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DDDD - Cycles and Human History

DDDD - Cycles and Human History
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-Driven DD), now that my short term thesis of a 274-292 channel has now been invalidated because of some vaccine company fraudulently telling everyone they've cured COVID-19 to pump their stock before a secondary offering, I'll be digging deeper into my longer term thesis that I've been talked about for weeks now. I've previously wrote about this thesis from a perspective of economic history and the perspective of liquidity and finance. This time, lets look at it from a perspective of human and American history, and cycles that can be in them.
EDIT - This DD is meant to be read as a last part of a trilogy from these two previous posts with the actual data and quantitative content. Without that context, this post will basically seem like trying to use obscure theories to magically predict the future because of some prophecy. This is meant to be a theoretical / qualitative explanation of the of what was talked about in those previous posts, as well as connecting them to actions and thesises of well-known investors like Ray Dalio and Warren Buffett, who are saying very similar things. Don't bother reading this if you haven't read the first two parts of this trilogy.
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. This time, let’s take a broader look at cycles and patterns that often present itself throughout human history, and connect that to the economy and the stock market. Much of the content for this piece is taken from the Strauss–Howe generational theory, Ray Dalio’s thesis about our place in the long-term debt cycle, and Warren Buffet’s take on the same topic when he spent a few hours talking about it in the most recent Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting.
The Fourth Turning
The general idea of Strauss–Howe generational theory, or the “fourth turning” is that American history tends to repeat certain trends within every “saeculum”, or human lifespan - approximately 80 years. This is how long it typically takes for the certain historical events to start disappearing from human memory, allowing similar events to happen again. I’m not entirely sure why this theory focuses on American history specifically, and can be applied to human histories across civilizations, although until recently those cycles may not have been synchronized with each other. The theory states that history tend to occur in cycles of four “turnings”:
High - A “golden age” of a civilization. This is when there is strong unity within members of the society, with strong confidence in institutions like the government and big corporations, and weak individualism. As a collective mind, the civilization is able to work together to achieve big goals.
Awakening - People get tired of conformity, trust in institutions weaken, and there’s a strong desire for self awareness, spirituality, or authenticity. This is a time of experimentation, activism, and rebellion.
Unraveling - Confidence in institutions such as governments and large corporations are at its weakest, and individualism is at its strongest. Society fragments to polarizing groups, and public action by governments is barely able to achieve the smallest goals.
Crisis - This is when the fabric of society and existing institutions are destroyed in response to a perceived existential threat to the civilization itself. Economic distress is rampant as the economy sees defaulting sovereign debt, high unemployment, deflation or hyperinflation, or civil unrest. The crisis eventually becomes a unifying force for the previously fractured society, and the civilization comes together to solve the crisis. Civil authority and governments become trusted again, and self-sacrifices inspire people to work together as a society over self interest.
Let’s look at how this cycle played out over the past few centuries in the US.

1701-1723 High The establishment of the first British Empire. The thirteen British colonies in the Americas were all by now well established and beginning to prosper. The Glorious Revolution in Great Britain has just ended, and the result is the supremacy of the people, through Parliament, over the Crown, and a new set of rights that apply to all Englishmen.
1724-1741 Awakening The First Great Awakening, or the Evangelical Revival. People become much more devoted to their religion and a desire to convert others, including native Americans and slaves.
1742-1766 Unravelling Seven Years War (French and Indian War in the US). It was considered to be the world’s first major conflict, with initial rivalry between the European great powers spilling over to other continents. From an American perspective, this would seem as an unnecessary war caused by a rivalry between two powers far far away, causing unnecessary hardship to the settlers in America. After the war, Britain wanted to recoup some of their losses from all the money spent fighting in North America, and created new taxes, leading to the Boston Tea Party. As a result, Britain then imposed the “Intolerable Acts” to punish the colony of Massachusetts. Throughout this time, trust in the Crown within the colonies started to disappear.
1767-1791 Crisis The American Revolution - All trust and allegiance to the Crown is destroyed and replaced with new ideals.
1792-1821 High After Victory in the American Revolution, there’s a new sense of unity and pride in the newly founded nation. New institutions were created for the new country, and there was a sense of optimism, even during the War of 1812. The period after that war, and leading up to the 1824 election, was called the Era of Good Feelings, to reflect the sense of national unity and purpose within the US
1822-1842 Awakening The Second Great Awakening, similar to the first one.
1844-1860 Unraveling Sectionalism within the US - this period saw the rise in the North vs. South divide over slave states and non-slave states, and tensions revolving around it
1860-1865 Crisis American Civil War
1865-1886 High Gilded Age - Rapid economic growth in the United States through industrialization. Creation of new institutions in the form of industrial titans like Standard Oil.
1886-1908 Awakening The Third Great Awakening, similar to the first two. Also, the progressive era, which saw an activist movement to address some of problems that come with monopolies like Standard Oil, urbanization, and corruption.
1908-1929 Unravelling This period saw WWI, Prohibition, and the Roaring Twenties. During this time, there was an increasing social conflict between liberal urban and conservative rural areas, specifically about morals and what should and shouldn’t be legal (eg. Scopes trial), the rise of the KKK, and is a hallmark of consumerism, individualism, and greed.
1929-1946 Crisis The Great Depression and WWII. The New Deal destroyed many existing institutions, and replaced them with new ones. The aftermath of WWII created new global institutions, in the form of the UN, and started the American world order.
1946-1964 High The Golden Age of Capitalism / post-war economic boom
1964-1984 Awakening During this time, we saw two different types of awakening. The counterculture movement of the 1960s saw activism against the Vietnam war and the Civil Rights movement, as well as an increase in spirituality and self-awareness, which is typically associated with the youth during this period (i.e. “hippies”). During the same time, there was another religious revival - The Fourth Great Awakening.
1984-2008 Unravelling This period saw an increase of the polarization on cultural issues in America, specifically with abortion, gun control, drugs, and gay rights, between conservatives and liberals, starting with the election of Ronald Reagan. The polarization was also very heavily influenced by geography, with liberals tending to live on the coasts and big cities, and conservatives everywhere else. The polarization made it increasingly difficult for congress to enact any big changes.
2008 to somewhere between 2020 and 2030 Crisis This period started with the financial crisis, as well as the aftermath of 9/11 and the War on Terror. Add on the pandemic, and the fallout from it, and we’d likely see another mass destruction of old institutions and creation of new ones.
2020-2030 to 2040-2050 High ???
2040-2050 to 2070-2080 Awakening A Fifth Great Awakening?

The Changing Hands of World Powers
There’s also another interesting theory in the field of international relations that’s interesting and probably applicable here - the Long Cycle Theory. It basically states that international world orders and the title of the most powerful nation, is challenged every 70 to 100 years - the approximate maximum lifespan of an average human life, leading to some sort of global conflict and potentially a change in the world order as a result.
Cycles in World Leadership
The United States has survived as the World Leader for the 20th century from the threat of the Soviet Union challenging the world order. This time, it’s becoming increasingly clear that China has become a new challenger to the American world order.
Long Term Economic Cycles
Ray Dalio is famous for this being a central part of his economic thesis - about long term debt cycles, and the fact that we’re near the end of one. The summary of this idea is that the economy goes through short term and long term debt cycles. Short term debt cycles are the regular occurring business cycles you usually see once every decade, usually caused by overspending. The long term debt cycle, however, is when an entire economy becomes overleveraged, and it becomes harder and harder for a central bank to stimulate the economy. A hallmark of this happening is when interest rates hit near 0%, and they are forced to perform quantitative easing to stimulate the economy; the last time the economy’s seen anything similar to this was the Great Depression - this is called a liquidity trap. The period following this liquidity trap was an economic deleveraging, typically associated with civil unrest, revolutions, wars, and asset prices plummeting. The US economy has been seeing this since 2008 and has never been able to successfully fully deleverage the economy yet.
Another long term economic cycle theory that’s somewhat popular is the Kondratiev wave, although this field of economics is not generally accepted by most economists. The idea is that the economy goes through long-term economic cycles, lasting between 45 to 60 years, of periods of rapid economic and stock market growth fueled by technological innovations, followed by a period of stagnation.
Kondratiev Waves
Currently, we’re late in the wave created by the introduction of Information Technology, which started in the late 1970s. I’ve previously talked about this, but basically we’re near the end of this cycle as well.
So, it sounds like we’re near the end of many cycles; the generational cycle of the Strauss–Howe generational theory, the long term debt cycle, the Kondratiev Wave cycle, and possibly the beginning of the end of the Long Cycle in international relations as China begins to contend with the United States for global influence. In all of these cycles, the conclusion is clear - chaos, economic hardship, geopolitical tensions and crises. Let’s take a closer look at the stock market last time all of these cycles ended - the 1930s.
Retail Investors in the 1920s
There’s not that much solid quantitative data about retail investors and their impact on the stock market; only qualitative and anecdotal data. However, one thing is clear - retail investors pumped the market in 1929 beyond what fundamentals warranted, despite evidence of a weakening economy due to stagnating consumer spending and distress by farmers due to overproduction of wheat, and soon, the Dust Bowl. Why were they pumping stocks so much? Because they falsely believed that stocks only go up. I’ll put some excerpts from this Forbes and this Investopedia article I found talking about this to better illustrate the extent and nature of this pump.
Still there was one big anomaly in the decade preceding, the 1920s, and it remains instructive today. The American people bought stocks in unprecedented fashion. Stocks on the installment plan, stocks via investment clubs, stocks bought with capital rather than income, stocks on margin. It was a big new fad. Nothing like the participation in the market that the nation experienced in the 1920s can be found in previous eras of history.
The permanent denuding of the dollar, the reality of which first became clear in the 1920s, forced savers to find some instrument that would pay them back in the old way, in money that held its value. The choice was made to capture, via stocks, the forthcoming profits of businesses. Here would be money commensurate to what was needed to buy things in the future.
Until the peak in 1929, stock prices went up by nearly 10 times. In the 1920s, investing in the stock market became somewhat of a national pastime for those who could afford it and even those who could not—the latter borrowed from stockbrokers to finance their investments.
People were not buying stocks on fundamentals; they were buying in anticipation of rising share prices. Rising share prices simply brought more people into the markets, convinced that it was easy money. In mid-1929, the economy stumbled due to excess production in many industries, creating an oversupply. Essentially, companies were able to acquire money cheaply due to high share prices and invest in their own production with the requisite optimism.
This all sounds pretty familiar to what's going on in the stock market today; as I previously mentioned, retail investors are pouring money in at unprecedented levels. Why is this happening now, about 90 years since the last time every retail investor started pouring money in? It's the same as the reasoning behind most of the other cycles I've mentioned above - the vast majority of people who previously experienced this and would have been alive to remember the 1920s have passed away by now. With an absence of people alive to have this mistake in living memory, humanity is bound to repeat the same mistakes, ignoring the warnings from our ancestors who are no longer with us, and repeat the cycle.
There's one pair of billionaires who are old enough to remember the aftermath of the the stock market pump that led towards the 1929 crash - Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Warren would have been born right after the crash and Charlie would have been 5. Both of them entered the finance industry while the stock market was still recovering from it, and still below the 1929 highs. For anyone who watched him talk at the annual shareholder meeting, he spent a few hours talking about a similar story - one of the highs and lows of American history, with a bullish perspective. He wouldn't have spent hours talking about the 1929 crash and the fact that it took multiple decades to recover if this wasn't relevant. This is supported by the fact that he bought virtually nothing since the crash, and has been gradually selling a large portion of this publicly traded equities - first his airlines and now banks. Although he believes that we'll eventually recover (i.e. "Never bet against American", in the long run), it's clear from his actions that he sees parallels of this from the stock market he grew up in the shadow of in his childhood and doesn't want to bet for America in the short term.
EDIT - Someone pointed out this article by Ray Dalio: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio/ which basically talks about something very similar. I actually didn't even know about the existence of this article and actually wrote this before this got published, but looks like we both came to the same conclusion, and this is a shorter version of Ray Dalio's article. Recommend everyone check this out if they want a more in-depth version of this DD with more data and this this post as a tldr of it.
Weekly SPY Watch Updates
This section has absolutely nothing to do with anything I talked about above, but people apparently care about trades I'm making and what my magic markers say will happen in the stock market this week, so I'll have this section of this post dedicated to that and my updates.
I've since sold, with the exception of some VIX calls, all my short positions on SPY, and currently doing some individual plays - currently holding GSX puts and short (sold) HTZ calls, among some other smaller plays. With respect to SPY, it looks like we'll be in a new channel - this time 293-300; not sure how long we'll be staying in this channel for, but I'll be playing it by either selling short-dated iron condors or buying calls / puts when it reaches one end of the channel. While magic markers are telling me we're going to be bullish medium term, and go through 300 to new ATHs, meaning I should buy calls, I don't want to go against my own fundamentals in principle by the fact that the stock market is clearly already overvalued.
5/25 3PM - /ES at 299, might open near the top of the channel. Will need to see how we open to decide if I'm going to enter a position on SPY again.
5/25 10PM - Looks we're going to be trading on the upper half the of channel on Tuesday, with a trading range of 300-297. Might look to pick up some short-dated puts to play the channel if technicals look right on open.
5/26 Noon - Got a small amount of 5/29 ATM puts to play the channel. We opened right above the 200MA so I'm relying on this being a fake out, and not very confident about this specific play.
5/26 3:50PM - Looks like 300-302 range is acting like a resistance, heading back down in the 293-300 channel. Bearish intraday (5M, 15M) MACD => EOD dump and open lower in the channel tomorrow. Looking closely at what's going on with China.
- Wednesday (tomorrow): House votes on sanctions related to Chinese concentration camps of Uyghurs
- Thursday: China votes, and very likely passes, amendment to Basic Law in HK for "national security"
- End of Week: Trump promised that he will have a policy response, likely sanctions, for the change in HK's basic law, in addition to possibly revoking HK's special status
5/27 Market Open - Opened at the top of the resistance again, but quickly reversing. Might play out similar to yesterday
5/27 11AM - Going to wait till SPY hits 297 again and then roll my 5/29 puts I got yesterday to continue playing the channel down to 293
5/27 3:50PM - Turns out it was a EOD pump instead of dump. Oversold on 5M and 15M, so probably need to consolidate again tomorrow with a trading range of 297-302 again. Not so sure about this one because there's a solid chance this just breaks through that resistance and goes towards new ATHs. Entered into more 5/29 puts and going to hold overnight, sell if we still have positive momentum going in to open tomorrow. If we don't break 300 again tomorrow, I'm going to assume we're going to new ATHs and buy some IWM calls, hedged with QQQ puts.
5/27 6:30PM - My plan for tomorrow - see if we're actually in a 293-302 channel. There's going to be alot of uncertainty coming from China this week. If we're still above 302 by 10AM I'll probably transition towards bull positions. Most tech / strong companies are priced near their ATHs, and all the momentum coming into SPY is now coming from all the stocks that were really hit the past few months. Looking at CCL, JPM, and BA, all of whom are going towards a 1W MACD crossover
5/27 11PM - Still above this channel. Again, if we open above 302 and don't quickly reverse then clearly 300 wasn't that much of a resistance and we're headed to ATHs - next stop is 313, followed by 340. To my bears out there - the 1W MACD has already crossed over, meaning we're not going to see a rug pull any time soon, with the exception of some dramatic event happening in China. I'm not taking any medium-term bearish positions and currently just trying to play this channel, although the bullish momentum is stronger than I expected and not consolidating that much on 300 (yet). Watch out for August - that's when most medical experts agree a second lockdown is going to become evident and this bubble will pop; I still stand by my long term thesis. However, in the short term, don't trade against the trend and profit off the bubble.
5/28 9:40AM - I was wrong again. Going to sell those puts when SPY hits 302 at a small loss. We're headed to ATH
5/28 11:40AM - Overbought on 15M and 1H RSI, should see more consolidation today, and hopefully hit my 302 target to sell later today.
5/28 1PM - Stopped out of my small SPY puts, rolled that out into bullish positions on JPM, BA, and CCL. Will probably be doing SPY plays for a while, since all the technicals are pointing to a bullish rally, but only way for that to continue is for beaten down stocks like the ones mentioned, and found in IWM, to skyrocket the next few weeks. Also probably going to stop updating this thread as much.
5/28 5PM - 1H MACD is about to cross, and SPY got near 302 today, We've clearly broken the previous resistance area of 300-302, alot earlier than I was expecting; today was just a day for consolidation because RSI was overbought, now it has room to grow. MACD also acts as a resistance and typically will bounce back instead of cross if there's still bullish sentiment. I believe this is the case now, and we will also see SPY bounce up from the previous 300-302 region of resistance with it becoming support; the next level of resistance will be 313 on SPY, which is where we'll be headed soon. Haven't been holding any medium-term short positions, and am currently net long on financials and transports, which will very likely rally disproportionally if SPY continues to go up. Very well aware that this is a bubble, but I called the top wrong and trading against the trend will just lose you money.
5/28 7PM - Tomorrow will be an interesting day, Trump announced a news conference, with an unspecified time, where he will talk about actions he will do to China, potentially sanctions. There was a very small dip in the market on this news but nothing much else has happened yet. Depending on what the actions are, could be a red day tomorrow and break 302. I'll play this out intraday if we don't open low tomorrow
5/29 11AM - SPY is re-testing the 300-302 area, this time as support. Everything really depends on whatever Trump announces today regarding retaliation about China. Hard to say what can happen. If it's something extreme, like sanctions or tariffs, this could lead to another crash. Anything else would mean this SPY immediately bounces back from this support area.
5/29 1PM - Trump conference scheduled at 2PM. Will watch stock market reaction and trade with sentiment from it. If retaliation is bad enough to drop below 300, could be the rug pull all the bears have been waiting for.
5/29 2PM - Picked up some 302-300 debit spreads coming into the news conference, planning on holding this for an hour and selling by EOD
5/29 3PM - Sold puts during the speech and flipped to 304-310 calls. Looks like this wasn't enough to break through support. Going to hold these overnight, momentum looks to be turning bullish now that there's no longer any uncertainty about China, and actions are unlikely to provoke a Chinese retaliation.
5/29 4PM - Sold my short-dated calls. Coming into the weekend, it looks like next week will continue to be bullish, with 1D MACD convergence continuing, as well as the lack of any resistance until 313.
Week of Jun 1 - Jun 5 - Looking at SPY hitting 213 by end of week
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Of Nite and Dei [Chapter 12]


---------------------------------Table of Contents-------------------------------------
Chapter 1 l Chapter 2 l Chapter 3 l Chapter 4 l Chapter 5 l Chapter 6 l Chapter 7 (NSFW) l Chapter 8
Chapter 9 l Chapter 10 l Chapter 11
Yuki’s mouth was agape as she looked at the document sitting at her feet.
“I’m awaiting an explanation,” Dr. Terasuki said, narrowing her eyes at Yuki as she crossed her arms over her chest.
“I didn’t write it,” Yuki stammered.
“Obviously,” Dr. Terasuki scowled, “is this some sort of sick joke?” Dr. Terasuki approached the book.
Yuki snatched it up off the ground, closing it, “Listen, I don’t know how much of it you’ve read but-”
All of it!” Dr. Terasuki shouted, her mouth making a loud snapping noise as it shut tight in anger.
Yuki took a deep breath and sat down on her bed, looking down at the book.
“There is a portion of that book that seems to imply that, not only do we Nite Dragons eat Dei Angels,” Dr. Terasuki’s eyes narrowed, “but also that we indulge in cannibalism?!”
Yuki gripped the book with white knuckles as she twisted it in her lap, pursing her lips as she tried to think of some excuse. Finally, after a few moments, Yuki realized she had no other option but, to tell the truth, “This book is all I, or anyone on Dei, is told of Nite.”
Dr. Terasuki was silent, but strangely Yuki could sense her anger rapidly subsiding.
“All we are told is that Nite is a dangerous place and that there are monsters on the surface,” Yuki looked up from the book, concern on her face, “and to an extent, that’s right.”
Dr. Terasuki was silent as she looked down her snout at Yuki.
“But I’ve learned that the Nite Dragons are not one of those monsters,” Yuki explained, lifting the book up, “this book lied, I know that now, but I didn’t know that before I landed.”
For the first time Dr. Terasuki’s gaze softened, and she gently took the book from Yuki’s hands, “I believe I owe you an apology, then.”
“What?” Yuki asked, her eyes wide in shock.
“I suppose, if I were you,” Dr. Terasuki explained as she sifted through the book, “I would have run from me as well,” Dr. Terasuki gave Yuki a sidelong glance from the book. “I thought you were a complete moron, running from a hospital after being rescued.”
“Excuse-” Yuki began to protest before being cut off.
“But, if all I had to go on about an alien planet was this book? I’d have run too,” Dr. Terasuki shook her head, “this is going to sway the Proposition 453 and 454 votes, that’s for certain.”
“I’m sorry, Propositions?” Yuki’s brow furrowed in confusion.
Dr. Terasuki nodded, “Proposition 453 is to increase the payload of the most recent shuttle delivering trade goods to Dei, and Prop 454 is whether or not to bother with extending the program after it’s expiration, come the end of the quarter.”
“Wait, there’s a shuttle going from Nite to Dei on the regular?” Yuki asked, shocked.
“You were unaware of that?” Dr. Terasuki questioned, putting the booklet under her arm, “are you aware of any shuttle service between Nite and Dei?”
Yuki shook her head, “what do they transport?”
“Mostly fruits and vegetables, in return Dei provides us with some rare metals and such that are difficult to mine due to the local fauna,” Dr. Terasuki explained, “While it’s a nice gesture, the materials are not impossible to mine on Nite.”
Yuki took a moment to consider something, “Wait, you mean I can just hop on a ship and go back to my home planet?” Yuki frowned. Yuki thought: I should be happy, I can see my son Geoffery again, and Jax. She groaned at that last point. Oh Guardian, Jax…
“That was the original plan,” Dr. Terasuki said, “but you’ve complicated that rather well, haven’t you?”
Yuki turned away from Dr. Terasuki.
“You’ll have a few months to make your decision,” Dr. Terasuki explained.
Yuki gave a nod.
“For the time being, I’d suggest you sleep on it,” Dr. Terasuki was about to leave the room before Yuki stalled her.
“Wait!” Yuki shouted.
“What?” Dr. Terasuki snapped.
“Who are you going to tell about the book?” Yuki asked.
“Everyone, of course,” Dr. Terasuki explained.
“Wait, how would you do that?” Yuki asked, surprised.
“The news,” Dr. Terasuki stated, “I’d call the head of the news outlet and advise of my finding, they would send a reporter.”
Yuki gasped, “Please, you can’t!”
Dr. Terasuki turned to Yuki, curious, “why shouldn’t I? If no one on Dei is aware of Nite, then why should I hide that fact from my people?”
“Because if that happens then…” Yuki winced, looking to her feet, “...then I’ll be a pariah.”
“We won’t be blaming you for the failings of your people, Yuki,” Dr. Terasuki advised.
“But if everyone knew, they might,” Yuki looked up to Dr. Terasuki, “and Serren would…”
Dr. Terasuki heaved a sigh, looking at the book, “...problem is I already informed them that I’ve found something of interest from Dei.”
Yuki’s eyes went wide, “Please, Doctor, think of Serren!” she begged.
“I’ll see you tomorrow, Yuki,” Dr. Terasuk said, an indifferent look on her face as she shut the door, walking out of the room and towards her office.
Once there, Dr. Terasuki placed the book on her desk and spotted a flashing light on her phone. She pressed it, listening to a recorded message.
“Hello Doctor, my name is Hazzel Maher, I understand you had some information about Dei? I’ve also heard a rumor you have an interesting patient? Needless to say, I put two and two together and I’d love to meet you and your patient, assuming she’s feeling better? Drop me a line when you can,” the message ended.
Dr. Terasuki looked at the book, her expression still stone. After a moment she reached into the top drawer of her desk, producing a small key. She approached her large filing cabinet, unlocked a heavy drawer. There she found Yuki’s medical records and she promptly placed the book into the file. She deposited the file folder back in place in the drawer and locked it.
Dr. Terasuki then picked up the phone, dialing a number, “Yes, Mr. Maher? Doctor Kattara Terasuki.”
“Oh, Miss Terasuki!” Hazzel’s voice answered.
“Doctor,” Dr. Terasuki hissed.
“Oh, sorry Doctor, of course!” Hazzel cleared his throat, “I assume this is a follow-up to my call-”
“Tomorrow morning, you will have ten minutes, you may not speak with the patient, do you understand?” Dr. Terasuki ordered.
“Yes, perfectly fine!” Hazzel announced on the phone, “Thank you for your cooperation!”
Dr. Terasuki hung up the phone and took a deep breath, “I am trusting you, Yuki.”

The next day Serren was heading into the hospital to visit Yuki.
Upon entering the hospital, however, Serren felt something was wrong. He could feel an ache in his back and he ran to Yuki’s room in earnest.
When he arrived, he found Yuki was not there! Frantic, he looked at her chart, seeing she was to be in physical therapy for the next few hours.
He dashed down the hallways, zig-zagging between patients and doctors alike, “excuse me, sorry!” he shouted as he made his way towards physical therapy.
When he got to Physical therapy, he called out, “Yuki?!”
“Serren?!” Yuki’s pained voice called out, “help!”
Serren rushed into the physical therapy room. It was a large room with a number of weights, stress bands, and exercise equipment, as well as a set of TVs in each corner.
When Serren found where Yuki’s voice was coming from, he couldn’t help but laugh.
Yuki’s wings were fully extended and her face was covered in sweat.
A large Nite with green scales and black stripes shook his head behind Yuki, giving Serren a comforting grin, as he helped Yuki spread her wings fully.
“They’re torturing me!” Yuki bemoaned.
Serren shook his head, “They’re just training your atrophied wing muscles.”
Yuki narrowed her eyes on Serren, “You’re with them! I knew it!”
Serren laughed.
“This is cruel and unusual!” Yuki protested as the green Nite finally let Yuki’s wings rest.
“You’re a big hatchling,” the green Nite said, laughing at Yuki.
“Haha, Tenn,” Yuki stuck her tongue out at him.
Tenn, the green Nite, walked passed Serren, “She can take a 15-minute break.”
Serren smiled, walking over to Yuki and hugging her tightly.
“Ahhh!” Yuki cried out in pain, “still tender, still tender!”
“What’s tender?” Serren asked, smiling.
Everything,” Yuki pouted, “I demand a chair, and water and a kiss.”
Serren started with the kiss and took her hand, leading her to the corner, “I’ll get you something to drink.”
Yuki groaned, flexing her wings, feeling a painful tightness in her wing’s limbs as she tried to move them.
Serren came to her with some water, “Here you go, love.”
Yuki nodded, drinking the offered water, “Thanks.”
“It will be worth it when you can fly again,” Serren smiled wide.
“I haven’t flown since I was a kid,” Yuki smiled up to Serren, giving him the empty cup. “It’s going to be so strange.”
“I’ll teach you,” Serren beamed, “Don’t worry.”
“And I’ll get you into flying shape!” Tenn announced as he approached the two, “Well, shall we get on with it?” he smiled wickedly to Yuki.
“Huh?” Yuki gasped, concerned, hoping for a longer reprieve from the training.
“Looks like you need to finish your physical therapy,” Serren grinned, “And then we will head home.”
“You mean my room?” Yuki asked.
Serren smiled, “no,” he laughed, “Home.”

Serren carried Yuki through the air, flying from the hospital over several large buildings, eventually making his way to a smaller building with several stories.
There Serren landed on the third large balcony from ground level, “be it ever so humble,” he smiled at Yuki as he walked to the door and produced a card.
Yuki looked around, spotting the sliding glass door and gave a laugh, “oh, right, why have the front door be inside when almost everyone flies?”
Serren nodded, the glass door beeping, and sliding opened, “come in.”
Yuki walked in, exhausted from her physical therapy, and spotted a couch, “Oh, Thank Guardian,” she approached it, spotting a coffee table in front, and a TV mounted to the wall facing it.
Yuki considered living here for the rest of her life, it was not entirely dissimilar from her apartment on Dei.
“I’ll start making some dinner,” Serren beamed as he walked off into the kitchen, “make yourself comfortable!”
Yuki nodded, turning her attention to the coffee table, examining the knick-knacks on it.
There she spotted a picture of Murrika standing next to Allia, alongside Serren and another male Nite she hadn’t seen before.
She focused on Allia, examining her face and scales closely. While she had seen Allia in Serren’s vision, it was clearer to her now looking at this photograph: Allia reminded her of someone.
Yuki sat on the couch, picture in hand. After studying it for some time, the TV remote caught her eye. She picked it up and turned the TV on, which was set to a news channel of some sort.
The tail end of a news story came on, “can you imagine Fasshia? Interstellar travel?”
“Well Demmer we might not have to for much longer,” a pair of Nite, a man, and a woman, stood before a large screen with images, information, and some numbers scrolling behind them.
To Yuki’s surprise, it was remarkably similar to a news station she had seen on Dei, though both anchors were sitting in that situation.
The Nite here wore formal attire, the male wearing a rather snug shirt that showcased his broad chest and biceps and a set of slacks that ended at his ankles. His claws were oddly polished black, in contrast with his light yellow skin and emerald green eyes. His horns were polished in the same manner.
The woman was in a business suit, for the most part, though she wore slacks that ended at her mid-calf. Her scales were dark green, mostly solid, with blue eyes.
Her horns and claws were polished as well, shimmering black, though the tips of her horns had little gold caps on the tips. On top of the gold caps on her horns, she had a pair of sparkling earrings and a glimmering necklace that coiled around her long neck several times.
“We go to the hunt report with Trennick, Trennick?” the anchorwoman, Fasshia, introduced.
The next Nite’s scales were brown and he wore a similar suit compared to the first male anchor, Demmer, “Thanks Fasshia. Well, yesterday was a very eventful day, and not in the major hunt!” an image of Tassel appeared on the screen, “A record was broken yesterday by none after than the daughter of the Northern District’s top huntress Murrika Wan! Tassel Wan!.”
An image appeared of Tassel standing atop a massive beast, the blood seemed cropped out. Standing next to her, almost as tall as Tassel was standing on the creature, was a large and powerful looking blue nite with matching blue eyes.
Yuki glanced down to the picture of Murrika and Allia, she held it up to the TV, her eyes narrowing, “wait, you’re not Murrika’s daughter…” Yuki’s eyes widened as an epiphany struck her, “You’re Allia’s,” she whispered under her breath.
The news report continued in the background, “Tassel and her Carrier, Lasser Trent, managed to take down a two-ton Bronzi. Amazingly, the kill didn’t need to be air-lifted, Lasser carried the majority of the load himself! At only seventeen the boy stands a staggering 2.4 meters tall!”
The screen changed to Lasser next to an even taller blue Nite, also a male, wearing a leather harness over his broad chest. His arm around Lasser, holding him tightly.
“Mr. Trent, are you proud of your son?” a reporter asked off-camera.
“Of course!” he laughed, “and I’m not surprised, because this is not the heaviest this boy can lift!” he gave Lasser’s arm a squeeze, “The boy still has growing to do!”
The scene shifted back to Trennick at the desk, “still has growing to do, a very proud father!” he laughed. “Here is hoping Tassel and Lasser all the success of their predecessors, and more. Safe Hunting out there folks!”
A Large table appeared on the screen showing a set of numbers, city names, and districts.
“In standard Hunting results, we can see the Northern District hunt is up from last year by a sizable margin, but not too far ahead of the Central District hunt…”
Yuki was certain as she studied the picture closely. The phrase rang in her head from the memory Tassel shared in the dinner. What was that phrase? Something about Allia?
The scene shifted back to the other anchors, “Tassel is really helping to skew the hunt in our districts’ favor it would seem!” Demmer announced.
Fasshia nodded, “That’s right Dem, it seems the first Allia Born Huntress has already made a splash, I can only imagine what the others will do as they enter the circuit.”
“A new breed of huntress on the rise sounds like good news!” Demmer laughed, the two anchors chuckling.
“Serren,” Yuki shouted from the living room as she approached the kitchen, “what is an Allia born huntress?”
Serren came to a halt in the kitchen, stopping his food preparation mid-way, “Allia born? Why-”
“The news mentioned that Tassel is ‘Allia-born’,” Yuki said as she approached Serren, placing the photo she found on the counter, “and it’s very clear to me that Tassel is not Murrika’s.”
Serren was silent and Yuki could feel he was thinking of Allia again.
“I thought you had no children with her,” Yuki frowned, “did you lie to me?”
Serren shook his head, “No,” his eyes were wet, sorrow on his face.
“Serren?” Yuki’s hand was on his forearm.
Serren heaved a sigh, “Allia didn’t die in the field, she died at the hospital,” his eyes closed, sending a few tears down his cheek.
Yuki could feel his pain, a tear rolling down her face as well.
“But Allia was special,” he smiled weakly, turning to her, “She came from a long line of Huntresses,” he took a deep breath, “so she had mutations. Her claws were stronger, her leg bones, denser, her wings lighter, more agile,” he smiled wistfully. “She was born to hunt.”
“But I don’t understand,” Yuki asked, “if Allia and you didn’t have children, then how-”
“The government stated that, since Allia had elected to donate her organs upon death,” Serren took a deep breath, “that this included her eggs.”
Yuki looked to Murrika in the photograph, “So…”
“Several huntresses were eager to carry her eggs with their own mate’s seed,” Serren explained. “Tassel is the result of Allia’s egg, and Murrika’s mate’s seed.”
“Oh, Serren,” Yuki gasped.
“Tassel looks… so much like her mother,” Serren shook his head, “she’s really…” he forced a smile, “something special isn’t she?”
“That’s why you were thinking of her in the diner!” Yuki realized. “And before, when you kept seeing her smiling, was it because you kept seeing Allia in Tassel?”
Serren nodded.
“Oh, Serren!” Yuki hugged him tightly, and he hugged back, tears leaking from both of their eyes.
After some time, Yuki kissed Serren softly on the cheek, drying his eyes, “You know, you should look at this as a positive…” she beamed.
“A positive? How so?” Serren smiled back.
Yuki nodded, “Yes, in a way,” she looked at the photo, “she’s left little parts of herself for you.”
Serren nodded, “there are twenty, in total,” he smiled.
“Twenty pieces?” Yuki felt a mix of emotions, but pushed past them, trying to cheer Serren up, “That’s great, right? And Tassel’s a sweetheart… she’s… like a niece!” Yuki exclaimed.
“A niece?” Serren furrowed his brow.
Yuki nodded, “Yes! Just like a niece! And you can be her Uncle Serren,” Yuki grinned, “and I’ll be her Aunt Yuki!”
Serren’s smile warmed, and he kissed Yuki sweetly on the forehead, “I love you, Yuki.”
“And I love you,” Yuki grinned up at him.
Yuki’s ears perked up, however, as the TV caught her attention once more.
“And more information on the crashed Dei vessel that landed last week,” Demmer began, with a wide smile.
Yuki rushed into the living room, Serren following behind her.
“Yes, Dem,” the anchorwoman, Fasshia, confirmed on the TV.
A picture of Yuki appearing on the screen behind them. The shot was of her smiling, walking next to Serren at some point in the hospital. Of when she was unsure.
Fasshia continued with the story, “A very unlucky accident and a very lucky young woman, Mrs. Yuki Karkade, managed to survive not only the crash but a couple of days in the harsh wilderness before she was picked up by a hunting party: Hunter Lazzrelth Kade and her carrier Fezzick Roussi.”
A video of Lazzerlth and Fezzick now played, “It was the strangest prey I’ve ever tracked!” she smiled, “but we found her, a little worse for the wear, but we managed to get her to a hospital in Cairro City.”
Fezzick now spoke, “Certainly smarter than your average Bronzi!” he laughed.
Yuki frowned as the story continued, “why didn’t Dr. Terasuki tell me she was going through with this?”
“Maybe she worried she would interrupt your treatment at the hospital?” Serren offered.
Fasshia now carried on, “at the Niten Medical Institute of Cairro, the Dei Angel, Yuki Karkade, has been under the careful care of Doctor Khattara Terasuki.”
A video of Doctor Terasuki played behind Fasshia.
“Yuki is in excellent health now but needs rest to recover from her ordeal. We are in the process of reaching out to the Niten Foreign Affairs Bureau regarding her immediate living situation,” Dr. Terasuki explained professionally.
“And is there any confirmed date for Mrs. Karkade to return to Dei?” the interviewer asked off-camera.
“Again, that is up to the Niten Foreign Affairs Bureau to determine,” Dr. Terasuki explained.
“We reached out to the N.F.A.B.’s regional director, Gallor Enahv, for comment,” the reporter announced.
A video of a rather proper brown Nite, with muted gray spots here and there, and a pair of gray horns sat at a desk with a set of glasses sitting on the bridge of his snout. His eyes were a mix of green and brown. He wore a black suit and a rather brightly colored blue tie.
An interviewer off-camera asked, “What are the current plans with the Dei Angel?”
“At this time, we are currently coordinating between Dei authorities and plan to reach out to Yuki to inform her of her current options,” he smiled, his claw tapping oddly on the desk. Gallor appeared nervous on camera.
“Why am I on TV without someone consulting me first?” Yuki complained.
Serren gave Yuki an odd look, “The news reports what it will, they don’t have to ask permission.”
“What?!” Yuki gasped, shocked, “why didn’t Dr. Terasuki tell me about this at least? I mean why would she…” Yuki trailed off as she realized Dr. Terasuki could have told a different story. “...I guess she had her reasons,” Yuki said out loud.
Serren shrugged, “She must have, she wouldn’t do anything to defame you.”
Yuki chuckles, “I guess not," Yuki changed the subject, "so, what about dinner?”
...
A few days later Serren flew upside down, facing Yuki over a large range of pads and netting. “Keep your wings opened!” he shouted.
Yuki grimaced, “It’s not that easy to glide!” Yuki grunted with effort, giving her wings a flap and pushing herself higher in the air, “Woah!”
“Hey, not so high!” Serren turned around and slowly began to ascend to meet her.
Yuki steadied herself, “I’m landing, okay?”
Serren was soon next to her, holding her hand, “we’re landing,” he smiled.
Yuki smiled wide, shakily descending alongside Serren until she got close to the padded ground.
She misjudged the ground, however, and her foot came down just a second too late, causing her to tumble forwards onto the padding a few times.
Serren laughed as she caught up with her, “You okay?”
“Glad you find it amusing!” Yuki grumbled, sitting up, flexing her wings, and taking a deep breath. “I think it’s the padding.”
Her physical trainer, Tenn, landed next to her, “If you can land on padding, you’ll be able to land on solid ground.” he smiled, “go again?”
“Can I get a break?” Yuki pleaded.
Tenn laughed, “Nope! No rest for the weary!” he explained. Tenn turned for a moment but stopped, his face growing concerned.
Serren held Yuki’s shoulder tightly and she could tell he was on guard.
“What is it?” as if answering her question, the ground beneath her began to shake, “Is that an earthquake?”
Sirens began to wail in the distance.
Tenn shook his head, “no earthquake,” he turned to Serren and Yuki, “Herds near the city.”
An announcement began to ring out through the city, “WARNING: A Longervertis Herd is approaching the South Wall. All Occupants, evacuate immediately.”
Tenn rushed out of the training room.
Yuki turned to Serren, “What’s happening?”
“We need to move,” Serren took Yuki’s hand and began to run out of the building, the ground shaking more violently.
As they left the training center Yuki saw doctors and nurses running through the hallways with empty gurneys.
Dr. Terasuki was shouting, “I want ERs all prepped and ready, every single one of them!” she shouted, “no delay, life-threatening injuries are top priority!” she glared at Yuki, “Clear the hallways!”
Yuki gasped as Serren rushed her out of the hospital.
Yuki saw many Nite rushing out of the building and taking flight. “Serren!” Yuki shouted, “What’s happening?!”
Serren looked to her, “Do you want to head up and see?”
Yuki nodded, spreading her wings.
Serren held her hand tightly, flying up towards the top of a mid-sized building. A number of other Nite had gathered up top as well.
Yuki spotted where the announcement was coming from and her eyes went wide as, for the first time, she saw the walls surrounding the city.
A wall was built out of hardened concrete stretching 30 meters into the air and it was thick enough to drive a truck along the top! Separating large sections of the wall were huge towers that had the sirens and loudspeakers placed on top.
In between these walls were large ballista, each looked like a massive harpoon was loaded onto it. In between the ballista were massive cannons.
These massive walls, cannons, ballistas, and towers encircled the entire city in a structure that was absolutely baffling to see the scale of.
A new announcement rang out again, louder now that they were in the open: “WARNING: All Hunters to the South Wall. The Herd is on a direct collision path with the South Wall! All civilians evacuate the South Wall immediately! Medical Personnel, please make your way to the South Wall and maintain emergency responder distance!”
Serren’s brow furrowed, “I need to go.”
“Can I come with you?” Yuki fretted, “I’m scared, Serren.”
A young Niten boy cried out, “Daddy I’m scared too!”
Yuki turned to them, concerned as she saw his father kneel next to him, “It’s okay son, the Hunters are going to protect us!”
As if on cue, several adult hunters flew off towards the south wall.
The little boy pointed, “Daddy it’s Murrika!”
Murrika turned and grinned to the little boy, giving him a short salute as she passed overhead.
Serren leaped into the air and Yuki followed.
As they joined the hunters, Murrika soon flew next to Yuki.
“Here to see the action?” Murrika grinned.
Yuk’s expression soured, “I’m confused as to what’s going on.”
“Rogue heard,” a black scaled Nite laughed as he flew alongside Murrika, “nothing we can’t handle!”
Murrika laughed, “you’re too cocky!”
“Let's get us some dinner, babe!” the male announced.
Murrika grinned, “Duty calls!” she followed after him.
Serren motioned to Yuki to descend, where he landed alongside a number of other Nite on a building top with a large medical cross painted on the roof.
Yuki landed shakily, “I still don’t know what’s-” she stumbled as the ground shook and a massive bellowing roar was heard. This roar was soon mimicked by other large creatures and Yuki’s eyes went wide as the trees not far from the wall began to fall with loud snaps.
First, she only saw their heads, massive heads rising over the trees attached to thick necks. When they cleared the tree line, Yuki’s mouth hung open.
Each creature, from foot to shoulder, measured a staggering 7 meters and that spoke nothing of the massive necks that sprouted from the huge creature’s bodies, towering 13 meters above their shoulders. The necks were thick, heavily muscled, and colored with striped skin that looked heavy and tough.
Their teeth were sharp, though their eyes were on either side of their head, not front-facing like the Rippers she had seen before.
“That’s a big herd…” Serren’s brow furrowed.
A short female Nite next to them in a nurse's uniform similar to Serren's, spoke, “Guardians protect the hunters.”
Yuki watched as the massive animals opened their mouths, a terrible bellow coming from one, and then the other animals, as they stampeded towards the south wall.
An ear-piercing roar filled the air and Yuki spotted Murrika speeding towards the lead animal. There was cheering from rooftops as Murrika slashed at its cheek, soaring around and slicing at its neck.
Little blood was seen, but the lead creature soon turned, running alongside the wall now, the others following it.
All the nurses, Serren included, let out a sigh of relief.
Yuki smiled, “Crisis averted?”
Serren smiled back, “Murrika got lucky, the herd didn’t have any large-”
“Bull!” one of the nurses pointed, cutting Serren off.
Yuki turned, staggering back and falling onto her rear as the building she was on shook even more as an animal almost 5 meters taller than the rest emerged from the tree line.
This one was making its way towards the wall and its roar was broad and deafening.
Yuki covered her ears as she watched Murrika and a number of other hunter’s swarm the animal. It made no sign of stopping despite the hunters nicking it’s flesh here and there.
“It’s gone rogue,” Serren shouted, “it has to be put down!”
The massive creature swung it’s head to the left and, to Yuki’s shock, it struck Murrika!
Yuki shrieked as she watched Murrika fall, disappearing behind the opposite side of the wall. One other Nite flew down after her.
That’s when she watched as the large artillery was moved into position.
Another announcement came swiftly: “ARTILLERY ENGAGE - ALL HUNTERS CLEAR THE AREA!”
Serren grabbed Yuki, hugging her head tight as a cannon fired.
Yuki watched as a blast of fire and molten slag crashed into the creature’s huge neck.
Next, a pair of ballista fired a set of harpoons tethered to the side of the walls into the creature’s neck.
It roared in pain, falling behind the wall.
Yuki’s heart was pounding in her ears as she watched in shock and awe.
The ground shuddered once more as the mighty beast was felled, Yuki watched as the remaining animals, almost thirty, continued their maddened march down the length of the wall, eventually making their way out, away from the city.
“My Guardian,” Yuki stammered as Serren got her to her feet.
“Are you okay?” Serren frowned.
“I’m fine!” Yuki shouted, “Murrika, did you see what happened to her?!”
Serren shook his head, “we have to wait.”
The sirens now ceased, and a new announcement came: “ALL CLEAR. REPEAT. ALL CLEAR. MEDICAL PERSONNEL TO THE SOUTH WALL. WE HAVE MULTIPLE INJURIES!”
Serren took to the air, as did the other nurses.
Yuki jumped into the air as well, taking Serren’s hand.
Serren turned to Yuki, concerned, “Yuki, no! You have to hang back!”
“Like oblivion I am!” Yuki shouted back, “our friend might be hurt! I’m not leaving your side!” she narrowed her eyes at him, “I’m not a stranger to danger!”
Serren frowned and nodded, descending behind the wall.
Yuki this time lowered her feet too soon and stumbled slightly once she got to the ground.
Serren looked around, seeing the body of the massive creature on the ground. It was heaving its final breaths, blood soaked the ground as if it were water running from a stream.
Murrika was shouting near the head of the beast, “Fammel!” she cried out.
Serren rushed towards her, Yuki in tow.
“Murrika!” Serren shouted, rushing to her side and looking her over, “Are you hurt?”
Murrika’s wing was injured, it looked bruised and battered. She was on her hands and knees, her hands grabbing fists full of dirt as tears streamed down her face.
Muirrika’s face turned to Serren, her eyes full of pain and loss, “Fammel is under there!”
“You mean,” Yuki looked around, focusing on the huge body of the creature, “How did he get under there?”

Prior to the Longvertis bull showing itself, Murrika soared through the air, a few other hunters were herding the Longervertis away from the wall.
Murrika looked to her carrier, Fammael, the large black-skinned Nite. She smiled at him, “Looks like we're done here, huh babe?”
The black-skinned Nite grinned to her and teased, “You’ve been calling me that a lot lately.”
Murrika smiled, running her hand over her head, “My mate left me with Tassel a while ago and… well, you understand me a lot more than anyone else…” Murrika was interrupted by a mighty roar.
“Bull!” one of the tower watchers yelled.
“Hold that thought,” Murrika said, turning her flight path in midair and soaring directly at the large creature. She flapped her wings in long powerful strides, rushed up to the face of the massive bull longevertis, and slashed at its right cheek with her claws, making sure to dig her toe claws at it as well, in case she missed. But neither did, and blood flew from the wounds.
The creature let out a mighty wail and while it seemed to be turning, it abruptly swung its head toward Murrika with surprising speed.
Murrika, already flying away from the creature, was hit on her back, forcibly folding one of her wings and sending her spiraling down toward the ground nearly twelve meters below.
The black Nite, Fammel, dove down from the air and caught her quickly, landing as fast as he could on the ground.
Murrika was dazed, looking up to him, “F-Fammel…” she pointed up.
Fammel looked up and jumped forward, narrowly avoiding the mighty foot of the enraged creature.
“ARTILLERY ENGAGE - ALL HUNTERS CLEAR THE AREA!” an announcement came from the wall.
Fammel jumped into a glide, as he flew he was trapped low to the ground, not having the time or space to take flight fully.
Murrika was holding on tight as she saw the creature get blasted with shrapnel from the cannon and then skewered by the massive harpoons, but it was now poised to fall directly on top of them. “Fammel! It’s falling!”
Fammel looked up and flapped harder, but soon looked ahead to see the fast-encroaching shadow of the beast overtaking them. He closed his eyes tightly. “I love you, Murrika.” Fammel hurled Murrika ahead of him with all his strength.
Murrika felt herself propelled forward, as she hit the ground hard and fast, she rolled forward about 20 meters. The ground shook suddenly and dust flew into the air. Murrika coughed and gasped for air, the dust choking her.
“Medic!” Murrika heard someone call out in the distance, a slight ringing in her ears as she pushed herself to her knees, dazed and disoriented.
Murrika staggered to her feet, placing her hand on a smooth rock right next to her. She looked to her hand, seeing her claw digging into thick leathery skin. “Fammel?” she called out as she realized her hand was not against a rock, but rather the smooth hide of the massive creature.
Murrika looked around, frantic, confused, and bewildered. Her wing was battered and bruised, and as such she wanted to, she couldn’t take to the air to search for Fammel. “Fammel!” Murrika shouted, louder than before.
No answer.
The dust slowly cleared. Murrika looked down, seeing the tracks she made on the ground as she had rolled. She followed them and found they were only a few short meters from the body of the beast. Murrika’s eyes widened, “Fammel!”
No answer.
Murrika clenched her fists, closed her eyes, and let out an anguished roar. She dropped to her knees, tears streaming down her face. “Fammel!” she screamed.
Her claws dug into the flesh of the creature before her. She frantically tore through its flesh, ripping and tearing with her claws, “No! Fammel! I’ll save you! I swear!!”
Another announcement came from the wall, “ALL CLEAR. REPEAT. ALL CLEAR. MEDICAL PERSONNEL TO THE SOUTH WALL. WE HAVE MULTIPLE INJURIES!”
Murrika looked up at the wall, tears streaming down her face, “Down here! Help! Please!” she glared at the bleeding wound she had opened in the fallen animal, “Fammel… you can’t be dead!” She fell to her knees, her claws digging into the dirt as she closed her fists tightly, her eyes shut tight as tears streamed down her snout, “you can’t be dead!”
...
Serren shouted up to the wall, “A carrier is pinned down! Lift the body! Hurry!”
Heavy chains attaching the harpoons to the wall above soon drew taut and the body of the creature was slowly lifted up.
Serren frowned, “It’s okay Murrika-”
Murrika grabbed him, glaring at him, “It’s not okay!” she pushed him away from her frantically, “He pushed me out of the way!” she pointed, tears streaming down her face, “I should be under there! Not him!”
The chains soon creaked and signaled they were reaching their limits even as the body only lifted a small amount off the ground.
Serren moved Yuki back, “Please wait here,” he rushed to a set of doors near the wall, with the help of many others, as they moved what looked like large wheeled jacks under the small space created by the harpoon chains.
They began to push the jacks up, lifting the creature’s body up higher.
The roar of what sounded like a jet engine caught Yuki’s attention as she looked up.
Above her was a large craft with flashing white and blue lights. Four jet engines on either side were pointing at the ground, slowly lowering the massive craft as a set of landing gear descended from the hull of the large vessel.
As it touched down the engines powered down and a few more Nite rushed out with a stretcher.
Serren grunted, pushing his jack as high as it would go, “Oh, Thank the Guardians, the Ambulance is here!”
Yuki shouted, “that’s an ambulance?!”
The short Niten woman who Yuki recalled from the rooftop shouted, “I see him! I need a stretcher!”
Everyone now rushed towards her, some pushing more jacks under the huge animal as more blood pooled around it.
Yuki’s hands moved to her mouth as she watched the black Nite from earlier, Fammel, slowly being pulled out from under the creature. Fammel’s body was battered, bruised, and crushed. His tail appeared to be snapped in half, and he was missing a wing. His neck was bent at an unnatural angle and from his nostrils and mouth blood sputtered, indicating at least a few broken ribs had pierced his lungs.
Someone shouted from the top of the wall, “It won’t hold! The chain is coming down!”
Everyone rushed away from the creature, ensuring that Fammel was far away as the chain went loose, the jacks all straining and sliding down into the ground.
A loud ‘bang’ startled Yuki as one of the jacks failed entirely, breaking under the weight of the huge creature.
Serren shouted, “Is everyone okay?”
Murrika was kneeling next to Fammel, her eyes streaming tears, “Fammel… Oh, Guardians… why did you...?”
Fammel gasped, and wheezed, trying to speak, but failing.
The EMTs who arrived in the large ambulance picked the stretcher up and carried Fammel inside.
Murrika steeled herself and wiped away her tears, marching into the ambulance with the others as it took off into the air.
Yuki was in shock as Serren approached her.
“Yuki? Are you okay?” Serren asked.
Yuki shook her head, “Serren… what is that thing?” she pointed to the massive reptile that lay on the ground before her.
Serren heaved a sigh, “That is a Longervertis,” he shook his head, “one of the bigger ones I’ve seen.”
“Get me out of here, Serren,” Yuki said, reaching up to his neck, hugging him tightly.
Serren took her up in his arms, “I have to go to her.”
Yuki turned to Serren, “Who?”
“What sort of uncle would I be if I wasn’t there for my niece's family in their time of need?” Serren forced a smile.
Yuki smiled weakly, shivering, fighting back tears, “okay, let's go be Murrika and Tassel’s moral support.”
With that Serren took to the air, heading towards the hospital.
submitted by Zithero to libraryofshadows [link] [comments]

Day trading on margin. How does it work???

I have been day trading for some time in a cash account and I have been considering applying to upgrade to a margin account. I’ve been googling for the last few hours trying to find an answer to a specific margin question with a frustrating lack of resolution. Bear with me.
Let me first start by saying that I know what margin is and I fully understand the PDT rule. The answer that I am looking for is not an explanation of what they mean (which is all I got from google). I am trying to understand the effect of my buying power after having already completed a day trade.
I read somewhere that margin can cover all of my trade if, of course, I choose to use only margin and if I have the margin buying power to do so. I’m not sure if this is true and if it isn’t true, please someone let me know, but if it is true what is my buying power after my following example...
Hector is an active trader and he has an account with $25k cash and a 4:1 margin. So obviously $100k buying power. Hector buys 25 shares of ABC at $1,000 per share totaling $25,000 and he chooses to fund 100% of this purchase with margin. 30 minutes later he sells his position for $1,100 per share. A profit of $2,500. Later that day he spots another trade opportunity. What is his buying power for that second trade? Is it $75k because he already used $25k of his initial $100k buying power? Or is it still $100k because he didn’t use any of his actual cash to fund the original trade?
I’m sorry if this is a stupid question or asked in a very drawn out way but there seems to be no easy way to ask this.
submitted by Chance_The_Fapper69 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

This rally is a mirage, we are only in the beginning stages of this recession

TL;DR at the bottom
Hi guys, with the market rallying 20% from its "bottom", many people are expressing the sentiment that we should buy back into the market again because the "fed" or the "government" won't allow stocks to crash.
We will for sure see unprecedented actions taken by the fed and the government because they have both the motive and the political capital to enact such policies. However, I think this is a misguided reason to believe the market is currently making its "real" rally.
I am not not a permabear nor am I a permabull. I just try to objectively analyze the facts, apply a healthy dose of margin of safety, and then see if my conclusions are actionable.
For example, I posted my thesis on why we will enter a serious global economic downturn on Feb 9th 10 days before it happened. At the time we were at the height of the biggest bull market in our history, and I had gotten a lot of attacks on my thesis leading up to me consolidating my thoughts:
https://www.reddit.com/China_Flu/comments/f1fm6y/the_world_economy_will_enter_a_serious_downturn/
I continued adding more thoughts on things like the potential efficacy of Chloroquine 2 weeks before Trump announced it in a press conference and the media picked up on it, the potential collapse of American oil producers before the price war happened, casinos going under, helicopter money, bailouts, etc all before they were announced or the markets priced them in here:
https://www.reddit.com/China_Flu/comments/fede69/continued_thoughts_on_the_global_economic_impact/
And finally I talked about an upcoming inflection point coincidentally moments before Trump first announced Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine and 2 trading days before the "bottom" of the market:
https://www.reddit.com/stocks/comments/fleh7e/incoming_inflection_point_for_general_market/
So I'm perfectly happy to make bearish calls or bullish calls, they are dependent variables of independent and unbiased analysis. I hope I made a reasonable case for why I am not personally biased (although, for the sake of humanity, I do wish for progress and prosperity of course).
I think the market rally is largely a mirage, and we are not getting correct pricings. The rally is probably driven by two main sources:
So the capital displacement is relatively simple: If you're seeking shelter in "risk free" investments that has some yields, you're now competing with a buyer (federal reserve) that prints hundreds of billions up to whatever it wants. They're literally squeezing out capital from the finite treasuries.
If you want riskier high quality corporate bonds, the fed will be there.
If you want even equities, you're going to face competition for them in the future. At least that's what former chairwoman Jenet Yellen recently said about the possibility of expanding their powers to buy equities.
So money is getting squeezed into a smaller and smaller relative portion of the financial markets, and the artificial demand is driving yields down and prices up. I could write a whole thread about this, but let's stick with the explanation of price movement.
The second main reason for the recent rally is from institutional investors who are incorrectly modeling earnings/yield of equities. So the logic here is: trillions are injected into the economy (fiscal injections), those trillions will become earnings for companies at some multiplier of the original stimulus over x amount of time, and if we add this number to the unstimulated estimated earnings, we can model future earnings.
My issue with this model, is on two main assumptions:
The first assumption is the length of disruption caused by the threat of this virus.
This virus is not going to stop its serious disruption of behavior from economic actors. Especially not in a country like the US where the majority of people have a massive financial disincentive to seek out healthcare. Here's my logic:
For months I've been praising the governments and response of South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. With Taiwan being the absolute best at handling the virus. However, I have also been using them as my leading indicators for how the virus will progress and affect economic actors. What I have seen developing lately is not good.
Singapore is now calling for a shutdown, after they initially did a herculean job of containing their outbreak. I had hoped that they would develop procedures (that we can copy) needed to run an open economy while the threat of the virus looms in the background. But that is not what has happened. Instead, we are seeing growing numbers of new clusters forming, and quickly getting out of control. They are tightening and shutting down their economy rather than opening up more. This is our leading indicator. A government far more responsible and effective than us is resorting to shutting down.
Taiwan is faring better, but only because of their prohibitive ban on almost all foreign travelers (this is obviously devastating to their tourism sector and broader economy). Their economy and society remains open, with many if not most people having hardly any interruptions to their lives (aside from mask wearing). They are one of only 3 countries where all children are still going to school. However, even their economy is faltering as they try to balance the prohibitive actions needed to contain the virus and the economic need to keep things open. They are proposing an unprecedented stimulus/rescue package to bolster their economy. And I think it's a safe assumption that if they ever do open up to foreign travelers again, especially with covid19 having proliferated as it already has, then they will have to deal with massive outbreak clusters all over their island.
South Korea, which has probably the relatable and relevant model for us to copy, has recently extended its social distance campaign. South Korea is a far larger nation than Singapore or Taiwan. They have a climate similar to Seattle/New York. They had a major outbreak in Deagu but didn't shut their country down. They never even banned Chinese travelers, yes, they had Chinese tourists in their country while the outbreak was happening. They were among the first to widely use Hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine as a treatment for Covid19. They had among the lowest fatality rates. They contained their outbreak without shutting the whole country down.
Even South Korea can't truly return to normal and open their economy up.
So why, in our incredible American exceptionalism hubris, and far less competent leaders, do we believe we're going to come anywhere close to normalcy in the near future?
Let's look at the next assumption, that fiscal stimulus would end up as earnings for companies. There's no doubt some will end up as earnings, but only a small fraction of what is being modeled by those on Wall Street.
The average American don't even have $1000 in emergency funds, do we expect them to return to their normal consumption habits when they risk having hospital bills multiples of $1000 just from walking past the wrong person? Do you think Americans, as much as they love to spend, aren't going to put some of that stimulus check in their emergency funds rather than contribute it to the earning of some companies? Sure, there will be some "forced" spending of the money (food and necessities), but if anyone is modeling the multiplier effect from previous data, then they really don't appreciate how different this virus makes things. Even in the GFC, laid off people didn't really worry about the heightened threat of being hospitalized.
Finally, some investors believe the Fed and the government literally will do anything to keep the numbers up. If this is true, you should be buying silver (or gold), not stocks.
Monetary actions can be reversed relatively easily. They are far more dynamic tools. Fiscal actions are not. You put money in the hands of spenders, that money is gonna circulate. And you really don't have an easy way of reversing that. If we think the government is going to keep handing out stimulus checks, grants to businesses, and other fiscal stimulus, then the inflation predicted from the GFC will come true for this crisis.
The fall out of inflation will be difficult to truly understand. But I do think inflation will be disruptive enough to the economy that inflation hedge assets will outperform other assets at least in the short term. For example, if inflation goes to 5%, who's going to lend to companies for less than inflation? With costlier debt, equity yield goes down, and again, what investor wants yields less than inflation? Inflation is going to cause all kinds of disruptions. I think the disruptions will come down to less liquidity (credit will vanish with uncertain inflation) and higher economic friction (less efficiency).
So if the response to why the market has to go up is continuous fiscal (and some monetary) actions to prop up spending and earnings, then the question is how will fiscal actions be reversed? How do we get that money out after things go back to "normal"?
I think if we see equities rise from here, it'll be reflective of inflation rather than inflation-adjusted earnings. Silver would be the play here.
I have a lot more thoughts on this, especially on the time it takes to turn the gears of the financial system and why the inertia is moving us deeper into global recession, not out of it, but I'm running out of time and must end here.
TL;DR this is a fake rally, and if anyone really expects prices to continue rallying, buy silver instead
submitted by Starcraftduder to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Magical Songstress vs Blood Scientist

Magical Songstress vs Blood Scientist
With the addition of my last (real) post that was about Warfarin (WFR), we now have enough details to fully take on the question people asked many moons ago and even now. Who is better at buffing their allies? And since it’s always depends, then when and why do each bested the other? In this post I will trying my best to justify all of the possible comparison and rig it in a way so that Sora win………what
Terrible banner below
Horrendous photoshop skills confirmed
To read more about them, I have made dedicated post for each. You can read more about Warfarin and Sora there.
Anyway, first thing first. We can get the general stuff out of the way. Stats, and all of the miscellaneous sh…enanigans. And to do that, we need to lay out the assumptions.

Assumptions

For all numbers used for comparing purposes, we will be talking in E2 Lv30 with full trusts and pot 1 for all parties involved, since it’s a typical stopping range. WFR and Sora’s respective S1 will be compare at level 7. However, for their respective S2, we will be comparing them at M3 for most of the time, since the purpose of this post is to mainly compare buffs and shit, that and I don’t think anyone actually M3 their S1.
For that assumption,
WFR’s stats would be: 1424 HP, 516 ATK, 109 DEF, 19 costs, 2.85s attack interval, and 0 RES.
Sora’s stats would be: 1141 HP, 349 ATK, 228 DEF, 7 costs, no interval, and 0 RES.
And if anyone get dragged in the example later on will probably just get calculated later.
Quick table for summaries
WFR Sora
Profession Medic Supporter
Age At least 100 Ouch stop hitting okay fine sorry put the chair down
Healing power - 100% of her ATK every 2.85s to 1 person in her range - Has the 2nd highest ATK stats among medics, 5th when counting supporters as well. - 10% of her attack every second to everyone in her range, doesn’t affected by attack rate whatsoever - Has the 4th, 3rd, 2nd lowest ATK of the game at E0, 1, 2 respectively
Range A 3x4 range with WFR on the middle of the 3-tiles-edge 2 tiles away from Sora at any direction (Similar to Texas’ S2 area)
Survivability (HP, DEF, RES…) Average HP and DEF, and no RES among medics and supporters Below average HP, 0 RES, but highest DEF among all ranged operators in the game quality steel microphone confirmed
Cost to deploy 19 7
Base skills Helps medic complete masteries faster Restore morale for everyone in the room faster and Trade Post faster
Method to support allies (aside from healing) 3 ways: Talent and 2 skills Only 2: her 2 skills
Now to the explanation.
- The class classification is not going to be important… most of the time, however, when we’re talking hard content options, Medics tends to get a worse treatment compare to Supporters. In CM or CC with different risks, Medics do get banned specifically when it’s due, whereas Supporters usually don’t (except for 2-2 CM, and some future CC maps). Maps that has a certain inhibition (ban, x3 costs…) to Medics are more often seen than map that inhibit Supporters, is what I’m saying.
- Their healing power is also drastically different. WFR is a single target medic (which does get higher ATK to compensate), whereas Sora, first of isn’t even a healer, second, she heals in an AoE. Even AoE medics can only heal 3 allies at once, but Sora? She sings away, restoring HP to up to 12 allies in her range, plus herself. That’s actually enough for a whole squad + support unit, when WFR can only fit 12 people in her range including herself. Although, good luck finding a map that does allow you to do that (and even in AF-8, you still face the deployment limit of 9). For a quick number comparison, WFR heals 516 HP every 2.85s to one ally, as in 181 HP/s (or HPS I guess) to only 1 person. Sora in comparison get 34.9 HPS but to all ally. The breakpoint then is 181/34.9 = 5.19 → 6 allies before WFR’s heals become worse than Sora’s. That’s actually pretty hard to do, which means Sora will lose to WFR when it comes to healing, hey wait a minute Sora isn’t even a medic though, so that’s pretty natural.
There is a silver lining, because Sora doesn’t necessary “heal”, she can restore HP to unhealable target. That means she can heal Hellagur, Vulcan, Utage, all summons, including Magellan’s Soaring Dragons, Mayer’s Meeboos, Deepcolor’s Tentacle, Nightingale’s Phantom, and of course any future addition of these type of units.
But wait, there’s more in chapter 6. With the appearance of chill and frozen debuff, the healing rate of WFR can get shafted. Sora healing rate does not get affected by attack rate reduction, or heck even stun or frozen, so for those case, Sora can have an easy time healing whereas WFR wouldn’t, even if Sora’s healing is bad. Except…
- Sora’s range is far worse than WFR’s. Even if Sora can heal while stunned/frozen, her reach to allies is worse. At most Sora can only heal allies 2 tiles away from her, whereas WFR can reach up to 4 tiles ahead of her (though she can’t reach 2 tiles from her side nor behind). This allows WFR to have a little bit more flexibility in deployment location.
- Their HP are also not that high, WFR’s 1424 HP vs Sora’s 1141. Sora's HP loses out by quite a lot, but Sora’s DEF doubled WFR’s, 228 vs 109. Considering both has 0 RES, that means Sora’s pretty good at surviving physical damage, whereas WFR is better at surviving magical damage. Though of course, none should be primarily used to tank ranged attack, unless the enemies’ ranged attacks are much weaker compare to the melee, so you can choose to alleviate some of the pressure off your melee operators, but then you have to divide your healing to more people, which actually is something that Sora needs to catch up to WFR’s HPS.
- Sora cost way less than WFR, to basically compensate for what she couldn’t compete against WFR. If you remember from my Sora post, her cost is the lowest in the game bar the robots (and Gravel full pot pfff).
- Their base skills fill different roles…I wouldn’t say much here since it’s not the focus of this post nor is there any real way to compare them. WFR trains other medics faster, Sora supports her fans and M O N E Y.
- Both of their skills can support their allies. If you haven’t noticed it yet though, both of Sora and WFR’s skills are similar. Their first skill causes a large heal, and their second skill increases ally’s ATK (Sora’s first skill has something else but shhhh). WFR then, win this comparison because she has her talent that grants SP to ally in her range whenever an enemy die in her range. More SP means faster skill charge rate, which lead to more damage overall from operators, and more SP also allows WFR to use her skills faster, which lead to more support than Sora.
That’s a bit too much for general comparison. Let’s go a little bit more into specific skills comparison.

Showdown: First skill

Sick Microsoft Paint skills
I'm not going to full details of what each skill does again, but to summarize: WFR’s first skill heal an ally that is under 50% HP for an additional 19% of their max HP. So basically for WFR’s next heal, she heals for 516 + 19% of the healed ally’s max HP. Sora’s first skill on the other hand, expands her normal range and increase her regen much further. Sora’s new range is equal to Saria’s S2 healing range, and her regeneration is now 349 * 70% = 244.3 HPS (it’s going to be 349 if you decided to M3 this skill but what psycho actually do that itwasajokecalmdown).
Strictly for healing (and assuming WFR’s S1 activated constantly), these skills now change their respective HPS. WFR’s HPS is now (516 + 19% of the ally’s max HP) / 2.85 = (181 + 6.6666% of ally max HP) HP/s. The % number looks fishy, it’s like they intentionally let the 19% there :thonkang: Anyway, the new break point between them is now 244.3 = 181 + 6.6666% max HP, with that max HP is (oh god I spent 4 years studied engineer in university to do gaming math) 949.5 max HP. Very few operators have that low max HP to begin with, except for maybe Haze, 1-2* ops, some 3* ops, and CC risks. If you tiptoe the heal between 2 allies, that increase the max HP limit to 244.3 = (181 + 6.6666% maxHP)/2, which lead to the new needed max HP to…4614. That’s… really bad for WFR now. As soon as WFR needs to heal 2 allies or more, she loses to Sora’s. Wait a minute, there’s this small part in my WFR’s post (which was pointed out by a commenter actually) that WFR’s S1 reset her healing animation (it wouldn’t cause her healing to be continuous though) between 2 allies so WFR win out again. If you have a third ally (or more), however, Sora wins with her S1 active. When we hit 3 or more allies that need strong healing at once, you may as well go train your operators stronger before attempting it again, WFR will never be able to keep up, especially because she can only hold 3 charges which can run out faster than 7s from Sora’s S1. (But there’s a twist which will be present later)
The utility of Sora’s phase shifting all enemies in her range can also be important. In my old Sora’s post, I stated that this skill is perfect for reset when things go wrong. She can guarantee healing while stopping enemies from doing the thing that force your operators to need healing to begin with. It’s a bit hard to quantify in numbers but keep that in mind for general usage. HOWEVER, unlike WFR’s S1, a skill that is perfect to buy time for your allies with massive healing, Sora’s S1 completely phase them out, not allowing them to cause harm or be harmed. This is bad because WFR’s skill does not do that, which means you can eliminate this threat even before her 3 charges is used up. Where for Sora’s case, after her skill is over, she loses her massive healing rate, while the enemy that cause the need for a massive heal is still there because you couldn’t kill him when this skill is up. This is the thing I said back in her post, that this skill can be used to buy enough time for round 2, and one thing I only slightly implied was that, if your ops lose this round 2, there’s no comeback.
Which lead to another thing, because Sora isn’t a bona fide healer, in order to use Sora in the field, you’re basically forced to bring an actual medic first, which will cost you an additional deploy limit. Or, you can use Saria along with her (personally duped as the Soaria combo), who already more than enough filled the role of a medic. As in, Saria alone sometime couldn’t fulfill completely the entire role of a medic, but if you add Sora, they both would (unintentional Sora’s S2 showcase).
The change in Sora’s range can swing the comparison as well, but then, it’s apple and orange, as WFR has a long frontal reach, while Sora has large surrounding reach, which including behind her. It does allow Sora to reach her allies easier, but it’s something that WFR can already done most of the time.
One last thing is that Sora’s skill has a really terrible duration, with a terrible cooldown, even if her talent activated, when compare to WFR’s S1. 60SP to use for only 7 seconds is a huge downside, but for that strong effect, it may seem like a balanced(?) decision.
And with that comes the knock out attack from WFR, because Sora’s skill is a “use once, go recharge” type of skill, while WFR can hold 3 charges, it means that WFR’s can just use 1 or 2 charges and be fine. What that signify is that Sora need to fully commit her skill to perform whatever role she needs of that skill, while because WFR’s can store 3 charges (4 if you’re psychopath), she has no real need to commit. If another threat shows up within 60 seconds (or 30s if Sora managed her talent), Sora cannot do anything else for that. We did said earlier that if there’s a lot of allies need strong healing in range, Sora is stronger, but that won’t be like that most of the time. Heck, even if WFR use all 3 charges, she can still restore 1 more charge to use faster than Sora, needing only 4 healing intervals, which can also combine with WFR’s talent which cover half a charge each proc. (Fun fact: both talents recover half the SP required for their S1, that is all).
This has been pointed out many times before, but that just mean Sora isn’t meant to be a healer, which according to the game she already is not. But she could catch up in a few scenarios, one being hardcore AoE heal, the other being countering attack speed debuff (whether it’s an actual attack speed debuff, or just stunned or frozen, which results in attack rate become 0).
Well, now we’re at the section that is the reason why this post was made

Showdown: Second skill

More sick Paint skill
The question has been asked many times.>! I also asked myself many times “Was it worth it to S2M3 both of their skills?” The answer is heck yea!<. But jokes aside, between the two, when will each do better? I will attempt to justify as most cases as possible, except for the few most specific lineups that mainly exists for memes. Now you may say we only buff allies when we do meme, but nobody made that the rule. Believe it or not, you can unironically use buffer (no plural though, because even that’s meme territory even for me) for normal run.
With how strong WFR’s normal healing is due to her high ATK, you can actually use her S2 for runs that never require a strong healing. WFR is perfect for adding just the minimum required healing while providing more to the team with her SP and ATK boost.
First off, WFR always beat Sora with her SP granting talent, so we’ll stop mention that for the rest of this post. WFR’s talent is more consistent (50% from Sora is still quite reliable, but as soon as it doesn’t work once, you’ll remember it), and it can also help allies.
Second off, ally operators who have high attack speed, multi hits, multi targets, AoE, and high skill multipliers all works really well with their buff. But since those thing works for both WFR and Sora’s skill, there’s no winning here. Just remember that those things work amazing with these attack buffs.
Third off, back to 3 points ago. Because WFR can heal and buff at the same, she can transcend from her boring important medic role to a supporter, whereas for Sora, she can’t really do vice-versa. But as I mentioned a while back, Medics tend to get ban more in harder contents, while Supporters have slightly less occasion where they would receive such treatment. In Contingency Contract, you can technically not pick the risks, but it’s there. I heard future CC does have risk that ban Supporters, but again the ban is still at a lower frequency than Medics.
Fourt…nvm I’m getting tired of this. Next, we’ll go further on how much each skill increases their allies’s ATK. There’s our main discrepancy between the 2 buffs, because one increases a flat number of ATK to allies, while the other increases a percentage of damage to an ally. Sora basically give an additional 349 ATK to everyone in her range, while WFR increases their ATK by an additional 90% of their base. This is also worth mentioning again because these ATK buffs only stack additively, not multiplicatively. Anyway, so the break-even point is pretty clear, any operators whose 349 is 90% of their ATK value. That is basically any operator at 387.(7) ATK, which is pretty low. Very few operators have lower damage, and those that do don’t do DPS role (Defenders, Robots, Medics…) except Ranger. Ranger with Sora buff will destroy enemies…or just drones idk.
The turnaround is of course not on 1 ally, but more. If Sora can only boost about 45% of her allies’ damage, then boosting 2 allies is enough to compromise using her instead of WFR who boost for 90% to one ally, 30% with 3, and so on. The more allies Sora boosts, the more she leaves WFR in the dusts. This is actually even better because of 2 reasons. First is again the total % boost of Sora’s buff for multiple allies, the more allies in her range, the better her buff becomes. Second is about the same setup but for healing, since Sora needs more allies to catch up with WFR's healing, and since WFR is mainly use as a healer, you’d need to put your allies in WFR’s range as well. If you do that, then her HPS reduced and the RNG start to affect your buff. The more allies need WFR’s heal, the less consistent her buff become while Sora gain many many chance to catch up.
But WFR won’t go down without a fight, I already devised a way to work around her RNGesus back in her highlights post. Essentially, you can work around the selection of the buff simply by having a win-win situation, instead of putting Cuora in her range, put a strong AoE guard instead, to the point where whoever it randomed to, it’s not a bad choice at all. An extreme form of that strat is to put only 1 person in WFR’s range, which is what most people would default to. That is not wrong, but that would also mean you’re removing her normal role, aka medic, and also because of how large WFR’s range is, in order to have only 1 person in her range, a large area need to be cleared out, OR, if you have WFR face a different angle, then her talent would start to not function properly. Regardless, controlling WFR’s buff can be easy, however it is limiting at time.
There’s also the fact that WFR actually buff 2 persons, not just 1. WFR always buff herself first and foremost. Sora for some reason doesn’t do that. Because the ATK buff is determined before her skill actually start and stay there for the whole duration, i.e. if Sora has an amount of ATK at the time she uses this skill and then getting more (or less) ATK while the skill is already running, the ATK buff wouldn’t change. With that condition in mind, I think Sora S2 could buff herself, effectively x2 her healing during the skill with nothing else change. Though it will still not be that good for healing, it’s still better. Anyway, WFR buffs herself during this skill, which means WFR heals for much stronger during it. That can mean you don’t necessarily need her first skill if you only need it for a certain strong and threatening enemy that only comes periodically. Again, the fact that WFR is a strong medic is helping massively in this buffing war, which has nothing to do with healing lel. But the buff does affect WFR herself, which means Sora need double the amount of ally needed to match up with WFR again. Strictly for buffing allies though, Sora can still easily outbuff WFR.
Sora does have a different approach to buffing comparing to WFR. When I said about making a formation that WFR wouldn’t buff any one that you don’t want, it’s kinda implied that all of them will be DPS because WFR’s buff only target one person and they should generally be DPS, which means that all that are in WFR’s range can deal strong damage. Remember an argument back in their healing skill? That Sora have to all in her skill to heal? Well joke’s on WFR now because she’s the one all in her buff. Sora can buff anything in her range, no discrimination. That means she can buff Defenders, Supporters, Specialists, Medics while also buffing any DPS in her range. That results in the fact that you can now have a stronger heal output as well as the fact that you don’t have to ignore any low DPS allies in her range like WFR would. AND, the fact that Sora’s buff works better the lower your ally’s attack are. As a result of all those little tidbits, what Sora can do is to boost the effectiveness of everyone in her range, regardless of their role. Whereas, for WFR, because of the all-in nature of her buff, you’d almost want to boost a strong DPS instead, like, would you want to use WFR’s buff on a medic? (just for funsies I once full buff Perfumer and when her S2M3 is active she got about 78 HPS regen globally) Yes I M3'd Perfumer's S2
As for how long these buffs last, WFR’s only lasts 15s, whereas Sora’s lasts for double that. This may matter when their respective cooldown is different, as well as the talent that is functionally different as well. Because WFR’s talent always affect herself, it’s more reliable than Sora’s talent who only works 50% of the time. Their respective recharge rate would probably be hard to quantify, as one requires the luck of the draw, and one require enemies’ death. So Sora’s buff lasts twice as long as WFR’s, which could work better for a longer fight period, but if it’s a long fight period, there’s also the chance for WFR’s to reset her skill again with her talent, which means it's kinda a draw.
Let’s see, what else do we have… The rest are just small little advantages. Sora has more DEF and lower cost, which means she’s good for early physical ranged unit bait (or if you’re a madman like me, AF-5 and AF-8, or against stun snipers in OF, she can hold her ground quite fine). The smaller tidbits like Sora constantly heal regardless of any attack rate affliction mentioned earlier, which is fine against attack speed debuff and stuns, BUT, it also works against attack speed buffs (Angelina, Silence, Aak…), so you win some, you lose some.
There’s something quite important to note though, is that no dumbass actually M3 any of these 2 abilities, at least before they have a strong roster normally (the classic “DPS over Enablers” argument). So, how about we assume just normal skill level 7 instead? The only argument that would change is the buff damage and the break-even point after all. Assuming E1 Lv50, we’ll have WFR with only 60% ATK buff, and Sora with 90% of her ATK. From just that, you can already see a huge jump from SL7 to M3 for WFR’s buff, but barely any improvement for Sora’s, the only other improvement for Sora’s M3 is an additional 10s to her skill, which is quite a lot, from 20s at Lv7 to 30s at M3. With that said, the priority to M3 Sora’s skill is mainly to increase duration, not for more buff power. However, Sora at this level has 308 ATK, which translates to 277.2 ATK to allies. The breakpoint with WFR however, becomes 462 ATK. That raises the ceiling to those that Sora can buff better than WFR could by quite a margin, AND, it’s still 5s longer than WFR’s, AND, that's just for one person. What to draw from that is, Sora is really strong for boosting in the early game, with only a little bit of investment for both her and your other operators, as she is better the lower your allies' ATK are, while WFR is slower in the early game (except for the healing, which carried the argument again), but a far better ceiling cap in later parts of the game. But then again, in the early game, Sora will find it harder to win the "just bring another DPS" argument, so even if her buffs are better, her heals are worse, and the resources to get her to at least skill level 7 with a decent level can be put for another DPS and do the job at least equally to her.

Summary (?)

Anyway, here’s some conclusions. WFR wins the talent support, raw single target buff, stronger heal during buff, but all-in one-person buffing, and limited operators’ role in range. Sora has the stronger total buff the more people she buffs but the potency per person depends on their ATK value, less potent range, less utility outside of buff but no discriminating buff, work less effective than her counterpart when there’s more enemies you need to fight, or when RNGesus abandoned you. Sora can buff slightly better with lower investments (both herself and allies) but have lower ceiling cap. Again, it’s always important to note that the fact that WFR can fill 2 roles, Medic and Supporter, mainly carried her entire arguments against her opponent. Sora cannot solo heal any map, and therefore strictly limited her role to only Supporter, even if you use Sora’s S1, then she now has a strong heal, but with a terrible cooldown for a low duration, so it still can’t be used for solo healing. Her last usage of S1 is to stop the enemies, which WFR could never do. But then again, if Sora need her S1, then she can’t use her S2 to buff allies, while for WFR case, she can still use S2 and still have strong healing, as a result of how her skills works.

Anyway, how was this post? Hopefully nothing biased nor rigged…maybe. What's your takes/arguments on this, assuming only between them and not "just add another DPS"? I'll edit the post if it's a great argument that I glossed over or forgot about or just didn't know and then act like I totally knew it already. There could be a lot more for this type of post as well (Shamare vs Pramanix, etc.) though not anytime soon I guess.
As for my other writing series, I’m still thinking about a candidate for the next one, maybe between Glaucus, Platinum, Cliffheart, Skyfire(?), or Shirayuki I guess (I'm still trying to find Swire smh). A bit effy with things now as I need to escape unemployment, but I also need actual motivation (okay maybe poverty is a good motivation I guess). Hope to see you guys next week.
submitted by Windgesang_ to arknights [link] [comments]

Season 5 is Broken AF - Action is mandatory.

Where to even begin...(Yes, yes I know it needs to be "constructive criticism", and I add that where I can... but I am not one of the devs and am not viewing or editing the games programming so I cannot fairly be expected to give input in this regard).
TL:DR: Hackers are blatant and are without repercussions. Performance/stability issues for even those with very high end PC's are making the game unplayable. 'Aim assist' is effectively an in-built system of aim-botting that wholesale favors consoles, especially Xbox. Promenade Ground War is so unbalanced it needs to be removed. EOD and snapshot grenades are so unbalanced they need major changes. Common-sense spawn changes are needed for Headquarters game modes.
Edit: Remove PC ability to edit FOV.
Stick with me as this is going to be a bit lengthy. And, I'm sure many of you will find some of these points controversial (cool).
For those of you who will inevitably say 'dur dur cuz your PC is a potato' regarding performance problems:
X470 Gaming Pro Carbon motherboard
AMD Ryzen 7 2700X 8-Core @ 4.1 GHz
GeForce GTX 1080Ti
G.Skill Ripjaws V 2x 16GB DDR4-2666
Wired Ethernet connection w/ > 200 MB down and 15 MB up
All drivers and windows are up to date.

To start with the stuff I don't know how to fix (because I am not one of the devs with intimate knowledge of and influence on the programming):
Stuff that I can offer "constructive criticism" on:

While there are plenty of other potential quibbles, I think I've hit most of the major veins that must be fixed.
submitted by TheEveryEmpireFalls to modernwarfare [link] [comments]

Daytrader trying to fully understand margin

Day trading on margin. How does it work???
I have been day trading for some time in a cash account and I have been considering applying to upgrade to a margin account. I’ve been googling for the last few hours trying to find an answer to a specific margin question with a frustrating lack of resolution. Bear with me.
Let me first start by saying that I know what margin is and I fully understand the PDT rule. The answer that I am looking for is not an explanation of what they mean (which is all I got from google). I am trying to understand the effect of my buying power after having already completed a day trade.
I read somewhere that margin can cover all of my trade if, of course, I choose to use only margin and if I have the margin buying power to do so. I’m not sure if this is true and if it isn’t true, please someone let me know, but if it is true what is my buying power after my following example...
Hector is an active trader and he has an account with $25k cash and a 4:1 margin. So obviously $100k buying power. Hector buys 25 shares of ABC at $1,000 per share totaling $25,000 and he chooses to fund 100% of this purchase with margin. 30 minutes later he sells his position for $1,100 per share. A profit of $2,500. Later that day he spots another trade opportunity. What is his buying power for that second trade? Is it $75k because he already used $25k of his initial $100k buying power? Or is it still $100k because he didn’t use any of his actual cash to fund the original trade?
I’m sorry if this is a stupid question or asked in a very drawn out way but there seems to be no easy way to ask this.
submitted by Chance_The_Fapper69 to stocks [link] [comments]

Deutsche Bank - On the Brink of Insolvency

Deutsche Bank - On the Brink of Insolvency
On this week's edition of DDDD (Data-Driven DD; yes this is what I'm going to be calling this), we'll be looking at Deutsche Bank. Once one of the largest banks in the world, it's now a shell of its former self after the 2008 financial crisis.
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
A Brief History of Deutsche Bank (and Deutschland)
Let’s first start with some background around Deutsche Bank, because it has some very interesting history behind it. In particular, it’s somehow taken part in causing some of the worst crises and scandals in world and economic history ever since its founding in 1870. Here’s a brief timeline:
  • Founded in Berlin in 1870 with the original mission to facilitate trade between Germany and foreign nations
  • Rapidly expanded overseas in the late 1800s, opening branches in London, Shanghai, and South America
  • Financed the Holocaust in the 1930s, including the construction of the Auschwitz concentration camp and the Gestapo
  • Broken up to 10 smaller banks after Germany’s defeat in WWII by the Allies, but those banks later merged back together less than 10 years later
  • Acquired a bunch of overseas banks, including banks in the UK and the US, during the 80s and 90s, growing to become one of the largest money management firms in the world
  • Drove the market for CDOs in 2007 and even created CDOs consisting of their bad subprime mortgages, somehow got an A-level rating on them from the rating agencies, and aggressively marketed the CDOs to investors while knowing that their CDOs were shit. Their head of CDO trading, Greg Lippmann, knew about this and told everyone that CDOs were effectively a Ponzi scheme, even shorting CDOs himself through Credit Default Swaps. He then went around to different funds in Wall Street and told them that CDOs were going to collapse and sold them Credit Default Swaps as a way to short the CDO market, creating synthetic CDOs, the asset on the other side of that trade, with them to sell to other investors. This entire scheme was the inspiration for The Big Short, in case you didn’t realize this by now.
  • Also the bank that finances businesses of the current President, which might be worth considering for political motives / implications if something bad happens to Deutsche Bank
  • Today, they focus on Corporate Banking, Investment Banking, Private Banking, and Asset Management
Let’s see how $DB’s performance has been the past few years
$DB, 2002-2020, Monthly
Yikes, it went from an all time high of $140 in 2007 to $6 today in 2020. In terms of their market cap, it went from $70B from its 2007 peak to $13B today. So, what happened? Let’s look at their 2019 SEC annual filing.
10-K Deep Dive
Income Statement (omitted boring parts)
Revenue € 22.4B (Net Interest = 13.7B, Credit Losses = -723M, Commission & Feed = 9.5B)
Expenses € 25.1B (mostly Compensation and G&A)
Net income after taxes €-5.3B (includes 2.6B of losses from taxes)
From their interest income, 19% comes from Corporate Banking, 39% from Investment Banking, 30% from Private Banking, and the rest comes from some other various operations.
So in a good year, in a period of “high” interest rates in the US (at least relative to the past decade), Deutsche Bank is still somehow losing billions. In fact, it states that their slight 4% YoY increase in net revenue income was driven by the fact that the US had a more favorable interest rate environment during that year, and their reduction of deposits in Germany, where they were experiencing negative interest rates.
German Interbank Rates
Negative interest rates mean that banks need to pay the central bank to safely store their reserves with them, making it really hard to make a profit for banks. Luckily they had the relatively high interest rates of the US to make up for it in 2019. With interest rates cut to 0% again, this will be a very different story for 2020, and they’ll likely see even larger losses for this year.
Balance Sheet (omitted boring parts)
Assets € 1.3T
Cash & Central Bank Deposits € 147B
Financial Assets € 531B (Trading Assets - €110B, Derivatives with a positive value - € 333B)
Loans € 430B
Liabilities € 1.2T
Deposits € 572B
Financial Liabilities € 404B (Trading Liabilities - € 37B, Derivatives with a negative value - € 317B)
Long Term Debt € 136B
Equity € 62B
So there’s a few very interesting things here. First, is the fact that their book value is €62B, or $67B USD, giving them a leverage of 26, which is way higher than literally every bank in the United States.
Top 100 US banks, sorted by leverage
What does a bank leverage ratio mean? It’s a quick way to see how well capitalized a bank is, and its ability to withstand negative shocks to its balance sheets without becoming insolvent. It’s harder to think of a more severe shock to the economic systems and people’s ability to pay back loans than a complete worldwide lockdown.
Another thing fishy with their book value is that their market cap is sitting at 13B USD. Even in January, before the stock market crashed it was sitting at 17B USD. That’s a big red flag, because theoretically if Deutsche Bank’s assets were all liquidated today, investors should theoretically be left with €62B, or $38 per share, which is way higher than the stock’s current $6 share price. This should especially be easy because the vast majority of their balance sheet consists of liquid assets or assets that should be easy to liquidate… or are they?
Derivatives
Let’s take a closer look at their derivatives. In their annual statement, they mentioned that they were trying to discontinue their derivatives business, which already helped cause one banking crisis a decade ago. They restructured and put all their “bad” capital, like their derivatives, in its own entity, called the “Capital Release Unit”, with the goal of liquidating these assets to release capital and de-leverage themselves. In 2019, their Capital Release Unit lost a total of €3.9B and held the €333B of derivatives. It also looks like they’re doing a bad job of releasing this specific class of capital, because their derivative assets and liabilities actually increased since 2018. That’s because a lot of these derivatives are not traded in exchanges, but instead over-the-counter with parties that have an ISDA agreement. As anyone who’s watched The Big Short can tell you (so literally everyone else on this subreddit), these OTC derivatives tend to be illiquid and difficult to value due to lack of price discovery.
This is why Deutsche Bank’s book value is more than their market cap, even before COVID-19. There’s doubt as to what some of the OTC derivatives are actually worth. They have a book value of €62B with derivatives supposedly valued at €333B, meaning if the actual net value of these derivatives are 19% or more lower than what they say they are, they become insolvent. This is the bank equivalent of buying SPY puts on margin in Robinhood (yes I know you can’t do that), but not knowing how much your puts are worth until you try selling. If you were like most of wallstreetbets you probably bought SPY puts when SPY was at 220. You know if you tried to sell your puts you might find out that they’re now worth a lot less than you originally bought them for (in the case of OTC derivatives, they can actually have a negative value!), realizing your portfolio value (equity) is below zero and you get a margin call (insolvent). In fact, they’ve allegedly done something similar in 2008 by failing to recognize losses related to the explosion of super senior tranches of CDOs, which may have led to joining Lehman Brothers in the bank graveyard if they did.
Let’s take a closer look at these derivatives, specifically the ones that mature in 2020.
Derivatives maturing in 2020 by nominal value
Type Bilateral Central Counterparty Exchange Traded
Interest €2.5T €8.7T €4T
Currency €4.3T €95B €17B
Equity €98B 0 €184B
Credit €39B €63B 0
Commodity €2.7B 0 €31.9B
First a few things to clarify. Bilateral Clearing is an agreement between some party with an ISDA agreement with the bank, where the bank acts as the counterparty to the derivative being sold. Central Counterparty Clearing is when an institution facilitates an OTC derivative transaction by ensuring both sides of the transaction are financially sound enough and have enough collateral to not default on the derivative, and if any party defaults on the derivative, the central counterparty is now financially responsible for their side of the trade. This was put into place after 2008 when the risk of counterparties like AIG defaulting on credit default swaps became a huge systematic problem.
Also, a nominal value is different from a derivative’s actual price. For example, if you bought a SPY 4/20 220p, the nominal value of your derivative is $22000 (100 shares * $220 per share) but the actual value of your put is $0.
We know that since Dec 2019
  • Interest rates got cut all around the world
  • Currencies exchange rates have dramatically changed since December with oil-exporting countries. For example USD / CAD went from $1.30 to $1.42 during this time period
  • Equity values exploded, even with the bull run we’re currently in
  • A lot of BBB-rated companies got downgraded, and we might see defaults come in, even with the Fed buying bonds
  • Oil is fucked
These recent events will probably change the valuation of these derivatives by a lot, some of which are going to be realized on their balance sheets immediately (eg. exchange traded derivatives) because their valuations can easily be calculated. The key here is that the net losses needs to be below €62B or they become insolvent.
Now, we’re in the age of too-big-to-fail businesses and the US government and Fed bailing out everyone, which is a real risk of taking a short position against $DB, especially considering how connected they are with other US financial institutions by acting as the counterparty or the central counterparty clearing house to many derivatives that they hold. If Deutsche Bank goes under, a lot of other financial institutions are going to have problems. The problem with Deutsche Bank is that it is not a US company and can’t be hence bailed out by the US government. In fact, they weren’t eligible for TARP, the last government-funded bank bailout back in 2008, which is partially why they’ve been a financial mess ever since.
Their Q1 earnings call is on April 29, so we’ll find out how much trouble they are then.
TLDR; DB 5p 10/16
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

This rally is a mirage, we are only in the beginning stages of this recession

TL;DR at the bottom
Hi guys, with the market rallying 20% from its "bottom", many people are expressing the sentiment that we should buy back into the market again because the "fed" or the "government" won't allow stocks to crash.
We will for sure see unprecedented actions taken by the fed and the government because they have both the motive and the political capital to enact such policies. However, I think this is a misguided reason to believe the market is currently making its "real" rally.
I am not not a permabear nor am I a permabull. I just try to objectively analyze the facts, apply a healthy dose of margin of safety, and then see if my conclusions are actionable.
For example, I posted my thesis on why we will enter a serious global economic downturn on Feb 9th 10 days before it happened. At the time we were at the height of the biggest bull market in our history, and I had gotten a lot of attacks on my thesis leading up to me consolidating my thoughts:
https://www.reddit.com/China_Flu/comments/f1fm6y/the_world_economy_will_enter_a_serious_downturn/
I continued adding more thoughts on things like the potential efficacy of Chloroquine 2 weeks before Trump announced it in a press conference and the media picked up on it, the potential collapse of American oil producers before the price war happened, casinos going under, helicopter money, bailouts, etc all before they were announced or the markets priced them in here:
https://www.reddit.com/China_Flu/comments/fede69/continued_thoughts_on_the_global_economic_impact/
And finally I talked about an upcoming inflection point coincidentally moments before Trump first announced Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine and 2 trading days before the "bottom" of the market:
https://www.reddit.com/stocks/comments/fleh7e/incoming_inflection_point_for_general_market/
So I'm perfectly happy to make bearish calls or bullish calls, they are dependent variables of independent and unbiased analysis. I hope I made a reasonable case for why I am not personally biased (although, for the sake of humanity, I do wish for progress and prosperity of course).
I think the market rally is largely a mirage, and we are not getting correct pricings. The rally is probably driven by two main sources:
So the capital displacement is relatively simple: If you're seeking shelter in "risk free" investments that has some yields, you're now competing with a buyer (federal reserve) that prints hundreds of billions up to whatever it wants. They're literally squeezing out capital from the finite treasuries.
If you want riskier high quality corporate bonds, the fed will be there.
If you want even equities, you're going to face competition for them in the future. At least that's what former chairwoman Jenet Yellen recently said about the possibility of expanding their powers to buy equities.
So money is getting squeezed into a smaller and smaller relative portion of the financial markets, and the artificial demand is driving yields down and prices up. I could write a whole thread about this, but let's stick with the explanation of price movement.
The second main reason for the recent rally is from institutional investors who are incorrectly modeling earnings/yield of equities. So the logic here is: trillions are injected into the economy (fiscal injections), those trillions will become earnings for companies at some multiplier of the original stimulus over x amount of time, and if we add this number to the unstimulated estimated earnings, we can model future earnings.
My issue with this model, is on two main assumptions:
The first assumption is the length of disruption caused by the threat of this virus.
This virus is not going to stop its serious disruption of behavior from economic actors. Especially not in a country like the US where the majority of people have a massive financial disincentive to seek out healthcare. Here's my logic:
For months I've been praising the governments and response of South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. With Taiwan being the absolute best at handling the virus. However, I have also been using them as my leading indicators for how the virus will progress and affect economic actors. What I have seen developing lately is not good.
Singapore is now calling for a shutdown, after they initially did a herculean job of containing their outbreak. I had hoped that they would develop procedures (that we can copy) needed to run an open economy while the threat of the virus looms in the background. But that is not what has happened. Instead, we are seeing growing numbers of new clusters forming, and quickly getting out of control. They are tightening and shutting down their economy rather than opening up more. This is our leading indicator. A government far more responsible and effective than us is resorting to shutting down.
Taiwan is faring better, but only because of their prohibitive ban on almost all foreign travelers (this is obviously devastating to their tourism sector and broader economy). Their economy and society remains open, with many if not most people having hardly any interruptions to their lives (aside from mask wearing). They are one of only 3 countries where all children are still going to school. However, even their economy is faltering as they try to balance the prohibitive actions needed to contain the virus and the economic need to keep things open. They are proposing an unprecedented stimulus/rescue package to bolster their economy. And I think it's a safe assumption that if they ever do open up to foreign travelers again, especially with covid19 having proliferated as it already has, then they will have to deal with massive outbreak clusters all over their island.
South Korea, which has probably the relatable and relevant model for us to copy, has recently extended its social distance campaign. South Korea is a far larger nation than Singapore or Taiwan. They have a climate similar to Seattle/New York. They had a major outbreak in Deagu but didn't shut their country down. They never even banned Chinese travelers, yes, they had Chinese tourists in their country while the outbreak was happening. They were among the first to widely use Hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine as a treatment for Covid19. They had among the lowest fatality rates. They contained their outbreak without shutting the whole country down.
Even South Korea can't truly return to normal and open their economy up.
So why, in our incredible American exceptionalism hubris, and far less competent leaders, do we believe we're going to come anywhere close to normalcy in the near future?
Let's look at the next assumption, that fiscal stimulus would end up as earnings for companies. There's no doubt some will end up as earnings, but only a small fraction of what is being modeled by those on Wall Street.
The average American don't even have $1000 in emergency funds, do we expect them to return to their normal consumption habits when they risk having hospital bills multiples of $1000 just from walking past the wrong person? Do you think Americans, as much as they love to spend, aren't going to put some of that stimulus check in their emergency funds rather than contribute it to the earning of some companies? Sure, there will be some "forced" spending of the money (food and necessities), but if anyone is modeling the multiplier effect from previous data, then they really don't appreciate how different this virus makes things. Even in the GFC, laid off people didn't really worry about the heightened threat of being hospitalized.
Finally, some investors believe the Fed and the government literally will do anything to keep the numbers up. If this is true, you should be buying silver (or gold), not stocks.
Monetary actions can be reversed relatively easily. They are far more dynamic tools. Fiscal actions are not. You put money in the hands of spenders, that money is gonna circulate. And you really don't have an easy way of reversing that. If we think the government is going to keep handing out stimulus checks, grants to businesses, and other fiscal stimulus, then the inflation predicted from the GFC will come true for this crisis.
The fall out of inflation will be difficult to truly understand. But I do think inflation will be disruptive enough to the economy that inflation hedge assets will outperform other assets at least in the short term. For example, if inflation goes to 5%, who's going to lend to companies for less than inflation? With costlier debt, equity yield goes down, and again, what investor wants yields less than inflation? Inflation is going to cause all kinds of disruptions. I think the disruptions will come down to less liquidity (credit will vanish with uncertain inflation) and higher economic friction (less efficiency).
So if the response to why the market has to go up is continuous fiscal (and some monetary) actions to prop up spending and earnings, then the question is how will fiscal actions be reversed? How do we get that money out after things go back to "normal"?
I think if we see equities rise from here, it'll be reflective of inflation rather than inflation-adjusted earnings. Silver would be the play here.
I have a lot more thoughts on this, especially on the time it takes to turn the gears of the financial system and why the inertia is moving us deeper into global recession, not out of it, but I'm running out of time and must end here.
TL;DR this is a fake rally, and if anyone really expects prices to continue rallying, buy silver instead
submitted by Starcraftduder to stocks [link] [comments]

The Featherlight Transmission, Ch. 26

I step through a door and wind up back in my apartment somehow. The Librarian must have matched the exit he showed me with my bathroom. Maybe he was trying to be funny. I’m gonna stop thinking about it now though, because the door I opened doesn’t even open in the same direction as the one that just closed behind me and I’m pretty sure I’ll short circuit if I try to figure it out.
Once my body enters my dingy concrete-y abode, it falls over and immediately tries to die. Or live very aggressively, I can’t tell which.
My heartbeat fires like a diesel engine, like a flock of sick hummingbirds, like it’s going to crack my sternum and escape someplace where it doesn’t have to deal with this shit. All my muscles are on fire, like they’re being hauled between two bulls charging in opposite directions. My brain aaaaaaauuugggggghhghhghhhnnnnnnn nnnnnnngragjbgggghghgghhaaaaaaaaaaghghgrualghih74lihwt4i5aey5anhal3irasg8
I just lie on the floor, curled in a quivering ball like a scared 800-pound kitten, and wait for it to stop. Time flies apart and loses its meaning. At some point an important and rarely-used part of my brain comes back online and orders a trickle of extra vitae be run through my system, because that generally does something when I’m hurt and fuck does this hurt. It helps a little. I think. At this point I think it’s like trying to use an aspirin pill against an incoming sledgehammer, but it’s better than nothing.
At some point I feel like I can get my feet under me again, and that’s great, because it restores my ability to get over to the toilet and puke, which I’ve wanted to do very badly for… three hundred years at this point? It doesn’t matter. Once that’s done I just go back to lying on the floor. The stone tiles on my bathroom floor are very cool and reassuring. They are my only friends in this new reality of nausea and paralyzing agony I’ve found myself in. I start counting them, both to distract myself and to check that my brain actually still works. It’s a testament to my focus that I can do this with my medical software shrieking and screaming and flashing red alarm lights in my face the entire time.
After a long, long time spent whimpering and shaking in the dark, I feel more or less like myself again. My heart comes down, my guts stop washing back and forth, my head turns around from its dedicated trip to the stratosphere. This is a marginal improvement over being the embodiment of human illness and suffering. That was like food poisoning, a hellfire hangover, running 20 miles, electroshock torture, and nine days of sleep deprivation all at the same time. I’d rather hang a hammock off a Wellwarden’s back and live there than ever go through that again.
I get in the shower and brush my teeth. I’m not entirely sure why, other than these are normal things to do and I would like an order of normal with some hot running water on the side right now please.
My guess is that the human (or human-adjacent) body fucking hates what the Library does to it. I guess that kind of makes sense. I’m not a doctor, but having every one of your metabolic processes completely halted can’t be good for them. They’re kind of not supposed to ever stop.
Actually… was I dead? I guess I was, from a certain perspective. Let me tell you, folks - if it’s ever offered to you, maybe think twice before you opt for resurrection. I’ve done it and it is just absolutely awful. You’re probably better off without it.
I get out and put new clothes on, then check the time, because honestly it could be the dawn of the next century by now and I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest.
01:02. One in the morning. That doesn’t… No, that can’t be right. Maybe the power grid skipped while I was out. I tap my data engine awake to see what it has to say on the matter. It reports the same. One in the morning.
My internal clock reads 16:08. I was only down there for a few fucking hours.
Fucking stone on a riverbank my ass. Of course there’s a time differential between the Library and the rest of reality. There’s more than enough spatial differentials, why wouldn’t there be? Fuck. It’s a good thing I did what I did and got out quick. If I’d taken my time, time would have taken me on one hell of a ride. If the ratio holds steady, a few days in there and you’d probably come out in the middle of next month. Old bastard probably doesn’t even think about time the way the rest of us do anymore. Im surprised he even speaks the same language as me.
Speaking of which…
Hm. One in the morning. I’m not even close to tired, so I’ll take the next sleep train. The city’s dozing, sinking into syrupy, half-remembered dreams. Good time to slither down into the Subterrane and see if I can find Littlerock’s place. Hopefully come back up with something useful before dawn.
I take the mechanical kitten out of my coat pocket. It mews at me, tilting its head a little and regarding me with eyes full of molten arcane light. I put it down on my bed to see what it does. It circles once and sits down, tail around its feet, still looking at me.
“If I leave, will you stay here?”
It doesn’t reply with words, which is great, because that would be more perfect blood terror than I have time for at the moment. Instead it makes another metallic kitten noise and lies down on its forepaws, still looking at me.
“I’ll take that as a yes. Don’t eject any plasmic discharge on my laundry or anything. And if anyone except me tries to come in, destroy them with the might of your ancient forebears.”
There’s no response, but I feel like we’re on the same wavelength. Next unlucky motherfucker who steps in here without my say-so is getting a faceful of magical kitten death laser. I’ve never been this confident of anything in my life.
I probably don’t need to take the sword down there with me, but it could come in handy for scaring away any Lowlifes that decide to get cute. But it’s not going to fit on my back with my vitae tanks taking up space back there, so I re-rig them, hanging a tank on either hip. Makes it slightly easier for someone to fuck with them, but at least I’ll be able to see it happen if they do. I cinch the big weapon on. If anyone tries to fuck with me about it, I’ll lead them on a chase over to Rimegold Manor. Everyone knows Teltanigan Rimegold has a suit of dragonhide armor on display in one of his parlors. If that’s not illegal, then this isn’t.
A few more lollipops in my pocket. I’m starting to run out again. Which is sad, because the money ran out first. I might have to pick up smoking again. It’s cheaper and makes you look like you’ve got gravitas. Yellow teeth are very… gravitic.
Out into the cistern, and the cool desert night. Almost room temperature out here now. Winter. We might even get some rain soon, if the southern swamps will let us borrow. I take a big, greedy breath - night air. So loaded with that strange dark potential that you could drink it. I can hear the city breathing with me.
The bartender with the neck like a thigh said that Littlerock camps out underneath the border between Eight and Thirteen. Sunken bank vault. For a Lowlife, that’s basically a castle. There’s no way he’d be able to defend that kind of primo territory without his fire backing him up.
It’s a bit away, so I’m going to have to take the train. It ends up not being a big deal - platforms are mostly empty this late at night. I’m the only guy around at the train square, aside from some starlight shifters having a smoke outside of one of the plants. They nod at me when they see me, in that single upward head tilt way big men do. Night workers have a bit of that old beast in them, that ancient inner being that only comes awake out of love for the moon and stars. And beasts understand one another, even if they’ve never met. Everyone’s equal in the dark. I nod back, and get on my train to Thirteen.
While the rooftops and creaking, cooling streets wash past below my feet, I get my brain ready for going underground.
I don’t spend a lot of time in the Subterrane. Most people don’t. There aren’t many reasons to. The Lowlifes are only there because they feel they have to be, and the rest are just visitors that only ever have a handful of explanations for why they’d risk their lives like that. Because it is a risk, see. There’s a chance every time you go down beneath the earth that you’re not going to come back. And the strange thing is: I think people know that. And not only does it not stop them, I think it might be the main reason they keep on doing it.
The Subterrane is like a trap. A morsel at the bottom of a smooth unclimbable shaft. Not everyone is going to be hungry enough to think they can get down there, grab it, and come back up. But some people are. They have been for hundreds of years - spelunking down into the millennia-old ruins beneath the city has been a past time since there was a city at all. Some lucky few find something amazing and strike it big. Others come back with nothing but less money and time. And still others just don’t come back - slipped and fell down the throat of the earth.
It’s treacherous down there. Water eating away at the rocks. Human troglodytes that stopped seeing their fellows as anything other than a meal or a payday. Darkness. And, if you listen to people like Delpo… other things. Things that reject explanation as much as they’ve rejected the sun. I’ve even heard from some shiny-heads that it might not even be things at all - that the space itself is hostile. Something about the buildup of old magic, or something to do with the Wall, or some other mysterious force. Something that twists the ways, moves the earthen bowels around you without moving you at all. You go down one passage and hit a dead end, try to go back - but now there’s a dead end behind you too. Wander down a long passage that’s supposed to link to something else, but never does, so you end up walking and walking until time comes to collect. Come across an incredible ruin, a beautiful sunken cathedral of gleaming stone and light, untouched by time and ripe for exploration - but when you come back to prove what you saw, it’s not there anymore.
That and more, depending on who you talk to.
I’ve never seen anything life-changing down there, but I’m also not a cave cricket. I really only go to meet the Consortium, and they never convene further down than the first level. That’s Lowlife territory, and they live there just fine, for a certain definition of “live”. If they were being preyed on by scary cave monsters all the time you think someone would have noticed. Probably.
I get off the train in Thirteen, and gird myself for the mood shift. The rest of the city might be asleep, but Thirteen is where it dreams. Neon light spray all over the place like spilled paint, rust and concrete stalls being patronized, crowds of people bouncing from bar to bar, looking for whatever’s next. I don’t get so much as a glance from any of these wide-eyed moonwalkers, sword or no. You need a weirdness differential in order for there to be a realization, and no one around here is normal enough for me to stand out. A guy over there just set his head on fire. The crowd around him whoops and applauds. A woman in scintillating lightshow coattails removes her top hat and bows to her audience, as a rainbow flock of trained glow-in-the-dark lizardhawks swirls and swoops around her in dazzling formations. A freelance gene artist showing off her wares. Those laser light birds are definitely for sale, and they’re definitely cheaper than it seems like they should be, because they’ll only live for a couple weeks.
I find an alley with only a handful of lurkers in it and get my bearings. My nose twitches. I know that smell. The ghouls size me up through the haze of the halluco they’re smoking, but either judge that an unusually large patch of rainbow patterns isn’t a threat considering what the rest of the world looks like at the moment, or that I’m too big to shake down. I love psychedelics. Not much of an indulger myself, just a tab now and then for the funsies when I can afford it, but they have a way of taking the scramble out of someone’s breakfast, and as a man of peace I appreciate that. Why fight when you can sip chemicaff and look at the pretty colors? They’re so pretty!
Shit. I can’t remember where the nearest way down is. I can’t even remember if I’ve ever gone underground from Thirteen before.
I look over at the three guys. Their eyes are stuck to me like flies on paper. I’m either really beautiful or their hypothalamuses have been piledriven so deep into fight or flight that they’re trying to do both at once and their muscles are just throwing errors at one another until one side gives up.
“Hey.”
They don’t move. One of the guys, the one on the right, actually starts drooling.
I take a step forward and snap my fingers in their faces. I’m a big guy with big hand muscles - my snaps are like little gunshots.
The middle one goes “Aaaah!” and throws his hands in front of his face like I’m going to hit him. The one on the left falls backwards on his ass. The one on the right keeps drooling like nothing happened at all.
I take the guy’s wrists between my thumbs and forefingers, and lower them to his sides manually. He’s still scared. I smile reassuringly. He shouts and raises his hands up in front of his face again. I sigh and lever them back down.
“Buddy. Relax. I’m not gonna hurt you. I just want to know the way downstairs, is all.”
He looks like he’s going to short-circuit. The halluco on the streets these days must be way stronger than the stuff I smoked as a kid.
“D-downstairs?”
“Yeah. The Subterrane. Can you point me in the right direction?”
His eyes widen. “Oh my god. You’re from there. You’re trying to go home. Before the sun comes up and you melt.”
I blink.
“Yep, got it in one, bub. Nobody wants to melt. My birthday’s right around the corner, and no one wants to give presents to a puddle. Help a guy out, huh?
He nods, eyes wide as teacups. “Yeah. Yeah. You, uh. You go that way,” he points behind him and to the left, “then right on 77th. For a few blocks, like… four. Then an alley on your left. There’s a maintenance hatch that goes down. One of the double-door ones.”
I pat him on the head gently. “Thanks, buddy. When we rise up, I’ll tell my friends you’re one of the good ones.” I take a lollipop out of my pocket, tuck it behind his ear, and stride past him.
Behind me, he says, “Happy birthday!”
To my surprise, his information is good, even through a solid wall of Rainbow D-Lite™. Above the recessed double metal hatches, there’s a sign scratched onto the bricks. Looks fresh. First is a symbol that looks like a fang, then a big X, then kind of a cartoon necktie-looking shape.
This means this area, both above and belowground including this access point, is contested territory. It originally belonged to the Fangs, but the Grandsons are coming in to try and take it away from them.
Fuck. Fucking double fuck with a lemon twist.
This doesn’t mean I can’t use this tunnel, necessarily. It just means I’m going to have to be extra triple sneaky about it, because there is a very high chance that I’ll be attacked if I do.
Allow me to briefly explain.
The Fangs are a gang. You probably figured that out already. And they’re awful - infamous for not bothering with that whole ‘honor among thieves’ concept. The worst of the worst. They’ll trade in anything, kill anyone, do anything for a payday, or just for a little endorphin squirt. They’re complete animals. Jith Landup was a Fang. Strake’s old business was initially funded and thoroughly patronized by the Fangs. I’m not really a violent guy, I don’t haul off, but… let’s just say back in the day I treated Fang screams like collectible trading cards.
Everyone hates them, including other gangs. Even the fucking Thunderbolts think the Fangs take shit too far, and their leader is basically a hedonism elemental. But they’ve got the Lowlifes in their pocket - most Lowlifes miss a sense of community, and the Fangs aren’t choosy enough to turn them away. The Fangs probably remember me from back in the day, and I can guarantee there isn’t any love lost between us. I’m pretty sure the only reason they haven’t come after me is because I’m in debt to Electrofuck and I talk to Deepwell too regularly.
The Grandsons are… sort of the exact opposite of the Fangs. They hate the Fangs more than basically anyone else - the blood feud between these two clans is the stuff of legend at this point. They’ve been at war for years now. They’re also one of the only reasons the Fangs don’t make headline news every week. One of the main reasons for this is that there are very, very few slabs in the Fangs, if any at all. There aren’t that many slabs in any gang, aside from the Grandsons. This is because the Grandsons are a slab gang. The only slab gang.
They’re not the largest gang in the city in terms of numbers, but they don’t need to be - all their members are literally three times the size of a normal person. There used to be more slab gangs out there, but Grandpa unified (“unification” here mostly meaning a lot of curb-stomping and neck snapping) them a couple decades ago with a revolutionary new concept - slab supremacy. Grandpa mythologized himself with a lot of rhetoric about how slabs are just as oppressed as mages are (they’re not) and how important it is that they all gather together to resist, and undermine, the society that’s been keeping them down. Most slabs being in the mental state that they are, having been treated the way they are, it wasn’t really a tough sell.
No one’s really sure where Grandpa came from or much about him at all, really, other than he’s supposed to be the oldest slab in the city. Knowing our usual lifespan, that means he’s probably somewhere in his mid-fifties. He’s a consummate gentleman, highly intelligent, and totally fucking ruthless to anyone who stands between him and what he wants. He’s a megalomaniacal drug-peddling control freak, but he does have standards, to an extent, and he hates the Fangs, even though you’d never catch him admitting it. They’re lawless, directionless, debased, and bestial - everything Grandpa despises.
You may be wondering how I know all this. Well, I’ve met Grandpa, face-to-face, a while back. So, as you’ve probably guessed, he and his whole gang hate my guts. Not to the point of attacking me in the street or anything - Grandpa doesn’t play that way. But definitely to the point of not doing me any favors, up to and including giving me immunity if I show up in contested territory.
Yes. I’m in it with three different gangs. Four if you count the Consortium, and five if you count the Watch. I’m a mage and a slab - I can’t exactly park my oversized ass behind a desk and be an accountant or a cook or whatever. It’s either intrigue or death.
I could just go find another way down. But that could be literal miles away, and I’m not keen on wasting more time. People are missing. If I can figure out where Littlerock went, maybe he knows where Horsebreaker is. And I can give those people their fucking son back. And maybe prevent a minor totalitarian crackdown upon my friends. Maybe.
Honestly, at this point, if any gangsters want to stand between me and a resolution to all this, they’d better have a reinforced skeleton and a whole lot of moxie.
I lever the dark metal doors open, and slip under the skin of the city.
Looks like we’ve got a long ladder going down this time. Some kind of old maintenance shaft. My night vision reveals nothing waiting for me at the bottom, so I concentrate on my grip and make my way down.
The ladder stops at a metal platform in a room that probably used to house water equipment of some kind. I can see some familiar brackets on the ground where pumps might’ve been mounted. But they’re gone, and so is a pretty significant portion of the north wall. Metal torn right in, looks like from the outside. Not recent, some long-done act of illegal excavation. These diggers sure know how to get creative - you’re not getting through this much steel paneling and concrete without expertly-placed explosives.
Through the breach is a normal-looking Subterrane tunnel - hastily dug, not visibly reinforced. Like something an oversized mole would make.
Before I go, I look around for signs of recent activity. If this is contested territory, there’s no way this entry point isn’t being watched or at least patrolled. Hmm. A length of old high-voltage wiring here, which I roll up and put right in my coat pocket, thank you very much. I’m shocked everyone’s just walked right past this, it’s gotta be worth at least a few thousand credits in copper salvage. These gangsters just don’t know how to scrape anymore, I’m tellin’ ya.
Some grime. Scratch that, plenty of grime. If you set off an industrial solvent bomb in here I think the room would just disappear. Looks like greasy soot - maybe a fire led to the original abandonment. Some shit. Not a lot, and old. My guess is a stray venalid marking its territory. And… a-ha. What have we here? Over by the ladder, looks like a… yep, we got a butt here. I kneel to get a closer look.
Easy to tell who left this - it’s huge. Slab cigar. Just the very end, but I can tell from a very small amount of remaining purple wrapping paper it was a Sunset Royal - expensive Valtean tobacco. They came out with a line of slab-specific products a few years ago after detecting a hole in the market, and they’ve been making bank ever since. Not with normal civilians obviously - your average slab can’t afford these. The Grandsons aren’t average, though. Grandpa ensures that his boys get to enjoy the finer things.
Thoroughly chewed. And still damp. Whoever left this came through not long ago. My guess is that it was tossed before going deeper into the dark, as a glowing red cigar is a great way to tell your hiding enemies exactly where your head is. They might even still be down there.
So, chances are the Grandsons have taken this tunnel already. That’s unfortunate. They might be slightly more willing to listen to reason than the Fangs are, but nowhere near as easy to intimidate. Or beat up. Because I’m having to pick on someone my own size for once. If there’s one thing I hate, it’s an even playing field.
I start down the tunnel, moving as silently as I possibly can. My size and weight kind of throw a wrench in any cat burglar aspirations, but if I shut off my lamps and go infrared, I’ve got a major advantage in the dark.
Still can’t hear shit, though. If I had the cash an aural amplifier would be the first damn thing on my shopping list. They’re expensive, but you have no idea how useful super listening would be in my various lines of work. That’s how the cybernetics industry gets you, see? Every cyborg’s a fucking addict. Once you get one, you want the rest.
Even without special computer ears, these guys up ahead aren’t making it tough for me. I come to a bend in the tunnel, and some distance past it there are voices. Can’t exactly make out what they’re saying, but they’re not trying to be sneaky. They’re too far away for me to feel their vitae, but there’s at least two. I’ll have to round the corner to know more. Ugh. A remote camera drone would sure come in fucking handy here, too. I don’t do enough stealth ops to be reminded of how embarrassing and pitiful my implants are.
Keeping as low as I can, I advance, ready for anything. The tunnel curves gently off to the right and I stay as near to the wall as possible. After a while my knees feel like someone replaced all my joint fluid with iron filings, and you could fucking toast a sandwich on my thigh muscles. This why the Surgeons are so good at what they do - you need regular medical reassembly to do this sneaky shit all the damn time.
Then I come into magic range and I stop to get a better look.

[you can find the first chapter back here. the rest of the chapters you can find under my reddit profile or down there in the comments, gathered by the helpful robot. and if you think my work is worth it, why not help me out with a tip? if you haven't done your one good deed for the day, here's your chance ♥]
[and thanks for reading ♥]
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Margin Trading Trading Terms - YouTube

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