com/nexus-mutual
Github: https://github.com/NexusMutual
Disclaimer: This report is a study of what is happening in the market at the present time and we do not support or promote any of the mentioned projects or cryptocurrencies. Any descriptions of the jobs and services provided are for information only. We are not responsible for any loss of funds or other damages caused.
Resources:
https://compound.finance/
https://kyber.network/
https://instadapp.io/
https://www.synthetix.io/
https://www.argent.xyz/
https://dharma.io/
https://nexusmutual.io/
submitted by CoinEx_Institution to u/CoinEx_Institution [link] [comments]

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