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Disclaimer : I'm not a tax attorney or CPA, I trade from my mom's basement and my day job is handing out flyers while wearing a hotdog costume.submitted by indonesian_activist to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Previous Post https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ia18vv/prpl_lousyand_kind_of_shady_tax_receivable/
Right since wsb like small caps now, let's take a moment to learn about public companies with Umbrella Partnership C Corporation (UP-C) IPO structure. This won't actually give you any trading edge whatsoever, but will help you to lose money more slowly or flatten the loss porn curve shall we say. PRPL went public by a reverse merger with a shell company but ended up having pretty much the same corporate structure as a typical UP-C IPO.
We will compare last week favourite meme stock PRPL with other small caps PLC that also have UP-C structure. I couldn't do it with sector peers because none of TPX, SNBR and CSPR have it.
TRA and UP-C started in early 2000s have been gaining popularity since.
Despite it's name, Tax Receivable Agreement (TRA) functions mostly as a way for pre-IPO owners to siphon cash from public companies. There are plenty of other ways for a public company to get step up basis on tax without TRA, it's just the only one that siphon cash back to the pre-IPO owners. It has always been somewhat controversial and challenged many times, several legislation was introduced but on all occasions congress chose not to pass it.
Now a UP-C IPO is when the income generating company is actually a LLC or partnership. in PRPL case this is Purple LLC. It's basically a clever way for the pre-IPO shareholders/partners to retain pass trough treatment of income and to avoid double taxation (corporate and shareholder level). Here's a small diagram of what it looks like
This UP-C structure have added inherent risk for public shareholders such as
For PRPL, Purple LLC would be the original partnership and PubCo would be Purple Innovation PLC. Also similar is the class A and Class B stocks. Class B which are retained by the original partners exchangeable to Class A stock. When they actually exchange/sell the class B stock into Class A, on a typical UP-C this will trigger a step up basis under TRA(Tax Receivable Agreement).
So when the partners of the partnership sell, they not only get the proceeds but also a amortizable tax deductions from goodwill. Example of a simplified case; if the pre-IPO value is 10$ and current stock price is 30, the basis step up would be 20$ x amount of shares sold booked as liability in the public company. Say Partner X exchange and sells 1 million of class B stock in the market, besides getting 30 MM USD, he will also get a certain percentage of the step up basis (usually 80%) or about 20 MM USD * 0.8 = 16 MM USD. This 16 MM USD is booked as TRA liability in the public company. Payable by cash to the partner when that tax benefit is realized, on the basis of with/without calculation. Some TRAs may even include the Net Operating Loss (NOLs) and other tax assets in the partnership on stock sale. A typical TRA sharing percentage is about 80% for the partner and 20% for the public company with a duration of 10-15 years. TRA is not specifically tied to stock ownership, for example in PRPL, innoHold may sell all their stake when PRPL stock reaches an all time high. Besides the sales proceeds they would then continue to receive cash for realized stock benefit from the step up for 10-15 years after they ceased to be stock holders.
Furthermore the way this is recorded in the balance sheet may use a "more likely then not" threshold so it won't actually appear until the company starts making a taxable profit. But they usually have a little note in the income tax section regarding it.
FROM PRPL 10-Q Q1 in notes on financial statements (income taxes)
Early Warning of Possible Valuation Allowance Reversal in Future PeriodsFROM PRPL 10-Q Q2 in notes on financial statements (income taxes)
For the period ended June 30, 2020, and in assessing the realizability of deferred tax assets, management determined that it is now more likely than not that its net deferred tax assets will be realized and that a full valuation allowance for its deferred tax assets is no longer appropriate. As of the period ended June 30, 2020, the Company is no longer in a three-year cumulative loss position. As a result of the removal of this negative evidence and other items of positive evidence, the Company has determined that the deferred tax assets are now more likely than not to be realized.Great now that the company have started making money, time to surprise public stock holders with instant liability.
PRPL Balance sheet Q2
Another cool feature of TRA is the Indemnification/clawback obligations.
No assurance can be given that the IRS will agree with the allocation of value among our assets or that sufficient subsequent payments under the tax receivable agreement will be available to offset prior payments for disallowed benefits. As a result, in certain circumstances, payments could be made under the tax receivable agreement in excess of the benefit that we actually realize in respect of the increases in tax basis resulting from our purchases or exchanges of LLC Units and certain other tax benefits related to our entering into the tax receivable agreementAnd even more wicked
Some companies pay interest on their TRA liability, even before the tax benefit is realizedTo top it off on a few TRAs spotted in the wild
Furthermore, payments under the tax receivable agreement will give rise to additional tax benefits and therefore additional payments under the tax receivable agreement itselfYep, paying the TRA will lead to another tax benefit attributed to the TRA leading to an increase in the TRA liability. It's like a perpetual motion machine.
Besides PRPL, The public markets have a history of underestimating and not fully understanding TRA impact
Let's take a look at PBF Energy TRA liability,
pre IPO it was estimated to be only about 96.8 MM USD
The drop you see in 2017 was due to the TCJA legislation enacted reducing corporate tax rate. Because of rona PBF market cap has fallen off a cliff since then, but you get the point, TRA liability increases in size along with company market cap and assets.
In order to avoid the swelling cost of TRAs,
Some companies have negotiated a cap on TRA payments. For example, when Genworth Financial (GNW) entered into a TRA with General Electric following their separation, the companies agreed on a maximum aggregate payment to GE of $640 million. As described in Genworth’s March 1, 2005 10-K filing: To put that number in context, $640 million is 35% of Genworth’s 2004 EBITDA. PRPL currently doesn't have any such cap.
For getting out of a TRA,
Clarivate Analytics(CCC) recently sought early termination / buyout of their TRA
The amount is usually NPV of potential tax benefits, which as you can imagine is very imprecise and will depend a lot on partners discretion.
Comments from Tax Professionals on TRA:
TRAs fundamentally change the nature of IPOs by transferring value from public shareholders to the pre-IPO owners. This Article shows that TRAs have rapidly risen in popularity and have very recently evolved in ways that make them universally available to any IPO. This Article analyzes the ways that TRAs transfer wealth from public companies to pre-IPO owners, presents previously overlooked economic and disclosure issues arising in these transactions, and argues that the SEC should require companies to publicly disclose these material risks.
What those lawyers are saying is basically that TRAs are made possible by retards buying stocks and not reading the fine print.
TL;DR: When you do DD on a company it's not just about topline and gross margin, verify the corporate structure and liabilities agreements so you won't be surprised come earnings.
submitted by lurkingsince2006 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
tl;dr - Earnings is gonna be lit!PRPL earnings is tomorrow, 8/13, after hours. Any other date is wrong. Robinhood is wrong (why are you using Robinhood still!?!).
I'm going to take you through my earnings projections and reasoning as well the things to look for in the earnings release and the call that could make this moon even further.
I'm calling $244M Net Revenue with $39.75M in Net Income, which would be $0.75 Diluted EPS. I'll walk you through how I got here
Total Net RevenueI make the assumption that Purple is still selling every mattress it can make (since that is what they said for April and May) and that this continued into June because the website was still delayed 7-14 days across all mattresses at the end of June.
May Revenue and April DTC: The numbers in purple were provided by Purple here and here.
April Wholesale: My estimate of $2.7M for Wholesale sales in April comes from this statement from the Q1 earnings release: " While wholesale sales were down 42.7% in April year-over-year, weekly wholesale orders have started to increase on a sequential basis. " I divided Q2 2019's wholesale sales evenly between months and then went down 42.7%.
June DTC: This is my estimate based upon the fact that another Mattress Max machine went online June 1, thus increasing capacity, and the low end model was discontinued (raising revenue per unit).
June Wholesale: Joe Megibow stated at Commerce Next on 7/30 that wholesale had returned to almost flat growth. I'm going to assume he meant for the quarter, so I plugged the number here to finish out the quarter at $39.0M, just under $39.3M from a year ago.
Revenue Expectations from Analysts (via Yahoo)
My estimate of $244M comes in way over the high, let alone the consensus. PRPL has effectively already disclosed ~$145M for April/May, so these expectations are way off. I'm more right than they are.
Gross MarginsI used my estimates for Q3/Q4 2019 to guide margins in April/May as there were some one time events that occurred in Q1 depressing margins. June has higher margin because of the shift away from the low end model (which is priced substantially lower than the high end model). Higher priced models were given manufacturing priority.
Operating ExpensesMarketing and Sales
Joe mentioned in the Commerce Next video that they were able to scale sales at a constant CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost). There's three ways of interpreting this:
General and Administrative
A Purple HR rep posted on LinkedIn about hiring 330 people in the quarter. I'm going to assume that was relative to the pre-COVID furloughs, so I had June at that proportional amount to previous employees and adjusted April and May for furloughs and returns from furlough.
Research and Development
I added just a little here and straight lined it.
Other ExpensesInterest Expense
Straightlined from previous quarters, although they may have tapped ABL lines and so forth, so this could be under.
One Time and Other
Unpredictable by nature.
Warrant Liability Accrual
I'm making some assumptions here.
Earnings (EPS)I project $39.75M or $0.75 Diluted EPS (53M shares). How does this hold up to the analysts?
EPS Expectations from Analysts (via Yahoo)
EPS Expectations from Analysts (via MarketBeat)
These losers are way under. Now you know why I am so optimistic about earnings.
Keep in mind, these analysts are still giving $28-$30 price targets.
What to Watch For During Earnings (aka Reasons Why This Moons More)Analysts, Institutionals, and everyone else who uses math for investing is going to be listening for the following:
This factor is HUGE. If PRPL guides to higher margins due to better sales mix and continued DTC shift, then every analyst and investor is going to tweak their models up in a big way. Thus far, management has been relatively cautious about this fortuitous shift to DTC continuing. If web traffic is any indicator, it will, but we need management to tell us that.
Warrant Liability Accrual
I could be dead wrong on my assumptions above on this one. If it stays, there will be questions about it due to the drop in exercise price. It does impact GAAP earnings (although it shouldn't--stupid accountants).
Capacity Expansion Rate
This is a BIG one as well. As PRPL has been famously capacity constrained: their rate of manufacturing capacity expansion is their growth rate over the next year. PRPL discontinued expansion at the beginning of COVID and then re-accelerated it to a faster pace than pre-COVID by hurrying the machines in-process out to the floor. They also signed their manufacturing space deal which has nearly doubled manufacturing space a quarter early. The REAL question is when the machines will start rolling out. Previous guidance was end of the year at best. If we get anything sooner than that, we are going to ratchet up.
CACs (Customer Acquisition Costs)
Since DTC is the new game in town, we are all going to want to understand exactly where marketing expenses were this quarter and, more importantly, where management thinks they are going. The magic words to listen for are "marketing efficiencies". Those words means the stock goes up. This is the next biggest line item on the P&L besides revenue and cost of goods sold.
New Product Categories
We heard the VP of Brand from Purple give us some touchy-feely vision of where the company is headed and that mattresses was just the revenue generating base to empower this. I'm hoping we hear more about this. This is what differentiated Amazon from Barnes and Noble: Amazon's vision was more than just books. Purple sees itself as more than just mattresses. Hopefully we get some announced action behind that vision. This multiplies the stock.
Cashless Exercise of PRPLW Warrants
I doubt this will be answered, even if the question is asked. I bet they wait until the 20 out of 30 days is up and they deliver notice. We could be pleasantly surprised. If management informs us that they will opt for cashless exercise of the warrants, this is anti-dilutive to EPS. It will reduce the number of outstanding shares and automatically cause an adjustment up in the stock price (remember kids, some people use math when investing). I'm hopeful, but not expecting it. The amount of the adjustment depends on the current price of the stock. Also, I fully expect PRPL management to use their cashless exercise option at the end of the 20 out of 30 days as they are already spitting cash.
I'm not just holding, I added.
PRPLW Warrants: 391,280
PRPL Call Debit Spreads: 17.5c/25c 8/21 x90, 20c/25c 8/21 x247
Also, I bought some CSPR 7.5p 8/21 x200 for fun because I think that sucker is going to get shamed back down to $6 after a real mattress company shows what it can do.
UPDATESI've made some updates to the model, and produced two different models:
From the recent S-3 filing for the May secondary, I pulled the following:
I diluted earnings by the above share count.
Model With Warrant Liability Going to Zero
Model With Warrant Liability Going to $47M
A few people called me out on my assumption, that I also said could be wrong. My favorite callout came from u/lawschoolbluesny who started all smug and condescending, and proceeded to tell me about June 31st, from which I couldn't stop laughing. Stay in law school bud a bit longer...
One other comment he made needs an answer because WHY we are accruing MATTERS a lot!
Now that we have established that coliseum still has not exercised the options as of july 7, and that purple needs to record as a liability the fair value of the options as of june 31, we now need to determine what that fair value is. You state that since you believe that there is no logical reason that coliseum won't redeem their warrants "there is no longer a warrant liability where the company may need to repurchase warrants back." While I'm not 100% certain your logic here, I can say for certain that whether or not a person will redeem their warrants does not dictate how prpl accounts for them.
The warrant liability accrual DOES NOT exist because the warrants simply exist. The accrual exists because the warrants give the warrant holder the right to force the company to buy back the warrants for cash in the event of a fundamental transaction for Black Scholes value ($18 at the end of June--June 31st that is...). And accruals are adjusted for the probability of a particular event happening, which I STILL argue is close to zero.
A fundamental transaction did occur. The Pearce brothers sold more than 10M shares of stock which is why the exercise price dropped to zero. (Note for DS_CPA1 on Stocktwits: there is some conflicting filings as to what the exercise price can drop to. The originally filed warrant draft says that the warrant exercise price cannot drop to zero, but asubsequently filed S-3, the exercise price is noted as being able to go to zero. I'm going with the S-3.)
Now, here is where it gets fun. We know from from the Schedule 13D filed with a July 1, 2020 event date from Coliseum that Coliseum DID NOT force the company to buy back the warrants in the fundamental transaction triggered by the Pearce Brothers (although they undoubtably accepted the $0 exercise price). THIS fundamental transaction was KNOWN to PRPL at the end Q4 and Q1 as secondary filings were made the day after earnings both times. This drastically increased the probability of an event happening.
Where is the next fundamental transaction that could cause the redemption for cash? It isn't there. What does exist is a callback option if the stock trades above $24 for 20 out of 30 days, which we are already 8 out of 10 days into.
Based upon the low probability of a fundamental transaction triggering a redemption, the accrual will stay very low. Even the CFO disagrees with me and we get a full-blown accrual, I expect a full reversal of the accrual next quarter if the 20 out of 30 day call back is exercised by the company.
I still don't understand why Coliseum would not have exercised these.
Regardless, the Warrant Liability Accrual is very fake and will go away eventually.
ONE MORE THING...Seriously, stop PMing me with stupid, simple questions like "What are your thoughts on earnings?", "What are your thoughts on holding through earnings?", and "What are your thoughts on PRPL?".
It's here. Above. Read it. I'm not typing it again in PM. I've gotten no less than 30 of these. If you're too lazy to read, I'm too lazy to respond to you individually.
Hi guys,submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Why it mattersThe first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.
Capital and position sizingThe first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.
Kelly CriterionIf you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
How to use stop losses sensiblyStop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.
Picking a clear levelWhere you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.
If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.
Coming up in part IIEDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Coming up in part IIISqueezes and other risks
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by Hi_Im_TwiX to VALORANT [link] [comments]
Valorant and the importance of crosshair placement.
Hey guys, I'm Twix, and I'm back with another informative post, this time concerning the aspect of crosshair placement. Through this post I will be discussing the importance of crosshair placement within the tac shooter genre, going over the most common mistakes I see people make in my experience as a coach, and offering structured routines to remedy the majority of these mistakes. If you haven't read through any of my posts before ( I wouldn't they're too long ) I am an FPS player which mainly played CS:GO competitively, with around 7k hours and multiple level 10 faceit accounts and LAN wins in the past 5 years, who transitioned towards the end of my CS:GO days into being an FPS coach, I mainly worked with people trying to gain a competitive edge in CS, but later moved to coaching Apex players, and following the closed beta release of Valorant, I have been coaching Valorant players for the past few months, with unanimously positive feedback. If you haven't read my first post which is a comprehensive general guide for players looking to improve in Valorant, I highly recommend you look at it here before continuing on to this post. In relation to other qualifications / achievements, I have hit top 30 as hitscan DPS in Overwatch, maintained top 500 ranking in Apex ( PC ) for a couple of seasons, and hold numerous 1% rankings on various Kovaak's FPS Aim Trainer maps. My main goal in creating these posts is to contribute to the Valorant community by sharing my knowledge gained over 10k collective hours of FPS experience ( mainly Tactical fps ) and hopefully help the people reading my posts improve and gain that competitive edge they need to progress into their desired ranking. For those of you interested in learning more about my coaching service, or looking for a community of Valorant players looking to improve, I will link my Discord server at the end of this post.
Why is crosshair placement important?
If I was asked about the importance of consistent crosshair placement in games such as PUBG, Apex, Overwatch, Fortnite, etc. I would probably answer by saying that while it's beneficial to maintain solid crosshair placement, it's by no means the most important aspect in relation to performing well in those games, in tactical shooters however, it's a whole different story. Tactical shooters are low TTK ( time to kill ) games, and for the most part, a single bullet to the head is enough to eliminate a player, this means that in contrast to AFPS games, or games like Overwatch or Apex, which have a much higher TTK, first shot accuracy is of extreme importance in Valorant, inevitably leading to the fact that crosshair placement is also extremely important. In a game with higher TTK, even if your first shot accuracy isn't perfect in an aim duel, you can win the fight if you land more shots on the opposing player over x amount of time that you trade with them, while in Valorant, whoever needs to make the least amount of adjustment to their crosshair when engaging in a 1v1 scenario wins the exchange. It doesn't matter if your raw aim is out of this world, even if you have the most precise flicks known to the FPS community, if your crosshair placement is sub-optimal, you will lose vs. someone with consistent crosshair placement, this is simply due to the fact that all they need to do, is click once your head moves into their crosshair, often without even needing to move their mouse. Crosshair placement may very well be the most important aspect in relation to gunplay and generally the mechanical aspect of tac shooters such as CS:GO or Valorant, as it's the deciding factor in the majority of aim duels.
A large amount of players tend to underestimate the importance of crosshair placement in Valorant, and especially the underlying complexity of maintaining consistency in that context. People think that all you need to do to maintain solid crosshair placement is aim high enough to hit headshots, meaning that the only factor that affects crosshair placement is vertical positioning, others still stick to making their main source of information on game improvement being players who make statements as un-informative and vague as "just click heads", my main goal is to break down and explain the multiple factors that go into proper crosshair placement. Lets start with the basics:
As mentioned above, one of the elements which ties into crosshair placement is vertical positioning. this is the set distance that you need to position your crosshair at in relation to the ground to be able to align your crosshair's horizontal axis with player model head-level. The good thing about vertical positioning, is that you can get accustomed to the head level that the player models have in Valorant quite rapidly, as the hitbox sizes in this game are identical, meaning you can always use the ground as a point of reference to determine where the enemy player's head would be.
In Valorant, the head level always remains a set distance from the ground
In order to train your general ability to place your crosshair at the correct height, try to make a habit out of constantly reminding yourself to place your crosshair at head level, regardless of where you are or what you're doing on the map. What I mean by this, is that even if there isn't any imminent threat of enemy players peeking you, try to keep constantly keep your crosshair at head level, the more time you spend doing this, the faster it will become a habit and become something you do subconsciously, without having to actively focus on the action. This habit allows you to build muscle-memory during otherwise useless down-time, another way to do this is to track your teammate's heads with your crosshair while rotating, leaving spawn etc.
While vertical positioning is something that people get used to relatively easily, I have come across a recurring issue among the VODs of people I coach, and that is that people generally struggle with adapting the vertical component of their crosshair's position to varying points of elevation. Here's an image to help you visualize a scenario where this could be an issue:
Peeking C Long, Positions marked: Cubby ( right ), Platform ( left ), back-site ( back )
In the image above I am peeking into C back-site from C long on the map 'Haven', I have highlighted three different positions / angles where an enemy could potentially peak from in an in-game reenactment of this scenario, Platform, Cubby, and back-site. What you'll notice is that these positions all have different points of elevation, meaning that while using the ground as reference will allow me to maintain my crosshair at head-level if someone peeks my position from ground level on C site, in order to clear cubby and platform, I would need to adjust my crosshair accordingly, using their lower levels as a reference for where the head-level position would be in those angles.
Unfortunately, if you are struggling with this due to the fact that you aren't familiar with the map layout yet, the only thing that will remedy your situation is more time spent playing the game, if however, your issue stems from a mechanical inability, meaning that your mouse control isn't good enough to allow you to make such adjustments comfortably, the routine provided later in the guide may help you get past that issue.
Just as with vertical positioning, horizontal positioning is pretty self-explanatory in terms of it's function. Knowing at what height to position your crosshair at in relation to the environment is far easier to do than knowing where to position it on a horizontal axis, the reasoning behind this is that with vertical placement you will always have the ground or lower level of the object the opponent is standing on as a point of reference which allows you to instantly know at what height head-level is. When focusing on the horizontal aspect of crosshair placement, there isn't a set point of reference at all times; Sometimes you need to hold wide angles, sometimes you need to move along with the object you're playing against, and sometimes you need to pre-aim to swing effectively, all this variability makes it much harder for a newer player to grasp crosshair placement and horizontal positioning is just as crucial as vertical positioning if not even more important.
A very common mistake which I see a lot of in the VODs I review as a coach, is newer players holding angles too tightly, meaning that they're playing in a position where they anticipate an enemy push and are waiting for the engagement, and their crosshair is a position where it's hugging the edge of the wall the enemy will peek from. Here is a visual representation of what I'm talking about:
Example of incorrect horizontal placement
In the image above, I'm holding an angle where if someone crosses moving parallel to the wall I'm looking at, I'll have under 50 ms to react, my crosshair is so close to the edge of the wall that I will need to click my LMB the milli-second I see the enemy. By holding this angle, chances are that by the time I click the enemy will have already crossed to the left of my crosshair resulting in a miss and most likely my death; It would take inhuman reaction times for anyone to hit a player while holding like this, especially if the enemy player is swinging. Instead, you should allow some distance from your crosshair to the edge of the angle you're holding, allowing yourself to spot the enemy's player model, and then time your click effectively. Here is a visual representation of correct crosshair placement while holding the same angle:
Example of correct horizontal placement
As you can see, in the image above I am allowing for some space between the wall and my crosshair, giving me a significantly longer time window to spot an enemy player and react. Holding an angle that's too "tight" would mean I need to make a larger adjustment to hit the enemy, and therefore I increase my margin of error due to vertical overshoot ( see below ). There are exceptions to the rule when it comes to the distance you need to hold at, if the angle you are holding only allows forward movement ( into your crosshair ) you can hold a narrow line of sight. If you are clearing an angle ( moving along it to check for enemies ) and you are the agressor, you can hold tight and move along with the wall / LOS to allow for a faster reaction if you spot an enemy during your movement. If you are the agressor and you want to swing into an angle that you believe / know an enemy is holding, it is sometimes optimal to pre-aim, meaning you position your crosshair in a way where without moving your mouse it will be aimed at the enemy's head once you swing out the angle.
The final common issue I would like to bring up which ties into both crosshair placement and horizontal click-timing, is something I call "vertical offset" or "vertical overshoot", this is a player's inability to move his crosshair horizontally while maintaining the same vertical placement. Vertical offset is a big issue when it comes to switching angles or flicking horizontally, I have seen many scenarios where a player is holding an angle properly with their crosshair at a pixel-perfect vertical position in relation to head level, only to make a 30 degree turn to check a different angle and end up shooting at an enemy's chest and losing the duel. Usually, the larger the movement, the more the player's crosshair deviates vertically. Here is a depiction of what vertical offset / overshooting looks like in-game:
Example of margin of error caused by vertical offset / overshooting
In the image above the green dot is where the crosshair should end up in an ideal scenario while flicking from it's current position to the target dummy, while the green lines represent a theoretical margin of error for overshooting. Fortunately for people that face this issue, I have come up with multiple Kovaak's maps and firing range excercises to help combat it and largely reduce your margin of error when moving your crosshair / flicking horizontally.
Settings: What sensitivity / crosshair should I use?
This part of the post discusses a topic which is highly subjective, both the sensitivity you use and the crosshair you use are something preference-based that you should decide upon on your own, the reason I'm adding this section into the post is for players which are newer to the tac-shooter genre; There are a few guidelines that will help them narrow down the settings that work the best for them.
First off, don't by any means copy your favorite pro's config, just because something works for a professional player that has probably spent well above 10,000 hours playing FPS games and decided upon their ideal sensitivity and crosshair within that massive period of time, doesn't mean that it's going to work for you, use whatever you're most comfortable with. Other than individual preference, and having gotten used to their sensitivity, the Pros you watch may be using gear which feels different at their sensitivity setting. A lighter mouse, faster mouse-pad, and faster feet can feel very different in terms of mouse movement, even if you're playing on the same sensitivity value on paper. In relation to grip-styles and what mice are ideal for each hand size, make sure to check out my first post in this sub before moving forward with this guide, as playing on hardware that caters to your individual preferences plays an important role in increasing your mechanical potential.
As I stated in the paragraph above, sensitivity is something quite subjective and while there's no general rule as to which single sens value is superior, Valorant and CS:GO professionals tend to stick to e-dpi or cm/360 much lower than professional players in other titles and FPS subgenres. Your e-dpi is your in-game sensitivity value multiplied by your mouse's DPI setting. The average e-dpi used by Valorant professionals is around 250 e-dpi, which would be a value of 0.625 in-game @ 400 DPI, or around 50 cm/360.
Pro player & Streamer sensitivity settings (e-dpi)
cm/360 is a universal format for sensitivity measurement, it's the amount of centimeters you need to move your mouse in order to perform a full rotation. This is the format adopted within aimer communities due to the simple fact that you asking someone "what sensitivity do you play on?" And them responding with "1.5 in CSGO" is pretty useless information as they could be playing at any DPI range, and you don't necessarily know what each CSGO sens corresponds to in relation to physical movement, or even movement in other games. "e-dpi" solves the issue of different DPI x Sens measurements within the same game, but the cm/360 format is easily transferable from title to title.
The reason professional players in the tac shooter genre use lower sens on average, is due to the fact that in contrast with other FPS games, tac shooters don't require larger or extended movements, instead they require you to hold or clear angles while maintaining stable crosshair placement, the least adjustments you need to make to your crosshair's position on your screen, the better your "aim" will be. The majority of players I have coached report that it has been significantly easier for them to maintain consistent crosshair placement at lower sensitivities. For newer players that still haven't found a "main" sensitivity that they feel comfortable on, I would recommend for them to stick to the range of 200-300 e-dpi, while for more experienced players coming from CS or other similar games, I would recommend a similar range with a higher cap, at 200-400 e-dpi ( very few professional players play above 300 e-dpi ).
This is something even more subjective and preference-based than sensitivity even, so what I will do in this section is simply post my own settings which I use for my in-game crosshair, and explain why I picked each value within the menu.
So, lets break my crosshair down setting by settings:
Crosshair Placement Improvement Routine:A large portion of improving your crosshair placement is based on simply playing the game more, crosshair placement is largely based on muscle memory, part of having good crosshair placement is simply based on having experience in-game allowing it to become a subconscious habit, and the rest is based on your ability to anticipate player model movement and learn to make horizontal movements without simultaneously your crosshair vertically. The routine I will provide is not only a great way to work on your crosshair placement, but also highly beneficial to the click-timing aspect of your aim, which is basically the only element of aiming required in Valorant, as good tracking is unecessary in such a low TTK game. If you are already training using a daily routine on Kovaak's ( as you should be ) you can just implement this into your daily scenarios.
( These are all maps which require you to make horizontal movements without overshooting vertically, thus good aim training for those struggling with crosshair placement, see my other posts for a larger variety of Kovaaks maps )
Link to my Discord server for further questions / coaching inquiries:
---------- https://discord.gg/6ZYVZ6xNew twitter : https://mobile.twitter.com/Twix_v2
tl;dr: Buy PRPL stock, warrants (PRPLW) or calls based upon your preference. They are closing out a killer quarter and are undervalued. PRPL 22.5c 8/21 if you really need a strike.submitted by lurkingsince2006 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
I decided to appeal to both WSB audiences today with two different types of DD:
I bought six Purple Mattresses today.Yep. I moved to Utah a few weeks ago (absolutely true) in order to do better DD for you in Purple's hometown (not true at all), so I decided to trek down to the Purple Factory Outlet to scope out the scene.
Purple Factory Outlet in a crappy part of Salt Lake - Sign on the door says \"NO CASH INSIDE\"
Family informed me they were coming to visit in three days (who does that to someone when they just moved!?!). My wife said we needed sleeping arrangements, so I said Purple mattresses.
After speaking with my Mattress Firm friend, he told me that Mattress Firm is entirely out of stock of twin mattresses in the Salt Lake City market (Purple's hometown). Worse, the mattresses aren't coming back as the original (the only mattress to come in twin) is being discontinued.
This is a screenshot of an internal Mattress Firm memo on the discontinuance of the Original Purple Mattress (the cheapest one by far) What can I say? He isn't a photographer.
I figured the Purple branded store would have stock, if it existed. And because they are being discontinued, I didn't want to be left short-handed in the future. So, I walked out of the store with six Purple mattresses. And some pillows. And sheets. And mattress protectors. Aaaaaand because I took delivery, it counts towards Q2 revenue (the best part).
For all of those who will inevitably accuse me of pumping the stock, I admit that purchasing six mattresses will pump revenue and therefore pump the stock after earnings. Now, where are all of those people who asked me for a free mattress?
This was a sign.
Most importantly, when I pulled out of the parking lot, a purple Dodge Challenger zoomed right by me. I was barely able to get this zoomed in picture of it. This means PRPL stock is going to zoom up.
PRPL 22.5c 8/21. I bought ten of those contracts today too. It was cheaper than the mattresses.
Numbers and Other StuffI put forward that because Purple is a high revenue growth company, the best valuation metrics are revenue multiples (as opposed to EBITDA multiples or P/E ratios). You're welcome to debate this, but frankly, the forward looking EBITDA and Earnings look beautiful as well.
Additionally, I put forward that Enterprise Value / Revenue is superior to Market Cap / Revenue, but I'll let you do that research yourself.
From Yahoo Finance:
Enterprice Value / Revenue
PRPL is currently trading well below its own previous EV / Rev multiple range, despite accelerating revenue growth into Q2 with a healthy long-term outlook of holding an increase.
Additionally, PRPL is trading well below the pre-COVID norm for industry EV / Rev mutliples.
What about CSPR? CSPR is a total dumpster fire that is now drowning in IPO lawsuits. Its revenue growth has materially slowed, was awful in April forward looking (15% YoY growth vs 170% for PRPL), on declining margins. The cash burn rate for CSPR was high before COVID. They likely only have a few quarters left to live. I think they are overpriced as a result. CSPR is a bad comp even though there are similarities to the businesses at the 30,000 ft level.
Revenue Growth & Estimates (Q2 Estimates via Yahoo Finance)
Summary: PRPL's EV / R multiple is under where is should be, even in this market, whether you compare it to its own previous multiples or its competitors before they were affected by COVID. If you look at COVID EV / R multiples, it is in-line with companies who are materially struggling with cash flow and growth... this couldn't be further from the truth. PRPL is undervalued.
Analyst Price TargetsI don't usually give these guys much weight, but for those of you who do:
Marketbeat (and a few others) are inaccurately showing a lower consensus price target because they are using some very old price targets.
As you look at the 7 price targets MarketBeat is using to build a consensus price target, two of them are from last year, which is ridiculously old (it's about time you update this Bank of America--you got your underwriting--now do your job). Wedbush was after earnings, but before the recent 8-K on Q2 revenue.
I put forward that the only targets that matter are those that adjusted to the 8-K revenue announcement. The consensus there is $19.75. This only matters if you follow these types of things.
Today's Price ActionI admit that this post would have been more relevant early this morning when I started writing it (the numbers part).
The price spiked late afternoon because of the attention drawn to it by a CNBC interview by CEO Joe Megibow.
In the interview, he doesn't share anything really new (for those of us who closely follow), but he does emphasize that PRPL doesn't have a return rate problem, unlike others (*cough* CSPR *cough*).
Q2 EPS / EBITDA EstimatesPRPL has generated $70M in cash during April and May, which is insane for a stock that has generated Adjusted EBITDA in the 6.2-15.3M range over the last four quarters. The quarter isn't even done yet.
I'm not putting an EPS estimate on this because the amazing cash generation is going to be partially offset by a fairly large warrant liability expense adjustment. It will likely be one of the final expense adjustments we see as the secondary offering triggered a strike price drop to zero, which is one of key things the liability expense was modelling. Regardless, warrant liability expense doesn't deserve to be an expense as the warrants themselves are already built into fully diluted EPS, which is what everyone reports. The FASB done messed up on this one.
Technical Astrology & PRPL PatternsIMO, most technical analysis is confirmation bias at best. Here's some confirmation bias.
If you are into this type of thing, PRPL has been a series of Bull Flags since the bottom of COVID. We are now ending our fourth bull flag (which likely ended today). At least this is what stocktwits and a few other areas are raving about.
The intraday patterns are more interesting to me. I've been watching this security fairly closely over the last 3 months since the COVID bottom, and on most days, you'll see a spike in the morning that fades away into the afternoon. It is almost like clockwork and seems to be irrespective of volume.
While I don't trade this pattern because I don't want to exit my long-term capital gains positions yet, some of PRPL gang makes money by buying in the morning (or afternoon before), selling/shorting at the peak, and then closing/buying late afternoon. Good on them!
Also, PRPLW warrants tend to lag the stock on the way up if you want to play that too.
What is your next play after PRPL?I've already mentioned several times that I will fully exit my warrants (and rotate into some PRPL stock / long dated options) when the stock price reaches about $24. My inbox has been bombarded with questions about what my next play is.
The above chart is a comparison between CSPR and PRPL. CSPR, even though it is a total dog, has been riding up with PRPL on sympathy plays. CSPR spikes on PRPL news, conference presentations, and any other movement.
PRPL has reasons to be up. CSPR shouldn't be any higher than where it was after its last earnings release. The only new things that have occurred are dozens of IPO lawsuits.
I'll be shorting CSPR for somewhere between $100k-$500k if I end up exiting my PRPL positions before CSPR earnings and if this stupid pattern holds. It's free money.
PositionsI've got tons of warrants (closing in on $2M worth) and now 10x PRPL 22.5c 8/21.
Do your own due diligence. This is not investment advice of any kind.
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