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Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter. Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic! Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below. Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense. Part III
Squeezes and other risks
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
Squeezes and other risks
We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem. This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week. For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity. The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class. A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone. There's a reason for the car, don't worry Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price. If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point. To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price. Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble. Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it. The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard. Incredible event Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.” If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely. This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze. For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts. A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me: Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy. Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite. A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012. The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’. They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally. Then this happened. Something that changed FX markets forever The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%. Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care? Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care. Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable. To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on. On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy. We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like. A carry trade position clear-out in action Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful. The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT"). This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market. Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy. You can find the data online for free and download it directly here. Raw format is kinda hard to work with However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”. But you can easily get visualisations You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful. Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information. As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning. For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back? A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity. For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?” In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit. If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are. Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large. Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem. Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue. Chart from TradingView So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together. The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each. There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio. A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance. But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done? For example:
You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return. The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction. It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade. Flat is a position. Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it. Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month. Be strict with yourself and walk away Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first. Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period. Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture. Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal. When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk management
Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback. Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results. Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below. News Trading Part I
Why use the economic calendar
Reading the economic calendar
Knowing what's priced in
First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
Data surprise index
Using recent events to predict future reactions
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
The mysterious 'position trim' effect
Some key FX releases
*** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
You've probably been hearing a lot about Bitcoin recently and are wondering what's the big deal? Most of your questions should be answered by the resources below but if you have additional questions feel free to ask them in the comments. It all started with the release of the release of Satoshi Nakamoto's whitepaper however that will probably go over the head of most readers so we recommend the following videos for a good starting point for understanding how bitcoin works and a little about its long term potential:
Limited Supply - There will only ever be 21,000,000 bitcoins created and they are issued in a predictable fashion, you can view the inflation schedule here. Once they are all issued Bitcoin will be truly deflationary. The halving countdown can be found here.
Open source - Bitcoin code is fully auditable. You can read the source code yourself here.
Accountable - The public ledger is transparent, all transactions are seen by everyone.
Decentralized - Bitcoin is globally distributed across thousands of nodes with no single point of failure and as such can't be shut down similar to how Bittorrent works. You can even run a node on a Raspberry Pi.
Censorship resistant - No one can prevent you from interacting with the bitcoin network and no one can censor, alter or block transactions that they disagree with, see Operation Chokepoint.
Push system - There are no chargebacks in bitcoin because only the person who owns the address where the bitcoins reside has the authority to move them.
Low fee scaling - On chain transaction fees depend on network demand and how much priority you wish to assign to the transaction. Most wallets calculate on chain fees automatically but you can view current fees here and mempool activity here. On chain fees may rise occasionally due to network demand, however instant micropayments that do not require confirmations are happening via the Lightning Network, a second layer scaling solution currently rolling out on the Bitcoin mainnet.
Borderless - No country can stop it from going in/out, even in areas currently unserved by traditional banking as the ledger is globally distributed.
Portable - Bitcoins are digital so they are easier to move than cash or gold. They can even be transported by simply memorizing a string of words for wallet recovery (while cool this method is generally not recommended due to potential for insecure key generation by inexperienced users. Hardware wallets are the preferred method for new users due to ease of use and additional security).
Bitcoin.org and BuyBitcoinWorldwide.com are helpful sites for beginners. You can buy or sell any amount of bitcoin (even just a few dollars worth) and there are several easy methods to purchase bitcoin with cash, credit card or bank transfer. Some of the more popular resources are below, also check out the bitcoinity exchange resources for a larger list of options for purchases.
Here is a listing of local ATMs. If you would like your paycheck automatically converted to bitcoin use Bitwage. Note: Bitcoins are valued at whatever market price people are willing to pay for them in balancing act of supply vs demand. Unlike traditional markets, bitcoin markets operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. Preev is a useful site that that shows how much various denominations of bitcoin are worth in different currencies. Alternatively you can just Google "1 bitcoin in (your local currency)".
Securing your bitcoins
With bitcoin you can "Be your own bank" and personally secure your bitcoins OR you can use third party companies aka "Bitcoin banks" which will hold the bitcoins for you.
If you prefer to "Be your own bank" and have direct control over your coins without having to use a trusted third party, then you will need to create your own wallet and keep it secure. If you want easy and secure storage without having to learn computer security best practices, then a hardware wallet such as the Trezor, Ledger or ColdCard is recommended. Alternatively there are many software wallet options to choose from here depending on your use case.
If you prefer to let third party "Bitcoin banks" manage your coins, try Gemini but be aware you may not be in control of your private keys in which case you would have to ask permission to access your funds and be exposed to third party risk.
Note: For increased security, use Two Factor Authentication (2FA) everywhere it is offered, including email! 2FA requires a second confirmation code to access your account making it much harder for thieves to gain access. Google Authenticator and Authy are the two most popular 2FA services, download links are below. Make sure you create backups of your 2FA codes.
As mentioned above, Bitcoin is decentralized, which by definition means there is no official website or Twitter handle or spokesperson or CEO. However, all money attracts thieves. This combination unfortunately results in scammers running official sounding names or pretending to be an authority on YouTube or social media. Many scammers throughout the years have claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin. Websites like bitcoin(dot)com and the btc subreddit are active scams. Almost all altcoins (shitcoins) are marketed heavily with big promises but are really just designed to separate you from your bitcoin. So be careful: any resource, including all linked in this document, may in the future turn evil. Don't trust, verify. Also as they say in our community "Not your keys, not your coins".
Where can I spend bitcoins?
Check out spendabit or bitcoin directory for millions of merchant options. Also you can spend bitcoin anywhere visa is accepted with bitcoin debit cards such as the CashApp card. Some other useful site are listed below.
Mining bitcoins can be a fun learning experience, but be aware that you will most likely operate at a loss. Newcomers are often advised to stay away from mining unless they are only interested in it as a hobby similar to folding at home. If you want to learn more about mining you can read more here. Still have mining questions? The crew at /BitcoinMining would be happy to help you out. If you want to contribute to the bitcoin network by hosting the blockchain and propagating transactions you can run a full node using this setup guide. If you would prefer to keep it simple there are several good options. You can view the global node distribution here.
Just like any other form of money, you can also earn bitcoins by being paid to do a job.
You can also earn bitcoins by participating as a market maker on JoinMarket by allowing users to perform CoinJoin transactions with your bitcoins for a small fee (requires you to already have some bitcoins.
The following is a short list of ongoing projects that might be worth taking a look at if you are interested in current development in the bitcoin space.
One Bitcoin is quite large (hundreds of £/$/€) so people often deal in smaller units. The most common subunits are listed below:
one bitcoin is equal to 100 million satoshis
1,000 per bitcoin
used as default unit in recent Electrum wallet releases
1,000,000 per bitcoin
colloquial "slang" term for microbitcoin (μBTC)
100,000,000 per bitcoin
smallest unit in bitcoin, named after the inventor
For example, assuming an arbitrary exchange rate of $10000 for one Bitcoin, a $10 meal would equal:
For more information check out the Bitcoin units wiki. Still have questions? Feel free to ask in the comments below or stick around for our weekly Mentor Monday thread. If you decide to post a question in /Bitcoin, please use the search bar to see if it has been answered before, and remember to follow the community rules outlined on the sidebar to receive a better response. The mods are busy helping manage our community so please do not message them unless you notice problems with the functionality of the subreddit. Note: This is a community created FAQ. If you notice anything missing from the FAQ or that requires clarification you can edit it here and it will be included in the next revision pending approval. Welcome to the Bitcoin community and the new decentralized economy!
Lition - $8 Million Dollar Market Cap With Real Use Right Now and a New Product They Are Developing Which Has Huge Potential.
I’m not usually one to shill my own coins but I’ve stolen a few good picks from this sub so I thought I’d share a new one I recently stumbled upon. Before I go into more details, I’d like to preface this by saying that I never invest in anything which I don’t think has the fundamentals to last at least 5-10 years and I don’t think this is a project which you will see a few hundred percent gains in a month or two. The hype isn’t there with this project and it’s more of a mid-long term play. If you want overnight gains, gamble on some of the smaller caps posted in this sub which are more like ponzi schemes riding on DeFi hype which you sell to a greater fool.
Lition is a layer 2 blockchain infrastructure on top of Ethereum that enables commercial usage of dApps. The Lition protocol complements the Ethereum mainchain by adding features such as privacy, scalability and deletability for GDPR compliance. Everybody can choose to build on Lition without the need for permission.
In addition to the above, they also have a P2P energy trading platform currently operating and is supplying green power to customers in over 1000 towns and cities across Germany. Through their power platform, Lition customers are able to save about 20% on their monthly energy bill, while producers generate up to 30% higher profits since they are cutting out the middle men. However, the real moonshot here is not their already successful smart energy platform (which utilises the same token) it is the enterprise layer 2 solution described in the quote above. Their layer 2 enterprise infrastructure which is still in development will offer infinite scalability through sidechains and nodes staking LIT tokens on these sidechains. Block times will be fast at around 3 seconds and fees will be tiny fractions of a cent. However, the real selling point for enterprises will be that the data on these sidechains can be deleted and can be public or private, with private chains being validated via Zero-Knowledge proofs to verify that the private data is correct. This is huge and makes Lition a solution for a wide range of enterprise use cases due to these optional features. But it doesn’t stop there. Lition is also GDPR compliant - a big deal for Europe based enterprises and for the record, very very few blockchain solutions are GDPR compliant (I believe VeChain is one of the few other projects which are).
Important Bullet Points
They have a very close partnership with SAP who if you don’t know are the world’s leading business software company. SAP’s Chief Innovation Officer is even an advisor for the project. As stated in the whitepaper: ”SAP can easily implement this blockchain into their existing products and services for their customer base of >400,000, making them immediately ready for blockchain use cases. It is therefore well positioned to become the standard mainnet for business applications.”
They have a partnership with Microsoft and they are integrated with Microsoft Azure Cloud.
In terms of their energy platform, Lition has a growth target of 235,000 customers by the end of 2022. 3 months ago they stated that they were ahead of their goal. Right now there is a ”solid 4-figured number of new customers every month with each new customer bringing in ~€1,000 Euros in annual recurring revenue”.
Oh, and did I mention they support staking? Staking returns are currently over 15% for node operators.
Their token has two primary uses. First, it is a utility token and they plan on making the LIT token the preferred payment method for all of the services on the Lition protocol. Secondly, it is used as collateral for staking which I can see locking up a large proportion of the supply in the future. Unfortunately the circulating supply is currently 50% of the max supply but that said, coins like LINK have just 35% of the total tokens currently circulating, so relative to other projects, this isn’t too bad and many of the tokens are still to be earned by staking.
With their existing energy platform seeing real adoption and steady growth in Germany, in my opinion, this alone would be enough to justify their current market cap. However, I can see their second layer solution for enterprise being a really big deal in the future as protocol coins tend to accrue more value than utility tokens. As a versatile L2 solution for Ethereum, LIT gets the best of both worlds - adoption and network effects from Ethereum by helping it to scale as well as accruing value from the wide range of enterprise use cases which can be built on top of Lition. At just $8 million dollars in market cap, it seems to me that their work-in-progress L2 enterprise solution has not been priced in. However, due to a lack of hype and marketing right now, I don’t see LIT exploding in the short term. Rather, I can see it slowly outperforming ETH and climbing up the CMC rankings throughout this bullrun, much like Chainlink did in the bear market. Their building and partnerships over marketing strategy also reminds me when I held Chainlink back in 2018 when Sergey was busy building out the project rather than blowing their ICO money on marketing a bunch of vaporware like so many other projects. Personally, I can see LIT becoming a top 100 project (not top 10) as it isn’t the first of an important new type of project like Chainlink was/is but it is an L2 protocol with unique advantages and selling points over other existing L2 projects which scatter the top 20-200 range. This would put the market cap at just under $120 million dollars which is a 15x from here. This is of course a valuation which assumes that the total crypto market cap remains where it is right now at just under $400 billion dollars. However, if BTC makes it to 100K and Ethereum gets to $5K then that is another 10x from here which compounds on any LIT/BTC or LIT/ETH ratio gains. In this scenario, a top 100 project would be worth around $1BILLION DOLLARS by market cap which is over 100x from here and probably even more if ETH hits 10K and Bitcoin dominance falls back down to the 30% range or below towards the end of the bullrun. Disclaimer, the above figures are a theoretical best case scenario and are far from financial advice. They are my moonshot estimates which assumes all goes well for the project and the wider crypto space. Website: https://www.lition.io/ CoinGecko: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/lition Medium: https://medium.com/lition-blog
TL;DR: LIT has current real world use which is consistently growing with their P2P energy trading platform and has huge potential with their new L2 protocol for enterprise due to its unique features. They have a close partnership with SAP and are also partnered with Microsoft. Currently around #400 on CMC, my target is for LIT to be top 100 by the end of the bullrun. Edit: Sorry 4chan, I didn't mean to shill one of your FUDed coins. Lit is a shitcoin scam, ignore this post.
Necessary Disclaimer: no rule breaking intended. No price manipulation intended. I only want to share verifiable facts/links and my analysis. If I am doing anything against the rules please let me know and I will do my best to fix it ASAP. I trade crypto, including LINK, and I am currently short on LINK. This is not financial advice; this is just for my own record and to start a discussion for anyone who might want more transparency around LINK.
I believe there is a lot of misinformation, uncertainty, and unanswered questions about the LINK token, the Chainlink ecosystem, the SmartContract parent company. I also believe that LINK's current price is unjustified based on fundamental factors like usage/business case/current customers/future potential. So I'm raising some points and asking some questions. What is this post? Why should I care? How do I use it? Read or skim it. It's about the LINK token, the Chainlink ecosystem, and the parent company SmartContract. It's about why I believe the price of the LINK token may be currently driven mostly by hype and not backed by standard market fundamentals like usage/economics. Update 9 AUG: reorganizing, rewriting this post and moving supporting data/sources into "appendix" comments below on this post. The previous versions of this post and my comments elsewhere were too emotionally charged and caused more division rather than honest, evidence-based, productive discussion and I sincerely apologize for that. I have now rewritten it and will continue to update it.
Threshold signatures, staking, on-chain SLAs: How real are these, is there a roadmap, how will this benefit users, is there any evidence of users currently *wanting* to use chainlink but needing these features and actively waiting for Chainlink to launch these? Staking: for there to be a valid incentive for users to stake LINK, it has to return around 5% annually because anything substantially under that would have users putting their money elsewhere (https://www.stakingrewards.com/cryptoassets) (not counting speculative capital gains in terms of LINK's price, but price gain per token/coin applies to all other crypto projects as well). Currently, for stakable cryptos, around 30-80% of their total supply is staked, and a good adjusted reward is on the order of 5% as well (some actually negative, some 10%+). The promise of staking incentivises people to buy and hold more LINK tokens (again, many other crypto projects have staking already live). That 5% reward will ultimately have to come from the customers who pay Chainlink oracle nodes to use their services, so it's an extra 5% fee for them. Of course, in the near future, the staking rewards *could* be subsidized by the founders' reserve wallets. Threshold signatures: addressed below in a comment. On-chain SLAs: [TODO] Here's supposedly Chainlink's agile/project planning board. (TODO: verify that it is indeed Chainlink's, and then analyse it) https://www.pivotaltracker.com/n/projects/2129823
I manually traced EVERY single inbound transaction/source of funds for the above 4 (not counting #1 as 10 LINK is negligible). 2 & 3 are 99.99%+ genesis-funded, being ACTIVELY topped up by a genesis wallet, last tx 4 days ago, 500,000 LINK. #4 has been funded 36 times over the past year and a half (that's 36 manual exports and I did them all). They all come from the 0x27158..., 0x2f0acb..., and https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x1f9e26f1c050b5c018ab0e66fcae8e4394eb0165 (another address like the 0x2f0acb that I went through and checked EVERY SINGLE inbound source of funds, and it's also >99.9% genesis-funded - one tx from Binance for 6098 LINK out of a total ~6,560,000 inbound LINK from genesis wallets), and two other addresses linked to Binance (0x1b185c8611d157a67d9a9d5261b0d2bd52c0bb78, 10,000 LINK and 0x039ac18afe298747c51c85e7c8f0d67c327f3883, 1,000,000 LINK) The 0x039ac... address funded the "Chainlink: Aggregator" address with 127,900 LINK, and the 0x1b185... with about ~9,600 LINK). So yes, it's technically possible that someone not related to Chainlink paid for the ETH / USD price feed because some funds do come from Binance. However, they only come from two distinct addresses. Surely for "240+" claimed partnerships, more than TWO would pay to use Chainlink's MOST POPULAR price feed? That is, unless they don't pay directly but to another address and then Chainlink covers this one from their own wallets. I will check if that's in line with Chainlink's whitepaper, but doesn't that throw doubt on the whole model of end-users paying to use oracles/aggregators, even if it's subsidized? I provide you this much detail not to bore you but to show you that I went through BY HAND and checked every single source (detailed sources in Appendix B) of funds for the OFFICIAL, Chainlink-listed "ETH/USD" aggregator that's supposedly sponsored by 10 DeFi partners (Synthetix, LoopSpring, OpenLaw, 1inch, ParaSwap, MCDEX, FuturesSwap, DMM, Aave, The Force Protocol). Yet where are the transactions showing that those 10 partners have EVER paid for this ETH/USD oracle? Perhaps the data is there so what am I missing? This ETH/USD aggregator has transferred out ~76,000 LINK to I guess the data providers in increments of .33 LINK. It has 21 data providers responding. I will begin investigating the data providers themselves soon. And those middle addresses like 0x1f9e26... and 0x2f0acb...? They have transferred out hundreds of thousands if not millions of LINK to exchanges. And that's just ONE price pair aggregator. Chainlink has around 40 of these (albeit this one's one of the more popular ones). SNX / ETH aggregator is funded 100% by genesis-sourced wallets, only 3 inbound transactions: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0xe23d1142de4e83c08bb048bcab54d50907390828 Some random examples (for later, ignore these for now) *********** https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x039ac18afe298747c51c85e7c8f0d67c327f3883 bought 1,000,000 LINK from Binance in Sept 12 & 15, 2019. (one of the possible funding sources for the ETH / USD aggregator example above) This address got 500,000 LINK from 0x27158... and has distributed them into ~5-10,000 LINK wallets that haven't had any out transactions yet https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x5bcf3edc0bb7119e35f322ba40793b99d4620f1e ************** Another example with an unnamed aggregator-node-like wallet that was only spun up 5 days ago, Aug 5: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x2cbfd29947f774b8cf338f776915e6fee052f236 It was funded 2,000 LINK SOLELY by the 0x27158... wallet and has so far paid out ~500 LINK in 0.43 LINK amounts to 9 wallets at a time. For example, this is one of the wallets it cashes out to: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x64fe692be4b42f4ac9d4617ab824e088350c11c2#tokenAnalytics That wallet extremely consistently collects small amounts of LINK since Oct 2019. It must be a data provider because a lot of Chainlink named wallets pay it small amounts of LINK regularly. It has transferred out 20 times. The most recent transfer out: https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0xc8c30fa803833dd1fd6dbcdd91ed0b301eff87cf which then immediately transferred to the named "1inch.exchange" wallet, so I assume this was a "cash-out" transaction. It has cashed out via this address a lot. Granted, it also has transfer-out transactions that haven't (yet) ended up in an exchange wallet, eg https://etherscan.io/token/0x514910771af9ca656af840dff83e8264ecf986ca?a=0x88e5353a73f38f25a9611e6083de6f361f9b537b with a current balance of 3000 LINK. This could be a user's exchange wallet, ready to be sold, or could be something else. No way for me to tell as there are no out txs from it.
LINK overall transaction, volume, and tx fees
This is to understand how much $ moves through the LINK ecosystem through: nodes, data providers, reserve wallets, wallets linked to exchanges, others. A typical aggregator node tx (payout?): https://etherscan.io/tx/0xef9e8e6dd94ebe9bbac8866f18c2ea0a07408ced1aa77fa04826043eaa55e772 This is their ETH/USD aggregator paying out 1 LINK to each of 21 addresses. Value of 21 LINK ~= $210. Total eth tx fees: .233 ETH (~$88.5, ~42% of the total tx value. If LINK was $4.2 instead of $10, the tx fees would be 100% of the value of the tx). Transactions like this happen every few minutes, and the payout amounts are most often 0.16, 0.66, 1.0, and 2.0 Link. Chainlink’s node/job listing site, https://market.link, lists 86 nodes, 195 feeds, 801 jobs, ~1,080,000 job runs (I can’t tell if this is over the past 2 months or 1.5 years). Only 20 nodes have over 1000 job runs, and 62 nodes have ZERO runs. Usual job cost is listed as 0.1 link, but the overall payout to the nodes is 10-20 times this. The nodes then cash out usually through a few jump addresses to exchanges. Some quick maths: (being generous and assuming it’s 1mil jobs every 2 months = ~6mil link/year = $60,000,000 revenue a year. This is the most generous estimate towards link’s valuation I’ve found so far. If we ignore the below examples where on multi-node payouts the tx fees are more than the node revenue itself, then it’s almost in line with an over-valued (but real) big tech company. For example, one of the latest CHF/USD job runs paid 0.1 LINK to 9 addresses (data providers?) - total $14.4 payout - and paid 0.065 ETH ($24.5) in fees. That’s a $10.1 LOSS on a $14.4 revenue: https://etherscan.io/tx/0xa6351bab810b6864bfebb0f6e1e3bde3c8856f8aac3ba769dd2e6d1a39c0d23f Linkpool’s (one of the biggest node operators) “ETH-USD CryptoCompare” job costs 0.1 link and has 33 runs in the past 24 hours (once every ~44min), total ~78,000 runs since May 30 2019 (once every ~8min). https://market.link/jobs/64bb0845-c4e1-4681-8853-0b5aa7366101/runs (PS cryptocompare has a free API that does this. Not sure why it costs $1 at current link prices to access an API once)
Top 100 wallets (0.05% of ~186,000 total) hold 83% of tokens. 8 wallets each hold over 1% of total, 58 hold over 0.1%. Of these 58, 9 are named exchange/lending pool wallets. For comparison, for Tether (TUSD), the top 100 wallets (0.006% of ~1,651,000 total) hold 35.9% of the supply. 3 addresses hold over 1% of the supply and 135 hold over 0.1%. Of these 135, at least 15 are named exchange/lending pool wallets. LINK’s market cap is $3.5B (or $10B fully diluted, if we count the foundedev-controlled tokens, which we should as there's nothing preventing them from being moved at a moment's notice). Tether’s is $6.9B. Tether has 10 times more addresses and less distribution inequality. Both LINK and Tether are ERC20 tokens, and even if we temporarily ignore any arguments related to management/roadmap/teams etc, Tether has a clear, currently functional, single use case: keep 1 USDT = $1 USD by printing/burning USDT (and yet as of April 2019, only 74% of Tether's market cap is backed by real funds - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency))). Given that Chainlink's market cap is now 50% bigger than Tether's, surely by now there's AT LEAST one clear, currently functional use case for LINK? What is it? Can we *see* it happening on-chain?
Chainlink’s actual deliverable products
"What do I currently get for my money if I buy LINK 1) as an investor and 2) as a tech business/startup thinking of using oracles?” Codebase (Chainlink’s github has around 140-200,000 lines of code (not counting html/css). What else is not counted in this? Town crier? Proprietary code that we don't know about yet? How much CODING has Chainlink done other than what's on github? Current network of oracles - only ~20 active nodes - are there many more than the ones listed on market.link and reputation.link? If so, would be nice to know about these if we're allowed! Documentation - they have what seems like detailed instructions on how to launch and use oracle nodes (and much more, I haven't investigated yet) (TODO this part more - what else do they offer to me as an end consumer, and eg as a tech startup needing oracle services that I can’t code myself?)
Network utilization statistics:
Etherscan.io allows csv export of the first 5000 txs from each day. From Jul 31 to Aug 6 2020, I thus downloaded 30,000 tx from midnight every day to an average of 7:10am (so 24 hour totals are 3.34x these numbers if we assume the same network utilization throughout the day). (Summary of all LINK token activity on the ETH blockchain from 31.07 to 06.08, first 5000 txs of each day (30k total) shown Appendix A comment below this post.) If we GENEROUSLY assume that EVERY SINGLE transaction under 10.0 LINK is ACTUAL chainlink nodes doing ACTUAL work, that’s still under 0.1% of the LINK network’s total volume being used for ACTUAL ecosystem functioning. The rest is speculation, trading, node funding by foundedev wallets, or dumping to exchanges (anything I missed?) Assuming the above, the entire turnover of the actual LINK network is currently (18,422 LINK) * ($10/LINK) * (3.34 as etherscan.io’s data only gives first 5000 tx per day which averages to 7:10am) * (52 wk/year) = USD $31,995,329 turnover a year. Note: the below paragraph is old analysis using traditional stock market Price/Earnings ratios which several users have now pointed out isn't really applicable in crypto. I leave it for the record. Assuming all of that is profit (which it’s not given tx fees at the very least), LINK would need a PE ratio (Price/Earnings) of 100 times to justify its current (undiluted) valuation of $3.5 billion of 300 if you count the other 65% of tokens that haven’t been dumped by the founders/devs yet. For comparison, common PE ratios are 32 (facebook), 29 (google), 37 (uber), 20 (twitter on a good year), 10 (good hedge fund returning 10% annual).
Thoughts on DeFi & yield-farming - [TODO]
Why would exchanges who do their due diligence list LINK, let alone at a leverage? 1) that's their business, they take a cut of every transaction, overhyped or not, 2) they're not safe from listing openly bearish tokens like EIDOS (troll token that incentivized users to make FAKE transactions, response to EOS) https://www.coindesk.com/defi-yield-farming-comp-token-explained The current ANNUAL yield on liquidity/yield farming is something like 2% on STABLE tokens like USDC and TETHER which at least have most of their supply backed by real-world assets. If Chainlink LINK staking is to be successful, they'll have to achieve at LEAST that same 2% at end-state. IF LINK is in bubble territory and drops, that's a lot of years at 2% waiting to recoup losses.
SmartContract Team & Past Projects
Normally I don't like focussing on people because it leads too easily to ad-hominem attacks on personality rather than on technology/numbers as I've done above, but I came across this and didn't like what I saw. Steve Ellis, SmartContract's current CTO, co-founded and worked in "Secure Asset Exchange" from 2014 to 2016. They developed the NXT blockchain, issued 1,000,000,000 NXT tokens (remind you of anything?), NXT was listed end of 2013 and saw 3 quick 500%-1000% pumps and subsequent dumps in early in mid 2014, and then declined to . SecureAE officially shut down in Jan 2016. Then at some point a company called Jelurida acquired the rights to NXT (presumably after SecureAE?), then during the 2017 altcoin craze NXT pumped 300 times to a market cap of $1.8 BILLION and then dumped back down 100 times and now it's a dead project with a market cap of $13 million. https://www.linkedin.com/in/steveellis0606/ https://trade.secureae.com/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/nxt/ https://www.jelurida.com/news/lawsuit-against-apollo-license-violations As an investor or business owner, would you invest/hire a company whose co-founders/CTO's last project was a total flop with a price history chart that's textbook pump-and-dump behaviour? (and in this case, we KNOW the end result - 99% losses for investors) If you're Google/Oracle/SWIFT/Intel, would you partner with them?
Open questions for the Chainlink community and investors:
Network activity: Are there any other currently active chainlink nodes other than those listed on market.link and reputation.link? If so, is there a list of them with usage statistics? Do they use some other token than LINK and thus making simple analytics of the LINK ERC20 token not an accurate representation of Chainlink’s actual activity? If the nodes listed on the two sites above ARE currently the main nodes, then
PR, partnership announcements: Why is the google tweet still pinned to the top of Chainlink’s twitter? Due to the frequently circulated Chainlink promotion material (https://chainlinkecosystem.com/) that lists Google as one of the key partners, this tweet being pinned is potentially misleading as there isn't anything in there to merit calling Google a "collaborator" or "partner" - just that blockchains/oracles *can* use Google's APIs (but so can most software in the world). Is there something else going on with the SmartContract-Google relationship that warrants calling Google a partner that we're simply not aware of yet?
By buying LINK, what backs YOUR money: If you have bought and currently hold LINK tokens, how comfortable are you that the future promise of your investment growing is supported on verifiable business and technological grounds versus pure, parabolic hype? If after reading this post you still are, I kindly ask you to reply and show how even one of the points I provided is either incorrect or not applicable, and I will edit my post and include your feedback in the relevant section as I have already done from other users.
What have I missed? Of course not 100% of what I've said is infallible truth. I am a real human, and I have plenty of biases and blind spots. Even if what I've provided is technically correct, there may be other much more important info that I've missed that eclipses what I've provided here. Ask yourself: if the current hype around LINK is indeed valid and points to a $100/$1000 future LINK price, then Where’s Chainlink’s missing financial/performance/usage evidence to justify LINK’s current valuation of $10+?
For your consideration, I have provided evidence with links that you can follow and verify, and draw your own conclusions. I have made my case as to why I believe the LINK token is currently priced much higher than evidence supports, and I ask you to peer-review my analysis and share your thoughts with me and with the wider LINK/crypto community. Thank you for your time, I realize this is a long post. All questions and feedback welcome, feel free to comment or PM. I won't delete/censoblock (except for personal threats, safety considerations etc). I am a real human but I am not revealing my true identity for obvious privacy/harassment reasons. (If anyone is wondering about my credentials ability to add 2+2 and work with basic spreadsheets: I have previously won a math competition in a USA state, I won an English-speaking country's physics olympiad, my university education is in mathematical physics/optimization engineering, and I worked for a few years in a global manufacturing company doing data analytics, obviously I'm not posting my CV here to verify that but I promise you it's the truth) I’m not looking to spread neither FUD, nor blind faith, nor pure hype, and I want an honest transparent objective discussion. I personally believe more that LINK is overvalued, but my beliefs have evolved and may continue to do so as I research more and understand more about Chainlink, LINK, Ethereum, DeFi, and other related topics, and as I incorporate YOUR feedback. If you think I haven't disclosed something, ask. As always, this is not financial advice and I am not liable for anything that may happen as a result of you reading this!
Geeq - A serious contender for the most game changing project of 2020.
Recently Posted in the Geeq Trading Channel by a community ambassador. I'd like to officially welcome all the new people to the Geeq community, this is going to be long but I'd just like to say a few words and get it out of the way. I've talked with (username removed) about the discussions of other projects in this channel, we agreed to let it happen until the official launch of the Geeq token as this is a community trading channel, and it isn’t trading as of yet. In a way it’s important to acknowledge the good and bad about the macro outlook of crypto so people can learn from the mistakes together, and we don’t want to discourage thoughtful and informative dialogue. (username removed) and I are community members, whatever we do or say may not be used against the Geeq core as of such so please take our views as just personal opinions, we will have many of them lol. The Why’s? Why did I invest in Geeq? Why did my initial evaluation increase week on week on the marketcap of Geeq?, before I really looked into Geeq I had a sell price point at $1, this was 9 months ago. Why am I now seeing the bigger picture of the potential behemoth Geeq is? Why is the team willing to work for free for all these years? Why is the marketing team doing this for free? They have a very lucrative business before they joined the wing’s of the Geeq protocol (and they still do). Why is it for free? Why is the team decked with the most experience individuals in their fields? Why is Ric Asselstine, the gentlemen that helped build Canada’s biggest software company doing $5 billion revenue a year dedicating so many years on Geeq’s protocol? Why is John P. Conley with all his insane credentials in game theory, mechanism design, mathematical economics, and public theory join the team and do it for free for all these years? Why is Stephanie So, CDO & Founder of Geeq dedicate all these years working for free for Geeq? She was the first to use machine learning on social science data at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications, and recently Dell named her top 4 Influential Women in tech, why is she doing this? Why is Lun-Shin Yuen working on Geeq for free? He was the THIRD engineer working there, they are now worth $77.23 Billion in market share and doing over $6.7 Billion of revenue a year. Why is he here? Why is Eric Ball the former treasurer of Oracle between 2005-2015 involved in Geeq? I looked up how well he managed the $60 billion Larry Ellison had, while he was in charge, Larry peaked to the 4th richest person in the world, Mr Ball was managing his money during then, so what does that say? Why is Ian Smith, a savant and expert in network and OS security and system theory working here for free? He is fluent in 20 coding languages, He helped teach Linux at Nasa, why is this gentlemen here? Why did Dr Yeap reach out to the Geeq team to join as an Advisor? He has dozens of patents under him that run for decade’s long. Why Did Kurt Hoppe, the current Director at Google of Product Management in the Android Automotive sector of Google join as an advisor recently? He is a Board member in the Internet of things consortium, Former Global Head of Innovation at General Motors and former Director at LG Electronics Smart Home & Smart TV, why is he wanting to get involved with Geeq? These are few of my personal opinions. Because they are thinking 100 years ahead, not 1 year ahead. Currently crypto is full of people that are looking to make a quick buck, this isn’t one of them, sure you may make some money but why sell yourself short when you look at the product they have designed, created, protected and about to implement to the world of technology. It’s the best security in software, BFT tolerance is 99%, Sybil, Wealth and Nation-State proof, money cannot determine the control of the protocol, hash power cannot determine the control of the protocol. This is huge, this isn’t the buzz word, no one gets excited over security, but to me it’s the biggest deal in the technology world, from this point on, anyone who builds on this is inherently protected from future law suits (e.g. hacks losing peoples funds) due to potential corruption in chains, what the ledger says, says as John puts it. It cannot be changed for any sort of benefit to an individual or nation-state, This means it’s appealing to IoT applications such as Smart cars (corrupt the data and you could drive a car off the cliff), Telemetry, streaming payments, peer to peer content, literally anything you can think of, this would be the best platform to do it with. Micropayments- 1/100th of a cent, streaming and paying per second can now be done due to this. Anonymous- No point showing everyone’s detail’s such as buying personal goods at a store, no one needs to know this type of data, it’s logical in the way it displays important information and weeds out unnecessary public data. Trustless- Edge Security, you can see as an individual who is playing by the rules or not. AMP- Algorithmic Monetary Policy embedded and coded to reduce the risk of sharp drops/sharp pumps, healthy flow. As stated in the White Paper as an example: “A 25 node network running at 20 TPS allows 630M transactions per year and creates 630GB of chain data. Transactions cost users $.0001 each and this generates a total of $62k revenue per year. Approximately $1.7k in $GEEQ is paid to each node per year for their validation services. Geeq receives $21k in annual revenue from one such geeqchain instance.” (Ref: Section 7.1). This is ONE example, ONE chain, it does not represent ONE company, it could be ONE function of ONE Company, my point is, this is scalable to the billions of IoT devices, this has no limit of data input, If you are using Geeq in a smart city, it will be doing Billions of transactions a day. Just one example. In 2017 there was 7 Billion IoT devices, 2019 the devices reached 26.66 Billion, During 2020 it’s expected to be 31 Billion IoT Devices, this is a growing market as you can tell, this is the future, Geeq will capitalize on this. The list goes on and on and on and on and on and on and on. So since this is a trading channel, this is my opinion as to why this may exceed a lot of peoples price points in the long-term. We have no chart to determine the value of this coin, but what you can value it is on the target market, potential marketshare, the teams credentials, the protocol’s potential, the protection of the protocol (patent). A lot of people coming in here throwing numbers out without any actual real evidence to back it up, everyone has there own personal opinion on prices, which is fine but please make the most educated guess you can with the information you have as of now, now rethink to yourself what Geeq is doing, and why I’m so bullish. This is the beginning, since Geeq is built on decentralization, it’s important we act as a community and treat each other with respect, this is a long journey and it’s just starting, this channel should be used to lean on each other and build a very healthy community because this is a very long road, the Geeq team lead by example by showing how much patience they have, they answer the same questions every 30 minutes, I have not seen a TG group that has done this with such respect to random people ( This was a big reason why I went all in). This has the right mixture to be really something big, and I really hope everyone here does their research on Geeq, I’m not technical but I can see what the vision is, what is my price point? How can you value the most powerful team, protocol and vision in crypto? You can’t put a price on a protocol that will be setting the standard. Website: https://geeq.io One Pager: https://geeq.io/one-page White Paper: https://geeq.io/geeq-white-paper-2/ Tokenomics: https://geeq.io/tokenomics/ Team: https://geeq.io/people/ Token Release Date/Time: https://geeq.io/geeq-token-generation-event/ I hope you enjoyed the read and take a look into the project. I genuinely think this is the biggest project of the year with enormous potential. Look at all the shitcoins that take off and then look at this team and the ambitions and development behind it and it will quickly become clear that this is the one hell of a project.
COM: $83k Mcap Token That Gives You Control Over Project Decisions (5x Potential)
Two days ago, I posted about Community Token (COM) and encouraged everyone to get in while it was at a low price of $0.10. Now, it’s trading at double the price and the COM telegram has 113 new members, hungry to take this coin to $1 and beyond- another 4-5x from here. And here’s why think $1+ is going to happen…and can be life changing for you if you get in now. You see, with most coins, what ends up happening is the team (and some whales) ends up gets rich while ordinary buyers like you and I get dumped on. This is because there’s so much that goes on behind the scenes that the public doesn’t know about. COM is a Token That Gives You A Voice The Community Token is based on a totally different-yet-proven model because important project decisions are not made by a small team but instead by the community of COM holders. This means there is full transparency and you also have some control over the future of the project. Rather than being at the whims of a centralized team (or whales) that controls most of the supply and will do sneaky stuff behind closed doors. And speaking of supply, let’s look at the tokenomics which are among the best I’ve seen in the crypto space. COM’s Tokenomics (The “Pumpamentals”) First of all, the supply of COM is deflationary meaning tokens get burned with every transaction. This means by nature, your COM tokens become more valuable over time as the total supply decreases. You’ve probably heard of AMPL, XAMP, RMPL are all examples of deflation tokens that have done extremely well. Imagine getting into those at the very beginning. The COM token currently has a total supply of 955,072 and it decreases 1% with each transaction. - 30% of the tokens are set as reserves, locked for 1 year. - 20% is in the Uniswap Liquidity pool, and is locked for 1 year. - 15% is reserved for community development - and these funds will be transferred to a multi-sig wallet meaning a select # of community members must approve of the transaction. This prevents the developer from dumping these tokens himself. - The developer only has 5% of total supply and you can check Etherscan to verify he hasn’t sold a single cent - There are only 121 holders right now and ZERO whales - check the token contract to verify for yourself What Happens If You Just Grab 2 ETH of COM right now? So that makes the current circulating supply of COM only 525,289 (taking into account the reserved tokens in the multi-sig wallet). At $.0.21 per token (current market price), that’s a market cap of $110,310. Meaning if you just buy just 3 ETH, you get 5389 tokens or almost 1% of the entire supply. And if we are in a true bull market like myself and other firmly believe, the market cap of almost every single coin is going to skyrocket to face melting levels over the upcoming weeks/months. This means when the COM project reaches a mere $1M market cap, your 1% of coins will be worth $10,000. If this reaches $10M, that will be $100,000, and so on. (By the way, the tokenomics are very similar to BOMB token which has an ATH of $15) Anyway, I know price is always speculative in crypto, but I do want you to see the true potential in this gem that most people are overlooking because it’s not being shilled everywhere (yet). *A Real Project With A Passionate and Talented Community\* The facts of the matter is, this is a legitimate project led by a talented and transparent developer. And backed by a passionate community that you’ll love being part of. So far, COM has only done a ~2X from presale price, and ~3x from it’s bottom. With even the most worthless projects pumping during this DeFi madness, there’s no reason this can’t go another 5x from here - and the best part is, there’s still time for you to join and get in on this ride! Thanks for reading and as always DYOR! Official website: https://communitytoken.network/ (This was the original website. A few days after launch, the community decided it was too amateur-looking and now they're completely rebranding for a cleaner look, to appeal those who "judge a book by its cover") PS- This is probably going to be my final reddit post about COM. Once we have our key community members ready, we're going to launch the next phase of marketing. PSS. Obviously, don’t buy just because I said so. Look into it for yourself to verify everything I'm saying is true. If you find something different, post a comment below. I truly believe this is a gem in sea of shitcoins, and I just don’t want you to be kicking yourself when you start seeing COM all over Crypto Twitter and being mentioned by YouTube influencers in the upcoming weeks ;) EDIT: Updated the current circulating supply/token price
Why I’m Doubling Down on $COM With My XAMP/TOB Profits
I was fortunate enough to get in early on XAMP developer Bill Drummond’s new project, Token of Babble (TOB), and I’m putting my profits into COM - a community-based project which I believe will 4x from here in the short term, and possibly 20x in the long term. I know you're skeptical but to understand why I'm so confident, here’s some background on Bill’s launch: Upon launch, Bill’s new project Token of Babble (TOB), generated over $7 million USD of trading volume on Uniswap and the price rose from $0.6 to $14 in just a matter of hours. It was one of the most epic launches in crypto history, and the people who got in early were able to make life-changing money in less than 24 hours. The success of TOB suggests a few interesting things about the current bull-cycle we’re in:
We really are in full-on alt season. Tiny projects are achieving 10-100x in just a short amount of time.
People do trust projects led by devs who are anonymous as long as they are transparent and know what they’re doing. Website graphics don’t matter anymore and everyone knows a fancy website can still mean scam.
Coins with tokenomics designed to create FOMO will inevitably pump (more on this in a bit)
So that’s exactly why I’m buying this current COM dip ($0.5) and waiting for at least a 4x to $2 before even thinking about selling. Why? Because
COM’s tokenomics are similar to TOB in that they’re both deflationary. Every transaction burns 1% of the token, making the total supply smaller and the tokens more valuable over time.
COM is a community-first project where the trueVALUE comes from the community, not the programming talent of the devs. What makes COM special is it's a community-driven project that weeds out bad actors in the space, while rewarding good behavior. The community is governed by the COM token which inherently increases in value over time, rather than decrease in value with an inflationary supply like most tokens. So does this mean exactly?
If you buy and hold COM, your tokens become more valuable over time because the total COM supply decreases. This means you own a bigger % of the marketcap.
Now, this may not seem like a big deal since most people will ever own less than 1% of the market cap. But imagine when the new money from ETH & LINK buyers continue flowing down into alts (like the Dave Portnoy boys). And of a sudden COM is a 10 million+ market cap coin. It’s happened with lots of tiny cap alts in the ’15 and ’17 cycles, and it will happen again (that’s why they’re called cycles). A lot of investors and traders are ignoring COM because it’s not a sexy hyped-up DeFi Ponzi-coin at the moment. But what they miss is the fact that you also have a passionate, unified community with full transparency and doing all they can to grow the hell out of this project. Just check out their telegram chat if you don’t believe me. When you join, instead of moonbois posting Pepe memes or people fudding and trolling, you’ll see a group of people engaged in productive discussion about how to grow the community. You see people taking their own initiative to spread the word about COM. And you’ll even see members warning others about scams while helping out the newer guys. It’s really refreshing to see this as opposed the usual fudders, trolls and moonbois posting ridiculous gifs and memes (although that stuff can be fun too at times). So TLDR; I’m extremely bullish on COM because of the strong community, transparent dev and leadership team, and low market cap (only $350k with deflationary supply, and zero whales …shhhhh). I think as more money comes into Uniswap (the Uni trade volume surpassed COINBAISE a few days ago), COM is going to pop another 4-5x in the short term. *COM stats:\* - Total supply: ~950K - Circulating supply: ~700k - Current Mcap: $350k COM Roadmap
New website will be live late august (check their TG for a preview)
Twitter and FB content starting this week
Paid ads starting next week
Official whitepaper live late august
Defi partners announce in beginning of Sept once negotiations are complete
Staking dApp launching mid Sept
Learn more about COM: http://communitytoken.network/ P.S. The current website is the original COM website. After the project launched, community members decided it needed rebranding and have already drafted a new version set to launch in 2 weeks. Within that same week, it grew from 200 to now 700 telegram members, got listed on Coingecko, and secured DeFi partnerships, all while the price and marketcap grew. As always, DYOR, but as you can hopefully tell, I’ve done mine and COM looks one of the best low-cap bets right now.
Decentr ($DEC) - foundational cross-chain and cross-platform DeFi protocol
Decentr is a protocol designed to make blockchain/DLT mainstream by allowing DeFi applications built on various blockchains to “talk to each other”. Decentr is a 100% secure and decentralised Web 3.0 protocol where users can apply PDV (personal data value) to increase APR on $DEC that users loan out as part of of our DeFi dLoan features, as well as it being applied at PoS when paying for stuff online. Decentr is also building a BAT competitor browser and Chrome/Firefox extension that acts as a gateway to 100% decentralised Web 3.0
Allows DeFi Dapps to access all Decentr’s dFintech features, including dLoan, dPay. Key innovation is that the protocols is based on a user’s ability to leverage the value of their data as exchangeable “currency”.
Decentr is building foundational chain-agnostic protocols that will support “true” 100% DeFi Dapps, a 100% secure and decentralised, user-centric alt economy. DeFi dApps inter-connected by Decentr can talk to each other and share PDV (personal data value) of their users. PDV is best described as a personalized “exchange rate” (in a sense social reputation where more effort leads to more rewards and NOT more capital to more rewards. ) between currencies that users apply at point-of-sale to make the cost of goods and services cheaper online. PDV is applied to the APR users earn on $DEC (native token) that they hold that they loan out as part of the investing pool. PDV will also allow uncollateralized loans on their dLoan platform, and also on platforms like Aave and Compound.
Decentr will implement ZKsync to get super cheap and super fast transactions across the ETH network. It is also working with HoloChain and Tomochain to allow connect their DeFi ecosystem to the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem. Decentr has DEEP TIES and a PARTNERSHIP with Holochain: https://medium.com/@DecentrNet/decentr-holochain-ama-29d662caed03
Decentr is also building a browser and Chrome/Firefox extension - a gateway that “transitions” Web 2.0 into a 100% decentralised Web 3.0 via their suite of decentralised dFintech and dCommunications features. The browser adds a 100% decentralised “user layer” to current blockchain protocols so that applications built on blockchain can actually “talk to each other”. The browser uses encryption all the time and the power of blockchain to keep private keys safe. Browser will offer a more robust and innovative type of blockchain storage and caching that is much faster than VPN or TOR. It will allow surfing .onion addresses as well as the regular ones. >>BAT browser 400m marketcap, DEC marketcap 4m<<
Decentr is researching a hardware application, powered by Decentr software, that would greatly enhance current IoT networks. It’s called a “Smart Chip Node” (SCN) and will adhere to 4G LTE standards (with in-built 5G capability), which means connectivity between devices will match or exceed current speed and connectivity, dramatically improving stability and coverage of standalone devices, such as a laptop or tablet, as well as IoT devices, such as home routers and modems.
Decentr uses Coinbase API to optimise integrated implementation of the user layer and Blockchain as a Service (BaaS) to allow users to leverage cloud-based solutions to build, host and use their own blockchain apps. Tierion’s technological infrastructure, the Chainpoint Proof protocol, will come into play whenever a user adds something in Tierion’s data store. Hyperledger Fabric and R3 Corda private blockchains are used as an immutable transaction database for data transfers, including the following tech: R3 Corda, Hyperledger Fabric, Ansible, Bitbucket Pipelines, AWS, Node.JS, GoLang, Kotlin and CouchDB.
Implements a system of layered security protocols based on a radically-new software architecture that combines Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC)4 and Sobol sequencing with a n-dimensional chain as part of AI-enhanced, platform-wide community consensus mechanism — a mechanism that assigns mutually agreed value to data and user security protocol upgrades (further encouraging enhanced data integrity) by deploying a Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS) protocol.
Bank of England has reached out to Decenr to discuss the potential of a UK CBDC upon hearing about the potential of their tech. Decentr is consistent with their own R&D into a "dGBP" and they requested a top-level document for review >> Decentr created this proposal: https://decentr.net/files/Decentr_Consultancy_Doc_UK_CBDC.pdf
A fee is charged for every transaction using dPay whereby an exchange takes place between money (fiat and digital) and data, and vice versa, either as part of DeFi features or via a dApp built on Decentr. They are launching pilot programmes in the following industries:
Banking/PSP Industry: On Product launch, due to Decentr’s powerful PSP connections (including the worlds #2 PSP by volume), a medium-scale pilot program will be launched, which will seed the network with 150,000 PSP customers in primarily the Spanish/LAC markets, generating revenue from day one.
“Bricks and Mortar” Supermarket/Grocery Industry: Decentr aims to ensure the long-term competitiveness of “bricks and mortar” supermarkets against online-only grocery retailers, such as Amazon, by a) building secure tech that allows supermarkets to digitise every aspect of their supply chains and operational functions, while b) allowing supermarkets to leverage this incredibly valuable data as a liquid asset class. Expected revenue by Year 5: $114Mn per year.
Online Advertising Industry: Decentr’s 100% decentralised platform credits users secure data with payable value, in the form of PDV, for engaging with ads. The Brave browser was launched in 2012 and in 8 years has reached over 12 million monthly active users, accented by as many as 4.3 million daily active users.
TOKEN $DEC AND SALE
Decentr recently complete their token sale on a purchase portal powered by Dolomite where they raised $974,000 in 10 minutes for a total sale hardcap of 1.25M. The $DEC token is actively trading on multiple exchanges including Uniswap and IDEX. Listed for free on IDEX, Hotbit, Hoo, Coinw, Tidex, BKex. Listed on CoinGecko and Coinmarketcap. Listed on Delta and Blockfolio apps. ➡️ Circulating supply: 61m $DEC. ➡️ Release schedule and token distribution LINK -> NO RELEASE UNTIL 2021.
A tradeable unit of value that is both internal and external to the Decentr platform.A unit of conversion between fiat entering and exiting the Decentr ecosystem.A way to capture the value of user data and combines the activity of every participant of the platform performing payment (dPay), or lending and borrowing (dLend), i.e a way to peg PDV to tangible/actionable value.Method of payment in the Decentr ecosystem.A method to internally underwrite the “Deconomy.
Why I believe too many SPOs are barking up the wrong tree and what I think they can do better
Yet another opinion about which stake pools to choose or why the system currently is broken/unfaicentralizing? No, but an attempt to find a more positive approach. For the impatient, here's a way too short and exaggerated TL;DR: I think SPOs should consider to stop selling their stake pool as if it's a commodity like rice and instead rather start building a solid identity for their pools. I have spent quite some time scanning through, pooltool.io , CardanoStakePools and cardano including the comments in the last couple of days, initially to see if I can find a stake pool that I like better. Here's what I observed:
Beautifully designed web pages
Explanations about pledge / fees and top competitive ROS
Explanations about what Cardano and ADA is
Description of the pool setup with technicalities I don't comprehend
Profiles of the operators mentioning their experience, sometimes their names, sometimes with their location
0% pool margin as temporary offer
Frequent naming of pool tickers in comment sections in this sub
"I'm going to donate/spend x% of pool rewards on charity/project/pledge"
Even if you cover most or all of the above points, I won't know why you bothered setting up a pool. Sometimes it's clear that you want to make money, sometimes it's clear that you want to be nonprofit. Most of times it's stated that the pool cares about Cardano, which separates that pool from the very small minority of the pools being operated by actors that also operate mining/staking pools of other coins. So what do I think you're doing wrong then? I get the impression that most times I get told what the SPO thinks I want to hear: Obviously I must be interested in earning as much as possible and if not I must want the ADA I'm missing out on going to a good case, right? That's not necessary what they try to tell but that's at least for me the message I hear. And they are putting their money where their mouth is, they give up margin or they spend on top hardware/cloud service for top security and they invest countless hours on keeping the pool safe and running. ...and they stay often unrecognizable if one would anonymize the names and take away the pictures and layouts from the websites, just leaving the bare information about the pool. Most pools are very good at explaining what they are doing (and let's face it they are essentially all doing the same in different flavours) and sometimes they are quite good in explaining how they are doing it. There's very few pools out there that describe why they do what they do, which is awesome, yet it could often use some more conciseness. Too abstract and you don't understand what I'm getting at? I would neither, here's an example how I can express myself: "I care about Cardano, I've been invested in it since 2017. Since Shelley has been released, it seems that there's some centralization happening on the pools, which I don't like. I want many small pools to be successful. I'm writing this post because I want Cardano to be successful and gain money from it." Sounds kind of bland, no? Could have been written by anyone and is probably not very relatable. Let's try again: "I want to provide meaningful inputs, so that others are enabled to do the same and so we can make the world a better place. Furthermore I want to create value with what I do, encourage personal growth and make sure that what I do is not at the expense of others. Learning about Cardano, I realized that their aim to decentralize financial identity and push power to the edges is well in line with my core values, which is why I really care about it being successful in changing the world. I noticed that many pools seem to run in the wrong direction in my opinion and I at least want to attempt to help them getting better in promoting their pools and becoming successful, so that not a small elite of pools creates an oligarchy in the long run. Very often I can tell that there is a very good motivation behind a pool but there's no way to be sure because it's not communicated clearly and I'd be happy if this would change and the power gets properly pushed to the edges." I started with why I do things and then transitioned to how I want to get things done and underlined it by what I do, why I'm invested in Cardano. I'll leave it to the reader to decide which of the above statements is more convincing that the actor behind it has an honest motivation and is not in for the greed. For the SPOs who are not solely in the game to make money (I feel that's the majority), I invite you to ask yourself: What seems more trustworthy to you: Someone telling you what they care about decentralization and their actions being in line with that or someone telling you the same but then they also do some of the following: aggressive marketing with entry treats e.g. 0% margin, giveaways; dropping pool tickers left and right without proper context or multiplying their pools? On the flip side: Which customer do you trust more to stick around when things would go sideways: The one who joined your pool even though you don't have the best ROS but your ideals resonated with them or the one who delegated because you did a giveaway? And how confident are you about your delegated stake staying in your pool if you have to cut the x% donated for the good cause for some time to be able to cover your costs? I'm not advocating to give up those diversifying strategies altogether and I'm not saying that no one should donate part of their ROS but that one should be very aware of which trade offs those strategies carry and maybe consider making them a supporting aspect of why you are running a pool rather than your main selling point. It would seem to me that way you're less endangered of commoditizing your pool. And let's be frank: The commodity market has only space for a few, not everyone can have the highest efficiency, especially not when we want to be globally spread. That being sad, if your are only in for the money and you run a pool because you think that Cardano is going to be the best cow to milk in the crypto environment. Please don't let me distract you, that's absolutely legitimate and to be expected too, go do your thing and good luck with competing in the unforgiving battlefield of the commodity market. To give credit: That's not all just my ideas I'm mainly applying what I learned in a video, well in the according book but oh well: Check it out if you're curious -> Simon Sinek: Start with Why And as an end thought: Maybe a pools selling point is not ROS or blocks per epoch but trust, they are the guardians of Cardano after all.
Updated list of Global Beermoney opportunities (+180!) - June 2020
Updated list of Global Beermoney opportunities (+180!) - June 2020
The current, and now previous, Beermoney Global list started nearly 5 years ago. It’s been updated and has grown over all that time, but it also became a hassle to keep current. It was time to build a new list from scratch based on my experience in the Beermoney world over all these years and all the contributions all of you have been making in this sub. The lists consist of opportunities that are available in at least one country that is not the US. This means there are sites which only work in Canada or the UK. There’s sites which are open to the whole world, but this does not mean everyone can really earn something on it. It’s all still very demographic and therefore location dependent. This list should give you a starting point to try out and find what works for you. I’m not using everything myself as I prefer to focus on a few, so not all are tested by me. They are found in this sub, other subreddits and other resources where people claim to have success. I’ve chosen the format of a simple table with the bare minimum of information to keep things clean. It includes a link, how you earn, personal payment proof if available and sign-up bonus codes if applicable. Some of these bonuses are also one-time use codes specifically made for this sub! For the ones I don’t have payment proof (yet) feel free to provide some as a comment or via modmail so others know it’s legit. I am working on detailed instructions for each method that I personally use which will include things like cashout minimum, cashout options, tips & tricks,... For now I’ve split things up based on the type of earning like passive or mobile. Because of this there’s sometimes an overlap as some are both passive and on mobile or both earning crypto and a GPT (Get Paid To) website. The lists are obviously not complete so I invite you to keep posting new ones in the sub, as a comment to this post, or in modmail. Especially if you have sites or apps which work for one single specific country I can start building a list, just like I did for The Netherlands and Belgium. If you recognize things which are in fact scams or not worth it let me know as well.
Get Paid To (Surveys, tasks, offers, videos, clicking links, play games, searching)
For The Netherlands there are a few very good options next to a bunch of ‘spaarprogramma’s. There ‘spaarprogramma’s are all the same where you receive and click a bunch of e-mails, advertisements, banners,... I advise you to create a separate e-mail address or use a good filter in your inbox as you will be spammed to death. I believe they can be a nice piece of beermoney but they take quite the effort.
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