The report itself is on 2005-2034 plus appendices (especially Appendix D 2053-55). The response of the NY Fed is on 2055-2079. We see here a kind of re-negotiation of the relationship between the Fed and the private security dealers, as part of the transition away from war finance conditions toward an imagined post-war normalcy. As always in American monetary affairs, this is a negotiation between the money interest motivated by profit and the public interest motivated by stability. In 1952, the concern was about exit from the abnormal financial conditions of wartime. At present, our concern is about exit from the abnormal financial conditions of the global financial crisis. One way to connect the document to the money view that we are studying is to think of the Fed transitioning from making the inside spread (pegging price), to making the outside spread (preventing disorderly conditions), and from holding the price of money constant to adapting the price of money to current economic conditions.
The impact of these operations is not measured by the volume of transactions alone. It is much greater, for example, than the impact of a similar volume of purchases and sales by a private investor. The Federal Open Market Committee releases or absorbs reserve funds when it operates in the Government securities market. When the Committee buys, it augments not only its own holdings of Government securities but also the ability of other investors to enter the market on the bid side. Conversely, when the Committee sells Government securities, it does much more than add to the market supply of such securities. The reserves that it absorbs substract (sic) also from the capacity of the banking system to carry Government securities.If the government buys a Treasury, then, as far as the rest of the economy is concerned, the Treasury has been replaced with reserves. On the other hand, if a private investor buys a Treasury, then as far as the rest of the economy is concerned, the Treasury has been replaced with deposits.
They cause changes in the prices of the specific issues bought or sold, and affect opportunities for arbitrage as between various issues and sectors of the market. As a result, a new pattern of yields emerges as between all different issues and sectors of the market. When the readjustments have worked themselves out, both the prices of Government securities and the pattern of their yields will have been affected.Mehrling emphasized the reserve effect when he described the monetary policy transmission mechanism back in Lecture 12, but I think it's also important to keep in mind the direct effect on Treasury prices as well.
When such borrowing is low, the tone of the money market is easy, that is, funds tend to be easily available at going interest rates for all borrowers who are acceptable as credit risks. When member banks themselves are heavily in debt to the Federal Reserve banks, the tone of the money market is tight, that is, marginal loans are deferred and even better credit risks may have to shop around for accommodation.Hmm. So the tightness or easiness of the money market can move independently from the interest rate. I suppose one way to think about it is that banks are always going to lend at whatever the going rate is, but if money is tight, they're going to lend less. Of course, the way they lend less is by quoting higher rates.
These responses seem to be independent, to some extent, of the level of interest rates, or of the discount rate. For example, the tone of the money market might be easy even though the discount rate were 4 percent. This would happen mainly in a situation where the volume of member-bank borrowing was low. Conversely, the tone of the money market might be on the tight side when the discount rate was 1% percent. This would occur when member banks were heavily in debt.
The fact that the tone of the money market is responsive to the level of member bank borrowing at the Reserve banks gives a unique character to the role of open-market operations in the effectuation of credit and monetary policy. They can be used flexibly to offset the net impact on bank reserves of other sources of demand and supply of reserve funds in such a way as to result in an increase or decrease of member-bank borrowing, or, if desired, to maintain a level of such borrowing that is fairly constant from week to week, or month to month. This means that when the Federal Open Market Committee decides that a tone of tightness, or ease, or moderation, in the money markets would promote financial equilibrium and economic stability, it has the means at hand to make the decision effective.Again, the point that's being made here is that because the interest rate and the availability of credit are two separate variables. Even if credit would hypothetically be more available at a lower interest rate, it's also possible to make credit more available at the current market interest rate—i.e. change the "tone" of the money market. Open market operations help with changing the tone, whereas changing the discount rate does not.
Changes in the discount rate cannot be used in this way. They can exert powerful effects upon the general level of interest rates, but cannot be counted on to insure that the relative availability or unavailability of credit at those rates will be appropriate to the requirements of financial equilibrium and economic stability.
In short, open market operations are not simply another instrument of Federal Reserve policy, equivalent or alternative to changes in discount rates or in Reserve requirements. They provide a continuously available and flexible instrument of monetary policy for which there is no substitute, an instrument which affects the liquidity of the whole economy. They permit the Federal Reserve System to maintain continuously a tone of restraint in the market when financial and economic conditions call for restraint, or a tone of ease when that is appropriate. They constitute the only effective means by which the elasticity that was built into our monetary and credit structure by the Federal Reserve Act can be made to serve constructively the needs of the economy. Without them, that elasticity would often operate capriciously and even perversely to the detriment of the economy.It's interesting that the Fed ended up using open-market operations as a way of targeting interest rates, when this text is emphasizing the important differences between open market operations and interest rate policy. I wonder what they would have had to say about a world with interest on excess reserves in which reserves are not a constraint on the banking system.
(10) The Federal Reserve stands in a key position with respect to the entire money and capital market in this country and particularly with respect to the Government securities market. System contacts with the market for United States Government securities take four main forms—transactions in Government securities made for the account of the system, extension of credit by a Federal Reserve bank to the nonbank recognized dealers through purchases of short-term securities under repurchase agreement, transactions made as agent for Treasury and foreign accounts or for member banks, and the gathering and dissemination of information on developments in the Government securities market. Aside from some transactions executed by the other Reserve banks for the acount (sic) of member banks, these points of system contact with the market are focused at the trading desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.Mostly in this class, we focus on the first two of these. We probably take the hybridity of the Fed for granted by now. They influence the private markets by dealing in government debt.
(14) The policy of confining open market account business to a small group was adopted by the Federal Open Market Committee in 1944 in an attempt to deal only with that portion of the market where the final effort at matching private purchases and sales takes place. This approach was based on the hope that by operating closely with a small group of key dealers responsive to its discipline, the Federal Open Market Committee could peg a pattern of low interest yields in a period of heavy war financing with minimum monetization of the debt.It's interesting that they were trying to achieve low yield pegs without monetizing the debt. In other words, they wanted to prop up the price of government debt without buying it outright. It's not clear to me how they would be able to achieve this by working with the primary dealers. Were they asking the dealers to hold the excess government debt on their own balance sheets so the Fed doesn't have to? If so, it's not clear to me how private dealers promising to hold excess Treasuries would have much of a different effect from the Fed holding them outright.
(122) The present system of official dealer recognition instituted by the Federal Open Market Committee in 1944 was an element in a technique of open market operations designed to peg the yield curve on Government securities and at the same time minimize the monetization of public debt. This technique was based on the hope that the yields on Government securities could be pegged with only a few securities monetized by the Federal Open Market Committee if all offers to the committee had to pass first through a very limited number of dealers with whom the committee would maintain intimate and confidential relations, and who would be required by the committee to make strenuous efforts to find other buyers for securities in the marketplace before they looked to the committee for residual relief.Maybe the key is that the private dealers don't add reserves to the system when they buy the debt? This allows the Fed to keep credit conditions tight (tone of the money market) while keeping interest rates low. In other words, the government can borrow cheaply without making it too easy for everyone else to borrow? Since the dollar was still connected to gold back then, maybe this made more sense than it would today. Today, I'm not sure if there's a downside for the government to be paying higher interest rates on their borrowing.
(123) The inexorable march of events on which that hope foundered is now a matter of history. The facts are that debt was monetized in volume and that the country suffered a serious inflation until the Federal Open Market Committee abandoned the pegs. The basic reason, therefore, that seemed to justify a small privileged dealer group no longer exists. The technique of which it was an integral part did not work out according to expectations and failed of its purpose.Well, that at least partly answers that question. Maybe keeping interest rates low while avoiding debt monetization was just something that wasn't really doable?
(18) Transactions for the open market account are normally handled by any 1 of 4 or 5 persons who maintain constant direct contact between dealers and the account. Transactions for the Treasury, foreign agencies, or member banks are usually handled by an individual on the trading desk who is not one of the persons regularly contacting dealers for information or normally trading for open market account. Thus, the dealers can generally distinguish between agency transactions and those for the open market account on the basis of the origin of the call from the trading desk. There are also other clues in the trading operation which dealers can use in appraising the source of a transaction. At times, however, the regular procedures of the desk may be changed in order to conceal the operations of the open market account. Orders for the account may be channeled through the individual who ordinarily handles foreign agency and member bank business, or those who usually trade for the open market account may take over business to be done for agency or foreign accounts. Pending the weekly report of condition of the Federal Reserve banks, the actual operations of the account may thus be screened from the market or the market may be led to believe that the Federal Open Market Committee was active at a time when it was not.Sounds like the FOMC sometimes wanted to hide what it was doing. They wanted to influence the market without the market knowing that the changing market conditions were coming from the FOMC. Kind of the opposite of forward guidance, I suppose. Instead of influencing the market by telling people what you're intending to do, you influence the market by going undercover and pretending to be ordinary dealers.
(30) The only serious qualification that the subcommittee makes to these generalizations relates to certain deficiencies in the credit facilities available to dealers. During recent months, the rates paid by dealers to carry their portfolios of United States Government securities have averaged above the yield on these portfolios. This amounts to a negative "carry" and obviously affects seriously the ability of the dealer organization to maintain broad markets. This problem has become more serious since the discussions with the dealers. At the time of those discussions, the dealers dealt at length with the problem of negative carry but they were referring, for the most part, to periods of stringency of very limited duration, not to the kind of continuing stringency that prevailed in most of the third quarter of 1952. The subcommittee advances suggestions to correct this deficiency later in the report.This seems like this could be a consequence of the low yields / non-monetization combination. The dealers are holding long positions in Treasuries without being compensated for it. I'm curious how the Fed was even able to get these dealers to hold Treasuries unprofitably in the first place. Was there some kind of arrangement where the price you pay for having the privilege of being a primary dealer is that you have to eat some negative carry sometimes?
(94) * Use of the repurchase facility.—The role occupied by repurchase agreements and the terms of settlement in the technical operations of the Federal Open Market Committee is a subject of considerable controversy within the dealer organization, and many conflicting points of view are present. Recognized nonbank dealers are quick to point out that their bank-dealer competitors have direct access to the Federal Reserve banks and therefore are in a position to borrow at the Reserve banks at the discount rate in order to carry portfolios when money is tight. Nonbank dealers, on the other hand, borrow at the money market banks at rates that frequently rise above the bill rate. A negative "carry" thus develops which makes it expensive and at times prohibitively costly to maintain adequate portfolios. This problem is particularly acute when money is tight over a period of weeks or months, and also when a holiday falls on Friday or Monday, necessitating a 4-day carry. In these circumstances the nonbank dealers are at a serious competitive disadvantage in their ability to make markets. In the endeavor to mitigate this situation, they try to borrow from out-of-town banks and also use credit accommodation from corporations on repurchase agreements.*Ah. Interesting. So the negative carry problem is mostly affecting the non-bank dealers who can't borrow at a low enough rate to profitably fund the holding of T-bills.
(36) In strictly market terms, the inside market, i.e., the market that is reflected on the order books of specialists and dealers, possesses depth when there are orders, either actual orders or orders that can be readily uncovered, both above and below the market. The market has breadth when these orders are in volume and come from widely divergent investor groups. It is resilient when new orders pour promptly into the market to take advantage of sharp and unexpected fluctuations in prices.I think "resiliency" maps most closely onto our concept of liquidity. But it feels like depth and breadth are mainly important because they support resiliency.
(45) When intervention by the Federal Open Market Committee is necessary to carry out the System's monetary policies, the market is least likely to be seriously disturbed if the intervention takes the form of purchases or sales of very short-term Government securities. The dealers now have no confidence that transactions will, in fact, be so limited. In the judgment of the subcommittee, an assurance to that effect, if it could be made, would be reflected in greater depth, breadth, and resiliency in all sectors of the market.Part of the argument here is that mucking around with shorter-dated securities is going to be less disruptive to the money market overall, while still eventually transmitting to prices all along the yield curve. Maybe this makes sense if the FOMC's operations are unpredictable or unexpected. Maybe that's how open market operations felt back in the early '50s, but my sense is that they've become a lot more standardized. There are some countries, like Japan, that have been intervening all across the yield curve for a while now. And everything everywhere has been changing since the 2008 crisis, quantitative easing, and now the corona crisis.
(68) In contrast to this view is the position which holds that debt-management and reserve-banking decisions cannot be separated. While the Treasury is primarily responsible for debt-management decisions, that responsibility under this second view is shared in part by the Federal Reserve System, and while the Federal Reserve is primarily responsible for credit and monetary policy, that responsibility must also be shared by the Treasury. According to this position, the problems of debt management and monetary management are inextricably intermingled, partly in concept but inescapably so in execution. The two responsible agencies are thus considered to be like Siamese twins, each completely independent in arriving at its decisions, and each independent to a considerable degree in its actions, yet each at some point subject to a veto by the other if its actions depart too far from a goal that must be sought as a team. This view was perhaps unconsciously expressed by the two agencies in their announcement of the accord in March 1951. In that announcement they agreed mutually to try to cooperate in seeing that Treasury requirements were met and that monetization of debt was held to a minimum.CMT views the government as a whole as being constrained by price stability of the currency. To maintain an ideal standard of value for the market, the government is not allowed to do anything that would cause inflation or deflation. But, since the Fed is the institution with a mandate for maintaining price stability, at least today, that essentially means that the fiscal authority does what it wants and the Fed's monetary policy is endogenous to fiscal policy, as ultimately constrained by price stability.
(76) The two exceptions should be carefully explained to the market. They would occur (1) in a situation where genuine disorderly conditions had developed to a point where the executive committee felt selling was feeding on itself and might produce panic, and (2) during periods of Treasury financing. In the first case, the Federal Open Market Committee would be expected to enter more decisively in the long-term or intermediate sectors of the market. In the second case, intervention, if any, would be confined to the very short maturities, principally bills. The subcommittee recommends most strongly that the Federal Open Market Committee adopt the necessary measures and give this assurance.By saying that they might need to intervene in the long-term or intermediate sectors of the market, they're basically saying that they might need to do QE someday. They're imagining a scenario in which they need to backstop a panic and act as a dealer of last resort in the markets for government debt. In 2008, liquidity froze up, monetary transmission mechanisms broke down, and the longer-dated securities needed to be backstopped.
(137) In an even more general sense, the Federal Open Market Committee stands in a fiduciary relationship to the whole American economy. It could be called special trustee for the integrity of the dollar, for the preservation of its purchasing power, so far as that integrity can be preserved by its operations. It is especially charged, also, to use its powers to provide an elastic currency for the accommodation of agriculture, commerce, and business; i.e., to promote financial equilibrium and economic stability at high levels of activity.I like this. The economy requires a stable standard currency against which to set prices. If the Fed fails to ensure reasonable enough stability of the dollar, not much else of what they do will matter much. The FOMC faces a price stability constraint.
(138) This unique structure of the Federal Open Market Committee was hammered out after long experience and intense political debate. Like other components of the Federal Reserve System, it exemplifies the unceasing search of the American democracy for forms of organization that combine centralized direction with decentralized control, that provide ample opportunity for hearing to the private interest but that function in the public interest that are government and yet are screened from certain governmental and political pressures since even these may be against the long-run public interest.I'm actually not sure how much the structure of the Fed or the FOMC has changed since this document was written. But it's remarkable how often one of the most well-functioning institutions of our democracy is derided for being "undemocratic."
(142) Should all or part of the staff of the Foreign Open Market Committee be separate and distinct from the staffs of the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks? However paid, should they wear one hat, and one hat only, devoting all their time exclusively to the operations of the Federal Open Market Committee? There are both advantages and dangers in this suggestion which must be weighed. The Federal Reserve System is a family, and the Federal Open Market Committee urgently needs the knowledge, the judgment, and the skill of all the memebrs (sic) of that family. It would be extremely difficult to build up a new and independent staff as qualified as the personnel which It now enlists to work on its problems. It would be equally unfortunate to lose the contributions of that staff to System problems that fall outside the limited area of responsibility of the Federal Open Market Committee. Yet there are equal dangers in a situation where the time of no one person on the whole staff of the Committee is wholly devoted to its responsibilities, where everyone wears two hats, and where each must fulfill duties separate and distinct from those imposed by the Federal Open Market Committee.
It is fully recognized that one major question regarding the feasibility of a present-day call-money post for loans to Government security dealers would be whether lenders could safely depend on it as an adequate, consistent outlet for credit. Could such a call-loan market be large enough and stable enough to be a reliable mechanism for handling the secondary reserve positions of outlying banks? Obviously, a call-loan market of this size would require time for development. Dealers now are carrying positions which are small in relation to the size of the market. Nevertheless, in view of the fact that dealers are making outside arrangements for credit at considerable cost, it may be worth while to explore the possibility that an organized market might again be developed.Unless I'm missing something, my feeling is that the repo market has evolved to fill this role. There's not much difference between a call loan and an overnight loan that perpetually rolls over until you choose to stop.
Read this on the Cryptowatch Changelog.submitted by kraken-lloyd to cryptowatch [link] [comments]
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